Wholesale Prices Pull Back From Highs

The Green Markets North American Fertilizer price index fell one percent to $716 per ton during the week ending Sept. 12. That was the lowest level in nearly two months as global fertilizer volatility declines. Earlier this summer, the index had risen to the highest price since November 2022, when prices were coming off their record highs. 

Urea prices led the recent decline on signs of global prices softening with India’s latest tender, and higher exports from China. Weak natural gas, a key ingredient for nitrogen fertilizers, helped provide downward pressure over the past month. 

Inland urea prices backed off considerably from their May peak as prices softened ahead of summer fill programs. Extraordinarily tight supplies have kept upward pressure on phosphate prices. Spot prices of DAP in the Eastern Corn Belt rose as high as $845 per ton in August before sinking about $10 lower heading into September. Potash prices have remained relatively flat with a bullish tilt as the U.S. currently has a 10 percent tariff set on fertilizer imports from Canada. 

Upward pressure remained on UAN prices in response to tight supplies. Spot wholesale prices in the Gulf rose for a third week as of Sept. 5 to $330 per ton, $15 lower than the May peak. 

U.S. Trade Highlights

Note: The U.S. Census Bureau releases monthly trade data, which covers trade from two months prior to the release date. The values are a lagging indicator but offer a broad trend for nutrient availability in the U.S. 

Urea

U.S. urea imports totaled 105,000 tons in July, down 28.6 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date imports totaled 4.21 million tons, up nearly four percent from the previous year. 

Qatar was the largest origin of urea during July, representing 32 percent of shipments, followed by Canada (21 percent), Russia (20 percent), and Trinidad and Tobago (10 percent). 

Urea exports totaled 56,000 MT in July, down 60.6 percent from a year ago. Year-to-date exports rose to 327,400 MT, down 38 percent from last year. 

Anhydrous Ammonia

Anhydrous ammonia imports totaled 175,650 tons in July, down 3 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date imports reached 1.27 million tons, down 15 percent from last year. Canada was the largest origin of anhydrous ammonia imports during July, representing more than half of the shipments. Trinidad and Tobago represented 46 percent of shipments. 

Anhydrous ammonia exports totaled 194,890 tons in July, up 72 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date shipments reached 844,620 tons, up 32 percent from the previous year. 

Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN)

UAN imports totaled 246,000 tons in July, up 103 percent from July 2024. Total shipments for the calendar year reached 1.62 million tons, tracking slightly below a year ago. Russia was the top supplier of UAN imports during the month, accounting for 58 percent of total shipments. Russia supplied about half of UAN imports for the current calendar year. 

Despite imports improving during the month, outbound shipments were higher than inbound shipments, with exports totaling 286,000 tons. Year-to-date exports are 8 percent lower compared to a year ago at 849,000 tons, the lowest since 2022. 

Phosphates (DAP/MAP)

DAP/MAP imports totaled 8,970 tons in July, down 86 percent from July 2024. Total imports for the calendar year rose to 983,000 tons, down 47 percent from the same period last year. Israel was the major origin of phosphate during the month, while Saudi Arabia accounted for 38 percent of total phosphate imports this year. 

Exports totaled 95,036 tons in July, down 29 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date exports rose to 1.21 million tons, 12 percent lower than the same period last year. 

Potassium Muriate (Potash)

U.S. potash imports totaled 1.19 million tons, up 8.6 percent from July 2024. Total shipments between January and July rose to 8.41 million tons, down 10 percent year-over-year. 

Canada is the No. 1 origin of potassium imports for the U.S. this year, accounting for nearly 90 percent of total shipments. Russia nearly accounts for the remaining 10 percent. 

Exports totaled 506,520 tons in July, up 44 percent from July 2024. Year-to-date shipments rose to 2.98 million tons, down 6 percent from a year ago. 

Global Highlights

• China exported 570,000 metric tons (MT) of fertilizer in August, up from just 70,000 MT the previous month. Year-to-date shipments reached 640,000 MT for the first eight months, and are more than triple the volumes from the same period last year. This month, China raised its urea export quota to 4 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025, up 700,000 MT from the previous quota. China only exported about 260,000 MT of urea in 2024, following heavy restrictions on fertilizer exports to ensure domestic supplies. 

• Russian fertilizer exports to China and India are expected to hit a record this year, according to the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers. Russia has already shipped about 2.5 MMT of fertilizer to India, which could hit 5 MMT by the end of the year. 
• India reportedly secured its latest urea tender of around 2.5 MMT, the largest tonnage for a single tender in at least the past five years. Prices for the tender dropped 12 percent from August after 5.6 MMT of urea were offered by suppliers.
• President Donald Trump has been threatening additional sanctions on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Despite previous restrictions imposed early on in the war, Russia remains a large supplier of fertilizer for the U.S. Global prices could continue to experience upward pressure if trade flows are disrupted. 

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