Tag: Wheat

Soybean export inspections hit multi-month low

U.S. corn export inspections surged last week, falling short of a fresh marketing-year highs, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. For the week ending Feb. 19, corn movements rose 33 percent from the previous week to 2 million metric tons (MMT), hitting the second-largest volume for the season. Inspections were also…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 23, 2026

U.S. corn export inspections surged last week, falling short of a fresh marketing-year highs, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. For the week ending Feb. 19, corn movements rose 33 percent from the previous week to 2 million metric tons (MMT), hitting the second-largest volume for the season. Inspections were also 72 percent higher than the same week last year.

Japan was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Mexico, South Korea, and Colombia also landed in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 37.74 MMT, up 46 percent year-over-year and continued to run at a record pace.

Soybean export inspections fell 45 percent last week to 669,900 metric tons (MT), hitting the lowest volume in about five months. Shipments were also 24 percent below the same week last year.

China accounted for about half of the inspections. Smaller volumes were also destined for Mexico, Egypt, and Japan. Year-to-date shipments rose to 25.03 MMT, sitting about 32 percent lower than a year ago. Inspections are also running at the slowest pace since the 2018/19 season.

Wheat export inspections rose 42 percent last week to 535,100 MT. Volumes were also 37 percent above the same week last year, as shipments continued to track above the five-year average.

The Philippines was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Nigeria, Bangladesh, and South Korea. Accumulated wheat inspections rose to 18.24 MMT, up 19 percent from the previous season. Shipments are also running at the fastest pace since the 2018/19 season.

U.S. sorghum inspections fell 17 percent last week to 200,300 MT, though volumes were still sharply higher than the same week last year. Total shipments for the season are running 31 percent ahead of last year at 1.93 MMT amid renewed demand from China.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are steady to lower. CORN May corn traded a modest 2.25 cents lower to $4.39 ¾ last week after recovering from Tuesday’s sharp selloff. Spillover strength from the wheat market last week helped…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are steady to lower.

CORN
May corn traded a modest 2.25 cents lower to $4.39 ¾ last week after recovering from Tuesday’s sharp selloff. Spillover strength from the wheat market last week helped corn futures rally on Friday, though the market remains in a sideways range.

U.S. corn exports and sales continued to progress at a favorable pace amid strong demand. Private exporters reported the flash sale of 125,000 MT of corn sold to Colombia for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Weather premium in the markets has been hard to come by with mostly favorable conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that half of Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop was planted as of last week, down from 64 percent a year ago. Progress was right in line with last year in Mato Grosso.

Recent rainfall helped raise Argentina’s corn crop ratings after weeks of declines. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 51 percent of the crop was in good/excellent condition, compared to 42 percent the previous week and 28 percent a year ago.

SOYBEANS
Despite Friday’s volatile trade, May soybean futures managed to finish 4.50 cents higher last week at $11.53 ¼, marking a third consecutive week of gains.

Futures fell heading into the morning session on Monday following the Supreme Court’s decision on Friday to strike down President Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Trump later imposed a 15 percent global tariff on Saturday, but the Supreme Court’s decision could reduce leverage against China, threatening the country’s commitment to buy more U.S. soybeans.

Soybeans in Brazil are trading about $1 higher than U.S. soybeans, so the lack of leverage could disincentivize China from sourcing futures U.S. supplies.

Protesters seized a Cargill export terminal in Brazil’s Amazon region, likely affecting shipments during the country’s prime soybean export season.

AgRural reported that 30 percent of Brazil’s soybean harvest was complete as of last week. Progress was behind last year’s pace of 39 percent due to a slower pace outside of Mato Grosso.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures rallied significantly last week, finishing 31 ¾ cents higher at $5.80 ¼. Thursday and Friday’s trade brought higher open interest, suggesting real buying outside of speculative short-covering.

A strong close above the 200-day moving average for a second day is positive, and a pullback could find technical support.

U.S. wheat exports and sales have been slowing recently. Data for the week ending Feb. 12 showed exports remained 21 percent ahead of last season and are on track to meet the USDA’s target.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn export sales soften last week, soybeans rebound

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Friday showed a step back in weekly corn export sales, though soybean sales posted a slight recovery. For the week ending Feb. 12, net corn sales totaled 1.47 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes were 29 percent lower than the previous week but maintained…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 20, 2026

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Friday showed a step back in weekly corn export sales, though soybean sales posted a slight recovery. For the week ending Feb. 12, net corn sales totaled 1.47 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes were 29 percent lower than the previous week but maintained their seasonal highs. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and Taiwan. Total net sales of 65,700 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Physical exports rose 8 percent from the previous week to 1.63 MMT, led by shipments to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. U.S. corn export commitments are running ahead of last year and the five-year average, supported by demand growth from South Korea, Colombia, and Japan. Cumulative exports and commitments are still running 30 percent ahead of the previous season at 62.27 MMT.

U.S. soybean export sales rose sharply after hitting a marketing-year low the previous week. Volumes rose to 798,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/26. China remained the No. 1 buyer, followed by Egypt and Japan. Total net sales of 66,000 MT for 2026/27 were for unknown destinations.

Weekly exports rose 14 percent to 1.29 MMT. China was the top destination, followed by Egypt and Mexico. Total exports and commitments for the current marketing year are still running nearly 19 percent behind the previous season, despite China partially returning to the market. Total commitments reached 83 percent of the USDA’s target.

Soybean meal export sales rose 35 percent from the previous week to 480,900 MT for 2025/26, led by demand from Colombia and Mexico. Total exports and commitments reached 11.48 MMT, up 10 percent from the previous season.

Wheat export sales during the week ending Feb. 12 fell 41 percent from the previous week to 288,000 MT. Volumes fell to a five-week low and were slightly below the five-year average for the week. Mexico was the No. 1 buyer for the week. The Philippines, the Dominican Republic, and Colombia were also among the top five buyers. Net sales of 18,500 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Colombia (14,500 MT) and Mexico (4,000 MT).

Weekly exports fell 44 percent to 322,600 MT. Japan was the top destination for the week, followed by Mexico and the Dominican Republic. Total exports and commitments reached 22.76 MMT, sitting 15 percent higher than a year ago. Commitments are also at 93 percent of the USDA’s target, which is about on par with the previous season and the five-year average.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 20, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady following Thursday’s gains. Crude oil is slightly lower after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Stock futures are lower. CORN Corn futures traded mostly steady on Thursday after losing 0.50 cents to close at $4.36 ¼. Corn has been the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 20, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady following Thursday’s gains. Crude oil is slightly lower after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
Corn futures traded mostly steady on Thursday after losing 0.50 cents to close at $4.36 ¼. Corn has been the lagging market among the grains and oilseeds after failing to climb back into their old trading range last week.

Futures have largely ignored surging crude oil prices, which hit a fresh eight-month high on Thursday. Surging oil prices may help ethanol consumption, though gas prices remain low.

U.S. ethanol production inched higher last week, averaging 1.118 million barrels a day, according to the EIA on Thursday. Production was 3.1 percent higher than the same week last year and a record for the week.

U.S. Census data released on Thursday showed that ethanol exports hit a record 2.18 billion gallons in 2025. That was a record for a second year in a row, increasing 12.6 percent from 2024. Exports have been the primary growth driver for U.S. ethanol production over the past year.

SOYBEANS
May soybeans continued to consolidate at their three-month highs, rising 7 cents to $11.56 on Thursday, bumping up to the upper end of their range.

Technically, soybean futures have been well overbought, but multiple rounds of bullish news have kept the market bulls in the driver’s seat.

Balance sheets for the 2026/27 marketing year released during the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed that the USDA is expecting large volumes of soybean oil used for domestic biofuel production.

Soybean oil used for biofuel is expected to hit a record 17.3 billion pounds, up from the current year’s forecast of 14.8 billion. Significantly larger RVOs from the EPA are expected to continue increasing demand for soybeans and soybean oil.

Soybean oil futures are likely acknowledging the potential demand after surging again on Thursday to fresh highs.

China returning from the Lunar New Year next week could lead to additional soybean purchases after a quiet week.

WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures posted impressive gains on Thursday, with the May contract rallying 14.25 cents higher to $5.66 ¾ a bushel.

Surprisingly, open interest and volume were higher for the session, suggesting actual buying rather than speculative short-covering. Clearing the $5.75 level could open the way for a test of psychological resistance around $6.

Both winter wheat categories were able to clear the 200-day moving average to close out the week.

Drought coverage for winter wheat areas continued to expand over the past week. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that 45 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas were experiencing drought, compared to 22 percent a year ago.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA releases preliminary 2026 acreage numbers

The USDA kicked off its 2026 Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday. Part of the annual meeting includes a preliminary look into the upcoming growing season including acres. The USDA projects corn acreage to fall nearly 5 percent this year to 94 million acres, normalizing from the lofty 98.8 million reported in the previous season. The…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 19, 2026

The USDA kicked off its 2026 Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday. Part of the annual meeting includes a preliminary look into the upcoming growing season including acres.

The USDA projects corn acreage to fall nearly 5 percent this year to 94 million acres, normalizing from the lofty 98.8 million reported in the previous season. The average yield forecast was pinned at 183 bushels per acre, up from the typical February guess of 181 following record yields reported this past season.

The agency left its 2026/27 corn ethanol use unchanged at 5.6 billion bushels based on unchanged motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual usage was reduced to 6 billion bushels, down 200 million from the current season.

Exports were reduced by 200 million bushels to 3.1 billion. U.S. global trade share is expected to decline slightly on larger competitor exports from South America and modest global demand growth.

Meanwhile, soybean acreage is expected to rise 4.7 percent to 85 million acres. The USDA said expectations for higher soybean acres this spring reflect stronger profitability compared to other crops, as well as normal crop rotations.

The USDA acknowledged higher mandates for the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027. While not finalized, the agency is assuming the use of soybean oil for biofuel will rise in 2026/27, increasing the soybean oil price forecast.

The USDA noted that the forecast in future WASDE reports will be evaluated based on the final RVO rule after its release. Soybean exports are expected to recover next season on the assumption of higher shipments to China. However, the share of U.S. exports in the global market is expected to continue its long-term downward trend due to growing South American supplies.

Wheat acreage is seen declining slightly to 45 million, compared to 45.3 million seen last year. The USDA said combined spring and durum wheat acres are expected to shift slightly in the Northern Plains to prioritize soybeans.

Domestic wheat use is expected to remain unchanged in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, export expectations were lowered by 100 million bushels from the current season. The USDA noted that larger competition from Argentina and Australia will likely challenge U.S. shipments. Additionally, supplies from the Northern Hemisphere in Russia, the EU, and Canada will likely increase competition.

Thursday’s acreage numbers serve as a starting point for the USDA’s outlooks moving forward. The agency will issue its first survey-based acreage estimates in its March Prospective Plantings report at the end of next month.

Additionally, the USDA won’t revisit these balance sheets until the May WASDE report.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 19, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar extended its gains overnight and has been advancing since hitting a four-year low in January. Crude oil is also up sharply and posted a fresh 8-month high. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn edged higher on Wednesday following the selloff…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 19, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar extended its gains overnight and has been advancing since hitting a four-year low in January. Crude oil is also up sharply and posted a fresh 8-month high. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
May corn edged higher on Wednesday following the selloff from the previous session. Futures gained a cent to close at $4.36 ¾. Open interest has been steady as traders roll positions over from the March contract.

The USDA’s Ag Outlook forum that kicked off this morning showed the agency’s outlook for 2026 corn plantings fell to 94 million acres, down nearly 5 percent from last year’s 98.8 million. That was the lower than average analyst guess of 95 million acres from a Bloomberg survey.

Corn ending stocks are also projected to tighten next season to 1.837 billion bushels, down 13.6 percent from the current carryout forecast.

Scattered showers are expected to continue in Central Brazil, favoring the developing Safrinha corn crop.

SOYBEANS
Another steady finish to soybeans on Wednesday despite a larger trading day. May soybeans finished 0.25 cents higher to close at $11.49. Futures have been largely consolidating since hitting a three-month high last week.

Soybean oil futures have been leading the way to contract highs on expectations of favorable biofuel quotas from the EPA. Those finalized mandates are expected to be released in the near future.

The EPA signaled in a proposal last year that it would significantly raise biomass diesel blending quotas, heavily favoring domestic soybean oil usage.

The USDA’s commodity outlook showed a 4.7 percent increase in 2026 soybean plantings to 85 million acres. The estimate aligned with the average analyst guess. Higher acreage is expected to raise the ending stocks slightly compared to the current season.

WHEAT
Wheat futures continued to lead the grain complex this week. May Chicago wheat traded another 10 cents higher on Wednesday to close at $5.52 ½. Positive momentum continued overnight amid weather and geopolitical risks.

Prices were contained by the 200-day moving average just above $5.60. That level could continue to contain prices if bullish news fails to take hold.

Warmer weather and high winds are expected for much of the Central and Southern Plains, increasing fire risks.

Peace talks fell through between Russia and Ukraine this week, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged war between the two countries that has already been going on for four years.

U.S. wheat acreage is expected to decline by 0.7 percent this year, with 2026 plantings at 45 million acres. That was higher than market expectations that had expected a slightly larger decline.

The International Grains Council lowered its 2025/26 global wheat stockpile estimate to 282 MMT, down 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The IGC’s initial 2026/27 forecast is calling for a slightly tighter balance sheet due to reduced harvests and higher grain consumption.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Trader PhD survey predicts more soybean acres, strong corn plantings

U.S. crop farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, bringing 2026 acreage expectations into the spotlight. The recent rally in the soybean market in February could help drive more acres to soybeans, but normal crop rotation will likely remain the primary driver. That would bring some acres out of corn after the USDA…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 18, 2026

U.S. crop farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, bringing 2026 acreage expectations into the spotlight. The recent rally in the soybean market in February could help drive more acres to soybeans, but normal crop rotation will likely remain the primary driver. That would bring some acres out of corn after the USDA estimated plantings at a lofty 98.8 million acres in the 2025 growing season.

Trader PhD released its February 2026 acreage survey results with the expectation of corn acres normalizing to some extent this season. Sixty-two percent of respondents said their planting decisions were based on their normal crop rotation. Crop prices were the No. 2 reason (18 percent) for planting decisions.

CORN
Corn acreage is falling 1.4 percent year-over-year to 97.3 million acres. While the overall acreage is lower, plantings are expected to remain heavy compared to previous years.

Midwestern states largely saw a modest shift from corn acreage to soybeans, with the exception of Illinois. Better indemnity payments and yield potential were among the reasons for growing more corn among respondents who didn’t indicate normal crop rotation as the primary reason.

The January Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed farmers still have plenty of corn stored following last year’s harvest. But record corn exports and use for ethanol paint a better outlook for the demand picture compared to other crops.

SOYBEANS
U.S. soybean plantings are seen rising 3.5 percent to just 84.2 million acres in 2026, pulling acres from other crops rather than just corn. Soybean prices have performed substantially better over the past few months on expectations of better demand from China since the U.S. and China entered a trade truce in late October.

The Midwest is expected to drive higher soybean acreage, though Mississippi also could see a larger shift from corn to soybeans. The outlier was Kansas, which saw a shift from soybeans and wheat acreage to corn.

Basis levels remain stronger in the Eastern Ag Belt and along the Mississippi River due to lower exports to China.

WHEAT
All wheat acreage is seen falling 7.3 percent to 42.2 million acres, the lowest on record for data going back to 1919. U.S. wheat acreage has been trending lower over the past decade. U.S. wheat has struggled to compete in the export market among other global competitors, easily leading to higher stocks.

The survey showed a sharp reduction in plantings in winter wheat areas, which counters the higher estimate from the USDA’s Winter Wheat Plantings report in January. Spring wheat plantings in North Dakota were seen 18 percent lower than last year. Poor crop prices were likely a driver. Among respondents who said they decreased their wheat acreage significantly, crop prices were the primary reason for this year’s planting decisions.

Cotton was omitted from the survey due to minimal responses in past surveys that led to inconclusive results. Trader PhD will conduct another producer survey ahead of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report at the end of March.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 18, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its move higher. Crude oil rose sharply overnight. Stock futures were also higher. CORN Corn futures retreated from last week’s gains on Tuesday, falling 6.25 cents to $4.35 ¼ for the May contract. Traders continued to roll positions…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 18, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its move higher. Crude oil rose sharply overnight. Stock futures were also higher.

CORN
Corn futures retreated from last week’s gains on Tuesday, falling 6.25 cents to $4.35 ¼ for the May contract. Traders continued to roll positions over between the March and May contracts.

Disappointing price action on Tuesday may be suggesting money managers are electing to hold onto shorts leading up to first notice day.

The USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum will be held on Thursday and Friday, with the agency releasing its preliminary balance sheets for the 2026/27 season. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the USDA to predict corn acres at 95 million, down from last year’s final estimate of 98.8 million.

Whatever numbers the USDA releases tomorrow will likely change in the March Prospective Plantings report. Cobank expects a larger reduction in corn plantings to 94 million, while soybean acres rebound to 86 million.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures held onto their gains to start the week after trading steadily higher and closing just below $11.50 on the May contract. Prices hit a fresh three-month high overnight, as export inspection data and crush data on Tuesday exceeded expectations.

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 221.6 million bushels of soybeans in January, up 10.6 percent year-over-year, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association on Tuesday. Year-to-date crushings for the season are running 11 percent ahead of the previous marketing year.

Soybean oil futures have been surging over the past month and a half despite rising soybean oil inventories. May soybean oil posted fresh contract highs again overnight. The prospect of higher demand likely has prices pushing to new highs.

Sources told Reuters that the EPA could send proposed 2026 blending quotas to the White House this week, which aligns with the expectation of the final rule being published by the end of March.

Tomorrow’s USDA Ag Outlook numbers are expected to show 2026 soybean planting forecast at 85 million acres, up from 81.2 million last year.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures retested the 100-day moving average again on Tuesday. Prices closed below the level but recovered a fair amount of losses to finish 6 cents lower at $5.42 ¼.

The recovery extended into the overnight session, with prices mostly reversing yesterday’s losses so far. Prices may continue to face pressure closer to $5.60, which is just below the 200-day moving average.

Wheat export inspections continued at a decent pace last week. Export inspections fell 35 percent from the previous week to 375,400 MT. However, volumes were still about 50 percent higher than the same week last year. Accumulated shipments remain 19 percent ahead of last year.

Tomorrow’s USDA Ag Outlook numbers are expected to show 2026 wheat planting at 44.7 million, down from 45.3 last year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 17, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday morning following the extended holiday weekend. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher. Crude oil is mostly steady. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn is starting the week under pressure from wheat and the rally in the U.S. dollar. Futures had traded higher for a second week after…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 17, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday morning following the extended holiday weekend. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher. Crude oil is mostly steady. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
May corn is starting the week under pressure from wheat and the rally in the U.S. dollar. Futures had traded higher for a second week after gaining a modest 3.25 cents by Friday’s close.

Prices could still face pressure after failing to climb back in their old trading range for a second time last week. Current resistance is around $4.44.

Strong export demand remains a highlight for the market. U.S. corn prices have been very competitive compared to global competitors, increasing its share in the marketplace.

Brazil’s safrinha corn planting reached 46 percent complete in Mato Grosso. Progress was below the five-year average but remained slightly above last year’s pace.

SOYBEANS
May soybean futures are trying to hold onto key levels to start this week after climbing another 19.75 cents last week. Optimism over demand from China kept the bulls in charge.

Managed money dramatically extends its net long position. Funds were buyers of nearly 95,000 contracts in the latest Commitment of Traders report, bringing the total position to a net long of 123,000 contracts.

The Brazilian soybean harvest continued to progress above year-ago levels last week, with 50 percent of the crop harvested.

Weather models turned drier for Southern Argentina again. Buenos Aires is expected to receive below-average precipitation for the next 2 weeks. The Rosario Board of Trade said rainfall over the next 10 to 15 days will be crucial. Issues could go unnoticed with the large crop coming out of Brazil.

WHEAT
Wheat futures pushed sharply lower overnight, extending Friday’s selloff. May KC wheat had traded above the 200-day moving average last week but failed to hold above the key level.

Futures had an impressive rally to multi-month highs, driven by speculative short-covering. Gains were likely capped by bearish fundamentals weighing on the complex.

Russian-based research firm SovEcon raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 85.9 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from the previous estimate.

India announced on Friday that it will allow 2.5 MMT of wheat to be exported. The move was to appease farmers in the country who have been protesting the recent trade agreement with the U.S.

France’s winter wheat crop conditions are at a three-year high, helping production rebound from the previous year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 13, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher. Crude oil is steady following Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are slightly lower after plunging yesterday. CORN March corn futures posted modest gains on Thursday, rising 3.75 cents to close at $4.31 ¼ a bushel. May corn futures…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 13, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher. Crude oil is steady following Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are slightly lower after plunging yesterday.

CORN
March corn futures posted modest gains on Thursday, rising 3.75 cents to close at $4.31 ¼ a bushel. May corn futures have been showing more life with open interest and volume rising substantially with this week’s gains.

Lawmakers are still working on a solution to push year-round sales of E15 through Congress. While this would be good for corn demand, ethanol production has been able to grow without the help of E15, largely due to exports. Higher blends in the U.S. would likely shift supplies back to the domestic market.

One more note on the February WASDE and U.S. corn demand: As the USDA raised corn exports by 100 million bushels, it also lowered Ukraine’s corn export forecast. U.S. corn prices have been the most competitive for much of the past year, and that has likely been taking a larger piece of the export pie from other countries.

SOYBEANS
The short squeeze in the soybean market continued again on Thursday, with March prices rising 3.25 cents to $11.37 ¼ a bushel. Prices briefly traded above last week’s highs. There may be some profit-taking to close the week after such a strong rally.

The soybean market seems to be more confident of higher demand for exports and domestic crushings. Last week’s news about China potentially buying more U.S. soy and the 45Z announcement continued to shake out shorts this week.

Soybean oil prices are lower to start this morning, but the market likely remains optimistic that the recent trade deal with India could spur more exports to the country. India has been increasing its imports of U.S. soyoil due to tightening palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia.

Attention is shifting to next week’s Ag Outlook Forum and what the agency will initially predict for acres this season.

WHEAT
Chicago wheat was the clear leader of the grains again on Thursday after the March contract traded 15.25 cents higher to close at $5.52 ¼. Futures posted a strong close above the 100-day moving average for a second session.

Speculative short-covering appears to be dominating this week’s trade. Prices traded up to resistance levels, including the 200-day moving average.

Wheat production in Western Australia totaled 13.3 MMT, the second-highest on record, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia.

Ukraine’s wheat exports for the first half of the 2025/26 season are running 20 percent behind a year ago. Much of that is because of higher tariffs for products shipped to the EU.

FranceAgriMer cuts non-EU soft wheat export forecast by 300,000 tons due to increased competition from Argentina.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn export sales surge last week, beans lag

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed continued strength in U.S. corn sales, while soybean sales slumped. For the week ending Feb. 5, net corn sales totaled 2.07 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes were nearly double the previous week, led by buying from Japan, South Korea, and Colombia.…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 12, 2026

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed continued strength in U.S. corn sales, while soybean sales slumped. For the week ending Feb. 5, net corn sales totaled 2.07 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes were nearly double the previous week, led by buying from Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. New crop sales for 2025/26 totaled 60,000 metric tons (MT), reported for Japan.

Weekly exports rose 32 percent from the previous week to 1.51 MMT. Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. U.S. corn export commitments are running ahead of last year and the five-year average, supported by demand growth from South Korea, Colombia, and Japan. Cumulative exports and commitments are still running 31 percent ahead of the previous season.

Additionally, commitments reached 72.5 percent of the USDA’s target pace after the agency raised the forecast by 2.54 MMT (100 million bushels) on Tuesday. The current pace is still running ahead of last year’s pace despite the upward adjustment, suggesting a future increase may be warranted.

U.S. soybean export sales fell sharply last week to 281,800 MT, hitting a marketing-year low for the current season. China was still the largest buyer for the week, though sales were well below volumes seen just a month ago. Total net sales of 1,300 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Weekly exports fell 19 percent to 1.13 MMT. China was the top destination, followed by Egypt and the Netherlands.

Total exports and commitments for the current marketing year are still running nearly 20 percent behind the previous season despite China partially returning to the market. Total commitments make up about 81 percent of the USDA’s current target, which is 8 percent below the five-year average, suggesting a possible downward revision in the current forecast.

U.S. soybean export sales slowed dramatically over the past few weeks after China reportedly fulfilled their 12 MMT pledge. President Trump reported last week that China is considering buying another 8 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. before the end of the season.

Wheat export sales during the week ending Feb. 5 rose 31 percent from the previous week to 488,000 MT. The Philippines was the top buyer, followed closely by Mexico. Indonesia, Japan, and Bangladesh also landed in the top five. Net sales of 13,900 MT for 2026/27 were reported for the Philippines and Colombia.

Weekly exports rose 44 percent to 580,000 MT, led by shipments to the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Total exports and commitments reached 22.31 MMT, up 16 percent from the previous season. Commitments reached 91 percent of the USDA’s target, which is about on par with the previous season and the five-year average.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 11, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower. Crude oil is sharply higher and retesting highs from late January. Stock futures are higher amid strong labor data. CORN March corn finished unchanged at $4.28 ¾ yesterday following the USDA’s WASDE report. The USDA surprised the trade…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 11, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower. Crude oil is sharply higher and retesting highs from late January. Stock futures are higher amid strong labor data.

CORN
March corn finished unchanged at $4.28 ¾ yesterday following the USDA’s WASDE report.

The USDA surprised the trade with a sharp increase in the export forecast, pulling ending stocks lower than expected. We made the argument for an increase in the export forecast last week, given the previous pace before the report.

The 2025/26 carryout is now less burdensome, but it is by no means bullish due to strong supplies. That is likely why the price action was disappointing to some after corn struggled to hold onto gains from the day.

The USDA confirmed on Wednesday the flash sale of 230,560 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers.

Conab will release its updated Brazilian corn crop forecast on Thursday, where a small increase is expected for the production estimate.

SOYBEANS
Speculative short-covering continued in the soybean market this week and seemed to be unhindered by yesterday’s WASDE report. March soybeans traded another 11.75 cents higher on Tuesday to close at $11.22 ½ a bushel.

Open interest dropped by 22,400 in the March contract alone. The path of least resistance remains up for the meantime following last week’s upside breakout.

President Trump and Xi officially confirmed an in-person meeting in April. The USDA offered no changes to the U.S. balance sheet based on the potential of China buying more U.S. beans. The agency said increases in purchases from China will likely be offset by lower demand from the rest of the world.

The USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 180 MMT, up 2 MMT from the previous estimate. The market has been unable to grab a hold of a bullish weather story out of South America due to strong production estimates.

Conab is expected to raise its soybean production forecast tomorrow after lowering it last month. The USDA is currently about 4 MMT higher on its forecast compared to Conab.

WHEAT
Wheat futures struggled to hold onto their gains on Tuesday following the WASDE. Still, March Chicago wheat closed only 0.50 cents lower at $5.28 ¼. Prices had moved higher again during the overnight session but ran into selling pressure at the 100-day moving average.

The USDA left the U.S. balance sheet mostly unchanged this month after raising the 2025/26 ending stocks forecast by 5 million bushels to 931 million. Stocks are projected to rise 9 percent compared to a year ago.

U.S. wheat export demand remains good, but it has struggled to offset large U.S. supplies amid strong global competition. The global balance sheet tightened up slightly from last month. World ending stocks are still projected to be the highest in about five years.

The market continues to monitor soil moisture in the U.S. Plains. Much of the South is expected to receive heavier rainfall over the next few days, which could extend into winter wheat areas.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.