Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its move higher. Crude oil rose sharply overnight. Stock futures were also higher.
CORN
Corn futures retreated from last week’s gains on Tuesday, falling 6.25 cents to $4.35 ¼ for the May contract. Traders continued to roll positions over between the March and May contracts.
Disappointing price action on Tuesday may be suggesting money managers are electing to hold onto shorts leading up to first notice day.
The USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum will be held on Thursday and Friday, with the agency releasing its preliminary balance sheets for the 2026/27 season. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the USDA to predict corn acres at 95 million, down from last year’s final estimate of 98.8 million.
Whatever numbers the USDA releases tomorrow will likely change in the March Prospective Plantings report. Cobank expects a larger reduction in corn plantings to 94 million, while soybean acres rebound to 86 million.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures held onto their gains to start the week after trading steadily higher and closing just below $11.50 on the May contract. Prices hit a fresh three-month high overnight, as export inspection data and crush data on Tuesday exceeded expectations.
U.S. oilseed processors crushed 221.6 million bushels of soybeans in January, up 10.6 percent year-over-year, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association on Tuesday. Year-to-date crushings for the season are running 11 percent ahead of the previous marketing year.
Soybean oil futures have been surging over the past month and a half despite rising soybean oil inventories. May soybean oil posted fresh contract highs again overnight. The prospect of higher demand likely has prices pushing to new highs.
Sources told Reuters that the EPA could send proposed 2026 blending quotas to the White House this week, which aligns with the expectation of the final rule being published by the end of March.
Tomorrow’s USDA Ag Outlook numbers are expected to show 2026 soybean planting forecast at 85 million acres, up from 81.2 million last year.
WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures retested the 100-day moving average again on Tuesday. Prices closed below the level but recovered a fair amount of losses to finish 6 cents lower at $5.42 ¼.
The recovery extended into the overnight session, with prices mostly reversing yesterday’s losses so far. Prices may continue to face pressure closer to $5.60, which is just below the 200-day moving average.
Wheat export inspections continued at a decent pace last week. Export inspections fell 35 percent from the previous week to 375,400 MT. However, volumes were still about 50 percent higher than the same week last year. Accumulated shipments remain 19 percent ahead of last year.
Tomorrow’s USDA Ag Outlook numbers are expected to show 2026 wheat planting at 44.7 million, down from 45.3 last year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.