Tag: Wheat

Morning Grain Comments – October 6, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Monday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher. The federal government remains partially closed after the Senate failed to pass a funding bill on Friday.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

October 6, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Monday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher. The federal government remains partially closed after the Senate failed to pass a funding bill on Friday.

CORN

December corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.18 ¾. March corn is unchanged at $4.35 ¾.

Last week’s quarterly stocks report sent December futures as low as $4.10 ½ a bushel last week before rebounding and closing just 3 cents lower on the week. Prices may attempt to test last week’s lows before establishing a stronger base.

Absent of a funding bill, the government shutdown will continue to delay USDA reports at a time when exports tend to have a major focus. Last week’s export sales report is already delayed, and the USDA’s WASDE report is slated for Thursday, which could also be delayed.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 40 percent of the summer corn crop was planted in the Center-South region as of last week. That compared to 32 percent the previous week and 37 percent a year ago.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are up 2 cents at $10.20. January soybeans are up 1.75 cents at $10.38 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is higher.

Following a negative reaction to the quarterly stocks report, soybean prices rallied on hopes that the U.S. and China will reach a trade agreement and drive soybean purchases that have been absent this season. Last week’s rally was driven by speculative short-covering rather than new buying interest.

Aside from exports, uncertainty remains over biofuel policy. The EPA has been holding public hearings regarding the small refinery exemptions, which end on Oct. 31. The EPA is supposed to release its final renewable volume obligations for 2026-2027 by Nov. 1.

A stretch of rain made its way across the midsection of the U.S. overnight and this morning, aiding moisture conditions for areas that were very dry. Moisture is reportedly becoming an issue for harvesting soybeans, raising expectations that the USDA will lower yields on Thursday.

AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean planting reached 9 percent complete, compared to 3 percent last week and 4 percent the same period last year. The firm said that it is the second-fastest pace on record for the week.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 2 cents at $5.17 ¼. KC wheat is up 2 cents at $4.99. Spring wheat is up 1.50 cents at $5.61 ¼.

Last Wednesday’s bounce from life of contract lows triggered speculative short-covering on Thursday and Friday, though Chicago futures still finished 4.50 cents lower on the week. KC wheat struggled more and accelerated to new contract lows below $5 a bushel, a new five-year low.

Russia’s grain harvest has been moving along. Government officials said the 2025 grain harvest is expected to hit 135 MMT, up 10 percent year-over-year, with a strong wheat production forecast.

Egypt’s wheat imports are tracking 34 percent lower than last year for the first nine months of 2025. Bloomberg reported that lower shipments have been due to better domestic procurement and shifts in the country’s import structure. Volumes remain higher than the five-year average.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn export inspections hit marketing-year high, wheat declines

U.S. corn movements continued to run at seasonal highs last week, while wheat exports fell back toward season averages. Soybean inspections were higher on the week but were well below seasonal norms.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

October 6, 2025

U.S. corn exports continued to move along at a rapid pace last week while wheat shipments fell from seasonal highs, according to the USDA’s grain export inspections report. The USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service is still releasing weekly reports amid the partial government shutdown.

U.S. corn movements totaled 1.60 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Oct. 2. Volumes were up 4 percent from the previous week and 69 percent higher than the same week last year. Shipments hit a new marketing-year high last week amid strong export demand. Mexico was the top destination for the week, followed by Japan and Spain.

Accumulated export inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year rose to 6.71 MMT, up 56 percent year-over-year. Inspections are running at the fastest pace since 2016, according to historical data.

Soybean export inspections totaled 768,100 metric tons (MT), up 26 percent from the previous week but 53 percent lower than the same week last year. Volumes from the previous week were substantially raised, putting shipments slightly better than the previous report. Mexico was the leading destination for the week, followed by Egypt.

Total shipments for the season rose to 3.03 MMT, which were 15 percent lower than a year ago. Last week, shipments were 16 percent ahead of last year. As expected, inspections fell below year-ago levels after tracking above the previous season. Current soybean shipments are tracking in line with historical averages due to a push to countries outside of China. The lack of shipments to China remains a headwind for soybean exports this season.

Wheat export movements totaled 505,100 MT last week, down 42 percent from the previous week. Volumes remained 39 percent above the same week last year amid higher demand for U.S. wheat. Wheat volumes for the previous week were revised substantially higher, pushing shipments well above seasonal averages. South Korea was the top destination for the week, while Japan, Malaysia, and Nigeria also made it in the top five.

Accumulated wheat inspections rose to 10.18 MMT, up 18 percent year-over-year. Movements are tracking at the fastest pace since the 2017/18 season as lower prices have made U.S. wheat more competitive in the global marketplace.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – October 3, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The federal government remains in a partial shutdown for a third day. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher following recent losses. Stock futures are steady to higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

October 3, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The federal government remains in a partial shutdown for a third day. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher following recent losses. Stock futures are steady to higher.

CORN

December corn is down 0.75 cents at $4.21. March corn is down 1 cent at $4.37.

Buying continued in corn futures on Thursday following Wednesday’s strong rally off intraday lows. December prices traded 5.25 cents higher, fully reversing this week’s selloff. Yesterday’s gains brought some new buyers with higher open interest on the day.

Prices could still struggle at $4.30, which has proved to be a difficult level, as the area served as major support since last year.

California approved sales of E15 this week, which is expected to help increase ethanol demand as drivers seek lower-priced fuel options.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the Argentine corn planting reached 19.8 percent complete, which was seven percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. Moisture conditions have been good, as the country is expected to produce a record crop.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 0.25 cents at $10.23 ½. January soybeans are unchanged at $10.41 ¾. Soybean oil is moderately lower. Soybean meal is higher.

Futures received follow-through buying on Thursday following the Trump-driven rally on optimism of the president discussing soybeans with China. The recent rally has likely been driven by speculative short-covering, as funds have been flip flopping between net long and net short.

The lack of Chinese buying remains a concern. Even if China were to begin purchasing U.S. soybeans, we already lost out on the prime export window when the U.S. typically ships bushels to the country.

The partial government shutdown impacting USDA reporting has the market on edge, especially during recent headline volatility. When export reports start back up, volatility may pick up as the market digests numbers.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 2.50 cents at $5.17 ¼. KC wheat is up 2 cents at $5.01. Spring wheat is up 0.50 cents at $5.61.

Futures traded higher for a third session, continuing their recovery from Wednesday’s contract lows. Prices still haven’t reversed weekly losses, as supplies remain adequate for demand.

Managed money holds a fairly large net short position, and prices have a little ways to go before funds may have to begin covering shorts.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global wheat stockpiles for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 320.3 MMT, up 2.4 MMT from the opening levels due to large harvests from Canada and Russia.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the average wheat yield in the country is nearing historic highs following abundant soil moisture during the growing season. Ninety-seven percent of the crop is in normal to excellent condition. The country is expected to harvest 22 MMT of wheat this season.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – October 2, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are steady to higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

October 2, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are steady to higher.

CORN

December corn is unchanged at $4.16 ½. March corn is up 0.25 cents at $4.33.

Yesterday’s overnight and early morning trade brought sharply lower corn prices. However, a late session rally brought December futures well above their intraday lows and closed about unchanged.

The USDA’s weekly export sales report has been delayed due to the government shutdown. Corn crush data that was to be released yesterday was also delayed indefinitely.

Moisture degradation continued in the Eastern Corn Belt over the past week. Much of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan are experiencing extreme moisture deficits amid a lack of rainfall. There is one system that could bring about an inch of rain in dry areas in Indiana and Ohio.

A couple of storm systems are expected to move across the Corn Belt this week, though the corn harvest may continue to progress reasonable pace, adding to harvest pressure.

StoneX lowered its U.S. corn yield estimate to 185.9 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from the previous estimate.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 1.25 cents at $10.11 ¾. January soybeans are down 1.50 cents at $10.29 ½. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower.

Futures sold off hard early during Wednesday’s session, followed by a late-session rally. Headline risk is very much alive in the soybean market.

Futures surged further in the afternoon after President Trump posted on social media that he would meet with Chinese President Xi in four weeks. Trump also mentioned soybeans as a topic of discussion in the same post.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the U.S. will announce “substantial” aid for farmers on Tuesday, likely a funding package to offset revenue losses from tariffs.

StoneX raised its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.9 bushels an acre, compared to 53.2 bushels last month.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 2.75 cents at $5.12. KC wheat is up 2 cents at $4.97 ½. Spring wheat is up 1.75 cents at $5.58 ¾.

Winter wheat futures posted fresh life of contract lows on Wednesday. However, a midday rally lifted Chicago futures to above unchanged and closed 1.25 cents higher at $5.09 ¼.

Wheat futures have consistently posted lower highs and lower lows over the past few months, with yesterday’s washout continuing the bearish sentiment.

Global wheat prices also took another leg lower this week, with Black Sea wheat and French milling wheat the weakest among global competitors. Prices continue to affirm the idea that global supplies are large enough to meet current demand.

U.S. wheat exports and sales have been chugging along, though the partial government shutdown will make us wait to see the latest data.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – October 1, 2025

Grains and oilseeds were lower overnight following the USDA’s Quarterly Grains Stocks report. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are working lower. The U.S. government shut down on Wednesday following a lack of consensus between Republicans and Democrats regarding the U.S. budget. Federal agencies could be idled if the shutdown…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

October 1, 2025

Grains and oilseeds were lower overnight following the USDA’s Quarterly Grains Stocks report. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are working lower.

The U.S. government shut down on Wednesday following a lack of consensus between Republicans and Democrats regarding the U.S. budget. Federal agencies could be idled if the shutdown persists. That could mean delayed reports, including next week’s WASDE.

CORN

December corn is down 2.75 cents at $4.12 ¾. March corn is down 3 cents at $4.29.

Futures broke well below their trading range yesterday, with the December contract declining by 6 cents to $4.15 ½ before working lower again overnight.

The Sept. 1 corn ending stocks number came in as a swing and a miss. While stocks were 13 percent lower than a year ago at 1.53 billion bushels, they came in above market expectations – about 200 million bushels higher. This implies the USDA has been understating the 2024/25 carryout estimate, which is currently 1.325 billion bushels.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the 2025/26 corn production will hit a record 58 MMT, driven by a shift in soybean acres to corn.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are 5.50 cents lower at $9.96 ¼. January soybeans are down 5.50 cents at $10.14 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower.

November soybeans broke below the key $10 level overnight after holding above it yesterday. Prices are trading about a dime above a trendline support area that has contained downward moves since this spring.

Sept. 1 soybean stockpiles totaled 316 million bushels, 8 percent lower than a year ago. Stocks were also slightly lower than market expectations. Like corn, producer-owned bushels declined from a year ago after two consecutive years of increases.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 5 cents at 5.03. KC wheat is down 6.50 cents at $4.91 ¼. Spring wheat is down 6.50 cents at $5.60 ¾.

KC wheat continued to lead the complex lower and broke below the $5 level yesterday and into the overnight session. Winter wheat futures continued to post fresh contract lows amid the weight of an adequately supplied market domestically and globally.

Yesterday’s Small Grains Summary report found additional winter and spring wheat bushels in the USDA’s “final” production estimate for the season. Production for 2025/26 totaled 1.985 billion bushels, up from 1.927 billion in August.

Sept. 1 wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Total stocks were slightly higher than market expectations and are the highest since the 2020/21 season.

Producer-owned bushels have been increasing over the past four years.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA boosts wheat production on higher acreage

USDA’s Small Grains Summary raised 2025/26 all wheat production to nearly 2 billion bushels, the largest since 2016/17. Higher harvested acreage, particularly for winter wheat in the Southern Plains, drove the increase.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 30, 2025

Aside from releasing the Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday, the USDA also put out its annual Small Grains Summary report, which covers wheat, oats, barley, and rye.

The agency reported that 2025/26 all wheat production totaled 1.985 billion bushels, up from the August estimate of 1.927 billion. Additionally, all wheat production is now estimated to be less than a percent higher than a year ago, but the largest output since the 2016/17 season.

Total production increased from August due to an increase in harvested acreage of winter wheat, particularly in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado. Winter wheat production was raised to 1.4 billion bushels. Spring wheat production was raised to 497,000 bushels.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
September corn, soybean stocks down from last year

USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed Sept. 1 corn and soybean supplies both fell year-over-year. Wheat stocks, however, rose to their highest level since the 2020/21 season, coming in above market expectations.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 30, 2025

The USDA released its Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Tuesday. The report contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, and mustard seed by State and total with on-farm and off-farm positions.

CORN

U.S. corn stockpiles on Sept. 1 totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 13 percent year-over-year. Sept. 1 stocks fell for the first time since the 2020/21 marketing year. That number will be reflected as the carry-in for the 2025/26 marketing year in the October WASDE report next week.

The USDA revised its corn production estimate up by 25 million bushels from the previous estimate, based on usage data.

On-farm bushels totaled 643 million, 18 percent lower than a year ago. Off-farm bushels declined by 10 percent to 888 million bushels. Additionally, on-farm stocks represented 42 percent of total volumes, which was the lowest share since the 2021/22 season.

SOYBEANS

Sept. 1 soybean stockpiles totaled 316 million bushels, 8 percent lower than a year ago, according to the USDA. The stocks number came in slightly lower than market expectations, which had expected a decline. Soybean stocks in all positions had been increasing since the large drop following the COVID-19 pandemic. Today’s report marked the first decline for the carryout estimate since the 2020/21 season.

On-farm supplies fell 18 percent from a year ago to 91.5 million bushels. Off-farm stocks totaled 225 million bushels, down 3 percent from a year earlier. The share of producer-owned bushels fell to 29 percent, down from 33 percent a year ago.

Like corn, the USDA will use today’s soybean stocks number to adjust the 2025/26 carry-in estimate in next week’s WASDE report.

WHEAT

Sept. 1 wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year earlier, the largest since the 2020/21 season. Volumes came in above market expectations, which had expected an increase.

Wheat held off farms totaled 1.43 billion bushels, up seven percent from last year. On-farm storage rose four percent from a year ago to 692 million bushels and represented 33 percent of total stocks. On-farm stocks have been increasing over the past four years and are sitting at the highest since the 2020/21 season. It will be interesting to see if higher export demand this season could help stabilize increases in the December report.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 30, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday ahead of the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report that will be released later this morning. The U.S. dollar is lower again. Crude oil is sharply lower for a second day. Stock futures are slightly lower.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 30, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday ahead of the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report that will be released later this morning. The U.S. dollar is lower again. Crude oil is sharply lower for a second day. Stock futures are slightly lower.

CORN

December corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.19 ¼. March corn is 2.25 cents lower at $4.36 ¼.

Futures had a steady finish on Monday, with the December contract closing just 0.50 cent lower at $4.21 ¼ after holding above the 35-day moving average. Prices have traded in a wide range since their August rally.

Markets continued to wait for the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which will be released at 11 am CT today. Pre-report expectations predict a year-over-year decline in corn stocks. We will also be looking at where those stocks are and whether a large percentage is held by producers.

Lower producer-owned bushels compared to end-user-owned bushels is generally positive. The U.S. corn harvest is moving along at the slowest pace since 2020, which makes sense given the USDA’s large acreage estimate.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 3.50 cents at $10.07. November soybeans are down 4.25 cents at $10.25 ½. Soybean oil and soybean meal are lower.

Futures finished 3.25 cents lower on Monday after falling near the bottom of their current trading range. Prices continued to test the bottom of the range, which is considered nearby support. A break below the November $10.05 likely means a test of psychological support around $10.

The U.S. soybean harvest reached 19 percent complete last week, compared to 24 percent a year ago. Progress was also below the five-year average.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts China’s soybean imports at 106 MMT, compared to the USDA’s official forecast of 112 MMT. China’s rapeseed import forecast was cut to 3.1 MMT, which was also below the USDA estimate of 4.1 MMT due to anti-dumping duties on Canadian shipments.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 2 cents at $5.17 ½. KC wheat is down 1.50 cents at $5.06 ¾. Spring wheat is down 2.25 cents at $5.67.

Chicago futures traded steady on Monday, finishing just 0.25 cents lower on the day at $5.19 ½. The market seems to be waiting for today’s report to get out of the way before choosing its next direction.

U.S. winter wheat planting reached 34 percent, compared to 37 percent the same week last year. The U.S. Plains received beneficial moisture over the past week to help with crop establishment ahead of the dormancy season. Thirteen percent of the crop has emerged, which aligns with last season.

Russia’s wheat exports may hit 5.1 MMT in October, which would be a large rebound from September. Shipments may be above the five-year average since the new season began on July 1.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 29, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The USDA will release its Quarterly Grains Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports tomorrow. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are working higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 29, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The USDA will release its Quarterly Grains Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports tomorrow. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are working higher.

CORN

December corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.19 ¾. March corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.36 ½.

Limited precipitation over the past few days likely propelled the corn harvest pace. Limited rain expected for a large section of the U.S. over the next few days will likely keep harvest moving along quickly and contribute to harvest pressure.

Grain markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which is expected to show lower corn supplies compared to last year. If the report comes in bullish, prices could still be limited by farmers selling.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 32 percent of the country’s summer corn planting was complete as of last week. Progress compared to 30 percent complete the same week last year.

India is considering buying U.S. corn to help produce ethanol in the country as part of an effort to reach a trade agreement.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are 5 cents lower at $10.08 ¾. January soybeans are down 4.75 cents at $10.28 ¼. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is higher, as spreading continues in the product markets.

Futures consolidated above $10 a bushel last week following a sharp selloff that took prices to the lowest in over a month. Losses in the soybean meal market led the complex lower, which fell near multi-year lows.

AgRural reported that 3.2 percent of Brazil’s soybean crop was planted as of last week, up from 2 percent the same week last year. Rainfall has been improving in the country and supporting sowing.

Progress is running well ahead of average in Mato Grosso, as moisture deficits improve. Planting is on schedule so long as rains continue enough for farmers to feel confident about crop establishment.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 1 cent at $5.18 ¾. KC wheat is down 0.75 cents at $5.04 ¾. Spring wheat is down 0.75 cents at $5.67.

Futures traded slightly lower last week after Tuesday’s reversal from contract lows was followed by limited buying. Still, last week’s lows in the Chicago market could help find a low. However, large U.S. supplies could keep a lid on prices.

Limited rainfall is expected to reach winter wheat areas over the next few days, though the next 10 days will likely be drier than normal.

Global wheat prices have been stabilizing, though European prices pushed lower last week due to strong global competition.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA to report September Grain Stocks Tuesday

Traders are bracing for Tuesday’s USDA reports, with tightening corn stocks and steady soybean supplies in focus. Wheat inventories are expected to rise, though production estimates may be trimmed.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 26, 2025

The USDA will release its Quarterly Grains Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports on Tuesday, with both likely to provide some fireworks for the market. The September stocks report is highly anticipated since it helps put a bow on the previous marketing year, in this case, the 2024/25 season.

Additionally, the Small Grains Summary offers another look at wheat production. The USDA will generally use the estimates for the carry-in numbers for the current season, barring additional changes.

Tightening U.S. corn stocks on the docket

A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates ahead of the report expects the Sept. 1 corn stocks number at 1.336 billion bushels, down 428 million from the previous year. If realized, that would be the smallest number since the 2020/21 marketing year.

That large a drawdown may be justified given the strong demand for U.S. corn, but it could set the market up for a bearish surprise come Tuesday.

Soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 are expected to be 17 million bushels lower than a year ago at 325 million. The reduction is much less aggressive compared to corn. If realized, stocks would be lower year-over-year but higher compared to two years ago.

Rising wheat stocks

The September stocks report will represent the first look at how the 2025/26 marketing year for wheat is moving along. The average analyst guess predicts all wheat stocks at 2.054 billion bushels, up 62 million from September 2024.

That would be the largest volume for the quarter since the 2020/21 season. U.S. stockpiles have been trending higher for the past two years, largely due to increasing producer-owned bushels.

Wheat production update

The USDA’s Small Grains report is expected to show lower 2025/26 wheat production. The larger focus will be on the spring wheat production, as farmers wrap up the harvest season. The spring wheat production forecast is expected to fall by 2.6 million bushels from August to 482 million.

There has been a large discrepancy between the USDA’s spring wheat crop forecast and weekly conditions ratings. Spring wheat conditions have been below the five-year average for the entire growing season, while actual production estimates have been slightly lower year-over-year.

Total wheat production is expected to be 6 million bushels lower than a month ago at 1.921 billion bushels.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Large supplies weigh on winter wheat futures

Winter wheat futures remain under pressure as global supplies weigh on prices despite rallying from contract lows. Commercial traders holding onto a relatively large long position have kept pressure on the market.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 26, 2025

Winter wheat futures faced continual pressure this week following their bounce higher from recent contract lows. December Chicago futures are trading about 13 cents above Tuesday’s low, which led the complex off of those lows.

Technical resistance remains around the August and September highs of $5.35. Closer resistance has been the 35-day moving average, which has contained price gains since July. A strong move above those levels could help turn sentiment around.

Large U.S. and global supplies and weaker global demand will likely limit upside moves. Russia’s crop is much larger than initially expected, while growing supplies in the U.S., Canada, and Australia have also added pressure.

U.S. export demand has been a bright spot due to larger supplies and lower prices. Exports are forecast at a five-year high, with commitments running at the fastest pace since the 2016/17 season.

Russian wheat exports have been sluggish since the start of the season, so it’s positive to see U.S. shipments doing well, likely thanks to the recent break in the U.S. dollar.

Weekly Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC shows money managers have been reducing their net short position since late August. However, commercial traders holding onto a relatively large long position have kept pressure on the market.

Funds, as trend followers, have continued to lean short against commercial buying. Both commercials and funds have room to extend length and drive the market lower if warranted.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 26, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Friday following a steady overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower and paused its recent gains. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are working higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 26, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Friday following a steady overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower and paused its recent gains. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are working higher.

CORN

December corn is down 1 cent at $4.24 ¾. March corn is down 0.75 cents at $4.41 ½.

December futures traded just 1.50 cents higher on Thursday to $5.25 ¾. Prices struggled to hold gains around the $4.30 resistance area.

The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Tuesday. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the Sept. 1 corn stocks at 1.336 billion bushels, down 428 million from a year ago. We will have a full breakdown of pre-report numbers available ahead of that release.

Weather forecasts for this week are very supportive of harvest, with almost no rain expected for a large section of the Corn Belt over the next few days. Drier weather is expected to continue into next week.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 0.25 cents at $10.12. January soybeans are down 0.25 cents at $10.31 ¼. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is higher as spreading resumed in the product markets.

Soybeans continued to consolidate this week, with November prices trading 3.25 cents higher to $10.12 ¼ on Thursday after struggling to hold onto early-session gains. The wave of soybean and soybean meal sales out of Argentina this week is negative for the market, given that China was able to scoop up supplies for later needs and once again avoid U.S. purchases.

A potential positive for the soybean market is that Argentine crushers are facing shortages due to whole soybean exports. Global crush rates have been running at a record, so the recent bout of sales could support meal prices down the road.

India reportedly purchased 300,000 MT of soybean oil from Argentina following the recent grain export tax reduction this week. India had been a purchaser of U.S. soybean oil when prices were lower.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 4.25 cents at $5.22 ¾. KC wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.09 ½. Spring wheat is 3 cents lower at $5.70.

The wheat complex performed the best out of the grains yesterday, with Chicago futures trading 7.5 cents higher to $5.27. Prices are back to trading mid-range following last week’s contract lows. Futures could find some resistance about a dime above current levels.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon lowered its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 43.4 MMT, down 0.3 MMT from the previous estimate. The reduction was due to sluggish demand and weak exports. The firm noted that shipments are off to the lowest pace since the 2022/23 season.

The European Commission raised its 2025/26 soft-wheat export forecast to 132.6 MMT from the previous estimate of 128.1 MMT.

—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.