Grains and oilseeds are mixed again on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower but held above $100 on the index. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures attempted to recover again overnight after failing to hold onto gains yesterday.
CORN
May corn traded sharply lower on Monday, losing 6 cents to close at $4.67 ½.
The corn market has been pricing in bearish numbers ahead of the grains stocks and planting intentions reports. Higher-than-expected stocks and acreage numbers could lead to long liquidation in the market.
Front-month May futures are currently trading at support levels ahead of the report. A bounce above $4.65 could be positive.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported last week that corn harvest progress reached 15.2 percent. Rainfall slowed progress recently, but early yield reports are being reported as fair. More than three-quarters of the crop are rated in good to excellent condition.
SOYBEANS
May soybeans traded a modest 0.50 cents lower on Monday to $11.59 ¾. Prices continued to consolidate ahead of today’s reports. Resistance is around $11.80
Soybean oil posted fresh contract highs on Monday, supported by higher crude oil. Soybean meal prices have been struggling to hold onto gains but have been working to trend higher since February.
Today’s reports are expected to show higher soybean acres compared to last year. The question is how many acres did soybeans buy after the recent run-up in prices.
Soybean crop conditions have improved slightly in Argentina, with 81 percent of the crop rated normal to excellent after recent rainfall. Argentinian farmers have just started harvesting first-crop soybeans, though not in full force.
WHEAT
May Chicago wheat traded slightly higher on Monday after rising 2 cents to close at $6.07. Prices have been consolidating around $6 over the past few weeks since hitting multi-month highs earlier this month.
Pre-report expectations call for lower wheat acreage for this season. A bearish surprise would include the USDA keeping wheat acres steady or raising them slightly compared to a year ago.
Outside of today’s reports, weather remains a focus for the wheat emerging from dormancy. Winter wheat conditions further deteriorated over the past week amid lackluster rainfall for much of the Plains.
Forty percent of Kansas’ crop was in good/excellent condition as of last week, down 6 percent from the previous week. Oklahoma’s ratings ticked lower by a percentage point to 13 percent good/excellent. Nebraska and South Dakota’s ratings fell by 9 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Montan was the only state with winter wheat conditions improving.
Government models expect rainfall to reach key HRW wheat areas in Oklahoma, Texas, and South Dakota this week that need moisture. Plentiful rainfall and possible storms are expected to hit SRW wheat areas as well.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.