Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower following three days of gains. Stock futures are higher.
CORN
December corn is unchanged at $4.17. March corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.35.
Trading interest has dropped substantially this week ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Friday. Limited trade took December corn futures 2 ¾ cents lower on Wednesday.
U.S. ethanol production surged 2.8 percent last week to an average of 1.105 million barrels a day, a record for the week. It’s likely the USDA could lower its 2024/25 corn ethanol crush forecast tomorrow, given that the current pace is well behind in reaching the current target. Ethanol stocks rose 1.2 percent to 22.84 million barrels and remained below year-ago levels.
The USDA reported that net corn export sales last week total 540,000 MT, compared to 1.84 MMT the previous week. Volumes slipped below the five-year average for the first time since July.
Brazil’s National Supply Company raised its 2024/25 corn production estimate to 139.7 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 137 MMT.
The Rosario Grain Exchange said Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production could be a record 61 MMT due to a shift away from soybeans.
SOYBEANS
November soybeans are up 6.50 cents at $10.31 ¾. January soybeans are up 6.50 cents at $10.51 ¼. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is higher.
The lack of trading interest in the grains sent November soybeans 6 cents lower on Wednesday. Prices continued to hold above the Sept. 4 low, which is currently minor support.
Current forecasts will continue to aid crops in drying ahead of harvest. However, moisture deficits are becoming prominent throughout Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.
Soybean export sales fell 541,000 MT, compared to 795,000 MT the previous week. Volumes were well below the five-year average for the week and the lowest print for the 2025/26 season since July.
Conab raised its 2024/25 soybean production estimate to 171.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 169.7 MMT.
WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.12 ¼. KC wheat is down 3.50 cents at $5.03 ½. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.68 ½.
Chicago wheat futures posted fresh contract lows overnight after trading 5.25 cents lower on Wednesday. Prices are currently testing the ice on support levels at current lows. It’s been difficult for the market to ignore strong global supplies despite a good pace of exports this season.
Friday’s WASDE report is not expected to bring many changes for the U.S. wheat balance sheet. Noticeable changes will likely be global. The USDA has only made changes to wheat ending stocks in September only once out of the past five years.
Russian-based research firm SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production forecast a second time this week to 87.2 MMT, up from 86.1 MMT. The increase reflected strong yields in some areas. For some perspective, Russia’s 2025/26 production was initially forecast to be a four-year low. Now, output is expected to be higher than last year and is nearing previous records.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.