Tag: Wheat

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – February 2, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to rebound this morning following last year’s four-year low. Crude oil futures fell sharply overnight. Stock futures are mostly lower. CORN March corn finished a modest 2.25 cents lower last week to close at $4.28 ¼ a bushel. Prices had…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  February 2, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to rebound this morning following last year’s four-year low. Crude oil futures fell sharply overnight. Stock futures are mostly lower.

  CORN
  March corn finished a modest 2.25 cents lower last week to close at $4.28 ¼ a bushel. Prices had attempted to extend their gains from the previous week. Futures traded up to major chart resistance and failed to climb back into their old range before dropping on technical selling.

  Pressure continued into Monday, with last week’s highs so far turning out to be the top end of a new range at current levels.

  The federal government entered a partial shutdown on Saturday as Congress failed to pass an appropriations bill before funding expired for most agencies after Jan. 30. USDA should not be as impacted due the agency being funded through the rest of the fiscal year in the appropriations bill passed in November.

  Limited rainfall remained in the forecasts for Argentina’s primary corn-growing areas. Crop ratings have declined substantially with the ongoing dry spell. However, conditions are better than the previous season due to optimal soil moisture during planting.

  Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that Brazil’s winter corn planting reached 10 percent complete, compared to 14 percent the same week last year. Progress in Mato Grosso is ahead of last year’s pace but behind the five-year average.

  SOYBEANS
  Like corn, soybeans failed to clear above technical resistance areas last week, with farmer selling likely adding some pressure. March soybeans traded finished 3.50 cents lower last week at $10.64 ¼.

  To some surprise, some of those gains were driven by real buyers stepping in rather than just speculative short-covering. Short-covering was more prominent in the soybean oil market due to headline risk regarding biofuel policy.

  The USDA will release U.S. soybean crush data for December this afternoon. Soybean processing is expected to have totaled 230.5 million bushels, falling short of the October record of 236.3 million.

  AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 10 percent complete, tracking one percent ahead of a year ago. Progress in Mato Grosso is running at the fastest pace in the last five years.

  WHEAT
  Wheat futures performed the best out of the grain markets last week, with the March Chicago contract finishing 11.50 cents higher at $5.38 a bushel, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains.

  Prices managed to climb to a four-month high and held above the 100-day moving average, a key technical level, for the first time since November. As stated last week, a notable move above the level could trigger additional buying.

  During the week ending Jan. 27, money managers were heavy buyers of SRW wheat contracts, driven mostly by speculative short-covering. Much of the buying had been due to concerns over extreme cold in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea last week.

  EU wheat prices climbed to a two-month high on Friday, tracking prices in Chicago higher. HRW wheat prices have had the strongest increase among global competitors.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Monthly Grain Trade – November 2025

  U.S. corn exports totaled 7.305 million metric tons (MMT) in November, up 55 percent compared to a year ago. That was the largest monthly total since last April. Mexico remained the top importer for U.S. corn, followed by Japan and South Korea. Cumulative shipments for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 reached 20.85…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 30, 2026

  U.S. corn exports totaled 7.305 million metric tons (MMT) in November, up 55 percent compared to a year ago. That was the largest monthly total since last April. Mexico remained the top importer for U.S. corn, followed by Japan and South Korea. Cumulative shipments for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 reached 20.85 MMT, sitting nearly 60 percent above the same period last year.

  For the marketing year that began in September, shipments to Mexico are largely unchanged compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, substantial growth compared to last season has been observed for exports to Japan, South Korea, as well as the rest of the world.

  

  U.S. soybean exports in November totaled 4.293 MMT, falling 56 percent from the same month last year. That was the lowest November print since 2007 amid reduced demand, particularly from China. Mexico was the top importer for the month, with shipments totaling 549,000 metric tons (MT). Italy was the No. 2 destination at 471,700 MT.

  Year-to-date shipments for the season reached 12.5 MMT, falling 44 percent from the same period last year. The lack of demand from China weighed heavily on exports since the beginning of the season. Demand outside of China has been higher this year, with higher year-over-year shipments to Italy, Egypt, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

  

  Wheat exports totaled 1.617 MMT in November, up 14 percent from a year ago. Shipments were down for a second month as the primary shipping window closed for the season. Indonesia surpassed Mexico as the top export destination for the month after scooping up 252,000 MT. Mexico was the second-largest destination, followed by Nigeria and Japan.

  Year-to-date exports for the marketing year reached 22.76 MMT, rising 23 percent above the previous season. Additionally, exports are running at their fastest pace in the past five years, as lower prices drove demand for U.S. wheat. Mexico has been a primary contributor to that growth. Larger shipments to Bangladesh, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia were also a factor.

  

  The U.S. Census Bureau will issue December trade data on Feb. 19. Data reporting should return to its normal schedule in March.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 30, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher as it continued its modest recovery from the lowest in nearly four years. Crude oil is slightly lower following this week’s surge. Stock futures continued to back off their highs. CORN March corn traded a modest 0.75 cents higher…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 30, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher as it continued its modest recovery from the lowest in nearly four years. Crude oil is slightly lower following this week’s surge. Stock futures continued to back off their highs.

  CORN
  March corn traded a modest 0.75 cents higher on Thursday to close at $4.30 ¾ after struggling to hold intraday highs for a second session. Prices have retraced about 50 percent of their losses from the report day washout that took futures to the lowest in nearly five months.

  The market has been showing more resilience over the past week, as minor pullbacks have found buyers. However, prices may struggle to move back into their tighter trading range above $5.35.

  U.S. ethanol exports continued to operate at a record in November. Year-to-date shipments now total 1.96 billion gallons, and are on pace to exceed 2 billion gallons for the first time.

  Rainfall reached parts of western Buenos Aires and southern Córdoba, helping to improve soil moisture for late-planted corn in Argentina. Corn crop conditions continued to decline, with just 46 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 52 percent last week.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybeans closed 2.75 cents lower at $10.72 ¼ on Thursday after rejecting a move above resistance for a second session. Poor closes the past two days set the market up for weaker trade headed into Friday’s session.

  Soybean oil has been losing steam for its recent rally, with prices rolling over the past couple of sessions. Much of the rally had been driven by speculative short-covering amid an unwillingness to hold shorts ahead of key biofuel announcements.

  The Brazilian real rallied to nearly a two-year high, helping improve export competitiveness for non-China buyers. Yesterday’s export sales data showed that soybean exports and commitments remain low compared to previous years, but demand from non-China countries is at a seven-year high.

  Soybean conditions continued to deteriorate in Argentina, with 47 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 53 percent last week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said additional rainfall in key areas is needed as a third of the soybean crop enters critical stages.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat traded 5.50 cents higher on Thursday, and closed near the top end of its daily range at $541 ½. Higher trade over the past few sessions has been driven mostly by speculative short-covering.

  Futures are headed for their best month of gains in nearly two years amid a weaker dollar and recent crop concerns. Worries over frost damage helped lift futures to the highest in about two months.

  Zooming out, it’s unclear how long the bullish sentiment will last, as there are no clear signals for significant downgrades in the global supply outlook. Weak fundamentals remain in place following record harvests across the globe.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  U.S. grain export sales back off from highs

  U.S. grain export sales normalized last week after a huge week of sales across the board. U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Jan. 22 totaled 1.65 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes remained above the same week last year amid continued demand from key buyers. Japan rose to the…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 29, 2026

  U.S. grain export sales normalized last week after a huge week of sales across the board. U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Jan. 22 totaled 1.65 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes remained above the same week last year amid continued demand from key buyers. Japan rose to the top seat for last week’s sales, followed closely by Mexico.

  Exports last week rose 17 percent to 1.67 MMT, hitting a one-month high. Volumes were primarily destined for Mexico, Japan, and Spain. Accumulated exports reached 32.08 MMT, up 53 percent year-over-year. Total exports and commitments rose to 57.69 MMT, sitting 33 percent higher than a year ago.

  

  

  U.S. soybean export sales fell 67 percent last week to 819,000 MT for the 2025/26 season. Volumes fell back near their typical range but remained above the five-year average. China remained the top buyer for the week despite the large drop in purchases. Egypt and Mexico also made it on the top five list. The pace of outstanding sales has been running counterseasonal, compared to the past five-years due to late sales to China.

  Exports fell 5 percent from the previous week to 1.27 MMT, led by shipments to China, Spain, and Mexico. Accumulated shipments rose to 20.54 MMT, still sitting about 38 percent below the previous season. Non-China exports are running at their fastest pace out of the past five years, but are still not enough to make up for the lack of Chinese demand early in the season. Total soybean exports and commitments reached 33.85 MMT, running 21 percent below last season and the slowest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

  

  

  Soybean meal export sales rose 13 percent last week to 464,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/26. The Philippines was the top buyer for the week, followed by Colombia and Mexico. Sales were above the five-year average for the week, as steady demand remained for meal.

  Exports fell 32 percent from the previous week to 330,600 MT. Shipments were primarily destined to the Philippines, Mexico, and Colombia. Accumulated exports rose to 5.48 MMT, up 19 percent from the previous season. Total exports and commitments continued to operate at a record pace, running 11.5 percent ahead of last year.

  

  All wheat export sales fell 10 percent from the previous week to 558,200 MT for the current marketing year, though volumes remained well above the four-week average. Sales picked up again this month after slowing in previous weeks. Japan was the top buyer for the week, followed by Mexico and Nigeria. Net sales for the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 21,400 MT, with sales reported for unknown buyers and Mexico.

  Weekly exports rose 2 percent to 378,800 MT, primarily led by shipments to South Korea, Mexico, and Nigeria. Accumulated shipments reached 16.12 MMT, up 21 percent year-over-year. HRW wheat exports have been the primary driver of the growth, as exports are nearly double last year’s volumes. All wheat exports and commitments are also running 18 percent ahead of last season.

  

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 29, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its modest recovery after falling near a four-year low on Tuesday. Crude oil surged yet again overnight. Stock futures are higher. CORN Corn futures climbed sharply higher on Wednesday and approached old support areas, though prices settled off their highs…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 29, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its modest recovery after falling near a four-year low on Tuesday. Crude oil surged yet again overnight. Stock futures are higher.

  CORN
  Corn futures climbed sharply higher on Wednesday and approached old support areas, though prices settled off their highs and only gained 3.50 cents on the day to close at $4.30 a bushel.

  Futures once again challenged those levels overnight, attempting to retrace their sharp losses from the Jan. 12 data dump.

  The recent surge in crude oil is likely having some positive effects on the grain market after reaching the highest level in about six months. That will likely benefit ethanol demand, where production continued to hold at a record pace last week.

  The USDA reported corn export sales for the week ending Jan. 22 at 1.65 MMT, down from the lofty 4.01 MMT the previous week. Japan rose to the top of the sales sheet last week, followed by Mexico and Colombia.

  Weather models point toward continued dryness in major parts of Argentina over the next two weeks. Crop conditions from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange later today are expected to show further decreases in conditions for developing crops.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybean futures rallied to resistance levels on Wednesday, but a failure to hold onto those gains left prices 7.75 cents higher at $10.75. Futures did run up to resistance again overnight, with bean meal futures providing some help.

  U.S. soybean export sales fell from their marketing-year high last week to 819,000 MT. China remained the largest buyer, but sales were disappointing compared to the previous week.

  The four-year low in the U.S. dollar this week will likely help some soybean export demand among non-China buyers. Brazil’s soybeans are still competitively priced against the U.S.

  Weather concerns in South American, particularly Argentina, could continue to support soybeans through this week. Global soybean crush remains high among major exports.

  WHEAT
  The wheat complex continued to lead the grains higher this week, with March Chicago wheat trading 12.75 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.36 a bushel.

  Much of this week’s gains have likely been speculative short-covering. As noted earlier this week, a move above the 100-day moving average could trigger additional buying, which continued to occur overnight.

  Export sales during the week ending Jan. 22 remained strong despite declining on the week. Volumes totaled 579,600 MT and held above the five-year average. Large sales were reported for Japan, Mexico, and Nigeria.

  U.S. HRW wheat export prices have been rallying compared to other global competitors over the past month. Demand for HRW wheat has been higher than other major varieties recently, as accounted for a large portion of last week’s sales.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 28, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar recovered from recent lows. Crude oil continued to push higher. Stock futures are higher, with the S&P 500 trading at a record. CORN March corn traded another 1.75 cents lower on Tuesday to close at $4.26 ½. Prices pushed back toward…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 28, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar recovered from recent lows. Crude oil continued to push higher. Stock futures are higher, with the S&P 500 trading at a record.

  CORN
  March corn traded another 1.75 cents lower on Tuesday to close at $4.26 ½. Prices pushed back toward last week’s highs, attempting to negate losses from the past two sessions.

  Perhaps helping the market this morning was President Trump’s comments last night in support of year-round E15. The administration said it would allow “up to 2 billion more bushels of corn to be consumed domestically” if implemented.

  E15 is currently limited to the summer months, however exemptions have become more common in recent years that could limit the impact if passed by Congress.

  The weaker U.S. dollar could finally be having a positive impact on the grain markets after falling to the lowest in more than a year.

  SOYBEANS
  Soybeans were the most positive yesterday, with the March contract rising 5.50 cents to close at $10.67 ½. Soybean oil led those gains, as prices continued to develop a firmer tone.

  Soybean futures climbed another 11 cents higher overnight and poked above the 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-December.

  The market may be cautiously optimistic that the Trump administration will release favorable biofuel policy over the next few weeks or months. However, prices may need to climb above $10.72 to avoid more range-bound trade.

  The ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest, which is expected to be a record, could continue to limit gains in the soybean complex.

  WHEAT
  Wheat futures were steady on Tuesday, with the March Chicago contract rising 0.75 cents to $5.23 ¼. Prices rose back to Monday’s highs just below the 100-day moving average.

  Again, a move above the level could help trigger additional short-covering, through gains could be limited by bearish fundamentals. The wheat market has been working to hold their established lows, which is more defined in the HRW wheat contracts.

  Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 45.7 MMT, up 1.1 million due to a strong shipment pace and higher crop production estimates. December wheat shipments were the highest for the month in eight years.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 27, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following losses from the previous session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight after falling to the lowest since early September to start the week. Crude oil is sharply higher and pushing to the upper end of its range. Stock futures are mixed. CORN Corn futures…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 27, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following losses from the previous session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight after falling to the lowest since early September to start the week. Crude oil is sharply higher and pushing to the upper end of its range. Stock futures are mixed.

  CORN
  Corn futures pulled back from their recent highs on Monday, as the market became more cautious following Friday’s rally. March corn traded 2.25 cents lower to close at $4.28 ¼, holding above the old support level around $4.25.

  The market could begin to establish a trading range at current levels, with Monday’s high serving as the top end of that range.

  President Trump is speaking in Iowa today and is expected to kick off support for the midterm elections in November. While his speech is expected to focus on the economy, Trump may mention biofuel policy, which has yet to be finalized by the EPA, as well as the Treasury Department’s 45Z rule.

  The USDA confirmed on Tuesday that private exporters sold 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. Additionally, 306,000 MT of sorghum sales were reported for unknown buyers, likely China.

  SOYBEANS
  Soybeans experienced a technically bearish day on Monday. March futures traded nearly 10 cents higher before reversing and closing 6 cents lower at $10.61 ¾.

  Farmers selling grain likely added some downward pressure as prices approached technical resistance. Slipping back below the October breakout last month could make it more difficult for futures to rally.

  The ongoing soybean harvest in Brazil will likely keep a lid on prices for the short term. Yields are expected to be average this season. However, the monster production estimates continue to be driven by record plantings in the country.

  Chinese importers booked at least 25 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil for March and April delivery. Meanwhile, state-owned companies are refraining from buying additional U.S. tons after reportedly fulfilling the 12 MMT commitment.

  WHEAT
  Wheat futures posted a strong reversal day, with the March Chicago contract traded nearly 11 cents lower than their high for the day. Prices found resistance at the 100-day moving average, which will likely serve as a technical level for the near term.

  Concern over the recent cold blast seemed to have cooled after initially spooking short positions out of the market late last week.

  Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions noted in our weekly Farmer Forecast interview that a large portion of the U.S. could have plenty of access to cold air moving through February. That is expected to bring drier-than-average conditions throughout the month.

  Russia’s agriculture minister said the country exported 41 MMT of wheat in 2025, with much of the grain going to Africa and the Middle East. Russia plans to continue boosting grain production over the next few years, which could expand its market share in global exports.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Grain export inspections steady last week

  U.S. grain export inspections were relatively stable last week, according to the latest USDA data released on Monday. Corn movements rose about 2 percent from the previous week to 1.51 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were about 80 percent higher than the same week last year as plenty of bushels continued to be shipped to…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 26, 2026

  U.S. grain export inspections were relatively stable last week, according to the latest USDA data released on Monday. Corn movements rose about 2 percent from the previous week to 1.51 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were about 80 percent higher than the same week last year as plenty of bushels continued to be shipped to key buyers.

  

  Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Spain, Colombia, and Portugal were also in the top five. Accumulated corn shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year rose to 31.44 MMT, up 53.3 percent year-over-year.

  Soybean export inspections fell by about 2 percent last week to 1.32 MMT. Volumes were above year-ago levels for a third consecutive week, driven by stronger shipments to China.

  

  China accounted for more than half of the inspections last week. Meanwhile, Mexico and Italy were in the top five. Year-to-date inspections rose to 20.67 MMT, sitting 37.5 percent lower than the previous season. Additionally, inspections are the slowest since the 2013/14 season.

  U.S. wheat export inspections fell 12 percent to 351,000 metric tons (MT). Volumes were also 28 percent lower than the same week last year as export sales trickled lower this winter. Seasonally, inspections should begin to rise over the next few months.

  

  South Korea was the largest destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines. Mexico remains the largest importer of U.S. wheat for the current season, followed by the Philippines. Other countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia have seen larger increases in imports compared to the previous year.

  Accumulated inspections for the season rose to 16.33 MMT, up 18 percent year-over-year. Inspections are running at the fastest pace since the 2020/21 season.

  Sorghum export inspections fell 28 percent from the previous week to 126,000 MT. Volumes remained sharply higher than a year ago despite the week-over-week decline. China was the largest importer of sorghum during the week, though volumes were also reported for Spain and Japan. Year-to-date inspections are now just 5.7 percent below last season at 1.31 MMT.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 26, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are steady to lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar gapped open lower overnight and hit the lowest since early September. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher and holding near their all-time highs. CORN Corn futures received a late week rally on Friday that helped prices gain…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 26, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are steady to lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar gapped open lower overnight and hit the lowest since early September. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher and holding near their all-time highs.

  CORN
  Corn futures received a late week rally on Friday that helped prices gain 5.75 cents on the week. Much of the gains were led by the wheat complex from technical short-covering, as extreme cold threatens dormant winter wheat.

  Corn futures were able to climb back above the old support level at $5.25 ½ on Friday and held above the level despite some losses overnight.

  U.S. corn demand remains at the forefront of bullish news. Export sales during the week ending Jan. 15 surged to 4.01 MMT, the largest for any week on record aside from weeks when China was buying.

  Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that Brazil’s Safrinah corn planting reached 4.7 percent complete last week, compared to 2.2 percent the same week last year. Meanwhile, the summer corn harvest is 5 percent complete, down from 8.6 percent a year ago.

  Argentina’s corn crop conditions took a hit last week, with 51 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 64 percent the previous week.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybeans grinded higher last week, gaining a modest 10 cents to close at $10.67 ¾. Prices fell short of the 100-day moving average during last night’s trade.

  The lack of biofuel policy from the EPA has kept plenty of uncertainty in the market. However, the expectation of finalized mandates being released by March helped lift soybean oil futures back to their summer highs.

  U.S. soybean export sales rose to a marketing-year high of 2.45 MMT for the week ending Jan. 15. Those sales were led primarily by China, who continued to steadily buy U.S. beans. Confirmed purchases from China reached 10.56 MMT, though Bloomberg reported that sales have reached the 12 MMT commitment.

  AgRural reported that Brazil’s summer soybean planting reached 4.9 percent complete last week, compared to 3.9 percent a year ago. The firm raised its 2025/26 production forecast to 181 MMT, up 0.6 million from its December estimate.

  Argentina’s soybean conditions continued to slip last week, with 53 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 61 percent the previous week. However, conditions remain better than the previous season despite increasingly dry conditions in central and southern Argentina.

  WHEAT
  Chicago wheat futures finished strong last week after an 11.50-cent gain. March futures rose to a six week high again overnight amid freeze risks to the dormant U.S. winter crop.

  Overnight low temperatures were well below average and dipped into negative territory throughout the Midwest and Plains regions. Snow cover across areas could help limit damage, but the risk was the likely driver of last week’s rally.

  The wheat market has been susceptible to some short covering. A move above the 100-day moving average around $5.33 could trigger additional buying.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 16, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower this morning but has been grinding higher for most of the week. Crude oil is higher after Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are steady this morning. Markets will be closed on Monday for Dr. MLK Jr. Day. CORN March…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 16, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower this morning but has been grinding higher for most of the week. Crude oil is higher after Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are steady this morning.

  Markets will be closed on Monday for Dr. MLK Jr. Day.

  CORN
  March corn futures have been mostly consolidative this week following Monday’s washout from the USDA’s WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. Prices have struggled to climb back above $4.25 a bushel, a level that would have been a likely support area. However, the level will likely serve as resistance for the short term.

  This week’s trade has brought higher open interest, suggesting traders may be adding short positions following Monday’s downside breakout.

  U.S. ethanol production hit a record 1.196 million barrels a day last week, smashing previous records, according to the latest EIA data. Ethanol inventories rose modestly despite the large increase and remained below year-ago levels.

  Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its Brazilian corn production forecast slightly to 138.9 MMT. Output is expected to be 1.5 percent lower than the previous season.

  The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentinian corn production estimate to 62 MMT, up 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that just 64 percent of the corn crop is in good/excellent condition, compared to 75 percent a week ago.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybeans have so far defended prices above $10.40 following Monday’s selloff. Soybean oil prices have been the strongest in the complex, with March futures climbing back above 50 cents this week.

  Reuters reported that the EPA will likely issue its finalized renewable volume obligations in March. Uncertainty revolving around biofuel policy has lead to volatility trade since the new year, but soybean crushers remained optimistic.

  The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its processing members crushed 225 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 9 percent year-over-year. That was also the second-highest volume for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of the month totaled 1.642 billion pounds, up 33 percent from last year.

  Conab lowered its 2025/26 soybean production estimate to 176.1 MMT, down 1 million from the previous estimate due to expectations of lower acreage. Output is still forecast to be 2.7 percent higher than last season.

  WHEAT
  Like corn, Chicago wheat has been mostly consolidating this week since Monday’s selloff. KC wheat futures have been weaker, though both markets popped up overnight.

  Futures are largely bearish, though prices have been able to hold up relatively well follow their bearish report trade.

  U.S. wheat export sales have slowed dramatically in recent weeks despite prices remaining near contract lows. Still, total exports and commitments remain above the five-year average. Global competition following Argentina’s record harvest could weigh on U.S. export demand.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  December U.S. corn stockpiles swell to record

  The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday showed that Dec. 1 corn inventories totaled 13.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent year-over-year. On-farm bushels totaled 8.70 billion bushels, 14 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.58 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 2024. Total disappearance between September and November was 5.29…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 13, 2026

  The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday showed that Dec. 1 corn inventories totaled 13.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent year-over-year. On-farm bushels totaled 8.70 billion bushels, 14 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.58 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 2024.

  Total disappearance between September and November was 5.29 billion bushels, up 15.5 percent from a year earlier. Demand has outperformed expectations, but the USDA continued to find additional corn acres, along with surprisingly high yields.

  U.S. corn exports are running 61 percent higher than a year ago, while corn ethanol crush is up about half of a percent. But the USDA projecting 2025 corn production at a record 17 billion bushels suggests strong stocks.

  

  Total stocks in Iowa and Illinois saw similar increases during the quarter, with combined stockpiles up 2.8 percent at 4.32 billion bushels. On-farm storage was higher, while off farm bushels were lower compared to a year ago.

  Dec. 1 soybean stockpiles totaled 3.30 billion bushels, up 6 percent from December 2024. Soybean stocks held on farms were up 2 percent at 1.58 billion bushels. Off-farm storage was 10 percent higher at 1.71 billion. On-farm storage accounted for 48 percent of total stocks.

  

  Soybean utilization during the quarter was just 1.30 billion bushels, marking a 20 percent decline from the previous year. Crush demand has been strong, but lower exports, particularly to China, were the primary reason for higher stocks.

  Crush is expected to be a record this season. However, exports are projected to decline 16 percent from last season despite recent buying from China. The country has bought a confirmed 7.53 MMT of U.S. soybeans for this season, according to USDA data, but volumes are well below historical averages.

  All wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 were 1.675 billion bushels, up 7 percent from a year ago. About 446 million bushels were held on farms, down 4 percent from December. However, off-farm storage rose by 11 percent from last year to 1.23 billion bushels.

  

  Disappearance during the quarter totaled 459 million bushels, up 9 percent from a year ago. Wheat experienced the same situation as corn. Demand is up, but so are total supplies. As a whole, U.S. wheat supplies have been trending higher for the past few seasons. We aren’t quite as high as levels seen in 2016/17, but year-over-year data has been painting a picture of a more burdensome outlook.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – January 13, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following Monday’s bearish trade. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher and pushing above $60 a barrel. Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 trading at a record. CORN March corn traded 24.25 cents lower on Monday to close at $4.21 ½ a bushel. Prices…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 13, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following Monday’s bearish trade. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher and pushing above $60 a barrel. Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 trading at a record.

  CORN
  March corn traded 24.25 cents lower on Monday to close at $4.21 ½ a bushel. Prices broke below the low end of their trading range and the October low, ultimately wiping out about four months of trading.

  Additionally, futures had their largest daily loss since June 2023. New lows could incentivize additional short selling after speculators were fairly neutral heading into the report.

  Yesterday’s WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports brought higher-than-anticipated stocks estimates, with Dec. 1 stockpiles at a record 13.28 billion bushels. Demand has outperformed expectations, but the USDA continued to find additional corn acres, along with surprisingly high yields.

  World ending stocks also increased by about 14 MMT, largely due to the increases for the U.S. and China.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybeans traded 13.50 cents lower on Monday to close at $10.49 a bushel following the bearish WASDE and grain stocks reports. Prices are testing the bottom end of their newly established range around $10.40.

  While not as bearish as corn, soybeans were surprised by higher-than-expected ending stocks for 2025/26, as well as Dec. 1 grain stocks.

  Dec. 1 soybean stocks totaled 3.29 billion bushels, up 6 percent from the previous year. Soybean disappearance during the previous quarter totaled just 1.30 billion bushels, marking a 20 percent decline from the previous year.

  Soybean oil was the winner for the day after trading higher despite bearish numbers for principal crops. The USDA lowered soybean oil ending stocks due to lower production and higher exports offsetting reduced biofuel usage.

  The USDA confirmed Tuesday that private exporters sold 168,000 MT of soybeans to China, and 152,404 MT of soybeans to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat futures finished negative on Monday, trading 6 cents lower to $5.11 ¼. Prices had attempted to break above resistance pre-report. Higher-than-expected ending stocks and negative corn and soybean trade ultimately took prices lower into the close.

  Yesterday’s reports were less bearish for the wheat complex, with 2025/26 ending stocks being raised to 926 million bushels, compared to an expected decrease. Exports were left unchanged at 900 million bushels, as the USDA exercises caution on the current shipment pace.

  Winter wheat plantings totaled 33 million acres this year down, 0.5 percent from last year, according to the USDA’s Winter Wheat/Canola Plantings report. That was due to a 4.8 percent reduction in white wheat acreage offsetting slightly higher SRW and HRW acres.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.