The USDA released its November WASDE report on Friday, offering the latest supply and demand forecasts for the U.S. and the world after the October report was delayed.
CORN
The USDA lowered the average U.S. corn yield estimate to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production to 16.75 billion bushels.
Beginning stocks were raised by 207 million bushels to reflect a higher carryout from the Sept. 30 Quarterly Grain Stocks report.
The corn export forecast was raised by 100 million bushels to a record 3.075 billion, reflecting strong shipments. Inspections data imply exports set a monthly record during September and October, the USDA noted.
The 2025/26 corn carryout was raised by 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion, which came in slightly below pre-report expectations.
Global corn ending stocks were mostly unchanged at 281.3 million metric tons (MMT), as lower Chinese stocks were offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine.
December corn futures traded slightly higher ahead of the report. However, the as-expected numbers led to profit-taking, sending prices more than a dime lower.
SOYBEANS
The USDA lowered the average soybean yield to 53 bpa, down half a bushel from the September report. Total production was lowered by 48 million bushels to 4.25 billion.
Exports were lowered by 50 million bushels from September. Despite the expectation of China purchasing U.S. soybeans, higher prices are expected to discourage demand from other importers.
Soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 10 million bushels to 290 million due to lower beginning stocks and production offsetting reduced demand.
Global ending stocks were lowered to 122 MMT, down 2 MMT from September. The reduced forecast reflects lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the U.S., the EU, Ukraine, and India.
January soybean futures sold off by about 15 cents initially following the report, despite lower-than-expected ending stocks. Speculative profit-taking and hedging pressure likely drove prices lower.
WHEAT
Winter wheat futures responded negatively to the WASDE report on Friday, as ending stocks came in well above market expectations.
The USDA raised its all wheat production estimate to 1.985 billion bushels, reflecting higher yields from the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary.
The demand forecast was left unchanged for December. The 2025/26 carryout was raised to 901 million bushels. If realized, that would be the highest carryout since the 2019/20 season.
The U.S. wheat market continues to experience a burdensome supply and demand situation, as increasing production offsets a five-year high in exports.
The global supply and demand situation also weighed on wheat futures. Ending stocks were raised to 271.4 MMT, up 7.3 MMT from the September report and a three-year high.
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