Grains and oilseeds were lower overnight following the USDA’s Quarterly Grains Stocks report. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are working lower.
The U.S. government shut down on Wednesday following a lack of consensus between Republicans and Democrats regarding the U.S. budget. Federal agencies could be idled if the shutdown persists. That could mean delayed reports, including next week’s WASDE.
CORN
December corn is down 2.75 cents at $4.12 ¾. March corn is down 3 cents at $4.29.
Futures broke well below their trading range yesterday, with the December contract declining by 6 cents to $4.15 ½ before working lower again overnight.
The Sept. 1 corn ending stocks number came in as a swing and a miss. While stocks were 13 percent lower than a year ago at 1.53 billion bushels, they came in above market expectations – about 200 million bushels higher. This implies the USDA has been understating the 2024/25 carryout estimate, which is currently 1.325 billion bushels.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that the 2025/26 corn production will hit a record 58 MMT, driven by a shift in soybean acres to corn.
SOYBEANS
November soybeans are 5.50 cents lower at $9.96 ¼. January soybeans are down 5.50 cents at $10.14 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower.
November soybeans broke below the key $10 level overnight after holding above it yesterday. Prices are trading about a dime above a trendline support area that has contained downward moves since this spring.
Sept. 1 soybean stockpiles totaled 316 million bushels, 8 percent lower than a year ago. Stocks were also slightly lower than market expectations. Like corn, producer-owned bushels declined from a year ago after two consecutive years of increases.
WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is down 5 cents at 5.03. KC wheat is down 6.50 cents at $4.91 ¼. Spring wheat is down 6.50 cents at $5.60 ¾.
KC wheat continued to lead the complex lower and broke below the $5 level yesterday and into the overnight session. Winter wheat futures continued to post fresh contract lows amid the weight of an adequately supplied market domestically and globally.
Yesterday’s Small Grains Summary report found additional winter and spring wheat bushels in the USDA’s “final” production estimate for the season. Production for 2025/26 totaled 1.985 billion bushels, up from 1.927 billion in August.
Sept. 1 wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Total stocks were slightly higher than market expectations and are the highest since the 2020/21 season.
Producer-owned bushels have been increasing over the past four years.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.