Grains and oilseeds are steady to lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar gapped open lower overnight and hit the lowest since early September. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher and holding near their all-time highs.

CORN
Corn futures received a late week rally on Friday that helped prices gain 5.75 cents on the week. Much of the gains were led by the wheat complex from technical short-covering, as extreme cold threatens dormant winter wheat.

Corn futures were able to climb back above the old support level at $5.25 ½ on Friday and held above the level despite some losses overnight.

U.S. corn demand remains at the forefront of bullish news. Export sales during the week ending Jan. 15 surged to 4.01 MMT, the largest for any week on record aside from weeks when China was buying.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that Brazil’s Safrinah corn planting reached 4.7 percent complete last week, compared to 2.2 percent the same week last year. Meanwhile, the summer corn harvest is 5 percent complete, down from 8.6 percent a year ago.

Argentina’s corn crop conditions took a hit last week, with 51 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 64 percent the previous week.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans grinded higher last week, gaining a modest 10 cents to close at $10.67 ¾. Prices fell short of the 100-day moving average during last night’s trade.

The lack of biofuel policy from the EPA has kept plenty of uncertainty in the market. However, the expectation of finalized mandates being released by March helped lift soybean oil futures back to their summer highs.

U.S. soybean export sales rose to a marketing-year high of 2.45 MMT for the week ending Jan. 15. Those sales were led primarily by China, who continued to steadily buy U.S. beans. Confirmed purchases from China reached 10.56 MMT, though Bloomberg reported that sales have reached the 12 MMT commitment.

AgRural reported that Brazil’s summer soybean planting reached 4.9 percent complete last week, compared to 3.9 percent a year ago. The firm raised its 2025/26 production forecast to 181 MMT, up 0.6 million from its December estimate.

Argentina’s soybean conditions continued to slip last week, with 53 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 61 percent the previous week. However, conditions remain better than the previous season despite increasingly dry conditions in central and southern Argentina.

WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures finished strong last week after an 11.50-cent gain. March futures rose to a six week high again overnight amid freeze risks to the dormant U.S. winter crop.

Overnight low temperatures were well below average and dipped into negative territory throughout the Midwest and Plains regions. Snow cover across areas could help limit damage, but the risk was the likely driver of last week’s rally.

The wheat market has been susceptible to some short covering. A move above the 100-day moving average around $5.33 could trigger additional buying.
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