Tag: Wheat

• 

  Soybean, wheat export sales recover, corn dips

  U.S. corn export sales dipped last week, while soybean and wheat sales recovered, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 5, corn sales dipped 26 percent last week to 1.50 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and South…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 12, 2026

  U.S. corn export sales dipped last week, while soybean and wheat sales recovered, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 5, corn sales dipped 26 percent last week to 1.50 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and South Korea. Total net sales of 500 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

  Physical shipments were down 1 percent from the previous week at 1.68 MMT. Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Colombia, and South Korea also landed in the top five. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 66.51 MMT, up 32 percent year-over-year.

  

  U.S. soybean export sales jumped 19 percent last week to 456,700 MT for 2025/26. Indonesia was the top buyer for the week, surpassing China. Mexico and Egypt were the next top destinations. Total net sales of 9,500 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

  Weekly soybean exports fell one percent from the previous week to 995,300 metric tons (MT). About half of the shipments went to China.

  China’s total commitments for the marketing year are sitting at 10.9 MMT, down 49 percent from the previous year and well below the five-year average. Commitments to non-China countries are running at a seven-year high due to slow Chinese purchases early in the season. Despite large demand outside of China, total commitments are running 19 percent lower than a year ago at 36.49 MMT.

  

  U.S. wheat export sales jumped 49 percent higher last week to 455,400 MT for 2025/26. Mexico was the top buyer for the week, followed by China, and Japan. Net sales of 40,400 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Honduras, Colombia, and Nicaragua.

  Exports were also 24 percent higher for the week at 432,000 MT. China was the top destination, followed by Mexico and Thailand. China has been appearing in export reports recently. The wheat shipments contained mostly white wheat.

  Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 23.66 MMT, sitting 11 percent higher than a year ago. Increased demand for HRW wheat has largely led the increase this season.

  

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 12, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher again on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil futures shot up again overnight amid ongoing attacks on tankers by Iran. Stock futures are pushing lower again. CORN Nearby May corn futures jumped 8 cents higher yesterday to $4.60 ¼. A bushel. Prices met some…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 12, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher again on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil futures shot up again overnight amid ongoing attacks on tankers by Iran. Stock futures are pushing lower again.

  CORN
  Nearby May corn futures jumped 8 cents higher yesterday to $4.60 ¼. A bushel. Prices met some resistance before the close but were able to clear the level in the overnight trade.

  Another run-up in crude oil continued to support the grain markets amid ongoing attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East.

  U.S. ethanol production rose 2.8 percent last week to an average of 1.126 million barrels a day. The estimated corn crushed for ethanol was about 110.3 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year rose to approximately 2.896 billion bushels, reaching about 52 percent of the USDA’s target.

  SOYBEANS
  The gap open higher in soybean futures held up during yesterday’s session after closing 12.25 cents higher at $12.14. Prices are testing Monday’s highs after the key market reversal failed to hold pressure on the soybean complex.

  A pullback could find support near the $11.80 level after holding the breakout level.

  There were reports that the EPA’s biofuel announcement could be more supportive for production and limit non-north American feedstock use than previously expected.

  Reuters reported that Cargill suspended soybean exports from Brazil to China due to stricter phytosanitary inspections. The government introduced tougher inspections procedures for shipments to China, which is halting exports.

  Brazilian supplies are likely piling up at ports as harvest progresses.

  WHEAT
  May Chicago wheat futures rose a steady 3.75 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.94 ¾. HRW wheat futures climbed 4.75 cents to $6.13 ½. Prices were higher in the session but met resistance near $6.24. That level proved to be tougher overnight.

  Prices may remain bullish until the Iran situation stabilizes. Market fundamentals are largely bearish outside of supply disruptions.

  Winter wheat areas are expected to receive drier than average weather over the next week. Recent rainfall helped improve drought conditions slightly, with 55 percent of winter wheat areas experiencing some level of drought. That still compared to just 27 percent of areas a year ago.
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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 11, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn traded just 1.50 cents lower to $4.52 ¼ on Tuesday. However, the modest close came after prices rebounded from being 8.50 cents lower earlier in the…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 11, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are lower.

  CORN
  May corn traded just 1.50 cents lower to $4.52 ¼ on Tuesday. However, the modest close came after prices rebounded from being 8.50 cents lower earlier in the session. Futures were able to hold above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

  Volatility in the crude oil market has so far supported grains this week despite Monday’s key reversal.

  To no surprise, the USDA left its U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged in this month’s WASDE report. Ending stocks for 2025/26 were steady at 2.127 billion bushels. The current stocks-to-use ratio is sitting at about 13 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 season.

  More focus will be on the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. Eyes are on corn disappearance and the possibility of USDA lowering feed and residual usage, which is currently forecasted at a record.

  SOYBEANS
  May soybeans traded a modest 5.50 cents higher to close at $12.01 ¾ on Tuesday. Like corn, prices rebounded from their intraday lows.

  Soybean oil continued to lead the soybean complex higher overnight. Crude oil and heating oil continue to be in the driver’s seat of the oilseeds rally. Fundamentals have been pushed aside by geopolitical risks the past couple of weeks.

  Bunge said the recent spike in oilseed prices has spurred additional farmer selling in North and South America. The crop giant said it’s positioned to adapt to the recent turmoil by shifting which ports it’s moving products through.

  Monthly customs data showed that China’s soybean imports for the first two months of 2026 are down 7.8 percent year-over-year and the slowest since 2019.

  WHEAT
  May Chicago wheat was the weakest among the grains and oilseeds on Tuesday after closing 12.25 cents lower at $5.91. Prices had gapped open lower during the overnight session and continued to feel pressure from Monday’s key reversal.

  Prices were able to rebound again last night, with the market retracing yesterday’s losses and climbing back above $6.

  The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged in yesterday’s WASDE report. Ending stocks were steady at 931 million bushels, up 9.4 percent year-over-year and the largest since the 2019/20 season. Global ending stocks are at a five-year high.

  India’s agriculture ministry said the country’s wheat production is expected to hit a record 120.2 MMT, up from last season’s 118 MMT.
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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  USDA keeps domestic grain stocks steady in March WASDE

  The USDA’s March WASDE report broadly lived up to expectations of little to no change to the U.S. and global balance sheets. The war in Iran is likely at the forefront of market trade, as grains had little reaction to the latest estimates. Market participants are likely looking ahead to the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 10, 2026

  The USDA’s March WASDE report broadly lived up to expectations of little to no change to the U.S. and global balance sheets. The war in Iran is likely at the forefront of market trade, as grains had little reaction to the latest estimates.

  Market participants are likely looking ahead to the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports at the end of the month.

  CORN
  The U.S. corn balance sheet was left unchanged for the month. The 2025/26 carryout is forecast at 2.127 billion pounds, the highest since the 2018/19 season.

  

  Future WASDE reports may highlight demand adjustments. As previously noted, exports are still running ahead of the current forecast, while ethanol use is running slightly behind.

  The USDA raised its Brazilian corn production forecast to 132 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The increase was due to higher expected area for the first-season corn crop. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn production forecast was lowered to 52 MMT, down 1 MMT. The agency cited dryness throughout February as the reason for lower yields.

  Global corn ending stocks were raised to 292.8 MMT, up 3.8 MMT from the previous estimate. The increase was due to higher stocks in Brazil, Ukraine, and India.

  SOYEANS
  U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from the previous month at 350 million bushels.

  U.S. soybean imports were raised by 5 million bushels due to higher imports observed on the East Coast. That was offset by a 5 million-bushel increase in crush demand.

  Despite the increase in crush, soybean oil production was lowered by 20 million pounds due to lower extraction rates.

  Soybean oil used for biofuel production was lowered by 800 million pounds based on relatively lower usage than initially forecasted. That was mostly offset by a 750 million pound increase in food, feed, and other use.

  The USDA lowered Argentina’s soybean production forecast by 500,000 metric tons (MT) to 48 million. The reduction was due to lower yield expectations from recent dryness. Global ending stocks were reduced by 0.2 MMT due to lower supplies for India and Ukraine.

  WHEAT
  The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged for the month, with 2025/26 ending stocks forecast at 931 million bushels. The carryout is forecast to be 9 percent higher than the previous season and the largest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

  Global wheat ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 MMT to 277 million but remained at a five-year high. Argentina’s exports were raised by 1.5 MMT to a record 19.5 million, as the country’s wheat prices remain the lowest among major exporters.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 10, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower following yesterday’s key market reversal. Stock futures are lower. CORN Corn futures traded sharply lower on Monday after posting a huge key market reversal. The May contract reached as high as $4.76 before closing…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 10, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower following yesterday’s key market reversal. Stock futures are lower.

  CORN
  Corn futures traded sharply lower on Monday after posting a huge key market reversal. The May contract reached as high as $4.76 before closing 6.75 cents lower on the day at $4.53 ¾.

  Pressure continued overnight, though prices rebounded from their lows after selling dried up above the 100-day moving average.

  Volatility in the crude oil market will likely influence the grain trade. President Trump said he was open to speaking with Iran, though the president has been vocal about Iran agreeing to “unconditional surrender.”

  The USDA will release its WASDE report later today. Small adjustments are expected for the U.S. balance sheet. An emphasis on relatively large ending stocks could continue to pressure the old crop market.

  The current stocks-to-use ratio is sitting at about 13 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 season.

  SOYBEANS
  Soybeans also posted a key reversal on Monday after trading 33 cents higher to as high as $12.33 before closing 4.50 cents lower at $11.76 ¼.

  Like corn, prices underwent additional pressure overnight before bouncing back and trading slightly above yesterday’s close ahead of the morning session.

  U.S. soybean export inspections were higher year-over-year for a second week. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year remain about 30 percent below the previous season as of March 5.

  Today’s WASDE report could leave the U.S. soybean balance sheet unchanged this month. Soybean exports need to pick up in order to meet the USDA’s target, but the agency may hold off on lowering the forecast.

  The current soybean stocks-to-use ratio has been in neutral territory for most of the season. That has left speculation over Chinese soybean purchases and biofuel demand as the main driver of price action this winter.

  WHEAT
  May Chicago wheat topped $6.41 ¾ a bushel early on Monday before reversing lower and closing 13.50 cents lower at $6.03 ¼. Prices fought back to hold above the $6 handle overnight after an initial move lower.

  Last week’s successful test of the 200-day moving average is a positive for the market. Yesterday’s high may have marked the top end of a potential trading range.

  Again, no major adjustments are expected for the U.S. wheat balance sheet in today’s report. No changes are expected for global ending stocks.

  Yesterday’s export inspections data showed improvement for wheat movements. Year-to-date inspections are running about 20 percent ahead of the previous season.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 9, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Monday following the overnight session. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to boost the grain market. CORN A sharp two-day surge late in the week landed May corn futures 12 cents higher last week to $4.60 ¼ a bushel. Open interest was 6,157 contracts higher, while…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 9, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Monday following the overnight session. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to boost the grain market.

  CORN
  A sharp two-day surge late in the week landed May corn futures 12 cents higher last week to $4.60 ¼ a bushel. Open interest was 6,157 contracts higher, while volume was a record for the contract, suggesting real buyers stepping in after recent short-covering.

  Prices punched through the top end of their trading range from the fall and early winter, rising to the highest in more than 8 months overnight. December prices tested resistance just below $5 but faced selling pressure just shy of the level.

  Crude oil prices continued to lead corn and other grains and oilseeds sharply higher to start the week. The market has been pricing in more risk amid expectations of higher demand for ethanol.

  Tomorrow’s WASDE report is not expected to shake up the markets. The pre-report estimates were posted on Friday for the grain markets.

  AgRural reported that Brazil’s Safrinha corn planting reached 82 percent complete as of last week. Progress is the slowest since 2022. The firm noted that there is concern in some areas of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul due to the lack of moisture.

  SOYBEANS
  May soybeans experienced strong weekly gains of 30 cents last week to finish at $12 on Friday. Prices continued their rally in the overnight session after a gap open higher in the overnight session.

  Soybean oil futures surged more than 4 percent higher at last night’s open amid the spike in energy prices. Major vegetable oil competitors also saw similar price spikes.

  The March Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month could draw more attention to the possibility of soybeans buying more acres after the recent surge.

  On a side note, soybean meal futures in China hit limit-up overnight.

  AgRural reported that half of Brazil’s soybean harvest was complete as of last week. Progress remained 10 percentage points behind last year’s pace.

  WHEAT
  Sharply lower prices to start the week ended with a surge in wheat prices last week. The May Chicago contract gained 25.25 cents to close above the $6 level. Prices broke above the 200-day moving average, which was expected to act as resistance.

  Sharp gains in corn and soybeans flipped the script on the pressure in the wheat market. Prices have now rallied the most since 2024. Wartime premium continued to build in the market despite bearish fundamentals.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Iran war to overshadow March WASDE?

  The USDA will release its March WASDE report on Tuesday, offering the potential for additional adjustments to the U.S. and global balance sheets. It’s likely that the latest price impacts from the erupting conflict between the U.S. and Iran could overshadow Tuesday’s report. Or, it could offer a reality check to the current price action…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 6, 2026

  The USDA will release its March WASDE report on Tuesday, offering the potential for additional adjustments to the U.S. and global balance sheets.

  It’s likely that the latest price impacts from the erupting conflict between the U.S. and Iran could overshadow Tuesday’s report. Or, it could offer a reality check to the current price action experienced this past week. But anticipation from the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports at the end of the month will likely take larger precedent over the direction of the grain trade leading into the spring.

  CORN
  Minimal changes are expected for next week’s report, according to a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates. The U.S. corn carryout is seen just 4 million bushels higher than the February forecast at 2.131 billion bushels.

  

  Current pace analysis suggests the USDA could raise its corn export forecast, as shipments already having a tremendous lead this season.

  Additionally, the corn ethanol use pace is running behind the USDA’s target, suggesting a possible revision lower later in the marketing year. There is time for the pace to pick up, but ethanol production efficiencies and higher sorghum use has been digging into corn ethanol demand this season.

  Argentina’s corn crop forecast is expected to remain unchanged at 53 MMT. Brazil’s corn forecast could increase slightly, according to the Bloomberg survey. World corn ending stocks are seen just 500,000 MT higher than the previous month at 289.5 MMT.

  SOYBEANS
  U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to decline just 4 million bushels from February to 346 million.

  Exports remain the largest risk to the balance sheet. The current pace of commitments is running behind the past couple of years despite President Trump saying China could buy more soybeans this season.

  There are slight expectations for the USDA to lower its Brazilian soybean production forecast. Well-followed private forecasters recently reduced their production estimates due to ongoing dryness in Southern Brazil. The agency will likely leave its Argentinian production forecast unchanged, according to the average analyst guess.

  Global ending stocks are expected to fall by 500,000 MT to 125 MMT.

  WHEAT
  U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to decline by 5 million bushels to 926 million.

  Wheat export commitments are running at a fair pace yet this season. The USDA may be comfortable leaving the current forecast unchanged at 900 million bushels.

  Global wheat ending stocks are seen at 277.5 MMT, unchanged from the previous month.

  Again, the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran may overshadow Tuesday’s report, especially if the numbers bring no surprises. The ongoing acreage debate may capture more attention from the market amid the recent surge in soybean futures.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 6, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Friday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is trading at the highest in nearly two years amid the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Stock futures traded sharply lower again and are testing support levels from Tuesday’s low. CORN Corn futures…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 6, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Friday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is trading at the highest in nearly two years amid the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Stock futures traded sharply lower again and are testing support levels from Tuesday’s low.

  CORN
  Corn futures rallied sharply higher on Thursday, with the May contract posting gains of 9.75 cents to close at $4.53 ½. Follow-through buying took prices higher again overnight, with futures quickly approaching resistance levels around $4.60.

  The sharp rally in crude oil futures continued to be the driving force for the grains, with spot futures approaching $90 a barrel.

  The USDA will release its March WASDE report on Tuesday. Minor changes are expected for the U.S. balance sheets. We will release the pre-report survey estimates later today.

  Ukrainian port authorities said a Russian drone hit a Panama-flagged vessel in the Black Sea this week, signaling renewed risks to grain shipping in the region amid the ongoing war.

  Argentinian farmers have begun harvesting early-season corn, with progress at 7.2 percent. Crop conditions remain mostly favorable, with 87.4 percent of the late-planted crop in good/excellent condition.

  SOYBEANS
  Soybean futures resumed their rally on Thursday after trading 9.75 cents higher to close at $11.79 ¼. Prices posted fresh highs overnight amid ongoing strength in the crude oil market that seeped into soybean oil.

  Soybean oil prices are set for their longest streak of gains in more than a decade, which has helped support the complex over the past couple of weeks.

  Brazil’s soybean exports were a record for February. The country’s trade ministry reported that shipments totaled 7.11 MMT, up nearly 11 percent year-over-year. China was the top destination.

  Argentinian soybean conditions stabilized over the past week following recent rain. Thirty percent of the crop was in excellent or good condition, up on percentage point from the previous week.

  A private firm in Brazil raised its forecast for the country’s soybean crop, declines from other private forecasters. Agroconsult forecasts output at 183.1 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 182.2. The firm said estimates have improved for most states despite challenging weather.

  WHEAT
  Wheat futures have benefited from the recent rally in the corn and soybean markets. The May Chicago contract rallied 15.50 cents on Thursday to close at $5.83 ¾ after successfully holding above the 200-day moving average.

  Prices rallied again overnight and are approaching resistance levels from last week’s high near $6.04.

  The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts global wheat output 3 percent lower this year, primarily due to lower wheat sowings in major producers, including Russia, the EU, and the United States.
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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  US corn export sales rebound, soy, wheat softens

  U.S. corn export inspections rebounded last week higher last week after dipping to multi-week lows, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending Feb. 26, net corn sales rose to 2.02 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. South Korea led the buying for the week, followed by Japan…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 5, 2026

  U.S. corn export inspections rebounded last week higher last week after dipping to multi-week lows, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending Feb. 26, net corn sales rose to 2.02 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. South Korea led the buying for the week, followed by Japan and Colombia. Total net sales of 154,000 metric tons (MT) for 2026/27 were reported for Japan.

  Physical exports were down 14 percent on the week at 1.70 MMT. Mexico was the top destination, followed by South Korea and Japan. Accumulated corn exports and sales for the marketing year rose to 64.98 MMT, up 31 percent year-over-year, reaching 78 percent of the USDA’s target.

  

  Net soybean export sales fell slightly last week to 383,500 MT for 2025/26. China remained the top buyer despite smaller reported volumes. The Netherlands, Egypt, and Indonesia also landed in the top five list of buyers. Unknown destinations canceled 253,500 MT of soybean sales for the current marketing year, the USDA reported.

  Outstanding sales for the current season are running 48 percent above a year ago due to counterseasonal buying from China. Meanwhile, accumulated exports remained 30 percent lower at 26.15 MMT. Total exports and commitments are running just 18 percent behind a year ago at 36.03 MMT.

  

  Soybean meal export sales declined last week to 255,800 MT. The Philippines was the top buyer, followed by Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. Weekly exports fell sharply to 261,500 MT, primarily destined for Mexico and the Philippines. Accumulated exports and commitments are running 11 percent ahead of last year at 12 MMT.

  Wheat export sales for the week ending Feb. 26 fell 42 percent to 203,100 MT for 2025/26. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam. Total net sales of 55,000 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Thailand.

  Physical exports fell 35 percent from the previous week to 348,900 MT, primarily destined for the Philippines and Mexico. Total exports and commitments are about 13 percent ahead of a year ago at 23.2 MMT. Commitments are running at the fastest pace out of the past five years.

  

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 5, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Thursday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher overnight following its recent pause in the rally. Crude oil is sharply higher and posted fresh highs overnight. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn futures traded 2.75 cents lower to close at $4.43 ¾ on Wednesday.…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 5, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Thursday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher overnight following its recent pause in the rally. Crude oil is sharply higher and posted fresh highs overnight. Stock futures are lower.

  CORN
  May corn futures traded 2.75 cents lower to close at $4.43 ¾ on Wednesday. Prices had dipped below a near-term support area before fighting to stay in the old trading range.

  The current uptrend remains in place despite the sharp reversal from Monday’s highs.

  U.S. corn export sales rebounded last week after slumping to low volumes the previous week. Net sales for the current season totaled 2.02 MMT, driven by larger sales to South Korea, Japan, and Colombia.

  U.S. ethanol production continued to move at a record this season, but corn crush is slightly lower than a year ago.

  SovEcon projects Ukraine’s 2025/26 corn production to be 6 percent lower than the previous season due to reduced planted area. Lower seedings were due to a shift to more profitable oilseeds.

  SOYBEANS
  Steadier trade for the soybean market on Wednesday after trading just 1 cent lower to $11.69 ½. Losses in soybean meal continued after a sharp decline.

  Meanwhile, soybean oil is set for its longest rally in a decade amid rising crude oil prices and biofuel optimism. We continue to see a direct response to escalating conflicts in the Middle East reflected in the market.

  The EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations proposal was sent to the Office of Management and Budget for review. Industry groups hope that the finalized RVOs will be released by the end of the month.

  U.S. soybean export sales continued to soften last week, falling to 383,500 MT, compared to 407,100 MT the previous week. China remained the top buyer for the week, while unknown destinations canceled 253,500 MT of soybean sales.

  WHEAT
  Wheat prices continued to fade yesterday after the May Chicago contract lost 5.75 cents to close at $5.68 ¼. Prices are hovering above the 200-day moving average.

  U.S. winter wheat areas experiencing drought conditions increased to 50 percent over the past week, according to the latest Drought Monitor. That compared to just 22 percent a year ago.

  Widespread showers are expected to bring much-needed moisture to certain areas this week, though HRW wheat areas could miss out on much of the precipitation.

  Statistics Canada said Canadian wheat plantings for the 2026/27 season are expected to decline by 1.1 percent to 26.74 MMT, slightly higher than the pre-report survey estimate. Plantings are expected to remain above the five-year average amid “strong global demand.”
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 4, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar took a breather from recent gains after rising to a three-month high on Tuesday. Crude oil is moderately lower following yesterday’s sharp gains. Stock futures are higher after rebounding from their lows on Tuesday. CORN The nearby corn futures contract attempted…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 4, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar took a breather from recent gains after rising to a three-month high on Tuesday. Crude oil is moderately lower following yesterday’s sharp gains. Stock futures are higher after rebounding from their lows on Tuesday.

  CORN
  The nearby corn futures contract attempted another run above the 200-day moving average on Tuesday. Prices failed to hold onto gains reversing much of the move and closing just 0.75 cents higher at $4.46 ½.

  Prices further dipped below the 100-day moving average overnight, and below the $4.44 support level, which had largely contained price gains throughout the winter.

  The USDA reported this morning the flash sale of 125,000 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers for the current marketing year. U.S. corn remains competitively priced on the global stage.

  That remains apparent in weekly export data despite last week’s disappointing print.

  Weather conditions remain broadly favorable for Brazil’s Safrinha planting and crop development. Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions alluded to some risks of drier conditions over the next few months. However, there are no apparent risks to crop production yet.

  SOYBEANS
  Soybean futures have been the most resilient among the grains and oilseeds amid the conflict with Iran. The nearby May contract traded 6.5 cents higher on Tuesday to close at $11.70 ½ a bushel.

  Prices did close below mid-range for the day after struggling to hold near their recent highs. Soybean oil futures remain near contract highs, with crude oil lending some strength.

  Bloomberg reported that China desires to have steady relations with the U.S. ahead of a key summit between the nations’ leaders.

  President Trump called for insurance companies to continue insuring shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that China urged for earlier in the week.

  WHEAT
  Wheat futures traded in a wide range on Tuesday. May Chicago futures ultimately closed 3.25 cents lower at $5.74. Prices pushed lower again during the overnight session, as market exuberance continued to cool.

  The reversal from $6 could continue to add pressure. A test of the 200-day moving average is likely. Prices had previously held support after an initial move above the level last week. KC wheat futures may offer a similar test of support in the coming days.

  Data from UkrAgroConsult shows that global wheat prices have largely been rising over the past month, with HRW wheat leading the way.

  Statistics Canada will release its latest acreage update tomorrow for all wheat acreages. A pre-report survey expects acreage for the upcoming season to be at 26.4 million, down from 27.47 million last year.
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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – March 3, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to surge. Crude oil is sharply higher again amid ongoing airstrikes in the Middle East. Stock futures are sharply lower, with the S&P 500 testing support levels. CORN Corn futures struggled to hold onto gains, losing 2.75 cents on Monday…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  March 3, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to surge. Crude oil is sharply higher again amid ongoing airstrikes in the Middle East. Stock futures are sharply lower, with the S&P 500 testing support levels.

  CORN
  Corn futures struggled to hold onto gains, losing 2.75 cents on Monday to close at $4.45 ¾. However, another overnight run-up in crude oil prices lent better support to the corn market, allowing prices to hold in their old trading range above $4.44.

  A close above the 200-day moving average could trigger additional buying for old crop. The new crop December contract is testing the upper end of its wide trading range.

  U.S. corn used for ethanol totaled 461 million bushels in January down 1.5 percent from the same period a year ago. Total crushings for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 2.32 billion bushels, unchanged from a year ago.

  Corn export inspections during the week ending Feb. 26 fell slightly to 1.86 MMT, holding at the third-largest volume for the marketing year. Accumulated corn export inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year rose to 39.62 MMT, up 45 percent from the previous season.

  SOYBEANS
  Like corn, old crop soybeans struggled to hold onto their gains on Monday, losing 6.75 cents to close at $11.64. Prices did touch above their November highs before reversing lower.

  Higher energy prices overnight took soybean futures 17 cent higher early in the session before giving back some of those gains. Energy volatility and biofuel optimism have kept support under the soybean market for the short term.

  Trade negotiators for the U.S. and China are still expected to meet mid-month despite China’s opposition to the Iran attacks.

  U.S. soybean crushings totaled 227.9 million bushels in January, up 72 percent year-over-year. Year-to-date crushings for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 1.120 billion bushels, up 7.4 percent from the previous year and reaching 43.6 percent of the USDA’s target.

  WHEAT
  Chicago wheat futures experienced the sharpest losses in the grains yesterday. The May contract gapped open higher, touching above $6, before losing 14.25 cents to close at $5.77 ¼.

  Prices have recovered some overnight, but yesterday’s reversal may still challenge another leg higher. The short-term trend remains bullish, with support at the 200-day moving average around $5.63.

  Soil moisture levels remain low in winter wheat areas. Heavy rainfall is expected for parts of the Southern Plains and Mid-South over the next few days, though HRW wheat areas may miss out on key moisture.

  For the week ending Feb. 26, wheat export inspections totaled 344,300 MT, down 39 percent from the previous week and 12 percent lower than the same week last year. Year-to-date inspections remain 19 percent higher than the previous season at 18.62 MMT.
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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.