Fertilizer prices surged over the past week amid the expanding conflict in the Middle East. Urea prices in New Orleans jumped 21 percent from the previous week to $570 per short ton on Friday, according to Bloomberg Green Markets. That was the highest price since October 2022. UAN prices jumped 22 percent during the same…
Fertilizer prices surged over the past week amid the expanding conflict in the Middle East. Urea prices in New Orleans jumped 21 percent from the previous week to $570 per short ton on Friday, according to Bloomberg Green Markets. That was the highest price since October 2022. UAN prices jumped 22 percent during the same period to $392.50 per ton.
Global fertilizer prices have firmed since the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route for nutrient exports in the Middle East. Fertilizer supplies are expected to experience large disruptions. India, Pakistan, and Qatar have already shut down some fertilizer production due to halted shipments of liquified natural gas, a key nitrogen fertilizer ingredient, Bloomberg reported.
Over a third of urea imports come from the Middle East, according to The Fertilizer Institute. U.S. Census data showed that the Middle East accounted for nearly two-thirds of phosphorus fertilizer imports in 2025. About a third of the shipments came from Saudi Arabia.
Closer to home, Bloomberg reported that the Justice Department has been investigating Nutrien Ltd. and Mosaic Co. for potential price scheming in fertilizer prices. CF Industry Holdings Inc., Koch Inc., and Norway’s Yara International ASA, are also part of the investigation. The key priority is addressing high input costs, particularly fertilizer.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
The Green Markets North American fertilizer price index rose for a second week to $725.10 per ton, up 2.5 percent from last Friday. The index rose to its highest price since the week ending Aug. 29. Wholesale urea prices increased over the past month, pushing the index higher. MAP prices also increased slightly through January.…
The Green Markets North American fertilizer price index rose for a second week to $725.10 per ton, up 2.5 percent from last Friday. The index rose to its highest price since the week ending Aug. 29.
Wholesale urea prices increased over the past month, pushing the index higher. MAP prices also increased slightly through January. Corn Belt potash prices rose following weeks of declines.
Nitrogen fertilizer prices saw a sizable spike this week, as supply concerns remained in focus. Ammonia was steady throughout January after falling from its fall peak, but prices in Tampa surged by $40 this week. Meanwhile, urea prices have firmed in recent weeks after China halted urea exports through the first half of this year. UAN prices also spiked higher this week, rising to the highest since mid-November.
Tight global supplies have kept upward pressure on phosphate prices to end 2025. U.S. inventories will likely remain constrained after China suspended exports through the third quarter of this year, according to Bloomberg analysts. China represents about 30 percent of global trade – when they are trading. DAP affordability in relation to corn prices remains at a record low, driven by supply constraints and large corn plantings last season.
U.S. DAP/MAP imports for January through November 2025 totaled 1.18 million tons, down 45 percent year-over-year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau this week. Monthly data continued to reflect very low imports, with total shipments at the lowest for the period since 2015.
That doesn’t bode well after U.S. farmers reportedly planted about 99 million acres of corn last year. The Corn:Soybean ratio continues to favor corn plantings this upcoming season even if acreage normalizes with the typical crop rotation.
The US Department of Commerce will begin a sunset review on US phosphate duties in March. That includes anti-dumping duties on imports from Morocco, which have largely limited fertilizer imports since 2021. However, the duties are expected to survive the review and continue to restrict fertilizer flows.
Potash prices remain fairly priced compared to corn prices. Inventories have been adequate due to limited supply disruptions for North American producers. U.S. potash imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 13 million tons, down 8 percent year-over-year. Still, shipments were the third-largest out of the past five years, as Canada remained a reliable supplier.
President Donald Trump recently threatened to impose hefty tariffs on Canada in response to Canada trying to shore up trade relations with China. Potash imports from Canada represent more than 80 percent of total shipments, which would be vulnerable to tariffs.
Check out the latest fertilizer import data from the U.S. Census Bureau below. The agency will release December data on Feb. 19 and should resume its normal reporting in March.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Wholesale fertilizer prices kicked off the new year on a stronger note. The Green Markets North American fertilizer price index held firm this week at $691 per ton. The index erased December’s losses that took prices to $622. Most major fertilizers had retraced gains last month after the Trump administration rolled back tariffs on urea,…
Wholesale fertilizer prices kicked off the new year on a stronger note. The Green Markets North American fertilizer price index held firm this week at $691 per ton. The index erased December’s losses that took prices to $622.
Most major fertilizers had retraced gains last month after the Trump administration rolled back tariffs on urea, UAN, potash, and phosphate fertilizers. Phosphate prices have seen the largest decrease over the past month, slightly improving affordability for producers. Potash prices in the Corn Belt have also declined during the same period, while urea firmed up to end December.
Retail fertilizer prices in the Midwest kicked off the new year on a softer note. Iowa anhydrous ammonia averaged $850 per ton as of last week, down $7.20 from the previous two weeks, according to bi-weekly data from the USDA. MAP was $16.34 lower at an average of $869 per ton.
The agency began reporting urea data again, with prices sitting at an average of $543 per ton, compared to $686.60 last reported in August.
Prices saw similar declines in Illinois, with DAP averaging $837, down $23 from the previous reporting period. Urea was $20 lower at $579 per ton, while anhydrous ammonia was $6.82 lower at $837.46.
U.S. Census data released last week showed that phosphate imports continued to trail well behind year-ago levels. January-October imports totaled 1.09 million metric tons (MMT), down 56 percent from the same period a year earlier. Imports were also well below the three-year average as shipments trended lower since 2019.
Aside from tariffs on key exporters, restricted phosphate exports in China have limited global trade, leading to strong fertilizer values. The Chinese government banned phosphate exports through August as electric battery demand and surging sulfur prices keep the domestic market tight. China exported 5.1 MMT of phosphate through November last year, down 18 percent from the previous year.
UAN imports have seen similar trends. Shipments through October reached 1.94 MMT, down about 3 percent from the same period the previous year and 16 percent lower than the same period in 2023. However, imports are higher than the three-year average due to a sharp drop in 2022.
UAN imports have seen similar trends. Shipments through October reached 1.94 MMT, down about 3 percent from the same period the previous year and 16 percent lower than the same period in 2023. However, imports are higher than the three-year average due to a sharp drop in 2022. Anhydrous ammonia imports have been declining over the past four years, while exports have been climbing.
Potash imports have been the most stable due to steady supplies coming from Canada. Limited disruptions have allowed trade flows to keep U.S. potash inventories well supplied over the past year. Nutrien Ltd. announced its potash winter fill program for shipment through the first quarter. The company reported “strong potash supply and demand fundamentals with engagement occurring across all major markets.”
Below is the full breakdown of U.S. fertilizer imports by nutrient through October 2025. The U.S. Census Bureau will issue November trade data on January 29, though the release of December statistics remains unscheduled.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Retail fertilizer prices pulled back slightly in the Midwest over the past couple of weeks. Anhydrous ammonia fertilizer in Iowa averaged $855 per ton by mid-December, according to data released by the USDA bi-weekly. Prices were about $12 lower than the previous reporting period. Meanwhile, MAP was $14.75 lower at an average of $899.75. Anhydrous…
Retail fertilizer prices pulled back slightly in the Midwest over the past couple of weeks. Anhydrous ammonia fertilizer in Iowa averaged $855 per ton by mid-December, according to data released by the USDA bi-weekly. Prices were about $12 lower than the previous reporting period. Meanwhile, MAP was $14.75 lower at an average of $899.75.
Anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois rose $4 from the previous report to an average of $482.91. Meanwhile, DAP was $14.45 lower at $870 per ton. Urea was $5 lower at $607 per ton.
Wholesale DAP and MAP prices have been correcting lower since August. Gulf NOLA DAP prices are down 22 percent since the Aug. 8 peak. Meanwhile, Gulf urea prices are trading back at their summer lows.
Trump threatens potash imports
This week, President Donald Trump threatened to impose severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports to spur more domestic production. However, tariffs could increase prices on one of the most affordable fertilizers available to U.S. farmers. Canada accounts for about 88 to 90 percent of U.S. potassium fertilizer imports. Russia accounts for about the other 10 percent of imports.
U.S. Fertilizer Trade
The U.S. Census Bureau released its latest fertilizer trade data through September. The October data, which was originally supposed to be released earlier this month before the government shutdown, has yet to be rescheduled.
The most recent data continued to show below-average phosphate imports through September, with year-to-date shipments totaling 1.08 million tons, down 53 percent year-over-year. Anhydrous ammonia imports are running 6 percent behind last year, while UAN is down 6.6 percent. Urea imports are running ahead of a year ago, sitting 8.6 percent higher.
China fertilizer export woes
Chinese fertilizer groups are urging domestic producers to halt exports of phosphate fertilizers to ensure domestic supplies and lower prices ahead of the spring planting season. Bloomberg reported that the groups urged a suspension until August. China has been restricting exports of phosphate fertilizers since 2021 to prioritize domestic supply.
Meanwhile, Chinese urea exports could exceed 6 million metric tons next year, which would be the highest since 2016. Urea shipments had rebounded between July and October, as higher domestic supplies allowed producers to send products to the global market.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
U.S. fertilizer availability could see some reprieve after the Trump administration announced reduced tariffs on some commodities. The fact sheet released by the administration last week says certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States. That exclusion extended to fertilizers. Josh…
U.S. fertilizer availability could see some reprieve after the Trump administration announced reduced tariffs on some commodities.
The fact sheet released by the administration last week says certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States. That exclusion extended to fertilizers.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, says that while the reduced tariffs could help, the move does not offer a large fix on the retail level.
“It helped remove a barrier. It made it a little easier to make the decisions, but ultimately speaking, it’s going to be a small move. It’s not going to be massive.”
On the retail level, Iowa anhydrous ammonia prices tracked by the USDA rose to an average of $856 per ton earlier this month, the highest since July 2023. MAP fertilizers averaged $917 per ton, the highest since January 2023.
Linville says global factors have been impacting U.S. prices. Eyes are still on China’s urea exports after a deadline expired last month for opening the export pipeline. However, Linville says more tonnage could still reach the global market.
“However, last week, the word is that China will allow 600,000 tons to be exported above and beyond the Oct. 15 date,” he says. “And the rumor mill is they could actually double that – they could jump it up to 1.2 million if they start looking through domestic supplies and prices, and they come to the conclusion that, ‘Yeah, we can let these tons be exported and we’ll be okay.’”
While more exportable supplies could help alleviate high prices, India’s latest urea tender is expected to be bullish for the global market.
The country recently issued a tender to buy 2.5 million tons of urea, which was much higher than the 1.5 million tons anticipated by analysts. Linville says that scenario could shape out to be a bullish event.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Wholesale fertilizer prices held mostly steady last week, with the Green Markets index down 1.3 percent to $692 per ton. DAP eased in the Corn Belt but remains 32 percent higher year-to-date. The U.S. added phosphate and potash to its critical minerals list, while China may release up to 600,000 tons of urea later this…
Wholesale fertilizer prices were mostly steady last week. The Green Markets North American fertilizer price index fell 1.3 percent this week to $692 per ton. The index stabilized over the past few weeks after falling to the lowest since late June. Wholesale DAP and urea prices in the Gulf were slightly lower last week. Meanwhile, MAP prices firmed, while potash was steady.
There has been some easing in Corn Belt DAP prices, though values are still 32 percent higher since the start of 2025, trading at $805 per ton, according to Green Markets.
Phosphate demand has been sluggish due to cost pressures from surging prices. Brazil’s MAP imports are down substantially from last year. What has been shipped, primarily came from Saudi Arabia and Morocco. U.S. importers have been competing for fewer supplies, which has put upward pressure on prices.
The Department of Interior added phosphate and potash to the critical minerals list. The move opens the door to potential federal investments to strengthen the fertilizer supply chain and support domestic production. However, the current reciprocal tariffs have put a major strain on imports, leading to low nitrogen and phosphorus inventories.
Globally, major urea exporters were unwilling to drop prices to secure large sales for India’s latest tender. India still needs 2.5 million metric tons of urea by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg.
There have been rumblings that China is ready to release another 500,000 to 600,000 metric tons of urea into the global marketplace during the final quarter of this year, which could help ease prices. Another report indicated that China could set its 2026 export allocations at 6-8 MMT.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
U.S. ammonia prices continued to climb in early October, supported by tight inventories and firm global demand ahead of fall application. International strength and steady domestic use have kept the market well supported, even as other fertilizers show signs of softening.
U.S. wholesale and retail ammonia prices continued to push higher this month despite cooling in other markets. Firming international prices and a strong domestic market ahead of fall application have been a major driver of current strength.
Retail anhydrous ammonia prices in Iowa averaged $822.43 per ton as of Oct. 3, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service bi-weekly report. Prices were $32 higher than the previous reporting period and the highest since December 2023.
“We just have to wait a few more weeks and ammonia will be running,” a regional contact told Bloomberg Green Markets. “Ammonia inventory in the Mid-west is tighter than most realize.”
Consequently, retail values could continue to strengthen through the winter before heading for their typical seasonal lull next spring.
The latest Census data released for July shows that U.S. anhydrous ammonia imports are running 15 percent behind last year. Meanwhile, exports are up 32 percent for the first seven months of 2025. U.S. ammonia imports have declined substantially over the past decade. However, the country remains a net importer due to record domestic consumption.
Trade data for August has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
Meanwhile, stronger corn plantings in Brazil have been increasing the country’s nitrogen demand.
Brazil’s ammonia imports have been running 8 percent above last year due to higher supplies from Trinidad and Tobago, which have accounted for 73 percent of total imports, according to Trade Data Monitor. Additionally, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia continue to export ammonia to Brazil.
Wholesale phosphate prices have eased recently, though retail prices continued to move higher in October. Iowa retail monoammonium phosphate prices strengthened to an average of $911.13 per ton, up $23 from the previous reporting period.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
The Green Markets fertilizer index slipped to $692 per ton, its lowest since June, as urea, DAP, and MAP spot prices declined. India’s recent tenders pressured global urea values, but U.S. retail prices remain firm, with DAP still 6 percent higher than a month ago.
The Green Markets North American fertilizer price index fell for a ninth consecutive week to $692 per ton for the week ending Oct. 3, the lowest since late June.
The decline was due to a decrease in the spot price of urea, DAP, and MAP. Urea prices have extended their decline since India’s massive Sept. 2 tender was met with lower prices. India issued another tender on Wednesday for 2 MMT of urea for delivery in December.
Retail fertilizer prices have been more reluctant to move lower. DAP prices remained 6 percent higher than a month ago, according to retail sellers tracked by DTN. Prices of MAP, potash, anhydrous, and UAN were also higher than a month ago.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
The Green Markets North American fertilizer index fell nearly 2 percent last week to $698 per ton. Retail markets have been steady, with prices sitting well above levels from the beginning of the year.
The Green Markets North American fertilizer index fell nearly 2 percent last week to $698 per ton. The index fell for an eighth consecutive week, hitting its lowest since the week ending July 4. Wholesale urea prices led that decline, with other nitrogen fertilizers slipping lower. DAP inched lower last week, while MAP fertilizer took a sharper turn lower.
Retail fertilizer prices remain firm despite the weakness in wholesale markets. Anhydrous ammonia prices in Iowa averaged $784 per ton last month, up 8.7 percent from the beginning of the year. Urea prices are about 18 percent higher than in January, averaging $687 per ton. The retail DAP price is approximately 21 percent higher, averaging $877 per ton.
The USDA said it will work with the Department of Justice to look into competitive practices in the fertilizer industry in response to high input costs. Additionally, a bipartisan group of lawmakers sent a letter to the Department of the Interior requesting that phosphate be added to the list of critical minerals. Adding it to the list would help safeguard imports, which have fallen to multi-year lows despite large demand.
In the global markets, it’s anticipated that India will issue another tender for 2 million metric tons of urea. Purchases have been well ahead of last year due to domestic production being unable to offset higher demand. India’s strong demand has tightened global urea supplies, keeping upward pressure on international prices.
— PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
North American wholesale fertilizer prices fell for a fifth straight week, led by weaker urea values as China raised export quotas and India secured a record tender. Phosphate prices remain elevated on tight U.S. inventories, while UAN and potash showed mixed trends. U.S. trade data highlighted stronger UAN imports and falling phosphate inflows.
The Green Markets North American Fertilizer price index fell one percent to $716 per ton during the week ending Sept. 12. That was the lowest level in nearly two months as global fertilizer volatility declines. Earlier this summer, the index had risen to the highest price since November 2022, when prices were coming off their record highs.
Urea prices led the recent decline on signs of global prices softening with India’s latest tender, and higher exports from China. Weak natural gas, a key ingredient for nitrogen fertilizers, helped provide downward pressure over the past month.
Inland urea prices backed off considerably from their May peak as prices softened ahead of summer fill programs. Extraordinarily tight supplies have kept upward pressure on phosphate prices. Spot prices of DAP in the Eastern Corn Belt rose as high as $845 per ton in August before sinking about $10 lower heading into September. Potash prices have remained relatively flat with a bullish tilt as the U.S. currently has a 10 percent tariff set on fertilizer imports from Canada.
Upward pressure remained on UAN prices in response to tight supplies. Spot wholesale prices in the Gulf rose for a third week as of Sept. 5 to $330 per ton, $15 lower than the May peak.
U.S. Trade Highlights
Note: The U.S. Census Bureau releases monthly trade data, which covers trade from two months prior to the release date. The values are a lagging indicator but offer a broad trend for nutrient availability in the U.S.
Urea
U.S. urea imports totaled 105,000 tons in July, down 28.6 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date imports totaled 4.21 million tons, up nearly four percent from the previous year.
Qatar was the largest origin of urea during July, representing 32 percent of shipments, followed by Canada (21 percent), Russia (20 percent), and Trinidad and Tobago (10 percent).
Urea exports totaled 56,000 MT in July, down 60.6 percent from a year ago. Year-to-date exports rose to 327,400 MT, down 38 percent from last year.
Anhydrous Ammonia
Anhydrous ammonia imports totaled 175,650 tons in July, down 3 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date imports reached 1.27 million tons, down 15 percent from last year. Canada was the largest origin of anhydrous ammonia imports during July, representing more than half of the shipments. Trinidad and Tobago represented 46 percent of shipments.
Anhydrous ammonia exports totaled 194,890 tons in July, up 72 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date shipments reached 844,620 tons, up 32 percent from the previous year.
Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN)
UAN imports totaled 246,000 tons in July, up 103 percent from July 2024. Total shipments for the calendar year reached 1.62 million tons, tracking slightly below a year ago. Russia was the top supplier of UAN imports during the month, accounting for 58 percent of total shipments. Russia supplied about half of UAN imports for the current calendar year.
Despite imports improving during the month, outbound shipments were higher than inbound shipments, with exports totaling 286,000 tons. Year-to-date exports are 8 percent lower compared to a year ago at 849,000 tons, the lowest since 2022.
Phosphates (DAP/MAP)
DAP/MAP imports totaled 8,970 tons in July, down 86 percent from July 2024. Total imports for the calendar year rose to 983,000 tons, down 47 percent from the same period last year. Israel was the major origin of phosphate during the month, while Saudi Arabia accounted for 38 percent of total phosphate imports this year.
Exports totaled 95,036 tons in July, down 29 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date exports rose to 1.21 million tons, 12 percent lower than the same period last year.
Potassium Muriate (Potash)
U.S. potash imports totaled 1.19 million tons, up 8.6 percent from July 2024. Total shipments between January and July rose to 8.41 million tons, down 10 percent year-over-year.
Canada is the No. 1 origin of potassium imports for the U.S. this year, accounting for nearly 90 percent of total shipments. Russia nearly accounts for the remaining 10 percent.
Exports totaled 506,520 tons in July, up 44 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date shipments rose to 2.98 million tons, down 6 percent from a year ago.
Global Highlights
China exported 570,000 metric tons (MT) of fertilizer in August, up from just 70,000 MT the previous month. Year-to-date shipments reached 640,000 MT for the first eight months, and are more than triple the volumes from the same period last year. This month, China raised its urea export quota to 4 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025, up 700,000 MT from the previous quota. China only exported about 260,000 MT of urea in 2024, following heavy restrictions on fertilizer exports to ensure domestic supplies.
Russian fertilizer exports to China and India are expected to hit a record this year, according to the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers. Russia has already shipped about 2.5 MMT of fertilizer to India, which could hit 5 MMT by the end of the year.
India reportedly secured its latest urea tender of around 2.5 MMT, the largest tonnage for a single tender in at least the past five years. Prices for the tender dropped 12 percent from August after 5.6 MMT of urea were offered by suppliers.
President Donald Trump has been threatening additional sanctions on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Despite previous restrictions imposed early on in the war, Russia remains a large supplier of fertilizer for the U.S. Global prices could continue to experience upward pressure if trade flows are disrupted.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
North American wholesale fertilizer prices fell for a fifth straight week, led by weaker urea values amid expanded Chinese export quotas and India’s latest tender. Phosphate prices remain elevated, with tight U.S. inventories and restricted Chinese exports keeping the market firm.
Wholesale fertilizer prices backed off for a fifth consecutive week on Friday.
The Green Markets North American Fertilizer price index fell one percent to $722.86 per ton during the week ending Sept. 5. That was the lowest level in nearly two months as global fertilizer volatility declines.
Urea prices led the decline this week on signs of global prices softening with India’s latest tender. Additionally, China raised its urea export quota, with some of those tons going to India.
More tonnage coming online for the global market could offer some better pricing opportunities ahead of the spring pre-pay period.
Meanwhile, phosphate prices remain sticky at high levels, especially in the retail markets.
The latest U.S. Census data showed July phosphate imports remained substantially lower than usual. Tight U.S. inventories will keep upward pressure on phosphates.
China has yet to relax DAP export restrictions. The country’s phosphate exports totaled 2.2 million metric tons through July, down about 30 percent from last year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.