Tag: Wheat

Corn, wheat export sales strong, soybeans slump

Corn sales jumped to 1.92 MMT with Mexico leading buyers, pushing commitments 75 percent above last year. Soybean sales slipped below average at 724,500 MT, while wheat bookings climbed to 540,000 MT with exports running above seasonal norms.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 25, 2025

The USDA released its latest export sales report Thursday morning for the week ending Sept. 18.

CORN

U.S. net corn export sales increased to 1.92 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year, compared to 1.23 MMT the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer for the week, followed by unknown destinations and Colombia.

Physical exports fell 15 percent from the previous week to 1.32 MMT. Mexico was the primary destination, followed by Japan. Accumulated exports for the season rose to 3.56 MMT, up about 60 percent year-over-year. Total commitments for the 2025/26 season rose to 25.8 MMT, up nearly 75 percent from a year ago.

SOYBEANS

Net soybean export sales fell last week to 724,500 MT for 2025/26, compared to 923,000 MT the previous week. Sales were well below the five-year average for this time of the year. Egypt was the top buyer for the week, followed by Taiwan and Mexico.

Exports fell slightly last week to 512,400 MT, with Egypt as the top destination. Accumulated exports rose to 1.58 MMT, up 24 percent year-over-year. Total commitments for the season rose to 11 MMT, down 38 percent from a year ago.

Soybean meal exports rose last week to 226,200 MT, though new crop sales were well below the five-year average for the second week. Venezuela was the top buyer of old crop, while Colombia was the largest buyer of new crop sales.

Exports fell to 228,500 MT from the previous week and were also lower than the same week last year. Accumulated exports remained 13 percent ahead of last year’s pace at 14.54 MMT. Sales for the new marketing year have been slowing compared to the past few seasons. Outstanding sales for 2025/24 reached 3.31 MMT, down 16.5 percent from 2024/25.

Soybean oil export sales rose to 30,000 MT last week. A bulk of the sales were from South Korea, rolling over tonnage from the current season to the next marketing year. Exports rose on the week to 8,800 MT, with accumulated shipments 321 percent higher than a year ago at 1.08 MMT.

WHEAT

Net wheat export sales rose last week to 539,800 MT for 2025/26, compared to 377,500 MT the previous week. The Philippines and Italy led the increase. Actual exports rose 16 percent from the previous week to 896,000 MT, with shipments surging well above their seasonal averages for a second week. Accumulated exports rose to 8.52 MMT, up 14 percent year-over-year. Total commitments for the 2025/26 season are up 22 percent from a year ago at 13.64 MMT.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 25, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower following yesterday’s surge on geopolitical tensions. Stock futures are lower again this morning.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 25, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower following yesterday’s surge on geopolitical tensions. Stock futures are lower again this morning.

CORN

December corn is up 3 cents at $4.27 ¼. March corn is up 3.25 cents at $4.44 ¼.

Futures traded fairly steady on Wednesday and closed 2 cents lower to $4.24 ¼ and held near the 100-day moving average. Prices may still try to challenge the $4.30 resistance area and confirm their bullish bias.

The USDA reported that U.S. corn export sales rose to 1.92 MMT last week, up from 1.23 MMT the previous week. Mexico was the primary buyer of those sales.

Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn planting in South America. More rain made its way into Central Brazil over the past few days, aiding moisture conditions.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are 6 cents higher at $10.15. January soybeans are up 5.75 cents at $10.34 ¼. Soybean oil and soybean meal are higher.

Futures traded in a wide range yesterday but ended up closing just 3 cents lower on the day. Prices have been consolidating the past few sessions after their recent 37-cent drop from Friday’s highs.

Prices seemed to find temporary support above the psychological level of $10. Futures gained ground this morning after Argentina paused its grain export tax reduction Wednesday evening.

Before the suspension, China had booked a total of 35 cargoes of soybeans from the country. That is the equivalent of about 2.27 MMT or 38 percent of Argentina’s projected exports this next season.

A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson urged the U.S. to cancel “unreasonable” tariffs to create conditions for bilateral trade in response to a question regarding U.S. soybean purchases.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 5.50 cents at $5.25. KC wheat is up 5.75 cents at $5.12 ½. Spring wheat is up 4 cents at $5.71 ¾.

Futures rejected a move higher yesterday, with KC wheat leading the complex lower. Chicago futures finished just 1 cent lower on the day. Tuesday’s reversal day could still provide support for futures, though large global supplies remain an anchor for prices.

U.S. wheat export sales rose to 540,000 MT last week, compared to 388,000 MT the previous week. The higher sales were driven by purchases from the Philippines and Italy.

IKAR raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast to 87.5 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 87 MMT. Russia’s winter wheat planting is progressing slowly, with former agriculture officials blaming the weather and high fuel costs.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 24, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar rose sharply overnight. Crude oil continued to rebound following yesterday’s gains. Stock futures are higher after losses during the previous session.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 24, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar rose sharply overnight. Crude oil continued to rebound following yesterday’s gains. Stock futures are higher after losses during the previous session.

CORN

December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.27. March corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.43 ½.

Futures traded 4 cents higher on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session. December futures may take another run at testing the $4.30 resistance area.

Harvest pressure will likely remain a factor as large supplies become available over the next two months. The 7-day anomaly forecast calls for below-normal precipitation for much of the Corn Belt through the final week of September.

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 312,956 MT of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are up 4.75 cents at $10.16 ¾. January soybeans are up 4 cents at $10.35 ¾. Soybean oil and soybean meal are higher.

Futures paused their recent selloff after finishing a steady 1.50 cents higher on Tuesday. Prices were able to finish higher despite soybean meal continuing to push lower. Soybean oil slipped below 50 cents a pound this week for the first time since mid-June, when prices had rallied following EPA’s bullish biofuel proposal.

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 101,400 MT of soybean meal sold to Guatemala for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Bloomberg reported that China booked another 10 cargoes of Argentinian soybeans this week, with volumes now totaling at least 1.3 MMT for November delivery. To reiterate from yesterday, those shipments are slated for the prime shipping window then the U.S. typically sends beans to China.

A trader Bloomberg quoted said China will likely accelerate purchases as long as the surprise export tax reduction remains in place.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 2.75 cents at $5.23 ¼. KC wheat is up 3 cents at 5.14 ½. Spring wheat is up 0.50 cents at $5.68 ¼.

Futures rebounded on Tuesday, closing 10 cents higher and reversing most of the previous session’s losses. Prices had posted fresh life of contract lows before reversing higher. Yesterday’s reversal could help the market form a bottom and stop the slow bleed we’ve seen over the past few months.

Russia continued to receive rainfall that could delay harvest progress this week and cause potential quality issues. However, private and public crop forecasts haven’t backed off from recent increases yet.

Overall, global wheat production remains in favorable condition in the eastern and western hemispheres.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 23, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following yesterday’s negative trade. The U.S. dollar continued to recover from last week’s lows. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are steady to higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 23, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following yesterday’s negative trade. The U.S. dollar continued to recover from last week’s lows. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are steady.

CORN

December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.22 ½. March corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.39 ¼.

December futures traded just 2.25 cents lower on Monday after recovering from losses earlier in the session. Corn had the best close out of the grain markets yesterday, with lower trade more of a sympathy move, compared to strong selling in soybeans and wheat.

The U.S. corn harvest progressed to 11 percent complete as of last week, compared to 13 percent the same week last year. Progress was still above the five-year average for the week, with harvest moving along quickly in the “I” states.

The USDA confirmed the flash sale of 122,947 MT of corn sold to Mexico. Of the total, 100,593 MT are for the 2025/26 marketing year, and 22,354 MT are for 2026/27.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 4 cents at $10.07. January soybeans are 3.50 cents lower at $10.27. Soybean oil is moderately lower. Soybean meal continued to push lower following Monday’s sharp losses.

November soybeans finished 14.50 cents lower on Monday, and closed about 37 cents lower than Friday’s high. Again, the lack of trade talk between President Trump and Xi on Friday led to downward pressure. The lack of soybean sales to China is old news, but hopes of China buying any U.S. beans are fading.

Chinese traders reportedly booked 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans after Argentina cut its export tax on grains until Oct. 31. Volumes of up to 650,000 MT are slated for delivery in November, which is during the prime U.S. shipping window.

The U.S. soybean harvest reached nine percent complete, compared to 12 percent a year ago. Progress was on par with the five-year average.

The European Commission proposed another delay to its deforestation law for another year. The rule prohibits imports of commodities such as rubber, soybeans, and beef from deforested areas.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 1 cent at $5.11 ¾. KC wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.02 ½. Spring wheat is up 0.50 cents at $5.64 ½.

Chicago futures led the complex lower, finishing 11.75 cents lower on Monday and posting fresh life of contract lows. Yesterday’s selloff brought a large amount of selling interest with higher volume and open interest, a bearish indicator on a large down day.

Prices resumed their long-term downtrend and are quickly approaching the psychological support of $5. A bear trap could sucker in more shorts in another move lower before moving higher. It’s too early to tell if that is on the table.

Winter wheat planting reached 20 percent complete, up nine percent from the previous week but three percentage points behind last year’s pace. Four percent of the crop had emerged, unchanged from a year ago.

French wheat prices fell to a five-year low this week due to increasing global supplies. Russian wheat export prices did increase slightly this week.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US wheat export inspections back at seasonal highs

U.S. wheat exports surged to a seasonal high last week, with strong demand from Mexico and the Philippines. Corn shipments eased but are still running well ahead of last year, while soybean volumes slipped as harvest pressure builds.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 22, 2025

U.S. corn and soybean export inspections declined last week, while wheat movements surged to seasonal highs, according to USDA data on Monday. The agency reported that corn export inspections fell 12 percent during the week ending Sept. 18 to 1.33 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were 16 percent higher than the same period last year and maintained a relatively strong shipment pace.

Mexico was the top destination for the week, while Japan and Colombia also landed in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 3.49 MMT, up 59 percent year-over-year. That was the fastest pace for the period since the 2018/19 season.

Soybean export inspections fell 41 percent last week to 484,100 metric tons (MT). Volumes were also 3 percent lower than a year ago and fell back below the five-year average. Egypt was the leading destination for U.S. soybeans during the week. Other countries in the top five included Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Bangladesh, and Mexico.

Total inspections for the season reached 1.57 MMT, up 26 percent year-over-year. Shipments have been off to a strong start relative to a year ago despite a slow pace of sales. Soybeans are entering their prime export window as the fall harvest season picks up. The slow pace of shipments out of the Pacific Northwest could challenge volumes moving through the fall.

Wheat export inspections surged by 13 percent last week to 854,500 MT. Movements were 18 percent higher than the same week last year, and were the best print for the week since the 2016/17 season.

The Philippines was the top destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Mexico and Venezuela. Mexico has been the top importer of all U.S. wheat this season. The Philippines is a far second, followed by Japan and South Korea.

Accumulated export inspections rose to 8.71 MMT, sitting 13 percent higher than a year ago. Wheat exports are running at the best pace since the 2017/18 season.

U.S. sorghum exports totaled 30,100 MT, down 15 percent from the previous week, and 62 percent lower than the same week last year. Total inspections for the marketing year reached 66,600 MT, down 56 percent from a year ago. Lack of demand from China put significant pressure on U.S. sorghum shipments over the past year.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 22, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower, but it had seen a recovery after posting fresh lows last week. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are lower.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 22, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower, but it had seen a recovery after posting fresh lows last week. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are lower.

CORN

December corn futures are down 3.25 cents at $4.20 ¾. March corn is down 3.25 cents at $4.38.

December futures failed to close the July 4 gap at $4.32 ½ last week, as well as trade above the $4.30 resistance area. Whether the USDA’s current corn production estimate is believable or not, the idea of a large crop coming to market this fall continues to weigh on prices.

The Eastern Corn Belt is expected to be wetter this week, which could stall some harvest progress. Combines should see favorable conditions west of the Mississippi River.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 320,068 MT of corn to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 25 percent of the country’s summer corn crop was planted as of last week, compared to 26 percent the same week last year.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 14.25 cents at $10.11 ¼. January soybeans are 14 cents lower at $10.30 ¾. Soybean oil is sharply lower. Soybean meal is lower.

Futures extended Friday’s sharp losses following President Trump’s phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.

Argentina eliminated its grain export tax through Oct. 31 to spur more grain sales during the period. The tariff suspension is an effort to raise more dollars for the country, which has been deemed a political move.

AgRural reported that 0.9 percent of the country’s soybean planting was complete as of last week, which aligned with last year’s pace. Beneficial rainfall is expected to aid planting progress over the next week.

Brazil’s oilseed crushing capacity is expected to expand by 5.7 percent this year to capitalize on biodiesel demand, according to Abiove, the country’s largest crushing association.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 5.25 cents at $5.17 ¼. KC wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.04 ½. Spring wheat is unchanged at $5.67 ½.

Futures pushed lower for a fourth consecutive session after failing to push above resistance levels last week. We seem to be in a wash, rinse, and repeat cycle with the wheat market. Strong U.S. and adequate global supplies continue to cap rallies in the complex.

Chicago prices may still try to test the contract low of $5.12, which currently serves as major support.

Russia has exported 2.2 MMT of wheat during the first half of September, with the country expected to ship 4.3 MMT to 4.5 MMT this month. Global wheat prices have been working on finding stability after their recent decline.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 19, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday. The U.S. dollar continued to recover. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher and holding onto yesterday’s fresh record.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 19, 2025

CORN

December corn futures traded lower for a second day on Thursday, likely due to some hedging pressure at current levels. Futures stalled below the short-term resistance area, marked by the gap at $4.32 ½.

Combines fully rolling through the fields could keep hedging pressure on the market, as prices are trading about 40 cents above their August lows.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 6.2 percent of the Argentine corn crop was planted as of this week.

Scattered showers made their way to Central Brazil over the past few days, helping with moisture conditions before corn and soybean planting gets fully underway.

SOYBEANS

Continual pressure in the product market took soybean futures lower again on Thursday. The market continues to wait for any indication from President Trump today about a potential deal with China.

China has yet to begin buying U.S. soybeans, as the country was absent from the sales sheet again this week. This year is the first time that China hasn’t been buying U.S. soybeans ahead of the new crop year since the 1990s.

Despite U.S. farmers feeling the pinch, China’s unofficial embargo on U.S. soybeans could have negative impacts on Argentina. Argentina has been prioritizing whole soybean exports to China, limiting supplies for its crush industry.

WHEAT

Wheat futures fell in sympathy with corn and soybeans on Thursday. Larger global wheat supplies remain a bearish factor for prices.

On a positive note, this week’s trade help post the first higher high in the market since June, as prices attempt to pause the current downtrend. The market has yet to put in a higher low, which would be a better indicator of a trend reversal.

The International Grains Exchange raised its global wheat stockpile estimate this week to reflect higher supplies out of Russia, Canada, and Australia.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that wheat crop development is moving along in favorable conditions.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US grain export sales post rebound last week

Corn export sales were well above the five-year average for the week ending Sept. 11. Soybean sales also surged but were well below average due to a lack of sales to China, while wheat sales recovered.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 18, 2025

The USDA released its latest export sales data Thursday morning for the week ending Sept. 11.

CORN

Net corn export sales surged last week to 1.23 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 539,900 metric tons (MT) the previous week. Mexico led the buying for the week, followed by South Korea and Japan. Volumes were well above the five-year average for the week and second to the 2020/21 marketing year.

Actual exports jumped higher last week to 1.56 MMT, primarily destined for Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Accumulated exports for the marketing year rose to 2.24 MMT, nearly double last year’s volumes during this time.

SOYBEANS

Net soybean export sales rose to 923,000 MT for 2025/26, compared to 541,100 MT the previous week. Egypt was the top destination for U.S. soybean purchases, followed by Mexico and Spain. Old crop sales remained below the five-year average despite last week’s rebound. New crop sales of 2,300 MT were sold to Japan and Vietnam.

Soybean exports rose sharply last week to 837,100 MT, driven by higher shipments to Spain and Bangladesh. Total shipments for the season rose to 1.07 MMT, up 41 percent from the previous year. Despite higher year-over-year exports, total commitments for 2025/26 are below the previous season.

Soybean meal export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year fell to 31,200 MT. New crop sales also fell to 151,300 MT. The Philippines was the top buyer for the week. Actual exports fell six percent from the previous week to 236,400 MT, but remained above the same week last year. Total exports for the season rose to 14.31 MMT, up nearly 14 percent year-over-year.

Soybean oil exports surged last week to 22,400 MT for the 2024/25 season, driven by higher sales for South Korea. Actual exports fell to 2,100 MT, destined for Mexico and Canada. Accumulated exports for the season rose to 1.07 MMT, up 328 percent from a year ago. Soybean oil exports have been declining in recent months due to higher domestic use in biofuel production.

WHEAT

Net wheat export sales rose 24 percent last week to 377,500 MT for the 2025/26 season. The Philippines was the top buyer for the week, followed by Nigeria and Mexico. Mexico also bought 10,000 MT of wheat for the new crop season.

Wheat exports more than doubled last week to 774,800 MT, driven by higher shipments to Mexico and Indonesia. Accumulated exports for the marketing year rose to 7.62 MMT, up 12 percent from a year ago. Total commitments rose to 13.1 MMT, up from 11 MMT in the previous season.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Statistics Canada raises 2025 wheat, canola production

Statistics Canada raised 2025 wheat production to 36.62 MMT and canola output to 20.03 MMT, both above last year’s levels. Higher yields offset slightly lower acreage, aided by improved late-season rainfall across key growing regions.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 18, 2025

Statistics Canada raised its 2025 wheat production estimate to 36.62 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT from the August estimate of 35.55 MMT.

The increase was due to higher production estimates for durum and spring wheat. Total production is expected to be nearly two percent higher than the previous season. The increase was the result of higher yields despite slightly lower acreage.

StatsCan raised its canola crop estimate to 20.03 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 19.94 MMT. Output was raised on better yields, which are expected to be 6.2 percent higher than the previous season. Total production is forecast to be 4.1 percent above last year.

Much of Canada’s major growing areas experienced above-normal precipitation throughout August. Dry pockets in Saskatchewan and Manitoba likely impacted wheat yields. Better rainfall in the final week of August helped boost vegetative health in those areas.

Statistics Canada said it uses yield modeling estimates with satellite imagery, measuring NDVI.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 18, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday. The U.S. dollar is higher following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut yesterday. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the effective rate to 4.00-4.25 percent. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 18, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday. The U.S. dollar is higher following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut yesterday. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the effective rate to 4.00-4.25 percent. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher.

CORN

December corn is down 0.75 cents at $4.26. March corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.44 ¼.

December futures traded 2.75 cents lower on Wednesday on lower volume. Prices found support at near-term moving averages and may be working on carving out a sideways range for the short term. $4.30-$4.33 remains a resistance area.

The USDA reported that U.S. corn export sales surged last week to 1.23 MMT, up from 540,000 MT the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by South Korea and Japan.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 110,000 MT of corn to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) released its first 2025/26 corn production forecast, projecting the crop at 138.3 MMT, down one percent from the 2024/25 season. Acreage is expected to be 3.5 percent higher, while yields are projected to be lower.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 2.50 cents at $10.41 ¼. January soybeans are down 2.25 cents at $10.60 ¾. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is lower.

November futures turned lower on Wednesday, closing 6 cents lower on the day. Prices traded just above Tuesday’s high before reversing. The overnight trade found support at the 200-day moving average.

Uncertainty regarding the EPA’s SRE reallocation proposal is adding more risk. Either we get 50 percent reallocation for the past three years, or 100 percent reallocation in 2026-2027, which would raise those total renewable volume obligations.

U.S. soybean export sales jumped higher last week to 925,000 MT, compared to 541,000 MT the previous week. Egypt was the largest buyer, followed by Mexico.

Conab forecasts its 2025/26 soybean production at 177.7 MMT, up 3.6 percent from the 2024/25 estimate of 171.5 MMT. Acreage is expected to be 3.7 percent higher, while yields are expected to be unchanged.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 1.50 cents at $5.29 ¾. KC wheat is down 0.50 cents at $5.15 ¾. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.73.

After closing above the 200-day moving average on Tuesday, Wednesday’s trade brought a fresh one-month high before turning lower and falling back into a previous trading range from last month.

There continues to be a reluctance for the market to get too exuberant following the recent short-covering rally.

U.S. wheat export sales rose slightly last week to 387,500 MT, compared to 305,000 MT. The Philippines was the primary destination, followed by Mexico.

Taiwan pledged to buy 3.6 MMT of wheat from the U.S. over the next three years. Taiwan was the fifth-largest buyer of U.S. wheat during the 2024/25 season, buying about 1 MMT. The pledge seems more like a commitment to be a steady buyer than a larger one.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar found some buyers overnight following sharp losses ahead of the expected rate cuts by the Fed today. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are steady.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar found some buyers overnight following sharp losses ahead of the expected rate cuts by the Fed today. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are steady.

CORN

December corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.30. March corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.47 ½.

December futures rallied 6.25 cents on Tuesday, surpassing Friday’s high but falling short of closing above the $4.30 mark. Prices holding onto gains overnight could still set themselves up to fill the July 4 gap around $4.32/$4.33.

Disease pressure remains a focus with the corn harvest underway in the Corn Belt. Reports of low test weights have been emerging in parts of Iowa, though other areas seem less impacted by disease.

Below normal chances of rain are expected to keep combines rolling in the Eastern Corn Belt.

Brazil’s ethanol production is expected to grow 17 percent in two years due to higher corn supplies. That will likely buffer global production increases, rather than those supplies going into the export market.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are up 1.25 cents at $10.51. January soybeans are up 1 cent at $10.70 ¼. Soybean oil is lower following yesterday’s sharp gains. Soybean meal is higher.

November futures rose 7 cents on Tuesday, posting another higher close. Prices continued to push higher and are approaching the August highs.

Yesterday, the EPA proposed a 50 percent reallocation of the recent small refinery waivers. According to a notice, the EPA “seeks to balance the goals of the RFS program in supporting the production and use of renewable fuels while taking into account economic impacts”. The news helped soybean oil rally 1.8 percent yesterday, taking soybean futures along for the ride.

Additional optimism came from planned talks between President Trump and President Xi this week. U.S. and Chinese officials reportedly secured a deal on TikTok early this week, opening the door for positive relations. President Trump reiterated that the relationship with China remains “a very strong one” despite the lack of trade with the country.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 0.25 cents $5.34 ¼. KC wheat is down 0.25 cents at $5.23 ¼. Spring wheat is unchanged at $5.76 ½.

Chicago futures posted four consecutive sessions of higher closes following a 9-cent surge on Tuesday, which put prices at a two-week high.

Statistics Canada raised its wheat crop forecast to 36.6 MMT, compared to its August estimate of 35.5 MMT. The increase was due to higher yields in Alberta and Manitoba.

Bloomberg reported that Russian officials are meeting with grain traders in an effort to boost exports. One proposal involves subsidies for transporting grain by rail to export terminals. Total exports since the season began in July are off to a slow start, which has weighed on global prices.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Winter wheat rallies amid break in the US dollar

December Chicago wheat climbed for a fourth straight session, as the market eyes seasonal strength and support from a weaker U.S. dollar. Global supplies remain heavy, but prices are testing the upper end of their recent range.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 16, 2025

Winter wheat futures traded higher for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday. December Chicago wheat traded more than a nickel higher at the start of the morning session to $5.30 a bushel.

It seems like the market has been trying to look past large global supplies. The complex has an upward seasonal bias at least through November. Chicago prices have been moving to the upper end of their consolidation range from August. Near-term technical resistance is around $5.35 a bushel.

The recent break in the U.S. dollar adds support for wheat futures, as the lower currency could help attract global buyers.

Global wheat prices have been trying to build a base after declining through the back half of the summer. High global supplies have kept a lid on price action due to strong global competition.

U.S. farmers planted 11 percent of their expected winter wheat acreage as of last week, compared to 13 percent the same week last year. The winter wheat belt received a fair amount of precipitation over the past week, where moisture could help crop establishment ahead of winter.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.