Tag: Wheat

Morning Grain Comments – November 19, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher, and maintaining the current uptrend. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are mixed but remain near one-month lows. CORN March corn is down 2 cents at $4.47 ½. New crop December corn is down 1.25 cents at…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 19, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher, and maintaining the current uptrend. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are mixed but remain near one-month lows.

CORN
March corn is down 2 cents at $4.47 ½. New crop December corn is down 1.25 cents at $4.68.

Futures were steady on Tuesday, with the March contract rising just 1.50 cents to close at $4.49 ½. Futures appear to be stuck in the middle of a trading range after failing to hold last week’s upside breakout following the WASDE report.

Prices are holding above the 200-day moving average early this morning, which could provide near-term support.

Fresh market news has been limited this week following Friday’s WASDE report. What is known is that U.S. corn remains the cheapest out of other major exporters despite record shipments. That should continue to support the market.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are down 9.25 cents at $11.44 ¼. New crop November soybeans are down 7.25 cents at $11.19 ¾. Soybean oil and soybean meal are lower.

Futures posted what could be a short-term top on Tuesday, with the January futures trading just 3.75 cents lower. Prices are still trading near their 17-month highs despite softening overnight.

The broader soybean complex has been a willing participant of the recent rally, with soybean oil futures climbing to the highest in over two months. Soybean meal is trading at the highest in about nine months.

Bloomberg reported overnight that China booked at least 10 more cargoes of U.S. soybeans, which could lift the total to more than 2 MMT. As of Monday, purchases were confirmed to total just over 1 MMT.

The USDA did confirm another 330,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, bringing the confirmed total to 1.35 MMT.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 1.75 cents at $5.60 ¾. KC wheat is down 0.25 cents at $5.42 ¾. Spring wheat is down 1.25 cents at $5.68 ¾.

Chicago wheat futures have so far held onto their gains since breaking above the $5.53 resistance area on Monday. The next resistance level is the Nov. 5 high of $5.68.

Recent gains can likely be attributed to speculators taking profits or flattening their short positions on the December contract ahead of first notice data near the end of the month.

The CFTC will resume publishing its Commitment of Traders report today, though we won’t be caught up until late January. However, if speculators still hold a relatively large short position, a move above the November highs could help trigger additional speculative short-covering.

Widespread rainfall is expected to reach the Southern Plains and mid-South this week, aiding moisture conditions in SRW and HRW wheat areas.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn export inspections at new marketing-year high

U.S. corn export inspections continued to surge last week, while soybean movements lagged previous years, according to the USDA’s export inspections report on Monday. U.S. corn shipments totaled 2.05 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Nov. 13. Volumes were 38 percent higher than the same week last year and a marketing-year high. Inspections…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 18, 2025

U.S. corn export inspections continued to surge last week, while soybean movements lagged previous years, according to the USDA’s export inspections report on Monday. U.S. corn shipments totaled 2.05 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Nov. 13. Volumes were 38 percent higher than the same week last year and a marketing-year high. Inspections were also 135 percent higher than the same week last year.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week, followed by Japan and South Korea. Spain and Colombia also landed in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the season rose to 15.84 MMT, up 73 percent from the previous season. Corn exports continued to run at a rapid pace this year, led by demand from Mexico.

Last week, the USDA raised its 2025/26 corn export forecast to a record 3.075 billion bushels. Current exports account for about 20.3 percent of the USDA’s target. That compares to last year’s pace of just 15.5 percent.

Soybean export inspections rose 4.6 percent last week to 1.18 MMT. Volumes remained 48 percent below the same week last year, as no shipments were reported for China. China has been scooping up some cargoes of U.S. soybeans for delivery in December and January, according to USDA data and media reports.

Italy was the top destination for U.S. soybeans last week, followed by Mexico and Egypt. Year-to-date inspections rose to 10.11 MMT, still sitting 42.5 percent below last year. Inspections continued to run at the slowest in more than a decade.

Wheat export inspections were lackluster last week, falling 15 percent to 246,500 metric tons (MT), though volumes were still 25 percent above the same week last year. Shipments had been above the five-year average for much of the marketing year.

Japan led the shipments for the week. Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, and the Philippines rounded out the top five destinations. Accumulated shipments for the season rose to 12.36 MMT, running 19.3 percent ahead of last year. Total inspections continued to run at the fastest pace since the 2016/17 marketing year.

Sorghum export inspections more than doubled last week to 83,300 MT. Shipments were even 33 percent above last year but were still well below the five-year average. The inspected grain was bound for Spain, Japan, and Mexico. Year-to-date shipments rose to 345,800 MT, tracking 55 percent below last season.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 18, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar index is lower but remains in an uptrend. Crude oil is moderately lower. Stock futures are sharply lower and are trading at a one-month low. CORN December corn is up 2 cents at $4.36 ¾. March corn is up…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 18, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar index is lower but remains in an uptrend. Crude oil is moderately lower. Stock futures are sharply lower and are trading at a one-month low.

CORN
December corn is up 2 cents at $4.36 ¾. March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.49 ¾.

Futures tested support areas early on Monday before rallying off their intraday lows

The USDA released its first Crop Progress report for the first time since the government shutdown on Monday. U.S. corn harvest is reportedly at 91 percent complete as of last Sunday, tracking seven percentage points behind last year three points behind the five-year average.

U.S. corn export inspections surged to a new marketing-year high of 2.05 MMT. Accumulated inspections are running at a record pace this season. Additionally, current exports account for about 20.3 percent of the USDA’s target, compared to just 15.5 percent the same period last year.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are up 0.25 cents at $11.57 ½. New crop November soybeans are down 3.25 cents at $11.25 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower.

Soybeans were the clear leader of the grains on Monday. January futures rallied 40 cents higher than their overnight lows to close 32.75 cents higher at fresh 17-month highs yesterday.

NOPA reported that U.S. oilseed processors crushed a record 227.6 million bushels of soybeans in October, up 14 percent year-over-year. Processors should also have plenty of access to recently harvested beans as recent rallies spurred farmers selling. Soybean meal inventories remain tight across many areas, keeping basis levels high.

Reuters reported that China’s state-owned COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for December and January delivery. That totals up to at least 840,000 MT of soybeans, compared to the current 232,000 MT that have been confirmed by the USDA.

Most of those purchases were confirmed again this morning, with the USDA reporting flash sales of 792,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for the 2025/26 marketing year.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 1 cent at $5.59 ½. KC wheat is up 1.25 cents at $5.46. Spring wheat is up 3.75 cents at $5.85.

Chicago futures rallied 17 cents higher on Monday to close at $5.58 ½. Prices received a strong close above the $5.53 resistance area, and held above the level overnight.

The technical outlook on wheat has been improving, though it’s hard to ignore the large global supplies being reported by agencies.

U.S. winter wheat areas are expected to receive beneficial rainfall in the Southern Plains and the mid-South over the next week. The USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed that 45 percent of the winter wheat crop was in good-to-excellent condition, compared to 49 percent last year. Winter wheat emergence is slightly behind the five-year average.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar index is higher. Crude oil is moderately higher. Stock futures are lower after failing to hold onto early overnight gains. CORN December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.31. March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.44 ¾. Futures fell sharply…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar index is higher. Crude oil is moderately higher. Stock futures are lower after failing to hold onto early overnight gains.

CORN
December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.31. March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.44 ¾.

Futures fell sharply on Friday, as the USDA’s WASDE report showed 2025/26 corn ending stocks were about as expected. However, the market did not get the yield cut that it was expecting, which was likely the primary driver of the selloff.

Record yields were still seen for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. The USDA did make a note that not all of the data sources it used were accessible due to the shutdown.

Corn prices moved back into their consolidation range after Thursday’s false upside breakout. The market may be looking for additional bullish indicators to get a notable move above key technical areas.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are 13.25 cents higher at $11.37 ¾. New crop November soybeans are up 3.75 cents at $11.18 ¾. Soybean oil and soybean meal are higher.

Soybean futures have been the most resilient out of the grains and oilseeds. Like corn, futures sold off on Friday following neutral to even friendly WASDE numbers. Ending stocks and the national soybean yield came in below the average trade guesses.

Prices had slipped back into their consolidation range from early November. However, market bulls were back in control overnight.

The USDA’s massive flash sales release on Friday showed that China had been buying U.S. soybeans during the shutdown, though not close to what the White House said China promised to buy.

Despite optimism over China buying, the USDA still lowered the soybean export forecast due to higher prices sidelining other importers.

Soybean planting is nearly completed in Brazil’s major soybean-growing state of Mato Grosso. Overall, the weather has been mostly favorable for crop establishment in Brazil, though precipitation has been below normal so far this season.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 5.75 cents at $5.47 ¼. KC wheat is up 3.75 cents at $5.34 ¾. Spring wheat is up 5.25 cents at $5.81 ½.

Chicago futures sold off heavily on Friday, closing 10.75 cents lower on the day. The USDA’s WASDE confirmed the bearish sentiment in the global marketplace by raising world ending stocks by more than 7 MMT.

The market needs to move past the bearish sentiment to climb above the $5.53 resistance level, which is about at the 100-day moving average. However, Friday’s low may have helped solidify the bottom end of a trading range.

Argentina is expecting a record harvest, with exports expected to be the best out of the past four decades. The Rosario Grain Exchange and Buenos Aires Grain Exchange both raised their production estimates to reflect strong yield outlooks.

Editor’s note: This article was updated to reflect that China has not bought the 12 MMT of soybeans the White House said China promised to buy.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA releases backlogged flash sales of 6.6 MMT

The USDA released a swath of daily flash sales of grains that were delayed due to the government shutdown. In total, 6.6 MMT of flash sales were made during the period. A breakdown of those sales include: 4.9 MMT of corn sold to South Korea, Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan 1.3 MMT of soybean sold…
Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 14, 2025

The USDA released a swath of daily flash sales of grains that were delayed due to the government shutdown. In total, 6.6 MMT of flash sales were made during the period. A breakdown of those sales include:

4.9 MMT of corn sold to South Korea, Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan

1.3 MMT of soybean sold to Egypt, unknown, and China

110,000 MT of wheat sold to Bangladesh

237,500 MT of soybean meal sold to the Philippines

Known soybean sales to China alone accounted for 332,000 MT of the total, or 12.2 million bushels, representing the volume that the White House said China had promised to buy before the end of the year.

The table below is a list of all the flash sales that were reported during the government shutdown.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA raises corn, wheat carryout, lowers soybeans

The USDA released its November WASDE report on Friday, offering the latest supply and demand forecasts for the U.S. and the world after the October report was delayed. CORN The USDA lowered the average U.S. corn yield estimate to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production to 16.75 billion bushels. Beginning stocks were raised by…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 14, 2025

The USDA released its November WASDE report on Friday, offering the latest supply and demand forecasts for the U.S. and the world after the October report was delayed.

CORN
The USDA lowered the average U.S. corn yield estimate to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production to 16.75 billion bushels.

Beginning stocks were raised by 207 million bushels to reflect a higher carryout from the Sept. 30 Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

The corn export forecast was raised by 100 million bushels to a record 3.075 billion, reflecting strong shipments. Inspections data imply exports set a monthly record during September and October, the USDA noted.

The 2025/26 corn carryout was raised by 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion, which came in slightly below pre-report expectations.

Global corn ending stocks were mostly unchanged at 281.3 million metric tons (MMT), as lower Chinese stocks were offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine.

December corn futures traded slightly higher ahead of the report. However, the as-expected numbers led to profit-taking, sending prices more than a dime lower.

SOYBEANS
The USDA lowered the average soybean yield to 53 bpa, down half a bushel from the September report. Total production was lowered by 48 million bushels to 4.25 billion.

Exports were lowered by 50 million bushels from September. Despite the expectation of China purchasing U.S. soybeans, higher prices are expected to discourage demand from other importers.

Soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 10 million bushels to 290 million due to lower beginning stocks and production offsetting reduced demand.

Global ending stocks were lowered to 122 MMT, down 2 MMT from September. The reduced forecast reflects lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the U.S., the EU, Ukraine, and India.

January soybean futures sold off by about 15 cents initially following the report, despite lower-than-expected ending stocks. Speculative profit-taking and hedging pressure likely drove prices lower.

WHEAT
Winter wheat futures responded negatively to the WASDE report on Friday, as ending stocks came in well above market expectations.

The USDA raised its all wheat production estimate to 1.985 billion bushels, reflecting higher yields from the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary.

The demand forecast was left unchanged for December. The 2025/26 carryout was raised to 901 million bushels. If realized, that would be the highest carryout since the 2019/20 season.

The U.S. wheat market continues to experience a burdensome supply and demand situation, as increasing production offsets a five-year high in exports.

The global supply and demand situation also weighed on wheat futures. Ending stocks were raised to 271.4 MMT, up 7.3 MMT from the September report and a three-year high.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 14, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is sharply lower. Crude oil surged overnight following news of a drone attack at a Russian export terminal. Stock futures are sharply lower for a second day. CORN December corn is unchanged at $4.41 ½. March corn is down 0.50 cents…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 14, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is sharply lower. Crude oil surged overnight following news of a drone attack at a Russian export terminal. Stock futures are sharply lower for a second day.

CORN
December corn is unchanged at $4.41 ½. March corn is down 0.50 cents at $4.55.

Futures posted a strong rally and rose 6.25 cents on Thursday to $4.41 ½ a bushel, trading at the highest in more than four months. Prices broke out above last week’s highs ahead of today’s USDA report.

Prices rallying past the 200-day moving average is also a strong signal for the market. December $4.50 is likely the next resistance level.

The USDA will release its WASDE report later today, which will likely add some volatility to today’s trade. The USDA will also release all the crop flash sales that would have gone out absent the government shutdown, creating a heavy amount of data flowing at once.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are up 1.50 cents at $11.48 ½. New crop November soybeans are up 1 cent at $11.22 ¾. Soybean oil is higher and reversed some of its weekly losses. Soybean meal is unchanged and holding onto Thursday’s gains.

Yesterday’s strong upside breakout in soybeans and soybean meal is positive. However, friendly numbers out of today’s report could still lead to profit-taking in a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation.

The long-awaited WASDE report is expected to show lower soybean yields today, though ending stocks are a larger question mark.

The White House hosted oil and biofuel groups yesterday to once again find some common ground on upcoming biofuel policy. Reuters said the meeting signals that the Trump administration could be nearing a final rule on the renewable volume obligations and how to reallocate recent blending waivers that were approved.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 4.25 cents at $5.56 ½. KC wheat is up 3.75 cents at $5.46 ¾. Spring wheat is up 3 cents at $5.86.

Futures finally traded with more gusto after posting moderate gains most of this week. March Chicago futures traded 0.25 cents lower on Thursday. Overnight trading brought more buyers amid geopolitical factors.

Bloomberg reported that a major drone strike hit Russia’s key grain and oil export terminal overnight, which could be providing some support for wheat. The extent of the damage has not yet been reported, but the strike comes at a time when Russian wheat exports have been improving.

India is considering resuming some wheat exports after more than three years of restrictions. Trade talks have appeared to bring a cozier attitude between the U.S. and India recently. Trump said he might cut tariffs on Indian goods at some point. Better relations could open the door for U.S. exporters to ship wheat to India.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA begins reporting export sales data again

The USDA released its export sales report on Thursday for the week ending Sept. 25. Corn export sales stayed firm, while soybean sales rebounded from the previous week. The agency said it will periodically release unpublished export reports.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 13, 2025

The USDA released its export sales report on Thursday for the week ending Sept. 25.

U.S. corn export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 1.39 million metric tons (MMT). Mexico was the top buyer for the week, followed by South Korea and Guatemala. New crop sales

Exports totaled 1.43 MMT, bringing total commitments to 27.15 MMT, up 65 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export sales for 2025/26 rose to 870,500 metric tons (MT), compared to 724,500 MT the previous week. The Netherlands led the buying for the week, followed by Egypt and Japan. Sales were well below the five-year average for the week but returned to their marketing-year highs. Exports totaled 611,300 MT, bringing total commitments to 11.87 MMT, down 37 percent from the previous season.

U.S. wheat export sales for the current marketing year fell to 315,800 MT, hitting a three week low. Nigeria was the top buyer for the week, with South Korea and Bangladesh also leading the buying.

Exports for the week totaled 873,300 MT, pushing total wheat export commitments to 13.96 MMT, up about 22 percent from the previous season.

Note: The agency said it will periodically release unpublished export reports that will take seven weeks before catching up to the normal schedule. Normal reporting won’t resume until Jan. 8, 2026. Here is the full release schedule:

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 13, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower. Crude oil is higher following yesterday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are lower after the Dow hit new all-time highs on Wednesday.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 13, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower. Crude oil is higher following yesterday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are lower after the Dow hit new all-time highs on Wednesday.

The federal government will finally reopen today after the House successfully voted to send the bill to the president’s desk Wednesday evening. We expect a heavy amount of data flowing to the public over the next couple of weeks, including USDA export data and Commitment of Traders data.

CORN

December corn is up 1 cent at $4.36 ¼. March corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.49.

December futures gained another 3.25 cents on Wednesday and moved to the upper end of their range. Prices are approaching the $4.37 resistance, where a move above the level could trigger additional technical buying.

The USDA will release its WASDE report tomorrow. Be sure to check out the pre-report survey estimates already published on the app in Market Intelligence yesterday. The market is currently expecting lower corn yields but slightly higher ending stocks from the September report.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) raised its 2025/26 corn production forecast to 138.84 MMT, up 233,000 MT from the October estimate. The increase was due to higher-than-expected planted acreage. Output is still expected to be 1.6 percent lower than last season.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are 7.75 cents higher at $11.41 ½. New crop November soybeans are up 3 cents at $11.18 ¾. Soybean oil and soybean meal are higher.

January futures pushed to the upper end of their range after a 6.50-cent gain on Wednesday. Prices continued to move higher in what appears to be an upside breakout. Prices may give back some of those gains when the morning session begins.

Prices have continued to perform welling, pushing to 17-month highs despite the lack of confirmation of China buying more U.S. soybeans. The government reopening will finally give us a better sense of potential buying.

Conab lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast slightly to 177.6 MMT compared to October. Output is still expected to be 3.6 percent higher than last year and a record. Conab said planting has not been done under ideal conditions for many areas.

WHEAT

March Chicago wheat is down 1 cent at $5.51 ½. KC wheat is down 1.50 cents at $5.40 ¼. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.83 ¼.

Wheat markets were the most quiet out of the grains and oilseed yesterday. Prices recovered from an initial decline in the morning, with March Chicago futures closing just 0.75 cent higher. The $5.53 level continued to limit price gains, though an upside breakout in corn could help wheat climb through that level.

The market is likely trading more cautiously in anticipation of higher ending stocks out of tomorrow’s WASDE report.

The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained its record Argentine wheat forecast after hiking production expectations to 24.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from the previous estimate. Farmers continued to harvest fields this week.

France’s soft-wheat exports are expected to reach 15 MMT in the 2025/26 season, up 44.2 percent year-over-year. Stockpiles are projected at 2.83 MMT, according to FranceAgriMer.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Wheat trades near resistance amid global pressure

Chicago wheat futures are testing key resistance near $5.53 after last week’s pullback. Expectations of higher U.S. ending stocks and cheaper global prices continue to weigh on the market, though strength in corn and soybeans could spark a rebound. Russian exports remain active, adding to global supply pressure.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 12, 2025

Winter wheat prices struggled to hold their gains from last week’s rally to three-month highs. Aside from expectations of higher wheat ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report, global wheat values have been weighing on U.S. prices.

Chicago wheat futures are off to a stronger start this week following last week’s moderate losses. The March contract traded 1.25 cents higher on Wednesday, closing right at the $5.53 resistance level. An upside breakout in corn and soybeans could encourage wheat to punch back above resistance.

U.S. winter wheat areas are expected to receive better chances of rain next week, according to Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions. The Southwest and Plains have been very dry over the past two to three weeks.

Global wheat prices fell under pressure this week, according to Ukraine-based research firm UkrAgroConsult. U.S. prices remain above Russian and French competitors. Importers are expected to scoop up more wheat supplies this month due to lower prices. Interfax reported that Russia could export 5.3 million metric tons (MMT) in November, compared to 4.53 MMT a year ago. Total shipments for the marketing year remain below last year despite the improvement in recent months.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Grains gear up for November WASDE release

Traders anticipate the USDA will trim U.S. corn and soybean yields in Friday’s WASDE report following last month’s shutdown delay. Ending stocks for both crops are projected slightly higher, while global estimates may rise. Wheat stocks are also seen increasing as export competition weighs on demand.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 12, 2025

The USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday after last month’s hiatus with the government shutdown. The USDA announced on Oct. 30 that it will release the crop report regardless of the government shutdown.

CORN

To much anticipation, the USDA is expected to lower corn yields compared to the September estimate. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts the average national yield to fall to 184 bushels per acre (bpa), compared to the previous estimate of 186.7 bpa. Production is expected to decline to 16.57 billion bushels. If realized, that would still be about 1.5 billion higher than the previous record set in 2021 due to large acreage.

Corn ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 58 million bushels to 2.168 billion despite the lower production estimate. The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which was released on Sept. 30, will likely play a role after the USDA increased the 2024/25 carryout by about 200 million bushels from the September WASDE report. The large upward revisions suggest that demand last season was lower than expected despite strong exports and corn for ethanol.

Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to be raised to 283.2 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.8 MMT from the previous estimate.

SOYBEANS

Like corn, the average soybean yield estimate is expected to be lower. The average analyst guess is predicted at 53.1 bpa, compared to the previous September estimate of 53.5 bpa.

Ending stocks are expected to be raised slightly to 306 million bushels. It is unclear whether the USDA will recognize China’s alleged promise to purchase 12 MMT (441 million bushels) of soybeans through the rest of the year. In the past, the USDA only acknowledged official policies and trade deals.

Global ending stocks are expected to be slightly higher at 124.4 MMT. That estimate could increase by a larger amount if the agency raises South American production higher than the current 175 MMT.

WHEAT

Wheat ending stocks are expected to be raised by 25 million bushels from the previous report to 869 million. If realized, that would be the highest carryout since the 2019/20 season.

Wheat export demand has been strong since the start of the season. Weekly export inspections data shows shipments are running 19 percent ahead of last year and at the fastest pace since the 2016/17 season. The USDA currently forecasts wheat exports to be the highest since the 2020/21 marketing year. Despite strong shipments, global wheat demand has been declining, while competition among major importers has been higher.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 12, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher and has been consolidating after hitting multi-month highs last week. Crude oil is sharply lower and is weighing on corn. Stock futures are higher for a fourth session.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 12, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher and has been consolidating after hitting multi-month highs last week. Crude oil is sharply lower and is weighing on corn. Stock futures are higher for a fourth session.

CORN

December corn is down 0.50 cents at $4.31 ½. March corn is down 1 cent at $4.46.

Futures posted moderate gains on Tuesday, trading 2.50 cents higher. Price gains were limited by the 200-day moving average, which prices have gravitated toward since prices attempted an upside breakout earlier this month.

Consolidation seems to be the theme for the corn market ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Near-term resistance is around Oct. 30 high of $4.37. Support is around the $4.28 to $4.30 area.

A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the USDA to lower its average corn yield estimate on Friday. However, 2025/26 ending stocks are expected to be higher than the September forecast. We will release a full breakdown of the pre-report surveys later today.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are down 0.50 cents at $11.26 ¾. New crop November soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $11.10 ¼. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is moderately higher.

Futures rejected a move lower on Tuesday’s open, but the lack of follow-buying left January prices just 2.75 cents lower on the day.

Friday’s WASDE report should give the market better fundamental news after radio silence from the USDA over the past month and a half. Pre-report expectations expect a slight increase in 2025/26 ending stocks from the September report.

Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans remained quiet again despite China’s alleged promise to buy 12 MMT of soybeans through the rest of the year. China still has a 13 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, making them more expensive than Brazilian supplies. There has been little incentive for importers to seek U.S. supplies, unless they are buying products under the radar.

WHEAT

March Chicago wheat is down 7.75 cents at $5.44 ¼. KC wheat is down 6 cents at $5.33 ¼. Spring wheat is down 2.25 cents at $5.81 ½.

Chicago futures struggled to trade back above the $5.53 ½ resistance level, as well as the 100-day moving average. Prices could still find support around Friday’s low of $5.41.

Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show higher U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year. The average analyst guess is predicting a 25-million-bushel increase from the September forecast.

Global wheat prices have been weighing on U.S. futures after taking a step back this week in the Black Sea and EU. Global values remain well below U.S. competitors.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon said Russian wheat export prices fell to a new low for the year after hitting the lowest price since August 2024. Wheat supplies are abundant throughout Russia, though exports have been increasing due to lower prices.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.