Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar index is higher. Crude oil is moderately higher. Stock futures are lower after failing to hold onto early overnight gains.
CORN
December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.31. March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.44 ¾.
Futures fell sharply on Friday, as the USDA’s WASDE report showed 2025/26 corn ending stocks were about as expected. However, the market did not get the yield cut that it was expecting, which was likely the primary driver of the selloff.
Record yields were still seen for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. The USDA did make a note that not all of the data sources it used were accessible due to the shutdown.
Corn prices moved back into their consolidation range after Thursday’s false upside breakout. The market may be looking for additional bullish indicators to get a notable move above key technical areas.
SOYBEANS
January soybeans are 13.25 cents higher at $11.37 ¾. New crop November soybeans are up 3.75 cents at $11.18 ¾. Soybean oil and soybean meal are higher.
Soybean futures have been the most resilient out of the grains and oilseeds. Like corn, futures sold off on Friday following neutral to even friendly WASDE numbers. Ending stocks and the national soybean yield came in below the average trade guesses.
Prices had slipped back into their consolidation range from early November. However, market bulls were back in control overnight.
The USDA’s massive flash sales release on Friday showed that China had been buying U.S. soybeans during the shutdown, though not close to what the White House said China promised to buy.
Despite optimism over China buying, the USDA still lowered the soybean export forecast due to higher prices sidelining other importers.
Soybean planting is nearly completed in Brazil’s major soybean-growing state of Mato Grosso. Overall, the weather has been mostly favorable for crop establishment in Brazil, though precipitation has been below normal so far this season.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 5.75 cents at $5.47 ¼. KC wheat is up 3.75 cents at $5.34 ¾. Spring wheat is up 5.25 cents at $5.81 ½.
Chicago futures sold off heavily on Friday, closing 10.75 cents lower on the day. The USDA’s WASDE confirmed the bearish sentiment in the global marketplace by raising world ending stocks by more than 7 MMT.
The market needs to move past the bearish sentiment to climb above the $5.53 resistance level, which is about at the 100-day moving average. However, Friday’s low may have helped solidify the bottom end of a trading range.
Argentina is expecting a record harvest, with exports expected to be the best out of the past four decades. The Rosario Grain Exchange and Buenos Aires Grain Exchange both raised their production estimates to reflect strong yield outlooks.
Editor’s note: This article was updated to reflect that China has not bought the 12 MMT of soybeans the White House said China promised to buy.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.