Tag: Wheat

USDA exports – Nigeria buys wheat June 30, 2026

June 30, 2026 The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 100,000 MT of hard red spring wheat sold to Nigeria for the 2026/27 marketing year. June 29, 2026 The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2026/27 marketing year. June 23, 2026 The USDA confirmed the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

June 30, 2026

June 30, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 100,000 MT of hard red spring wheat sold to Nigeria for the 2026/27 marketing year.

June 29, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2026/27 marketing year.

June 23, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 100,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico. Of the total, 30,000 MT are for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 70,000 MT are for 2026/27.

June 18, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. Another 120,000 MT of soybeans were sold to unknown buyers for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The USDA also reported the flash sale of 285,775 MT of corn to Mexico for the 2026/27 marketing year.

June 17, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 372,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown buyers. Of the total, 60,000 MT were for delivery for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 312,000 MT were for 2026/27.

June 9, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 120,000 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.

June 8, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The USDA also reported the flash sale of 103,000 MT of corn sold to Japan. Of the total, 40,000 MT are for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 63,000 MT are for 2026/27.

June 5, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 190,000 MT of soybean meal sold to the Philippines for the 2025/26 marketing year.

June 3, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 115,000 MT of corn sold to Colombia for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The USDA also reported the flash sale of 136,000 MT of corn sold to South Korea for 2026/27.

May 29, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 192,000 MT of soybeans to unknown buyers. Of the total, 60,000 MT are for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 132,000 MT are for 2026/27.

May 22, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 493,700 MT of corn sold to Mexico. Of the total, 225,000 MT were for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 268,700 MT were for 2026/27. Unknown buyers bought 110,000 MT of corn. Of the total, 50,000 MT were for 2025/26, and 60,000 MT were for 2026/27.

The USDA also reported the flash sale of 252,000 MT of soybean cake and meal sold to unknown buyers. Of the total, 117,000 MT were for 2025/26, and 135,000 MT were for 2026/27.

May 15, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 155,000 MT of soybean meal sold to Italy for the 2025/26 marketing year.

May 14, 2026

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 252,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown buyers. Of the total, 120,000 MT were for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 132,000 MT were for 2026/27.

May 11, 2026

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 380,000 MT of corn to Mexico. Of the total, 220,000 MT are for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 160,000 MT are for 2026/27. Additionally, South Korea bought 128,000 MT for 2025/26.

May 1, 2026

Private exporters reported the flash sales of 148,240 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers. Of the total, 78,240 MT were for 2025/26, and 70,000 MT were for 2026/27.

April 22, 2026

Private exporters reported the flash sales of 130,000 MT of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

April 21, 2026

Private exporters reported the flash sales of 100,000 MT of corn sold to Colombia for the 2025/26 marketing year and 195,000 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers for 2025/26.

April 14, 2026

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 316,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico. Of the total, 65,000 MT were for the 2025/26 marketing year, 139,000 MT are for 2026/27, and 112,000 MT are for 2027/28.

Unknown destinations also bought 120,000 MT of corn for 2025/26.

April 10, 2026

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 125,640 MT for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 100,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Italy for 2025/26.

April 9, 2026

Private exporters announced on Thursday the flash sale of 136,000 MT of corn sold to South Korea for the 2025/26 marketing year.

March 30, 2026

Private exporters announced the flash sale of 145,000 MT of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

March 27, 2026

Private exporters announced the flash sale of 105,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

March 23, 2026

Private exporters announced the flash sale of 102,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year. Another 161,120 MT of corn were announced for Mexico for 2025/26.

March 18, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year.

March 4, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 125,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

March 3, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 196,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

February 27, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 257,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

February 26, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 178,000 MT of corn for delivery to Japan. Of the total, 154,000 MT is for the 2026/27 marketing year, and 24,000 MT is for 2027/28.

February 23, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 125,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia for the 2025/26 marketing year.

February 12, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 108,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Egypt for the 2025/26 marketing year.

February 11, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 230,560 MT of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year.

February 9, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China for the 2025/26 marketing year.

February 4, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 130,480 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

January 27, 2026

Private exporters reported the sales of 110,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 306,000 MT of sorghum for delivery to unknown destinations for 2025/2026.

January 22, 2026

Private exporters reported sales of 192,350 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

January 21, 2026

Private exporters reported the sales of 150,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 195,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for 2025/26.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA to release official new crop balance sheets Tuesday

The USDA will release its May WASDE report on Tuesday, updating its old crop forecasts and releasing the official forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year. Old crop corn demand in focus Starting with corn, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts a slight increase in the 2025/26 U.S. carryout forecast. Ending stocks are expected to…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

May 11, 2026

The USDA will release its May WASDE report on Tuesday, updating its old crop forecasts and releasing the official forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Old crop corn demand in focus
Starting with corn, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts a slight increase in the 2025/26 U.S. carryout forecast. Ending stocks are expected to remain above 2 billion bushels, which doesn’t seem out of line, even with the strong demand outlook.

There is room for the USDA to raise its export forecast, given the strong pace of sales and shipments. We discussed the possibility in a previous commentary. The question is whether a potential increase in exports will be offset by a decline in the corn ethanol or feed and residual usage categories.

Related Post: Could the USDA raise its corn export forecast again?

One theme remains apparent: demand is strong, but so were last year’s supplies.

Looking at the new crop balance sheet, 2026/27 corn ending stocks are expected to start off lower than 2 billion bushels. The average analyst guess pins tomorrow’s forecast at 1.942 billion bushels, 185 million bushels less than the current old crop forecast.

The USDA will likely bring in the trendline yield estimate of 183 bushels per acre, with corn production expected to fall about 1 billion bushels from last year’s record to 15.99 billion.

Demand is a question mark. Higher corn prices could lead to some demand rationing, challenging record corn exports and feed usage this season.

Brazil and Argentina’s corn production forecasts are expected to increase this month. The average analyst guess pins the Argentina outlook 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) higher at 55.3 MMT. Earlier this month, the Foreign Agricultural Service raised its post outlook to 61 MMT, making an increase very likely.

Brazil’s production is expected to increase by about 1 MMT from April to 133.3 MMT. Drier conditions have been emerging, but private and government forecasters have been reluctant to lower estimates.

Soybean carryouts a mixed bag
The 2025/26 soybean balance sheet is expected to show virtually no change to the carryout forecast. Soybean exports could decline further, with crush demand potentially offsetting those reductions. That would leave the forecast unchanged at 350 million bushels.

Total export commitments are running 18 percent lower than the previous season, which is in line with the current forecast. Positive developments for exports to China may carry over to the new marketing year, considering seasonal trends.

The new crop balance sheet is not expected to be bullish. The 2026/27 carryout is expected to increase 16 million bushels from the current season forecast to 366 million bushels.

Soybean production for 2026/27 is expected to increase by 185 million bushels to 4.45 billion. Again, the average yield will likely come in at the trendline of 53 bushels per acre.

World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged from last month. New crop stocks could increase slightly.

Wheat production to drag new crop stocks lower
The old crop 2025/26 ending stocks for all wheat are expected to be mostly unchanged at 938 million bushels this month. Total export commitments are above the USDA’s target, but shipments will have to remain strong, or they will get carried over to the next season.

Eyes will be on the agency’s wheat production numbers. The average analyst guess from the Bloomberg survey pins all wheat production at 1.747 billion bushels, down 238 million from the previous season. That may be a conservative estimate if abandonment rates are higher due to severe drought in the Plains.

The new crop 2026/27 ending stocks are expected to decline by 93 million bushels from the current season to 845 million. That would be the first year-over-year decline in the carryout since the 2022/23 season.

Global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to be unchanged from April. New crop stocks could decline slightly due to expectations of lower global production.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Read more news and analysis here.
Morning Grain Comments – March 31, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed again on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower but held above $100 on the index. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures attempted to recover again overnight after failing to hold onto gains yesterday. CORN May corn traded sharply lower on Monday, losing 6 cents to close…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 31, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed again on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower but held above $100 on the index. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures attempted to recover again overnight after failing to hold onto gains yesterday.

CORN
May corn traded sharply lower on Monday, losing 6 cents to close at $4.67 ½.

The corn market has been pricing in bearish numbers ahead of the grains stocks and planting intentions reports. Higher-than-expected stocks and acreage numbers could lead to long liquidation in the market.

Front-month May futures are currently trading at support levels ahead of the report. A bounce above $4.65 could be positive.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported last week that corn harvest progress reached 15.2 percent. Rainfall slowed progress recently, but early yield reports are being reported as fair. More than three-quarters of the crop are rated in good to excellent condition.

SOYBEANS
May soybeans traded a modest 0.50 cents lower on Monday to $11.59 ¾. Prices continued to consolidate ahead of today’s reports. Resistance is around $11.80

Soybean oil posted fresh contract highs on Monday, supported by higher crude oil. Soybean meal prices have been struggling to hold onto gains but have been working to trend higher since February.

Today’s reports are expected to show higher soybean acres compared to last year. The question is how many acres did soybeans buy after the recent run-up in prices.

Soybean crop conditions have improved slightly in Argentina, with 81 percent of the crop rated normal to excellent after recent rainfall. Argentinian farmers have just started harvesting first-crop soybeans, though not in full force.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat traded slightly higher on Monday after rising 2 cents to close at $6.07. Prices have been consolidating around $6 over the past few weeks since hitting multi-month highs earlier this month.

Pre-report expectations call for lower wheat acreage for this season. A bearish surprise would include the USDA keeping wheat acres steady or raising them slightly compared to a year ago.

Outside of today’s reports, weather remains a focus for the wheat emerging from dormancy. Winter wheat conditions further deteriorated over the past week amid lackluster rainfall for much of the Plains.

Forty percent of Kansas’ crop was in good/excellent condition as of last week, down 6 percent from the previous week. Oklahoma’s ratings ticked lower by a percentage point to 13 percent good/excellent. Nebraska and South Dakota’s ratings fell by 9 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Montan was the only state with winter wheat conditions improving.

Government models expect rainfall to reach key HRW wheat areas in Oklahoma, Texas, and South Dakota this week that need moisture. Plentiful rainfall and possible storms are expected to hit SRW wheat areas as well.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 30, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil jumped again overnight and is trading above $100 a barrel. Stock futures posted a relief rally overnight after breaking below support levels on Friday. CORN Front-month May corn futures fell 3.50 cents last week to $4.62 a…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 30, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil jumped again overnight and is trading above $100 a barrel. Stock futures posted a relief rally overnight after breaking below support levels on Friday.

CORN
Front-month May corn futures fell 3.50 cents last week to $4.62 a bushel after struggling to shake pressure from Monday’s selloff. The current uptrend remains intact as pullbacks have been shallower.

Volume and open interest has been shifting over to the July contract over the past few weeks, though the May contract remains the most active.

The market is largely focusing on tomorrow’s USDA reports. We posted the pre-report expectations from Bloomberg on Friday. The grains stocks report could be the larger market mover for putting a number on first-quarter demand.

Read more: USDA planting report to show fewer corn acres, more soybeans

Private exporters reported the flash sale on Monday of 145,000 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural cut its 2025/26 corn production estimate to 135.7 MMT, down from 136.2 MMT. The reduction was largely due to drought and heat in Safrinha corn areas in western Parana.

SOYBEANS
May soybean futures posted minor losses of 2 cents last week despite Friday’s weak trade. Prices have largely been consolidating over the past couple of weeks, with the front-month contract finding resistance around $11.80.

On Friday, the EPA finally released its renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, which came in as friendly as the market expected. As expected, the soybean market faded the announcement, with prices trading about 15 cents lower by the close.

The EPA revised its biomass-based diesel volumes 24 percent higher than the June proposal to 8.86 billion RINS for 2026. The agency said foreign-based feedstocks will only receive half of a compliance credit than American-sourced feedstocks starting in 2028.

Still, the announcement should be friendly to U.S. soybeans and bring more certainty for crushers and biofuel producers.

AgRural reported that 75 percent of Brazil’s soybean harvest was complete as of last week. That compares to 82 percent the same week last year. AgRural said rains continued to slow fieldwork. Still, the firm raised its production estimate slightly to 178.4 MMT.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures largely rebounded from sharply lower trade last month to finish the week 9.75 cents higher at $6.05. Speculative short-covering was the primary driver, particularly in KC wheat contracts.

The ongoing conflict in Iran and increased drought concerns in the U.S. Plains largely supported the wheat complex.

Government forecasts are trying to put precipitation chances in the Plains for this week. However, much of those changes western Kansas and Nebraska. Getting rains to materialize this week will be key in chipping away at drought conditions for areas experiencing deteriorating soil moisture since last fall.

Russian-based research firm SovEcon said Russia’s March wheat exports could reach 4.5 MMT, up from 2.9 MMT in February.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 27, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher and back above 100 points. Crude oil continued to push higher as the market remained risk on. Stock futures are setting up for a potential another leg lower. CORN May corn futures posted modest losses on Thursday after trading…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 27, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher and back above 100 points. Crude oil continued to push higher as the market remained risk on. Stock futures are setting up for a potential another leg lower.

CORN
May corn futures posted modest losses on Thursday after trading 0.25 cents lower to close at $4.67. Prices had moved lower initially before finding support from buyers later in the session.

The current uptrend remains intact, with a test of the March highs likely. Corn’s ceiling may still be the $5 level due to ample stocks for the current season, as the December contract is currently testing the area this morning.

Managed money traders are significantly long on the market, though far from their historic net long position highs.

U.S. corn export sales remained strong last week, with volumes for the week ending March 19 holding at 1.22 MMT. Total exports and commitments are running 30 percent ahead of a year ago.

SOYBEANS
May soybeans saw moderate gains of 2 cents on Thursday to close at $11.73 ¾. Soybean futures continued to test near-term resistance levels. Like corn, soybeans may face a ceiling level, which is likely around $12.

Soybean oil continued to trade near a five-year high as bulls have largely remained in control.

The EPA is expected to release its final renewable volume obligations rule today. The rule was considered complete as of this morning, with the agency just needing to publish the rule publicly.

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 105,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Soybean meal export sales were the third-largest for the marketing year last week. Total exports and commitments are running 14 percent ahead of a year ago. Strong domestic soybean crush has kept export demand going due to higher supplies.

WHEAT
Wheat futures led the grains and oilseeds higher on Thursday after gaining 7.25 cents to close at $6.05 on the May Chicago contract.

Prices managed to climb back above the $6 handle. Last week’s high of $6.16 is nearby resistance, and a move above the level could trigger a test of the March high of $4.62

The weather in Plains remains a focus for the market outside of the conflict with Iran. The market may be trying to look past bearish fundamentals of record global wheat production last season.

New crop sales are beginning to take over the export sales sheet. Sales for 2026/27 totaled 205,800 MT, about unchanged from the previous week. New crop sales are slightly below the same week last year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Grain export sales overperform last week

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed stronger sales last week. For the week ending March 19, U.S. net corn sales rose slightly to 1.22 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn during the week, followed by Colombia and Japan. Net sales of…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed stronger sales last week. For the week ending March 19, U.S. net corn sales rose slightly to 1.22 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn during the week, followed by Colombia and Japan. Net sales of 135,000 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Japan.

Physical shipments fell 4 percent last week to 1.68 MMT, primarily destined for Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 68.88 MMT, up 30 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export sales more than doubled last week to 668,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/26. China was the largest buyer, though Germany, Mexico, and Japan also bought larger volumes. Net sales of 27,000 MT for 2026/27 were reported for unknown destinations and Taiwan.

Exports also jumped 48 percent higher to 1.34 MMT. China was the No. 1 destination, while Germany, Egypt, and Mexico also landed in the top five.

China’s total commitments for the marketing year are sitting at 11.24 MMT (413 million bushels). Commitments to non-China countries are running at a seven-year high due to slow Chinese purchases early in the season. Despite the larger demand outside of China, total commitments are running 18 percent below the previous season at 37.26 MMT.

Soybean meal export sales surged last week to 507,600 MT for 2025/26, hitting the third-highest volume for the marketing year. Net sales of 121,600 MT for 2026/27 were reported for unknown destinations and Mexico. Total exports and commitments continued to operate at a rapid pace, sitting 14 percent above last year and a record pace of at 12.9 MMT.

U.S. wheat export sales rose sharply last week to 397,200 MT for 2025/26. The Philippines was the largest buyer, followed by Taiwan, Mexico, and Haiti. Net sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were relatively strong, with the bulk of sales from South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

Exports were unchanged from last week at 383,500 MT, primarily destined for Mexico, China, and Taiwan. Total exports and commitments pushed higher, reaching 24.25 MMT, up 15 percent year-over-year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Drought Risks Emerging for U.S. Winter Wheat Areas

Below-average snow and rain throughout the fall and winter have left moisture deficits throughout the United States. According to the latest Drought Monitor, 55 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas are experiencing some level of drought conditions. That compared to 34 percent a year ago. Primary growing areas in Kansas have largely avoided the worst…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

Below-average snow and rain throughout the fall and winter have left moisture deficits throughout the United States.

According to the latest Drought Monitor, 55 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas are experiencing some level of drought conditions. That compared to 34 percent a year ago. Primary growing areas in Kansas have largely avoided the worst of the drought.

Winter wheat conditions showed further deterioration in March, according to the latest state crop conditions from the USDA. Forty-six percent of Kansas’ crop was in good/excellent condition as of March 22, down 6 percentage points from the week prior. Just 14 percent of Oklahoma’s crop was in good/excellent condition, down 4 points from the previous week and the lowest since 2018.

Texas’ crop conditions improved slightly, with 16 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, up one point from the previous week.

Drier weather is expected for much of the Plains over the next week. There are chances for above-average precipitation next week, which would be a welcome sight for many areas.

“This could go a long way to pushing back some of the soil moisture issues that we’re dealing with right now,” Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions said in a weekly weather interview.

While the forecasted storms could help alleviate long-term drought issues, the rains need to verify as the timeframe approaches.

“I’ve seen too many times the week 2 forecast be overaggressive on rainfall and under deliver,” he added.

Long-range models suggest persistent drought risks through the spring and into summer. Snodgrass said the position of El Niño this summer will be the primary factor of drought risks for the mid-section of the U.S.

Rainfall throughout the spring will be key for reviving soil moisture. Lackluster totals ahead of the spring could lead to additional weather premium building into the wheat market.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 26, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher after prices rebounded on Wednesday. Stock futures are lower. CORN The most active May corn contract traded 4.50 cents higher on Wednesday to 4.67 ¼, posting the strongest day in a few sessions.…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher after prices rebounded on Wednesday. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
The most active May corn contract traded 4.50 cents higher on Wednesday to 4.67 ¼, posting the strongest day in a few sessions. The contract found support just below $4.60 again before moving higher yesterday.

Sharply higher soybean prices and rising crude helped support corn yesterday. The current uptrend remains intact, with a test of the March highs likely.

Bloomberg should have its pre-report estimates out later today ahead of the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report on Tuesday. It’s becoming more likely that soybeans were able to buy more acres from corn since February.

Input costs are undoubtedly high, with fertilizer and crop ratios showing diminishing affordability for nitrogen use in corn.

U.S. ethanol production jumped 2.1 percent higher last week to an average of 1.116 million barrels a day, holding well above seasonal levels. The estimated corn crushed for ethanol production was about 109.4 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year reached approximately 3.112 billion bushels, reaching 55.6 percent of the USDA’s target.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans caught a late-session bid on Wednesday, boosting May futures 16.75 cents higher to close at $11.71 ¾. That was the strongest daily gain since March 6.

Prices are currently testing resistance at the November high around $11.78. Clearing that level could encourage bulls ahead of key biofuel policy announcements.

News that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi is back on helped soybean prices surge late in the session on Wednesday. Originally, the meeting had been delayed due to the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

The chokehold on global energy flows could add leverage for trade talks and China’s lackluster purchases of U.S. soybeans. China is confirmed to have only about 10 MMT of U.S. soybean commitments on the books for the current marketing year.

WHEAT
KC wheat led the wheat complex higher on Wednesday after gaining 13.75 cents to close at $6.17 ¾. Chicago wheat posted similar gains of 7.75 cents but found resistance around $6 a bushel.

Chicago futures successfully held support around a breakout area so far this week. Wheat technicals could become more positive as weather continues to build a story for the wheat market.

Hard red winter wheat traded at its highest premium to Chicago in about a year, likely due to production concerns in the HRW wheat belt. Crop conditions have deteriorated in the past month due to growing moisture deficits.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US soybean export inspections rise counterseasonally, corn inspections strong

The latest USDA Grain Export Inspections report showed corn inspections continued to operate above year-ago levels, while soybean movements trended higher. During the week ending March 19, corn inspections totaled 1.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 2 percent from the previous week and nearly 10 percent higher than the same week last year. Volumes remained…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 23, 2026

The latest USDA Grain Export Inspections report showed corn inspections continued to operate above year-ago levels, while soybean movements trended higher. During the week ending March 19, corn inspections totaled 1.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 2 percent from the previous week and nearly 10 percent higher than the same week last year. Volumes remained above the five-year average but were still lower than inspections observed during the 2020/21 marketing year.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Colombia, and Spain were also in the top five. Accumulated corn inspections rose to 44.58 MMT, running about 38 percent ahead of the previous season.

U.S. soybean export inspections rose 12.3 percent higher last week to 1.1 MMT. Volumes were also 32 percent higher than the same week last year.

China was the top destination for U.S. soybeans during the week, accounting for about half of the volumes. Egypt was also a larger destination for the week. U.S. soybean shipments typically enter their seasonal lull moving through the spring months. However, shipments rose counterseasonally the past couple of weeks due to stronger exports to China.

In response, total soybean shipments have been recovering compared to year-ago levels, sitting 27 percent below last season at 29.18 MMT. That is still the slowest pace since the 2018/19 marketing year.

During the week ending March 19, U.S. wheat export inspections jumped 33 percent higher to 458,400 MT. Volumes were 5.5 percent lower than the same week last year despite the large weekly increase. However, SRW wheat and durum wheat volumes were above last year’s levels.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat during the week. China was the second-largest destination, followed by Taiwan and Kenya. Total wheat inspections for the season are running 18 percent ahead of the previous year at 19.93 MMT. Inspections are also running at a five-year high, as cheaper prices spurred higher demand.

U.S. sorghum inspections rose sharply last week to 182,200 MT. All of the volumes were inspected for shipment to China. Year-to-date shipments are running 72 percent ahead of last season at 2.69 MMT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher but has been swinging amid recent comments from President Trump regarding a potential pathway to end the war with Iran. Stock futures also surged on the news and are recovering from mulit-month lows. CORN Corn…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher but has been swinging amid recent comments from President Trump regarding a potential pathway to end the war with Iran. Stock futures also surged on the news and are recovering from mulit-month lows.

CORN
Corn futures largely recovered last week after Monday’s sharp decline. Prices have been largely rangebound since surging near $5 a bushel on the May contract earlier this month.

Futures retested those highs overnight before talks of a potential end to the war led to a reversal in the grain markets early this morning.

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 102,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that the country’s winter corn planting reached 97 percent complete as of last week. That compared to 100 percent a year ago.

Reuters reported that Argentina is shipping grains out at a strong pace amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Corn sales have been booming to help absorb one of the country’s largest harvests, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange.

SOYBEANS
Monday’s sharp selloff kept soybean futures under pressure last week. The May contract finished 64 cents lower.

Fear of the delayed meeting between Trump and Xi drew skepticism over future soybean purchases from China.

China decided to ease rules on soybean imports from Brazil. Chinese authorities acknowledged that it is not possible to attest to the absolute absence of weed seeds in soybeans.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said it expects China’s soybean imports to total 108 MMt for the 2026/27 marketing year, up 2 MMT from the previous season. The increase reflects “moderate growth in demand for soybean meal by China’s feed industry.”

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 161,120 MT of soybean sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 68 percent complete as of last week. Progress was tracking about 12 percent behind last year’s pace.

WHEAT
Wheat futures have been establishing a trading range since reversing from multi-month highs earlier this month. Still, May Chicago wheat traded 18.50 cents lower last week.

Volatility has been picking since the war with Iran began. The trend has been bullish, though some of that momentum slowed with last week’s trade.

Little precipitation is expected for the Plains over the next week, which is not good for winter wheat, as drought covers about 55 percent of winter wheat areas in the U.S.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales dipped in the week ending March 12

U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales dipped last week, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 12, corn sales dipped 22.7 percent to 1.17 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Japan and Spain. Total net sales of 12,000…

Written by

MaryAnne Knight

·

March 19, 2026

U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales dipped last week, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 12, corn sales dipped 22.7 percent to 1.17 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Japan and Spain. Total net sales of 12,000 metric tons (MT) for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Physical shipments were up 4 percent from the previous week at 1.75 MMT. Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Venezuela, Spain, and South Korea rounded out the top five. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 67.697 MMT, up 30 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export sales of 298,200 MT for 2025/26 were down 35 percent from the previous week. China was the top buyer for the week. Mexico and unknown buyers were the next top destinations. Net sales of 6,600 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Japan and South Korea.

Weekly soybean exports fell nine percent from the previous week to 906,500 MT. About 60 percent of the shipments went to China. Egypt and Mexico also landed in the top five destinations. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 36.796 MMT, 19 percent lower than a year ago.

U.S. wheat export sales were down 58 percent to 189,900 MT for 2025/26 from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer for the week, followed by the Philippines and South Korea. Net sales of 212,100 MT for 2026/27 were primarily for the Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, unknown destinations, and Jamaica.

Exports were down 11 percent for the week at 383,100 MT. Mexico was the top destination, followed by the Philippines, Bangladesh, South Korea, and the Dominican Republic. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 23.9 MMT, sitting 15 percent higher than a year ago.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn and soybean inspections rebound, wheat dips

U.S. corn export inspections increased after recent declines, yet remained below year-ago levels, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. During the week ending March 12, corn inspections totaled 1.66 million metric tons (MMT), up 9.3 percent from the previous week. Volumes were 2 percent lower than the same week last year.…

Written by

MaryAnne Knight

·

March 16, 2026

U.S. corn export inspections increased after recent declines, yet remained below year-ago levels, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. During the week ending March 12, corn inspections totaled 1.66 million metric tons (MMT), up 9.3 percent from the previous week. Volumes were 2 percent lower than the same week last year.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Colombia, Spain, and South Korea were also in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year reached 42.87 MMT, up 39 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export inspections also increased 9.9 percent last week to 966,100 metric tons (MT). Volumes were up 46.9 percent compared to the same week last year.

China was the top destination, accounting for 56.5 percent of the volumes, followed by Egypt, Mexico, and Indonesia. Year-to-date inspections for the marketing year rose to 28.1 MMT, down 28 percent from the previous season.

For the week ending March 5, wheat export inspections dropped 31 percent to 343,000 MT. Volumes were also about 31 percent lower than the same week last year.

Mexico came in as the top destination for the week. The Phillipines, Bangladesh, South Korea and the Dominican Republic rounded out the top five. Accumulated inspections for the season are running 19 percent ahead of a year ago at 19.47 MMT.

Sorghum inspections softened last week to 127,600 MT, though movements remained sharply higher than a year ago. Year-to-date inspections rose to 2.504 MMT, running 61.2 percent ahead of the previous season.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Tag: Wheat

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