Retail fertilizer prices pulled back slightly in the Midwest over the past couple of weeks. Anhydrous ammonia fertilizer in Iowa averaged $855 per ton by mid-December, according to data released by the USDA bi-weekly. Prices were about $12 lower than the previous reporting period. Meanwhile, MAP was $14.75 lower at an average of $899.75.

Anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois rose $4 from the previous report to an average of $482.91. Meanwhile, DAP was $14.45 lower at $870 per ton. Urea was $5 lower at $607 per ton.

Wholesale DAP and MAP prices have been correcting lower since August. Gulf NOLA DAP prices are down 22 percent since the Aug. 8 peak. Meanwhile, Gulf urea prices are trading back at their summer lows.

Trump threatens potash imports
This week, President Donald Trump threatened to impose severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports to spur more domestic production. However, tariffs could increase prices on one of the most affordable fertilizers available to U.S. farmers. Canada accounts for about 88 to 90 percent of U.S. potassium fertilizer imports. Russia accounts for about the other 10 percent of imports.

U.S. Fertilizer Trade
The U.S. Census Bureau released its latest fertilizer trade data through September. The October data, which was originally supposed to be released earlier this month before the government shutdown, has yet to be rescheduled.

The most recent data continued to show below-average phosphate imports through September, with year-to-date shipments totaling 1.08 million tons, down 53 percent year-over-year. Anhydrous ammonia imports are running 6 percent behind last year, while UAN is down 6.6 percent. Urea imports are running ahead of a year ago, sitting 8.6 percent higher.

China fertilizer export woes
Chinese fertilizer groups are urging domestic producers to halt exports of phosphate fertilizers to ensure domestic supplies and lower prices ahead of the spring planting season. Bloomberg reported that the groups urged a suspension until August. China has been restricting exports of phosphate fertilizers since 2021 to prioritize domestic supply.

Meanwhile, Chinese urea exports could exceed 6 million metric tons next year, which would be the highest since 2016. Urea shipments had rebounded between July and October, as higher domestic supplies allowed producers to send products to the global market.

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