Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower this morning but has been grinding higher for most of the week. Crude oil is higher after Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are steady this morning.
Markets will be closed on Monday for Dr. MLK Jr. Day.
CORN
March corn futures have been mostly consolidative this week following Monday’s washout from the USDA’s WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. Prices have struggled to climb back above $4.25 a bushel, a level that would have been a likely support area. However, the level will likely serve as resistance for the short term.
This week’s trade has brought higher open interest, suggesting traders may be adding short positions following Monday’s downside breakout.
U.S. ethanol production hit a record 1.196 million barrels a day last week, smashing previous records, according to the latest EIA data. Ethanol inventories rose modestly despite the large increase and remained below year-ago levels.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its Brazilian corn production forecast slightly to 138.9 MMT. Output is expected to be 1.5 percent lower than the previous season.
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentinian corn production estimate to 62 MMT, up 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that just 64 percent of the corn crop is in good/excellent condition, compared to 75 percent a week ago.
SOYBEANS
March soybeans have so far defended prices above $10.40 following Monday’s selloff. Soybean oil prices have been the strongest in the complex, with March futures climbing back above 50 cents this week.
Reuters reported that the EPA will likely issue its finalized renewable volume obligations in March. Uncertainty revolving around biofuel policy has lead to volatility trade since the new year, but soybean crushers remained optimistic.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its processing members crushed 225 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 9 percent year-over-year. That was also the second-highest volume for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of the month totaled 1.642 billion pounds, up 33 percent from last year.
Conab lowered its 2025/26 soybean production estimate to 176.1 MMT, down 1 million from the previous estimate due to expectations of lower acreage. Output is still forecast to be 2.7 percent higher than last season.
WHEAT
Like corn, Chicago wheat has been mostly consolidating this week since Monday’s selloff. KC wheat futures have been weaker, though both markets popped up overnight.
Futures are largely bearish, though prices have been able to hold up relatively well follow their bearish report trade.
U.S. wheat export sales have slowed dramatically in recent weeks despite prices remaining near contract lows. Still, total exports and commitments remain above the five-year average. Global competition following Argentina’s record harvest could weigh on U.S. export demand.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.