Tag: Wheat

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 16, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Tuesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell under heavy pressure early this week due to the expectation of rate cuts on Wednesday. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are mixed, though the S&P 500 continued to trade at all-time highs.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 16, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Tuesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell under heavy pressure early this week due to the expectation of rate cuts on Wednesday. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are mixed, though the S&P 500 continued to trade at all-time highs. 

  CORN

  December corn is up 3.75 cents at $4.27. March corn is up 3.50 cents at $4.44 ½. 

  Futures were dragged down on Monday after facing resistance at $4.28 ½ on the December contract. Again, a close above $4.30 would be positive. Prices could still try to fill the July 4 gap at $4.32.

  Harvest pressure could limit gains over the next few weeks. The USDA reported that seven percent of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, compared to eight percent the same week last year. 

  Corn export inspections rose to 1.51 MMT last week, up from 1.44 MMT the previous week. Accumulated inspections rose to 2.61 MMT, up 106 percent year-over-year. 

  Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 17 percent of the summer corn planting was complete as of last week, compared to 19 percent a year ago. Rainfall is benefiting planting in southern Brazil. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are up 6 cents at $10.48 ¾. January soybeans are up 6.75 cents at $10.68 ½. Soybean oil is sharply higher. Soybean meal is moderately lower. 

  Despite yesterday’s break, soybean futures are holding above a trendline after breaking above the level on Friday. The strong rebound in soybean oil prices could provide support to the complex. November soybeans have yet to see a test of the August high around $10.62.

  The U.S. soybean harvest kicked off last week, according to the USDA. Five percent of the expected acreage was harvest, compared to six percent last year. Progress in Illinois and Indiana was behind last year’s progress but slightly ahead of the five-year average. 

  The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that the August soybean crush was 189.8 million bushels, a record for the month. Large domestic capacity has kept crush volumes moving along at a record pace. 

  U.S. soybean export inspections rose to 804,000 MT, compared to 468,000 MT the previous week. Year-to-date inspections rose to 1.07 MMT, up 43 percent from the previous year despite a slower start to exports. 

  WHEAT

  December Chicago wheat is up 4.75 cents at $5.29 ¾. KC wheat is up 6 cents at $5.20. Spring wheat is down 0.75 cents at $5.71. 

  Chicago futures posted gains for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday since rallying from contract lows last Thursday. 

  U.S. winter wheat planting reached 11 percent complete as of Sunday, down two percentage points from the same time last year. 

  U.S. wheat export inspections last week totaled 755,000 MT, compared to 429,000 MT the previous week. Volumes were well above the five-year average. Year-to-date inspections rose to 7.86 MMT, up 12 percent from last year’s pace. 

  France’s agriculture ministry raised the country’s wheat crop estimate to 33.3 MMT, up from the August estimate of 33.1 MMT. Production is expected to be 30 percent higher than the previous season and 4.7 percent above the five-year average.

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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 15, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the USDA’s WASDE report on Friday. The U.S. dollar is lower as the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision on Wednesday. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 15, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the USDA’s WASDE report on Friday. The U.S. dollar is lower as the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision on Wednesday. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher. 

  CORN

  December corn is down 4.25 cents at $4.25 ¾. March corn is down 4.50 cents at $4.42 ¾. 

  The USDA’s addition of 1.3 million harvested acres in Friday’s WASDE report initially pressured corn futures post-report before rallying later in the session to finish 10 ¼ cents higher on the day. 

  Harvested acres are expected to be the highest since 1933. Additionally, the 2025/26 corn carryout forecast remained above 2 billion bushels due to strong production estimates offsetting demand increases. 

  Bullish price action help futures break above their consolidation range following the Aug. 29 rally. The rally in the face of a seemingly bearish report is positive, especially if December futures can close above $4.30.

  The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 148,971 MT of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. 

  Brazilian consultancy firm Safras and Mercado forecasts the country’s summer corn production at 25.4 MMT, up from the previous year’s 24.7 MMT. Total corn production is expected to reach 142.5 MMT, up from the estimated 140.1 MMT. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are up 0.50 cents at $10.46 ¾. January soybeans are up 0.25 cents at $10.65 ½. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is pushing lower to start the week. 

  Like corn, the soybean numbers came in on the bearish side of pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE report. That didn’t stop November soybeans from rallying 12 ¾ cents on Friday. 

  The USDA raised its 2025/26 ending stocks forecast by 10 million bushels to 300 million. Reduced exports offset a lower production number and a higher domestic crush. 

  The National Oilseed Processors Association will release its soybean crush estimate for August later today. Pre-report expectations are leaning toward a 14 percent increase from a year ago at 180.1 million bushels. 

  WHEAT

  December Chicago wheat is up 1.25 cents at $5.24 ¾. KC wheat is unchanged at $5.14 ¾. Spring wheat is down 2 cents at $5.69 ¾. 

  After an initial move lower on Friday, Chicago futures rallied late in the session and closed 2 cents higher on the day, rising in sympathy with corn and soybeans. The wheat complex was more reluctant to move higher despite U.S. ending stocks coming in below market expectations. 

  However, a large increase in world ending stocks was likely what limited gains last week. Heavy global competition remains, but the USDA raised the wheat export forecast by another 25 million bushels due to strong HRW exports. 

  World wheat production was raised by 9.3 MMT, with ending stocks up about 4 MMT and are now slightly above the 2024/25 season.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  USDA increases corn production despite lower yield

  The USDA released its September WASDE report on Friday, offering some bearish surprises. However, post-report trade may be looking past higher supplies. Tags: Corn, Soybeans, Chicago Wheat, Spring Wheat, KC Wheat

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 12, 2025

  The USDA released its September WASDE report on Friday, offering some bearish surprises. However, post-report trade may be looking past higher supplies. 

  CORN

  The USDA provided the expected cut in corn yields, lowering the average yield forecast to 186.7 bushels per acre (bpa). However, harvested acreage was raised to 90 million acres, up 1.3 million from the August forecast due to FSA certified acreage data. Total production was increased to a new record of 16.81 billion bushels.

  

  Corn exports for the 2025/26 season were raised by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion to account for higher production and the current pace of commitments for the season. Exports for 2024/25 were raised by 10 million bushels to 2.83 billion. 

  The 2025/26 carryout estimate was lowered to 2.11 billion bushels, down 7 million from the previous estimate. The stocks-to-use ratio tightened slightly from August to 13.1 percent.

  

  Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 281.4 million metric tons (MMT), 1.1 MMT from the previous estimate, due to lower supplies in China. 

  December corn prices traded a nickel higher and tested key resistance areas ahead of the report. Prices gave back those gains after the USDA came in with higher-than-expected production and ending stocks numbers. 

  Futures recovered from their post-report losses a traded shy of previous resistance levels. 

  SOYBEANS

  The USDA raised the harvested soybean acreage forecast to 80.3 million acres, up 200,000 from the previous estimate. The national average yield was lowered by just a tenth of a bushel to 53.5 bpa. 

  Total production was raised slightly to 4.3 billion bushels, compared to an expected decrease. 

  Soybean exports for the 2025/26 season were lowered to 1.685 billion bushels, down from 1.705 billion in August, due to increased export competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. However, soybean crush was raised by 15 million bushels due to stronger soybean meal exports. 

  The 2025/26 soybean ending stocks forecast was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million. That brought the stocks-to-use ratio up to 6.9 percent, which was still the lowest since the 202/23 season. 

  

  Global soybean ending stocks were lowered to 124 MMT, down 900,000 metric tons from August, primarily due to lower stocks from Argentina, Canada, and Bolivia. 

  November soybeans erased all of their pre-report gains following the WASDE’s release. However, prices rallied from their intraday lows and traded 15 cents higher during the afternoon. 

  WHEAT

  The USDA left the 2025/26 wheat production forecast unchanged from August at 1.927 billion bushels. 

  Wheat exports for the 2025/26 season were raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million. Higher exports lowered the ending stocks estimate below market expectations to 844 million bushels. 

  The stocks-to-use ratio tightened slightly to 41.1 percent. 

  
  Global wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 season were raised to 264.1 million metric tons, up 4 MMT from the previous report. The carryout is forecast to increase compared to the previous year after an initial forecast of a reduction. 

  

  The higher global production and ending stocks estimates weighed on winter wheat futures immediately following the report. However, a strong rebound in corn and soybean prices lifted the wheat complex back to intraday highs. 

  CROP TABLES

  

  

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 12, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher following Thursday’s losses. Stock futures are steady after posting new all-time highs yesterday.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 12, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher following Thursday’s losses. Stock futures are steady after posting new all-time highs yesterday. 

  CORN

  December corn is up 1.50 cents at $4.21 ¼. March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.38.

  Corn futures maintained their sideways consolidation trade after the December contract traded 2.75 cents higher on Thursday. Yesterday’s gains brought more buying interest after trading fairly quiet earlier in the week. 

  There have been anecdotal reports of poor corn yields as farmers began harvesting corn in Central Iowa due to issues with Southern Rust. Pre-report expectations point toward the USDA lowering corn yields during today’s WASDE report. It’s likely the agency could slow-play yield cuts, while higher acres could lift overall production.

  China drastically cut its corn import estimate for the 2024/25 season to 3 MMT, the lowest in eight years. However, the government left its 2025/26 import forecast at 7 MMT. 

  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged reported that Argentine farmers began planting the 2025/26 season corn, with 3.8 percent of the crop planted. The exchange said corn acres are expected to increase by 9.6 percent this year as farmers shift away from beans. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are down 0.50 cents at $10.33. January soybeans are down 0.75 cents at $10.51 ¾. Soybean oil is higher for the third consecutive session. Soybean meal is lower and reversing the previous day’s gains. 

  Strong soybean meal prices lifted November soybean futures 8.25 cents higher on Thursday, keeping prices in their sideways range and above the $10.21 support area. Prices have been consolidating between long-term moving averages as the market awaits another signal for direction.

  The current U.S. soybeans stocks-to-use ratio suggests soybeans are undervalued. However, global supplies and the lack of sales to China have been a major weight on the market. 

  The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 22,000 MT of soybean oil to South Korea for the 2025/26 marketing year. 

  China raised its 2024/25 soybean import forecast to 104 MMT due to improving crush margins driving demand. 

  WHEAT

  December Chicago wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.18 ¾. KC wheat is down 3.75 cents at $5.06 ¼. Spring wheat is down 0.50 cents at $5.71.

  Chicago futures rallied on Thursday, trading 6.50 cents higher after posting contract lows in the overnight session. Speculative short-covering likely helped trigger the rally, though higher open interest for the session suggests some true buying was also a factor. 

  Unfortunately, similar rallies we’ve seen this summer have not translated to an end to the downtrend. Low volatility and bearish fundamentals would keep a lid on prices. 

  
  Today’s WASDE report is not expected to bring much change to the U.S. balance sheet. Changes are likely to come to the global balance sheet, specifically, higher Russian wheat production.

  Russian and French wheat export prices are currently cheaper than the U.S.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Lackluster crop export sales to start new season

  Despite disappointing corn export sales to start the marketing year, total commitments are running ahead of last year. Soybean export sales continued to run at seasonally low levels, while wheat sales softened.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 11, 2025

  

  The USDA released its latest export sales data Thursday morning for the week ending Sept. 4. 

  CORN

  Net corn export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year fell to 539,900 metric tons (MT), compared to 1.84 million metric tons (MMT) the previous week. Volumes slipped below the five-year average for the first time since July. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Japan and unknown buyers. 

  Exports last week totaled 1.44 MMT. Of the total, 752,000 MT were for 2024/25, and 687,300 MT were for the current 2025/26 season. Mexico was the top destination for both marketing years. 

  The USDA said exports for the 2024/25 season finished at 54.28 MMT. Exports for the start of the 2025/26 marketing year are up 23 percent year-over-year. 

  

  Despite lackluster corn sales to start the marketing year, total commitments are running ahead of last year. 

  Soybeans

  Net soybean sales for 2025/26 totaled 541,100 MT, down from 818,500 MT the previous week. Volumes were well below the five-year average for the week and the lowest print for the 2025/26 season since July.

  Exports for the week totaled 640,200 MT last week. Of the total, 406,600 MT were for 2024/25, and 233,600 MT were for 2025/26. Mexico was the top destination for both marketing years. 

  Total exports for 2024/25 finished at 50.11 MMT. Exports for the start of the 2025/26 marketing year are down 26 percent from the previous season. 

  

  China’s absence on the sales sheet continued to weigh on the total pace of commitments to start the new season. Export commitments are running 34 percent behind last season. 

  Soybean meal export sales rose sharply last week to 357,500 MT, compared to just 141,400 MT the previous week. Combined sales were well above the five-year average for the week. 

  Exports fell 20 percent last week to 250,100 MT, primarily destined for the Philippines, Australia, and Mexico. Accumulated shipments rose to 14.1 MMT, up 13 percent from a year ago. 

  WHEAT

  Net wheat export sales fell two percent last week to 305,400 MT. Japan was the top buyer for the week, followed by Indonesia. 

  Exports fell 60 percent to 356,500 MT. Accumulated exports rose to 6.85 MMT, up 13.6 percent year-over-year. 

  

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 11, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower following three days of gains. Stock futures are higher.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 11, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower following three days of gains. Stock futures are higher. 

  CORN

  December corn is unchanged at $4.17. March corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.35. 

  Trading interest has dropped substantially this week ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Friday. Limited trade took December corn futures 2 ¾ cents lower on Wednesday. 

  U.S. ethanol production surged 2.8 percent last week to an average of 1.105 million barrels a day, a record for the week. It’s likely the USDA could lower its 2024/25 corn ethanol crush forecast tomorrow, given that the current pace is well behind in reaching the current target. Ethanol stocks rose 1.2 percent to 22.84 million barrels and remained below year-ago levels. 

  The USDA reported that net corn export sales last week total 540,000 MT, compared to 1.84 MMT the previous week. Volumes slipped below the five-year average for the first time since July. 

  Brazil’s National Supply Company raised its 2024/25 corn production estimate to 139.7 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 137 MMT. 

  The Rosario Grain Exchange said Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production could be a record 61 MMT due to a shift away from soybeans. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are up 6.50 cents at $10.31 ¾. January soybeans are up 6.50 cents at $10.51 ¼. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is higher. 

  The lack of trading interest in the grains sent November soybeans 6 cents lower on Wednesday. Prices continued to hold above the Sept. 4 low, which is currently minor support. 

  Current forecasts will continue to aid crops in drying ahead of harvest. However, moisture deficits are becoming prominent throughout Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. 

  Soybean export sales fell 541,000 MT, compared to 795,000 MT the previous week. Volumes were well below the five-year average for the week and the lowest print for the 2025/26 season since July. 

  Conab raised its 2024/25 soybean production estimate to 171.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 169.7 MMT. 

  WHEAT

  December Chicago wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.12 ¼. KC wheat is down 3.50 cents at $5.03 ½. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.68 ½. 

  Chicago wheat futures posted fresh contract lows overnight after trading 5.25 cents lower on Wednesday. Prices are currently testing the ice on support levels at current lows. It’s been difficult for the market to ignore strong global supplies despite a good pace of exports this season. 

  Friday’s WASDE report is not expected to bring many changes for the U.S. wheat balance sheet. Noticeable changes will likely be global. The USDA has only made changes to wheat ending stocks in September only once out of the past five years. 

  Russian-based research firm SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production forecast a second time this week to 87.2 MMT, up from 86.1 MMT. The increase reflected strong yields in some areas. For some perspective, Russia’s 2025/26 production was initially forecast to be a four-year low. Now, output is expected to be higher than last year and is nearing previous records.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 10, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 10, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher. 

  CORN

  December corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.19 ½. March corn is unchanged at $4.37 ½. 

  Futures traded in a tighter range on Tuesday, closing 2 cents lower on the day. Futures have been more range-bound this week after blowing past one-month highs last week. Near-term resistance is around last week’s high of $4.24 ¾.

  
  Futures may trade quietly over the next couple of days ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Friday. Again, pre-trade expectations are calling for lower yields and production. But a reduction in supply could be partially offset by lower demand, leaving ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. 

  Disease pressures around much of the Corn Belt could warrant a decrease in yields. Damage from the frost event this past weekend is likely isolated to small areas. 

  Rain continued to reach southern Brazil this week, helping with moisture conditions for summer corn planting. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $10.29 ½. January soybeans are down 1.50 cents at $10.49. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower. 

  Soybean futures traded lower on Tuesday despite a rally in soybean meal. Soybean oil was likely the anchor on the complex from traders unraveling spreads. Soybeans could face resistance around the 200-day moving average at $10.36. A stronger move to the upside in soybean meal could also lift soybeans. 

  Senate GOP leaders introduced legislation that would prevent the Trump administration from reallocating RVOs from smaller refineries to larger ones. That comes after the EPA approved a backlog of small refinery exemptions. The possibility of those obligations not being reallocated has been pressuring bean oil. 

  President Trump expressed plans to impose more tariffs on China and India to put pressure on Russia. However, he won’t impose the duties unless EU nations do the same. 

  Scattered showers are helping early-season soybean planting in southern Brazil. Farmers are waiting for rainfall to begin planting in central Brazil. 

  WHEAT

  December Chicago wheat is up 0.50 cents at $5.20 ¾. KC wheat is 1.25 cents lower at $5.11 ½. Spring wheat is down 0.50 cents at $5.73 ½.

  Like corn, wheat has been range-bound this week after posting fresh contract lows last Thursday. Support remains at that low of $5.14 ½ on the Chicago contract. 

  Large domestic and global wheat stocks remain an issue for the market. The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report at the end of the month will offer another look at what is in producer and commercial hands. 

  IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat production to 87 MMT, up 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The revision was do to a “record high” yield in the eastern part of the Russian wheat belt.

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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Will the September WASDE bring lower yields?

  Analysts anticipate modest yield cuts for corn and soybeans, with record-large corn production still in the cards. Corn carryout is projected above 2 billion bushels, while soybean exports face pressure from weak Chinese demand. Wheat changes are expected to be minimal.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 9, 2025

  

  The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, offering another looking into the 2025 growing season. Following last month’s snafu of the USDA’s corn production estimate coming in well above market expectations, eyes will remain on yield and acreage.

  After relying heavily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery for last month’s report, the September WASDE will be a more “boots on the ground” look at U.S. crops. 

  CORN

  Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey of analysts’ estimates expects yields to fall to 186 bushels per acre (bpa), from last month’s record forecast of 188.8 bpa. Production is expected to decline 240 million bushels from the previous month to 16.5 billion, still a record. 

  The USDA’s Crop Progress report on Monday showed that four percent of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sept. 7, particularly in the South. With harvest underway, more is becoming known about how the crop is actually shaping up. 

  The 2025/26 corn carryout is expected to remain above 2 billion bushels despite an expected decrease in production. 

  The USDA is currently forecasting record corn demand in all categories. If the agency comes down on production, it wouldn’t be surprising to see lower demand. The feed and residual usage may be the first category to see a downward adjustment due to historically low cattle numbers. 

  SOYBEANS

  Soybean yields are expected to come down slightly in this month’s report to 53.2 bpa, down from the previous record forecast of 53.6 bpa. August was quite dry, particularly in the Eastern Ag Belt, as crops moved through final development stages. 

  Many areas have gone about a month without any rainfall, which likely impacted yield potential since July’s heavy rainfall. 

  Total production is expected to decline by about 30 million bushels to 4.26 billion. 

  On the demand side, it’s likely the USDA could lower the 2025/26 export forecast. China currently has zero bushels of soybeans from the U.S. on the books. Additionally, the country was back to importing record volumes of soybeans in August without the help of U.S. shipments.

  Outstanding sales are running at the slowest pace since the 2019/20 season, though sales outside of China are strong. 

  The 2025/26 soybean carryout is expected to be slightly lower than last month at 287 million bushels. 

  WHEAT

  The September WASDE is typically a non-event for the wheat market, with adjustments only made once during the month out of the last five years. The USDA will likely leave production unchanged. 

  Ending stocks are expected to get a slight reduction of 6 million bushels to 863 million. 

  Exports have been moving along rapidly this season, with exports running at 27 percent of the USDA’s current target, compared to the five-year average of 25 percent. The agency may hold off on raising its export forecast due to strong global competition. 

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 9, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following late-session gains on Monday. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher for a second day. Stock futures are steady to higher.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 9, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following late-session gains on Monday. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher for a second day. Stock futures are steady to higher.

  CORN
  December corn is down 2 cents at $4.19 ¾. March corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.37 ¼.

  December futures rebounded on Monday following Friday’s week close. Prices have been consolidating over the past few days after their initial 30-surge from contract lows.

  Lower open interest suggests much of yesterday’s move was likely driven by speculative short-covering. Prices defended last week’s lows, as demand works to offset the upcoming record harvest.

  Ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects a declining in corn yields and production. The 2025/26 corn carryout is expected to remain at 2 billion bushels due to record production.

  U.S. corn ratings dropped one percent last week to 68 percent good-to-excellent, compared to 64 percent last year. Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa saw a large decline from the previous week.

  SOYBEANS
  November soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $10.32. January soybeans are down 2.50 cents at $10.50 ¼. Soybean oil is lower, while meal is higher.

  Futures experienced a relief rally on Monday after last week’s sharp selloff. Prices caught a bid early by midday, with soybean meal offering support. Minor speculative short-covering likely helped drive prices higher yesterday.

  Prices recovered all of Friday’s losses but stopped short of the 200-day moving average, which could serve as resistance.

  U.S. soybean ratings fell one percent last week to 64 percent good-to-excellent. Ohio saw a larger drop compared to other states following the dry August.

  Bloomberg reported that Ukraine’s soybean shipments have effectively been halted. That comes amid confusion over a recent law that imposes a 10 percent tariff on non-producer exports of soybeans and rapeseed.

  Ukraine has been increasing its footprint as a global oilseed exporter, though its shipping season is heading into its typical seasonal lull.

  WHEAT
  December Chicago wheat is down 2.25 cents at $5.21 ½. KC wheat is down 3.50 cents at $5.13 ¾. Spring wheat is down 1.75 cents at $5.75.

  Futures rebounded on Monday, with the Chicago contract up 4.5 cents and the KC up 12 cents on the close. Open interest data suggests yesterday’s gains were led by really buying in what initially looked like short-covering.

  Large global wheat stocks could continue to limit gains, especially as public and private groups continue to raise production estimates in the Black Sea and other key producers.

  Canada’s wheat stocks at the end of July totaled 4.11 MMT, down 22 percent year-over-year. Strong demand for Canadian wheat has driven exports to a record this season.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 8, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil caught a bid overnight amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Stock futures are higher.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 8, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil caught a bid overnight amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Stock futures are higher. 

  CORN

  December corn is down 1.75 cents at $4.16 ¼. March corn is down 1.25 cents at $4.35 ¼. 

  December futures finished 1.75 cents lower on Friday. Prices had risen to a fresh one-and-a-half-month high early in the session before buying dried up and put the bear camp back in control going into the close. 

  The USDA’s WASDE report will be released on Friday. Yields are a large focus following a historically dry August, particularly for the Eastern Corn Belt. It’s possible the USDA may leave the national yield average unchanged or offer a slight reduction if the agency thinks yields in the Western Corn Belt are strong enough to offset declines. 

  A frost event occurred in the Upper Midwest over the weekend. While some crops could have been damaged, markets took little notice based on overnight price action.

  Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 12 percent of the country’s summer corn crop was planted as of last week, compared to 15 percent a year ago. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are up 1.25 cents at $10.28 ¼. January soybeans are up 1 cent at $10.46 ½. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower. 

  November futures traded 6 cents lower on Friday after posting a strong reversal day on Thursday. Last week’s losses came from weak product prices, which led to negative price action in the entire soybean complex. 

  China is back to exporting soybeans at a record pace after taking in 12.27 MMT in August. None of that came from the U.S. China has likely been buying extra tonnage from Brazil as a buffer against the current trade war with the U.S. 

  AgRural reported that soybean planting for the 2025/26 season has begun in Parana, with 0.02 percent of the crop seeded, compared to zero percent last year. 

  Southern Brazil has been receiving beneficial rainfall, allowing farmers to begin planting early. More rain is needed in Mato Grosso before farmers get too fired up about getting in the fields. 

  WHEAT

  December Chicago wheat is up 2.25 cents at $5.21 ½. KC wheat is up 2.50 cents at $5.07 ¾. Spring wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.66 ¼. 

  Like corn, wheat futures started Friday off on a positive note but later weakened into the close and finished slightly lower for the session. Prices are testing the ice after posting fresh contract lows on Thursday, with the level so far holding. 

  Russia exported about 4.4 MMT of wheat in August, rebounding from lower levels the previous month, according to Rusagrotrans. 

  There have been some reports of unfavorable weather for the current spring wheat harvest in Central Russia, which could be causing quality issues. Meanwhile, dry conditions have been leading to unfavorable wheat planting conditions in parts of the Black Sea. 

  Still, SovEcon raised its 2025/26 wheat production estimate again to 86.1 MMT, compared to the previous estimate of 85.4 MMT.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  US corn exports finish August with solid sales

  USDA’s latest export sales report showed record-setting new crop corn commitments and strong physical shipments, while soybeans lagged with the slowest new crop pace since 2019/20. Wheat sales and shipments are running well ahead of last year.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 5, 2025

  

  The USDA released its latest export sales data Friday morning for the week ending Aug. 28. 

  CORN

  Corn export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year were net negative of 280,900 metric tons (MT), a marketing year low. Mexico was still buying some old crop bushels, though they were mostly offset by reductions from unknown buyers. 

  New crop 2025/26 sales rose to 2.12 million metric tons (MMT), with volumes holding well above the five-year average. Mexico led the buying, followed by Colombia, and unknown destinations. 

  Outstanding sales for the upcoming marketing year rose to 20.89 MMT. Outstanding new crop sales for the 2025/26 season officially surpassed the 2021/22 season, marking a record pace for new crop sales.

  

  Physical exports rose 52 percent last week to 1.74 MMT, the highest weekly print since mid-June. Mexico led the shipments, followed by Japan and Colombia. 

  Accumulated exports for the marketing year rose to 68.33 MMT, up 26.5 percent year-over-year. 

  SOYBEANS

  Soybean export sales for the old crop year were a net negative of 23,800 MT. Buying from Vietnam and the Netherlands was largely offset by cancellations from unknown buyers, Mexico, and Taiwan. 

  New crop sales fell last week to 818,500 MT. Purchases were led by sales to unknown destinations and Mexico. New crop sales continued to move along below the five-year average, as China has zero sales for the upcoming season on the books. 

  Outstanding sales ahead of the new marketing year reached 8.05 MMT, 32 percent behind last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2019/20.

  

  Actual exports rose 12 percent last week to 457,000 MT, led by stronger shipments to Vietnam, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Total exports for the season remained 12 percent higher than a year ago at 49.75 MMT. 

  Soybean meal export sales softened for a second week to 141,400 MT, as old crop sales hit a marketing-year low ahead of the new season. New crop sales were below the five-year average for a second week. 

  Actual exports rose 57 percent to 311,600 MT, rebounding from disappointing shipments the previous week and rising well above the five-year average. Accumulated exports rose to 12.83 MMT, up 13 percent from the previous season. 

  WHEAT

  Net wheat export sales fell last week to 313,000 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year. Nigeria was the top buyer for the week, followed by Mexico and the Philippines. Export sales of 5,500 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Mexico. 

  Exports fell 11 percent to 890,600 MT, which remained well above seasonal averages. Total shipments rose to 6.49 MMT, up 16 percent from the previous season. 

  

  Total wheat export commitments rose to 12.42 MMT, up about 21 percent from last year and the best pace since the 2020/21 marketing year.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – September 5, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday to wrap up the holiday-shortened week. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower again, as OPEC+ members are expected to increase production targets this weekend. Stock futures are steady to higher.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 5, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday to wrap up the holiday-shortened week. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower again, as OPEC+ members are expected to increase production targets this weekend. Stock futures are steady to higher. 

  CORN

  December corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.21 ½. March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.39 ¼. 

  December futures traded 2.75 cents higher on Thursday after an initial move lower early in the session. 

  StoneX Group cut its U.S. corn yield estimate to 186.9 bpa, down from last month’s estimate of 188.1 bpa. However, total production was raised to 16.58 billion bushels, up from 16.32 billion. 

  We won’t have pre-report estimates until later next week, but there has been a lot of chatter leaning toward the USDA lowering corn yields in next week’s WASDE report. It’s certainly possible the agency could do so following a historically dry August.

  It’s also possible that the yield could remain unchanged if USDA thinks great yields out of the Western Corn Belt will offset reductions in eastern states. 

  SOYBEANS

  November soybeans are down 0.25 cents at $10.32 ¾. January soybeans are unchanged at 10.51 ½. Soybean oil is slightly lower, while soybean meal is higher. 

  Soybeans rebounded from their intraday lows on Thursday after facing pressure earlier in the session, leaving November soybeans 1.75 cents higher at the close. Selling pressure subsided in the product markets, allowing whole beans to move higher. 

  Though expanded crush capacity and proposals for higher biomass-based diesel blending could lead to a larger share of U.S. soybean oil used in future domestic biofuel production, delays in finalizing policy are keeping futures stuck near 51 cents.

  StoneX lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.2 bpa, down slightly from 53.6 bpa last month. Total production was lowered to 4.26 billion bushels, compared to last month’s 4.43 billion. 

  The USDA confirmed multiple flash sales of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year. One sale was for 123,000 MT, and the other was for 204,650 MT.

  WHEAT

  December wheat is up 0.75 cents at $5.20 ¼. KC wheat is down 0.50 cents at $5.05 ¾. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.71 ¼. 

  Contract lows in winter wheat lasted only a short period during the day session on Thursday before a lack of follow-through selling allowed for buyers to step in. Spring wheat struggled to find similar price action and consolidated most of the day, leaving futures 4 cents lower. 

  Weak prices have led to a large drop in wheat’s premium over corn, with the spread at just $1 for the December SRW wheat and corn contracts, compared to the summer peak of $1.68. That has been the result of a tighter global supply outlook for corn than wheat. 

  Continued rainfall in Argentina is raising production forecasts. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged said nearly all of the country’s wheat is in good/excellent condition.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.