U.S. fertilizer availability could see some reprieve after the Trump administration announced reduced tariffs on some commodities.

The fact sheet released by the administration last week says certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States. That exclusion extended to fertilizers.

Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, says that while the reduced tariffs could help, the move does not offer a large fix on the retail level.

“It helped remove a barrier. It made it a little easier to make the decisions, but ultimately speaking, it’s going to be a small move. It’s not going to be massive.”

On the retail level, Iowa anhydrous ammonia prices tracked by the USDA rose to an average of $856 per ton earlier this month, the highest since July 2023. MAP fertilizers averaged $917 per ton, the highest since January 2023.

Linville says global factors have been impacting U.S. prices. Eyes are still on China’s urea exports after a deadline expired last month for opening the export pipeline. However, Linville says more tonnage could still reach the global market.

“However, last week, the word is that China will allow 600,000 tons to be exported above and beyond the Oct. 15 date,” he says. “And the rumor mill is they could actually double that – they could jump it up to 1.2 million if they start looking through domestic supplies and prices, and they come to the conclusion that, ‘Yeah, we can let these tons be exported and we’ll be okay.’”

While more exportable supplies could help alleviate high prices, India’s latest urea tender is expected to be bullish for the global market.

The country recently issued a tender to buy 2.5 million tons of urea, which was much higher than the 1.5 million tons anticipated by analysts. Linville says that scenario could shape out to be a bullish event.
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