Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday morning following the extended holiday weekend. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher. Crude oil is mostly steady. Stock futures are lower.
CORN
May corn is starting the week under pressure from wheat and the rally in the U.S. dollar. Futures had traded higher for a second week after gaining a modest 3.25 cents by Friday’s close.
Prices could still face pressure after failing to climb back in their old trading range for a second time last week. Current resistance is around $4.44.
Strong export demand remains a highlight for the market. U.S. corn prices have been very competitive compared to global competitors, increasing its share in the marketplace.
Brazil’s safrinha corn planting reached 46 percent complete in Mato Grosso. Progress was below the five-year average but remained slightly above last year’s pace.
SOYBEANS
May soybean futures are trying to hold onto key levels to start this week after climbing another 19.75 cents last week. Optimism over demand from China kept the bulls in charge.
Managed money dramatically extends its net long position. Funds were buyers of nearly 95,000 contracts in the latest Commitment of Traders report, bringing the total position to a net long of 123,000 contracts.
The Brazilian soybean harvest continued to progress above year-ago levels last week, with 50 percent of the crop harvested.
Weather models turned drier for Southern Argentina again. Buenos Aires is expected to receive below-average precipitation for the next 2 weeks. The Rosario Board of Trade said rainfall over the next 10 to 15 days will be crucial. Issues could go unnoticed with the large crop coming out of Brazil.
WHEAT
Wheat futures pushed sharply lower overnight, extending Friday’s selloff. May KC wheat had traded above the 200-day moving average last week but failed to hold above the key level.
Futures had an impressive rally to multi-month highs, driven by speculative short-covering. Gains were likely capped by bearish fundamentals weighing on the complex.
Russian-based research firm SovEcon raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 85.9 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from the previous estimate.
India announced on Friday that it will allow 2.5 MMT of wheat to be exported. The move was to appease farmers in the country who have been protesting the recent trade agreement with the U.S.
France’s winter wheat crop conditions are at a three-year high, helping production rebound from the previous year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.