The USDA will release its May WASDE report on Tuesday, updating its old crop forecasts and releasing the official forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Old crop corn demand in focus
Starting with corn, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts a slight increase in the 2025/26 U.S. carryout forecast. Ending stocks are expected to remain above 2 billion bushels, which doesn’t seem out of line, even with the strong demand outlook.
There is room for the USDA to raise its export forecast, given the strong pace of sales and shipments. We discussed the possibility in a previous commentary. The question is whether a potential increase in exports will be offset by a decline in the corn ethanol or feed and residual usage categories.
Related Post: Could the USDA raise its corn export forecast again?
One theme remains apparent: demand is strong, but so were last year’s supplies.
Looking at the new crop balance sheet, 2026/27 corn ending stocks are expected to start off lower than 2 billion bushels. The average analyst guess pins tomorrow’s forecast at 1.942 billion bushels, 185 million bushels less than the current old crop forecast.
The USDA will likely bring in the trendline yield estimate of 183 bushels per acre, with corn production expected to fall about 1 billion bushels from last year’s record to 15.99 billion.
Demand is a question mark. Higher corn prices could lead to some demand rationing, challenging record corn exports and feed usage this season.
Brazil and Argentina’s corn production forecasts are expected to increase this month. The average analyst guess pins the Argentina outlook 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) higher at 55.3 MMT. Earlier this month, the Foreign Agricultural Service raised its post outlook to 61 MMT, making an increase very likely.
Brazil’s production is expected to increase by about 1 MMT from April to 133.3 MMT. Drier conditions have been emerging, but private and government forecasters have been reluctant to lower estimates.
Soybean carryouts a mixed bag
The 2025/26 soybean balance sheet is expected to show virtually no change to the carryout forecast. Soybean exports could decline further, with crush demand potentially offsetting those reductions. That would leave the forecast unchanged at 350 million bushels.
Total export commitments are running 18 percent lower than the previous season, which is in line with the current forecast. Positive developments for exports to China may carry over to the new marketing year, considering seasonal trends.
The new crop balance sheet is not expected to be bullish. The 2026/27 carryout is expected to increase 16 million bushels from the current season forecast to 366 million bushels.
Soybean production for 2026/27 is expected to increase by 185 million bushels to 4.45 billion. Again, the average yield will likely come in at the trendline of 53 bushels per acre.
World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged from last month. New crop stocks could increase slightly.
Wheat production to drag new crop stocks lower
The old crop 2025/26 ending stocks for all wheat are expected to be mostly unchanged at 938 million bushels this month. Total export commitments are above the USDA’s target, but shipments will have to remain strong, or they will get carried over to the next season.
Eyes will be on the agency’s wheat production numbers. The average analyst guess from the Bloomberg survey pins all wheat production at 1.747 billion bushels, down 238 million from the previous season. That may be a conservative estimate if abandonment rates are higher due to severe drought in the Plains.
The new crop 2026/27 ending stocks are expected to decline by 93 million bushels from the current season to 845 million. That would be the first year-over-year decline in the carryout since the 2022/23 season.
Global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to be unchanged from April. New crop stocks could decline slightly due to expectations of lower global production.
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