U.S. wholesale and retail ammonia prices continued to push higher this month despite cooling in other markets. Firming international prices and a strong domestic market ahead of fall application have been a major driver of current strength.

Retail anhydrous ammonia prices in Iowa averaged $822.43 per ton as of Oct. 3, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service bi-weekly report. Prices were $32 higher than the previous reporting period and the highest since December 2023.

“We just have to wait a few more weeks and ammonia will be running,” a regional contact told Bloomberg Green Markets. “Ammonia inventory in the Mid-west is tighter than most realize.”

Consequently, retail values could continue to strengthen through the winter before heading for their typical seasonal lull next spring. 

The latest Census data released for July shows that U.S. anhydrous ammonia imports are running 15 percent behind last year. Meanwhile, exports are up 32 percent for the first seven months of 2025. U.S. ammonia imports have declined substantially over the past decade. However, the country remains a net importer due to record domestic consumption. 

Trade data for August has been delayed due to the government shutdown.

Meanwhile, stronger corn plantings in Brazil have been increasing the country’s nitrogen demand. 

Brazil’s ammonia imports have been running 8 percent above last year due to higher supplies from Trinidad and Tobago, which have accounted for 73 percent of total imports, according to Trade Data Monitor. Additionally, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia continue to export ammonia to Brazil.

Wholesale phosphate prices have eased recently, though retail prices continued to move higher in October. Iowa retail monoammonium phosphate prices strengthened to an average of $911.13 per ton, up $23 from the previous reporting period.

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