The USDA released its September WASDE report on Friday, offering some bearish surprises. However, post-report trade may be looking past higher supplies. 

CORN

The USDA provided the expected cut in corn yields, lowering the average yield forecast to 186.7 bushels per acre (bpa). However, harvested acreage was raised to 90 million acres, up 1.3 million from the August forecast due to FSA certified acreage data. Total production was increased to a new record of 16.81 billion bushels.

Corn exports for the 2025/26 season were raised by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion to account for higher production and the current pace of commitments for the season. Exports for 2024/25 were raised by 10 million bushels to 2.83 billion. 

The 2025/26 carryout estimate was lowered to 2.11 billion bushels, down 7 million from the previous estimate. The stocks-to-use ratio tightened slightly from August to 13.1 percent.

Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 281.4 million metric tons (MMT), 1.1 MMT from the previous estimate, due to lower supplies in China. 

December corn prices traded a nickel higher and tested key resistance areas ahead of the report. Prices gave back those gains after the USDA came in with higher-than-expected production and ending stocks numbers. 

Futures recovered from their post-report losses a traded shy of previous resistance levels. 

SOYBEANS

The USDA raised the harvested soybean acreage forecast to 80.3 million acres, up 200,000 from the previous estimate. The national average yield was lowered by just a tenth of a bushel to 53.5 bpa. 

Total production was raised slightly to 4.3 billion bushels, compared to an expected decrease. 

Soybean exports for the 2025/26 season were lowered to 1.685 billion bushels, down from 1.705 billion in August, due to increased export competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. However, soybean crush was raised by 15 million bushels due to stronger soybean meal exports. 

The 2025/26 soybean ending stocks forecast was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million. That brought the stocks-to-use ratio up to 6.9 percent, which was still the lowest since the 202/23 season. 

Global soybean ending stocks were lowered to 124 MMT, down 900,000 metric tons from August, primarily due to lower stocks from Argentina, Canada, and Bolivia. 

November soybeans erased all of their pre-report gains following the WASDE’s release. However, prices rallied from their intraday lows and traded 15 cents higher during the afternoon. 

WHEAT

The USDA left the 2025/26 wheat production forecast unchanged from August at 1.927 billion bushels. 

Wheat exports for the 2025/26 season were raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million. Higher exports lowered the ending stocks estimate below market expectations to 844 million bushels. 

The stocks-to-use ratio tightened slightly to 41.1 percent. 

Global wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 season were raised to 264.1 million metric tons, up 4 MMT from the previous report. The carryout is forecast to increase compared to the previous year after an initial forecast of a reduction. 

The higher global production and ending stocks estimates weighed on winter wheat futures immediately following the report. However, a strong rebound in corn and soybean prices lifted the wheat complex back to intraday highs. 

CROP TABLES

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