Tag: Wheat

Grain export sales overperform last week

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed stronger sales last week. For the week ending March 19, U.S. net corn sales rose slightly to 1.22 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn during the week, followed by Colombia and Japan. Net sales of…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed stronger sales last week. For the week ending March 19, U.S. net corn sales rose slightly to 1.22 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn during the week, followed by Colombia and Japan. Net sales of 135,000 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Japan.

Physical shipments fell 4 percent last week to 1.68 MMT, primarily destined for Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 68.88 MMT, up 30 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export sales more than doubled last week to 668,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/26. China was the largest buyer, though Germany, Mexico, and Japan also bought larger volumes. Net sales of 27,000 MT for 2026/27 were reported for unknown destinations and Taiwan.

Exports also jumped 48 percent higher to 1.34 MMT. China was the No. 1 destination, while Germany, Egypt, and Mexico also landed in the top five.

China’s total commitments for the marketing year are sitting at 11.24 MMT (413 million bushels). Commitments to non-China countries are running at a seven-year high due to slow Chinese purchases early in the season. Despite the larger demand outside of China, total commitments are running 18 percent below the previous season at 37.26 MMT.

Soybean meal export sales surged last week to 507,600 MT for 2025/26, hitting the third-highest volume for the marketing year. Net sales of 121,600 MT for 2026/27 were reported for unknown destinations and Mexico. Total exports and commitments continued to operate at a rapid pace, sitting 14 percent above last year and a record pace of at 12.9 MMT.

U.S. wheat export sales rose sharply last week to 397,200 MT for 2025/26. The Philippines was the largest buyer, followed by Taiwan, Mexico, and Haiti. Net sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were relatively strong, with the bulk of sales from South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

Exports were unchanged from last week at 383,500 MT, primarily destined for Mexico, China, and Taiwan. Total exports and commitments pushed higher, reaching 24.25 MMT, up 15 percent year-over-year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Drought Risks Emerging for U.S. Winter Wheat Areas

Below-average snow and rain throughout the fall and winter have left moisture deficits throughout the United States. According to the latest Drought Monitor, 55 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas are experiencing some level of drought conditions. That compared to 34 percent a year ago. Primary growing areas in Kansas have largely avoided the worst…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

Below-average snow and rain throughout the fall and winter have left moisture deficits throughout the United States.

According to the latest Drought Monitor, 55 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas are experiencing some level of drought conditions. That compared to 34 percent a year ago. Primary growing areas in Kansas have largely avoided the worst of the drought.

Winter wheat conditions showed further deterioration in March, according to the latest state crop conditions from the USDA. Forty-six percent of Kansas’ crop was in good/excellent condition as of March 22, down 6 percentage points from the week prior. Just 14 percent of Oklahoma’s crop was in good/excellent condition, down 4 points from the previous week and the lowest since 2018.

Texas’ crop conditions improved slightly, with 16 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, up one point from the previous week.

Drier weather is expected for much of the Plains over the next week. There are chances for above-average precipitation next week, which would be a welcome sight for many areas.

“This could go a long way to pushing back some of the soil moisture issues that we’re dealing with right now,” Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions said in a weekly weather interview.

While the forecasted storms could help alleviate long-term drought issues, the rains need to verify as the timeframe approaches.

“I’ve seen too many times the week 2 forecast be overaggressive on rainfall and under deliver,” he added.

Long-range models suggest persistent drought risks through the spring and into summer. Snodgrass said the position of El Niño this summer will be the primary factor of drought risks for the mid-section of the U.S.

Rainfall throughout the spring will be key for reviving soil moisture. Lackluster totals ahead of the spring could lead to additional weather premium building into the wheat market.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 26, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher after prices rebounded on Wednesday. Stock futures are lower. CORN The most active May corn contract traded 4.50 cents higher on Wednesday to 4.67 ¼, posting the strongest day in a few sessions.…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher after prices rebounded on Wednesday. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
The most active May corn contract traded 4.50 cents higher on Wednesday to 4.67 ¼, posting the strongest day in a few sessions. The contract found support just below $4.60 again before moving higher yesterday.

Sharply higher soybean prices and rising crude helped support corn yesterday. The current uptrend remains intact, with a test of the March highs likely.

Bloomberg should have its pre-report estimates out later today ahead of the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report on Tuesday. It’s becoming more likely that soybeans were able to buy more acres from corn since February.

Input costs are undoubtedly high, with fertilizer and crop ratios showing diminishing affordability for nitrogen use in corn.

U.S. ethanol production jumped 2.1 percent higher last week to an average of 1.116 million barrels a day, holding well above seasonal levels. The estimated corn crushed for ethanol production was about 109.4 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year reached approximately 3.112 billion bushels, reaching 55.6 percent of the USDA’s target.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans caught a late-session bid on Wednesday, boosting May futures 16.75 cents higher to close at $11.71 ¾. That was the strongest daily gain since March 6.

Prices are currently testing resistance at the November high around $11.78. Clearing that level could encourage bulls ahead of key biofuel policy announcements.

News that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi is back on helped soybean prices surge late in the session on Wednesday. Originally, the meeting had been delayed due to the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

The chokehold on global energy flows could add leverage for trade talks and China’s lackluster purchases of U.S. soybeans. China is confirmed to have only about 10 MMT of U.S. soybean commitments on the books for the current marketing year.

WHEAT
KC wheat led the wheat complex higher on Wednesday after gaining 13.75 cents to close at $6.17 ¾. Chicago wheat posted similar gains of 7.75 cents but found resistance around $6 a bushel.

Chicago futures successfully held support around a breakout area so far this week. Wheat technicals could become more positive as weather continues to build a story for the wheat market.

Hard red winter wheat traded at its highest premium to Chicago in about a year, likely due to production concerns in the HRW wheat belt. Crop conditions have deteriorated in the past month due to growing moisture deficits.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US soybean export inspections rise counterseasonally, corn inspections strong

The latest USDA Grain Export Inspections report showed corn inspections continued to operate above year-ago levels, while soybean movements trended higher. During the week ending March 19, corn inspections totaled 1.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 2 percent from the previous week and nearly 10 percent higher than the same week last year. Volumes remained…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 23, 2026

The latest USDA Grain Export Inspections report showed corn inspections continued to operate above year-ago levels, while soybean movements trended higher. During the week ending March 19, corn inspections totaled 1.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 2 percent from the previous week and nearly 10 percent higher than the same week last year. Volumes remained above the five-year average but were still lower than inspections observed during the 2020/21 marketing year.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Colombia, and Spain were also in the top five. Accumulated corn inspections rose to 44.58 MMT, running about 38 percent ahead of the previous season.

U.S. soybean export inspections rose 12.3 percent higher last week to 1.1 MMT. Volumes were also 32 percent higher than the same week last year.

China was the top destination for U.S. soybeans during the week, accounting for about half of the volumes. Egypt was also a larger destination for the week. U.S. soybean shipments typically enter their seasonal lull moving through the spring months. However, shipments rose counterseasonally the past couple of weeks due to stronger exports to China.

In response, total soybean shipments have been recovering compared to year-ago levels, sitting 27 percent below last season at 29.18 MMT. That is still the slowest pace since the 2018/19 marketing year.

During the week ending March 19, U.S. wheat export inspections jumped 33 percent higher to 458,400 MT. Volumes were 5.5 percent lower than the same week last year despite the large weekly increase. However, SRW wheat and durum wheat volumes were above last year’s levels.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat during the week. China was the second-largest destination, followed by Taiwan and Kenya. Total wheat inspections for the season are running 18 percent ahead of the previous year at 19.93 MMT. Inspections are also running at a five-year high, as cheaper prices spurred higher demand.

U.S. sorghum inspections rose sharply last week to 182,200 MT. All of the volumes were inspected for shipment to China. Year-to-date shipments are running 72 percent ahead of last season at 2.69 MMT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher but has been swinging amid recent comments from President Trump regarding a potential pathway to end the war with Iran. Stock futures also surged on the news and are recovering from mulit-month lows. CORN Corn…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher but has been swinging amid recent comments from President Trump regarding a potential pathway to end the war with Iran. Stock futures also surged on the news and are recovering from mulit-month lows.

CORN
Corn futures largely recovered last week after Monday’s sharp decline. Prices have been largely rangebound since surging near $5 a bushel on the May contract earlier this month.

Futures retested those highs overnight before talks of a potential end to the war led to a reversal in the grain markets early this morning.

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 102,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that the country’s winter corn planting reached 97 percent complete as of last week. That compared to 100 percent a year ago.

Reuters reported that Argentina is shipping grains out at a strong pace amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Corn sales have been booming to help absorb one of the country’s largest harvests, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange.

SOYBEANS
Monday’s sharp selloff kept soybean futures under pressure last week. The May contract finished 64 cents lower.

Fear of the delayed meeting between Trump and Xi drew skepticism over future soybean purchases from China.

China decided to ease rules on soybean imports from Brazil. Chinese authorities acknowledged that it is not possible to attest to the absolute absence of weed seeds in soybeans.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said it expects China’s soybean imports to total 108 MMt for the 2026/27 marketing year, up 2 MMT from the previous season. The increase reflects “moderate growth in demand for soybean meal by China’s feed industry.”

Private exporters reported the flash sale of 161,120 MT of soybean sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 68 percent complete as of last week. Progress was tracking about 12 percent behind last year’s pace.

WHEAT
Wheat futures have been establishing a trading range since reversing from multi-month highs earlier this month. Still, May Chicago wheat traded 18.50 cents lower last week.

Volatility has been picking since the war with Iran began. The trend has been bullish, though some of that momentum slowed with last week’s trade.

Little precipitation is expected for the Plains over the next week, which is not good for winter wheat, as drought covers about 55 percent of winter wheat areas in the U.S.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales dipped in the week ending March 12

U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales dipped last week, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 12, corn sales dipped 22.7 percent to 1.17 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Japan and Spain. Total net sales of 12,000…

Written by

MaryAnne Knight

·

March 19, 2026

U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat export sales dipped last week, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 12, corn sales dipped 22.7 percent to 1.17 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Japan and Spain. Total net sales of 12,000 metric tons (MT) for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Physical shipments were up 4 percent from the previous week at 1.75 MMT. Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Venezuela, Spain, and South Korea rounded out the top five. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 67.697 MMT, up 30 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export sales of 298,200 MT for 2025/26 were down 35 percent from the previous week. China was the top buyer for the week. Mexico and unknown buyers were the next top destinations. Net sales of 6,600 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Japan and South Korea.

Weekly soybean exports fell nine percent from the previous week to 906,500 MT. About 60 percent of the shipments went to China. Egypt and Mexico also landed in the top five destinations. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 36.796 MMT, 19 percent lower than a year ago.

U.S. wheat export sales were down 58 percent to 189,900 MT for 2025/26 from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer for the week, followed by the Philippines and South Korea. Net sales of 212,100 MT for 2026/27 were primarily for the Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, unknown destinations, and Jamaica.

Exports were down 11 percent for the week at 383,100 MT. Mexico was the top destination, followed by the Philippines, Bangladesh, South Korea, and the Dominican Republic. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 23.9 MMT, sitting 15 percent higher than a year ago.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn and soybean inspections rebound, wheat dips

U.S. corn export inspections increased after recent declines, yet remained below year-ago levels, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. During the week ending March 12, corn inspections totaled 1.66 million metric tons (MMT), up 9.3 percent from the previous week. Volumes were 2 percent lower than the same week last year.…

Written by

MaryAnne Knight

·

March 16, 2026

U.S. corn export inspections increased after recent declines, yet remained below year-ago levels, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. During the week ending March 12, corn inspections totaled 1.66 million metric tons (MMT), up 9.3 percent from the previous week. Volumes were 2 percent lower than the same week last year.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Colombia, Spain, and South Korea were also in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year reached 42.87 MMT, up 39 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export inspections also increased 9.9 percent last week to 966,100 metric tons (MT). Volumes were up 46.9 percent compared to the same week last year.

China was the top destination, accounting for 56.5 percent of the volumes, followed by Egypt, Mexico, and Indonesia. Year-to-date inspections for the marketing year rose to 28.1 MMT, down 28 percent from the previous season.

For the week ending March 5, wheat export inspections dropped 31 percent to 343,000 MT. Volumes were also about 31 percent lower than the same week last year.

Mexico came in as the top destination for the week. The Phillipines, Bangladesh, South Korea and the Dominican Republic rounded out the top five. Accumulated inspections for the season are running 19 percent ahead of a year ago at 19.47 MMT.

Sorghum inspections softened last week to 127,600 MT, though movements remained sharply higher than a year ago. Year-to-date inspections rose to 2.504 MMT, running 61.2 percent ahead of the previous season.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soybean, wheat export sales recover, corn dips

U.S. corn export sales dipped last week, while soybean and wheat sales recovered, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 5, corn sales dipped 26 percent last week to 1.50 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and South…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 12, 2026

U.S. corn export sales dipped last week, while soybean and wheat sales recovered, according to the USDA’s weekly export sales report. During the week ending March 5, corn sales dipped 26 percent last week to 1.50 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and South Korea. Total net sales of 500 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Physical shipments were down 1 percent from the previous week at 1.68 MMT. Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Colombia, and South Korea also landed in the top five. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 66.51 MMT, up 32 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export sales jumped 19 percent last week to 456,700 MT for 2025/26. Indonesia was the top buyer for the week, surpassing China. Mexico and Egypt were the next top destinations. Total net sales of 9,500 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Weekly soybean exports fell one percent from the previous week to 995,300 metric tons (MT). About half of the shipments went to China.

China’s total commitments for the marketing year are sitting at 10.9 MMT, down 49 percent from the previous year and well below the five-year average. Commitments to non-China countries are running at a seven-year high due to slow Chinese purchases early in the season. Despite large demand outside of China, total commitments are running 19 percent lower than a year ago at 36.49 MMT.

U.S. wheat export sales jumped 49 percent higher last week to 455,400 MT for 2025/26. Mexico was the top buyer for the week, followed by China, and Japan. Net sales of 40,400 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Honduras, Colombia, and Nicaragua.

Exports were also 24 percent higher for the week at 432,000 MT. China was the top destination, followed by Mexico and Thailand. China has been appearing in export reports recently. The wheat shipments contained mostly white wheat.

Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 23.66 MMT, sitting 11 percent higher than a year ago. Increased demand for HRW wheat has largely led the increase this season.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 12, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher again on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil futures shot up again overnight amid ongoing attacks on tankers by Iran. Stock futures are pushing lower again. CORN Nearby May corn futures jumped 8 cents higher yesterday to $4.60 ¼. A bushel. Prices met some…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 12, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher again on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady. Crude oil futures shot up again overnight amid ongoing attacks on tankers by Iran. Stock futures are pushing lower again.

CORN
Nearby May corn futures jumped 8 cents higher yesterday to $4.60 ¼. A bushel. Prices met some resistance before the close but were able to clear the level in the overnight trade.

Another run-up in crude oil continued to support the grain markets amid ongoing attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East.

U.S. ethanol production rose 2.8 percent last week to an average of 1.126 million barrels a day. The estimated corn crushed for ethanol was about 110.3 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year rose to approximately 2.896 billion bushels, reaching about 52 percent of the USDA’s target.

SOYBEANS
The gap open higher in soybean futures held up during yesterday’s session after closing 12.25 cents higher at $12.14. Prices are testing Monday’s highs after the key market reversal failed to hold pressure on the soybean complex.

A pullback could find support near the $11.80 level after holding the breakout level.

There were reports that the EPA’s biofuel announcement could be more supportive for production and limit non-north American feedstock use than previously expected.

Reuters reported that Cargill suspended soybean exports from Brazil to China due to stricter phytosanitary inspections. The government introduced tougher inspections procedures for shipments to China, which is halting exports.

Brazilian supplies are likely piling up at ports as harvest progresses.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures rose a steady 3.75 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.94 ¾. HRW wheat futures climbed 4.75 cents to $6.13 ½. Prices were higher in the session but met resistance near $6.24. That level proved to be tougher overnight.

Prices may remain bullish until the Iran situation stabilizes. Market fundamentals are largely bearish outside of supply disruptions.

Winter wheat areas are expected to receive drier than average weather over the next week. Recent rainfall helped improve drought conditions slightly, with 55 percent of winter wheat areas experiencing some level of drought. That still compared to just 27 percent of areas a year ago.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 11, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn traded just 1.50 cents lower to $4.52 ¼ on Tuesday. However, the modest close came after prices rebounded from being 8.50 cents lower earlier in the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 11, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are sharply higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
May corn traded just 1.50 cents lower to $4.52 ¼ on Tuesday. However, the modest close came after prices rebounded from being 8.50 cents lower earlier in the session. Futures were able to hold above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

Volatility in the crude oil market has so far supported grains this week despite Monday’s key reversal.

To no surprise, the USDA left its U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged in this month’s WASDE report. Ending stocks for 2025/26 were steady at 2.127 billion bushels. The current stocks-to-use ratio is sitting at about 13 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 season.

More focus will be on the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. Eyes are on corn disappearance and the possibility of USDA lowering feed and residual usage, which is currently forecasted at a record.

SOYBEANS
May soybeans traded a modest 5.50 cents higher to close at $12.01 ¾ on Tuesday. Like corn, prices rebounded from their intraday lows.

Soybean oil continued to lead the soybean complex higher overnight. Crude oil and heating oil continue to be in the driver’s seat of the oilseeds rally. Fundamentals have been pushed aside by geopolitical risks the past couple of weeks.

Bunge said the recent spike in oilseed prices has spurred additional farmer selling in North and South America. The crop giant said it’s positioned to adapt to the recent turmoil by shifting which ports it’s moving products through.

Monthly customs data showed that China’s soybean imports for the first two months of 2026 are down 7.8 percent year-over-year and the slowest since 2019.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat was the weakest among the grains and oilseeds on Tuesday after closing 12.25 cents lower at $5.91. Prices had gapped open lower during the overnight session and continued to feel pressure from Monday’s key reversal.

Prices were able to rebound again last night, with the market retracing yesterday’s losses and climbing back above $6.

The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged in yesterday’s WASDE report. Ending stocks were steady at 931 million bushels, up 9.4 percent year-over-year and the largest since the 2019/20 season. Global ending stocks are at a five-year high.

India’s agriculture ministry said the country’s wheat production is expected to hit a record 120.2 MMT, up from last season’s 118 MMT.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA keeps domestic grain stocks steady in March WASDE

The USDA’s March WASDE report broadly lived up to expectations of little to no change to the U.S. and global balance sheets. The war in Iran is likely at the forefront of market trade, as grains had little reaction to the latest estimates. Market participants are likely looking ahead to the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 10, 2026

The USDA’s March WASDE report broadly lived up to expectations of little to no change to the U.S. and global balance sheets. The war in Iran is likely at the forefront of market trade, as grains had little reaction to the latest estimates.

Market participants are likely looking ahead to the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports at the end of the month.

CORN
The U.S. corn balance sheet was left unchanged for the month. The 2025/26 carryout is forecast at 2.127 billion pounds, the highest since the 2018/19 season.

Future WASDE reports may highlight demand adjustments. As previously noted, exports are still running ahead of the current forecast, while ethanol use is running slightly behind.

The USDA raised its Brazilian corn production forecast to 132 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The increase was due to higher expected area for the first-season corn crop. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn production forecast was lowered to 52 MMT, down 1 MMT. The agency cited dryness throughout February as the reason for lower yields.

Global corn ending stocks were raised to 292.8 MMT, up 3.8 MMT from the previous estimate. The increase was due to higher stocks in Brazil, Ukraine, and India.

SOYEANS
U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from the previous month at 350 million bushels.

U.S. soybean imports were raised by 5 million bushels due to higher imports observed on the East Coast. That was offset by a 5 million-bushel increase in crush demand.

Despite the increase in crush, soybean oil production was lowered by 20 million pounds due to lower extraction rates.

Soybean oil used for biofuel production was lowered by 800 million pounds based on relatively lower usage than initially forecasted. That was mostly offset by a 750 million pound increase in food, feed, and other use.

The USDA lowered Argentina’s soybean production forecast by 500,000 metric tons (MT) to 48 million. The reduction was due to lower yield expectations from recent dryness. Global ending stocks were reduced by 0.2 MMT due to lower supplies for India and Ukraine.

WHEAT
The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged for the month, with 2025/26 ending stocks forecast at 931 million bushels. The carryout is forecast to be 9 percent higher than the previous season and the largest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

Global wheat ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 MMT to 277 million but remained at a five-year high. Argentina’s exports were raised by 1.5 MMT to a record 19.5 million, as the country’s wheat prices remain the lowest among major exporters.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – March 10, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower following yesterday’s key market reversal. Stock futures are lower. CORN Corn futures traded sharply lower on Monday after posting a huge key market reversal. The May contract reached as high as $4.76 before closing…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 10, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower following yesterday’s key market reversal. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
Corn futures traded sharply lower on Monday after posting a huge key market reversal. The May contract reached as high as $4.76 before closing 6.75 cents lower on the day at $4.53 ¾.

Pressure continued overnight, though prices rebounded from their lows after selling dried up above the 100-day moving average.

Volatility in the crude oil market will likely influence the grain trade. President Trump said he was open to speaking with Iran, though the president has been vocal about Iran agreeing to “unconditional surrender.”

The USDA will release its WASDE report later today. Small adjustments are expected for the U.S. balance sheet. An emphasis on relatively large ending stocks could continue to pressure the old crop market.

The current stocks-to-use ratio is sitting at about 13 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 season.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans also posted a key reversal on Monday after trading 33 cents higher to as high as $12.33 before closing 4.50 cents lower at $11.76 ¼.

Like corn, prices underwent additional pressure overnight before bouncing back and trading slightly above yesterday’s close ahead of the morning session.

U.S. soybean export inspections were higher year-over-year for a second week. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year remain about 30 percent below the previous season as of March 5.

Today’s WASDE report could leave the U.S. soybean balance sheet unchanged this month. Soybean exports need to pick up in order to meet the USDA’s target, but the agency may hold off on lowering the forecast.

The current soybean stocks-to-use ratio has been in neutral territory for most of the season. That has left speculation over Chinese soybean purchases and biofuel demand as the main driver of price action this winter.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat topped $6.41 ¾ a bushel early on Monday before reversing lower and closing 13.50 cents lower at $6.03 ¼. Prices fought back to hold above the $6 handle overnight after an initial move lower.

Last week’s successful test of the 200-day moving average is a positive for the market. Yesterday’s high may have marked the top end of a potential trading range.

Again, no major adjustments are expected for the U.S. wheat balance sheet in today’s report. No changes are expected for global ending stocks.

Yesterday’s export inspections data showed improvement for wheat movements. Year-to-date inspections are running about 20 percent ahead of the previous season.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.