Tag: Soybeans

Morning Grain Comments – January 27, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following losses from the previous session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight after falling to the lowest since early September to start the week. Crude oil is sharply higher and pushing to the upper end of its range. Stock futures are mixed. CORN Corn futures…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 27, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following losses from the previous session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight after falling to the lowest since early September to start the week. Crude oil is sharply higher and pushing to the upper end of its range. Stock futures are mixed.

CORN
Corn futures pulled back from their recent highs on Monday, as the market became more cautious following Friday’s rally. March corn traded 2.25 cents lower to close at $4.28 ¼, holding above the old support level around $4.25.

The market could begin to establish a trading range at current levels, with Monday’s high serving as the top end of that range.

President Trump is speaking in Iowa today and is expected to kick off support for the midterm elections in November. While his speech is expected to focus on the economy, Trump may mention biofuel policy, which has yet to be finalized by the EPA, as well as the Treasury Department’s 45Z rule.

The USDA confirmed on Tuesday that private exporters sold 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. Additionally, 306,000 MT of sorghum sales were reported for unknown buyers, likely China.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans experienced a technically bearish day on Monday. March futures traded nearly 10 cents higher before reversing and closing 6 cents lower at $10.61 ¾.

Farmers selling grain likely added some downward pressure as prices approached technical resistance. Slipping back below the October breakout last month could make it more difficult for futures to rally.

The ongoing soybean harvest in Brazil will likely keep a lid on prices for the short term. Yields are expected to be average this season. However, the monster production estimates continue to be driven by record plantings in the country.

Chinese importers booked at least 25 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil for March and April delivery. Meanwhile, state-owned companies are refraining from buying additional U.S. tons after reportedly fulfilling the 12 MMT commitment.

WHEAT
Wheat futures posted a strong reversal day, with the March Chicago contract traded nearly 11 cents lower than their high for the day. Prices found resistance at the 100-day moving average, which will likely serve as a technical level for the near term.

Concern over the recent cold blast seemed to have cooled after initially spooking short positions out of the market late last week.

Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions noted in our weekly Farmer Forecast interview that a large portion of the U.S. could have plenty of access to cold air moving through February. That is expected to bring drier-than-average conditions throughout the month.

Russia’s agriculture minister said the country exported 41 MMT of wheat in 2025, with much of the grain going to Africa and the Middle East. Russia plans to continue boosting grain production over the next few years, which could expand its market share in global exports.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Grain export inspections steady last week

U.S. grain export inspections were relatively stable last week, according to the latest USDA data released on Monday. Corn movements rose about 2 percent from the previous week to 1.51 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were about 80 percent higher than the same week last year as plenty of bushels continued to be shipped to…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 26, 2026

U.S. grain export inspections were relatively stable last week, according to the latest USDA data released on Monday. Corn movements rose about 2 percent from the previous week to 1.51 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were about 80 percent higher than the same week last year as plenty of bushels continued to be shipped to key buyers.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Spain, Colombia, and Portugal were also in the top five. Accumulated corn shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year rose to 31.44 MMT, up 53.3 percent year-over-year.

Soybean export inspections fell by about 2 percent last week to 1.32 MMT. Volumes were above year-ago levels for a third consecutive week, driven by stronger shipments to China.

China accounted for more than half of the inspections last week. Meanwhile, Mexico and Italy were in the top five. Year-to-date inspections rose to 20.67 MMT, sitting 37.5 percent lower than the previous season. Additionally, inspections are the slowest since the 2013/14 season.

U.S. wheat export inspections fell 12 percent to 351,000 metric tons (MT). Volumes were also 28 percent lower than the same week last year as export sales trickled lower this winter. Seasonally, inspections should begin to rise over the next few months.

South Korea was the largest destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines. Mexico remains the largest importer of U.S. wheat for the current season, followed by the Philippines. Other countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia have seen larger increases in imports compared to the previous year.

Accumulated inspections for the season rose to 16.33 MMT, up 18 percent year-over-year. Inspections are running at the fastest pace since the 2020/21 season.

Sorghum export inspections fell 28 percent from the previous week to 126,000 MT. Volumes remained sharply higher than a year ago despite the week-over-week decline. China was the largest importer of sorghum during the week, though volumes were also reported for Spain and Japan. Year-to-date inspections are now just 5.7 percent below last season at 1.31 MMT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 26, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are steady to lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar gapped open lower overnight and hit the lowest since early September. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher and holding near their all-time highs. CORN Corn futures received a late week rally on Friday that helped prices gain…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 26, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are steady to lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar gapped open lower overnight and hit the lowest since early September. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher and holding near their all-time highs.

CORN
Corn futures received a late week rally on Friday that helped prices gain 5.75 cents on the week. Much of the gains were led by the wheat complex from technical short-covering, as extreme cold threatens dormant winter wheat.

Corn futures were able to climb back above the old support level at $5.25 ½ on Friday and held above the level despite some losses overnight.

U.S. corn demand remains at the forefront of bullish news. Export sales during the week ending Jan. 15 surged to 4.01 MMT, the largest for any week on record aside from weeks when China was buying.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that Brazil’s Safrinah corn planting reached 4.7 percent complete last week, compared to 2.2 percent the same week last year. Meanwhile, the summer corn harvest is 5 percent complete, down from 8.6 percent a year ago.

Argentina’s corn crop conditions took a hit last week, with 51 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 64 percent the previous week.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans grinded higher last week, gaining a modest 10 cents to close at $10.67 ¾. Prices fell short of the 100-day moving average during last night’s trade.

The lack of biofuel policy from the EPA has kept plenty of uncertainty in the market. However, the expectation of finalized mandates being released by March helped lift soybean oil futures back to their summer highs.

U.S. soybean export sales rose to a marketing-year high of 2.45 MMT for the week ending Jan. 15. Those sales were led primarily by China, who continued to steadily buy U.S. beans. Confirmed purchases from China reached 10.56 MMT, though Bloomberg reported that sales have reached the 12 MMT commitment.

AgRural reported that Brazil’s summer soybean planting reached 4.9 percent complete last week, compared to 3.9 percent a year ago. The firm raised its 2025/26 production forecast to 181 MMT, up 0.6 million from its December estimate.

Argentina’s soybean conditions continued to slip last week, with 53 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 61 percent the previous week. However, conditions remain better than the previous season despite increasingly dry conditions in central and southern Argentina.

WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures finished strong last week after an 11.50-cent gain. March futures rose to a six week high again overnight amid freeze risks to the dormant U.S. winter crop.

Overnight low temperatures were well below average and dipped into negative territory throughout the Midwest and Plains regions. Snow cover across areas could help limit damage, but the risk was the likely driver of last week’s rally.

The wheat market has been susceptible to some short covering. A move above the 100-day moving average around $5.33 could trigger additional buying.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
China reaches 12 MMT of US soy purchases

China reportedly purchased 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans from the U.S., meeting the pledge the White House said China committed to late last year. Bloomberg reported that Chinese purchasers met the threshold this week, citing anonymous traders. USDA data has yet to confirm those purchases, but private groups have said in recent weeks…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 20, 2026

China reportedly purchased 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans from the U.S., meeting the pledge the White House said China committed to late last year.

Bloomberg reported that Chinese purchasers met the threshold this week, citing anonymous traders. USDA data has yet to confirm those purchases, but private groups have said in recent weeks that China was well on track to meet the commitment.

A large portion of the buying was done through Sinograin, a state-owned company.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he discussed soybean purchases with Chinese counterparts in a meeting in Davos this week. Bessent told Fox Business that he encouraged China to “buy a little more” than the 25 MMT of soybeans that China has reportedly commitment to purchasing annually through 2028.

Monthly data showed that China imported a record 111.79 MMT of soybeans in 2025, mostly from South America. The deal outlined by the Trump administration is not expected to shift China’s current buying patterns, as Brazil’s soybean harvest brings more supplies online this winter.

According to Barchart, the cost of shipping soybeans from the U.S. to China remains higher than sourcing from Brazil.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Conab lowers Brazil soybean forecast in January

South American weather has been largely favorable for crop production over the past few months. However, conditions are looking more mixed as Brazil’s summer soybean harvest gets underway. Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 176.1 million metric tons (MMT) on Thursday, down 1 million from the prior forecast. Output…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 16, 2026

South American weather has been largely favorable for crop production over the past few months. However, conditions are looking more mixed as Brazil’s summer soybean harvest gets underway.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 176.1 million metric tons (MMT) on Thursday, down 1 million from the prior forecast. Output is still expected to rise 2.7 percent from the previous season and hit a record.

However, the forecast now lands below the USDA’s estimate of 178 MMT after the agency boosted its outlook in the January WASDE report. Conab noted that the recent reduction was due to irregular rainfall impacting areas in Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás.

“Plenty of moisture and no heat stress leads to a positive outlook for soybean production,” said World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that the country’s soybean harvest reached 0.6 percent complete as of last week. Progress was slightly ahead of last year’s pace, with Mato Grosso leading. The weather forecasts support continued progress, with below-average precipitation expected in Mato Grosso over the next week.

Conab kept its corn production estimate relatively stable from last month. Brazil is forecast to harvest 138.9 MMT of corn this season, down 1.5 percent from 2024/25.

Brazil’s winter corn crop planting began last week, with 0.2 percent completed, which is ahead of last year’s pace.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 16, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower this morning but has been grinding higher for most of the week. Crude oil is higher after Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are steady this morning. Markets will be closed on Monday for Dr. MLK Jr. Day. CORN March…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 16, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower this morning but has been grinding higher for most of the week. Crude oil is higher after Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are steady this morning.

Markets will be closed on Monday for Dr. MLK Jr. Day.

CORN
March corn futures have been mostly consolidative this week following Monday’s washout from the USDA’s WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. Prices have struggled to climb back above $4.25 a bushel, a level that would have been a likely support area. However, the level will likely serve as resistance for the short term.

This week’s trade has brought higher open interest, suggesting traders may be adding short positions following Monday’s downside breakout.

U.S. ethanol production hit a record 1.196 million barrels a day last week, smashing previous records, according to the latest EIA data. Ethanol inventories rose modestly despite the large increase and remained below year-ago levels.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its Brazilian corn production forecast slightly to 138.9 MMT. Output is expected to be 1.5 percent lower than the previous season.

The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentinian corn production estimate to 62 MMT, up 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that just 64 percent of the corn crop is in good/excellent condition, compared to 75 percent a week ago.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans have so far defended prices above $10.40 following Monday’s selloff. Soybean oil prices have been the strongest in the complex, with March futures climbing back above 50 cents this week.

Reuters reported that the EPA will likely issue its finalized renewable volume obligations in March. Uncertainty revolving around biofuel policy has lead to volatility trade since the new year, but soybean crushers remained optimistic.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its processing members crushed 225 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 9 percent year-over-year. That was also the second-highest volume for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of the month totaled 1.642 billion pounds, up 33 percent from last year.

Conab lowered its 2025/26 soybean production estimate to 176.1 MMT, down 1 million from the previous estimate due to expectations of lower acreage. Output is still forecast to be 2.7 percent higher than last season.

WHEAT
Like corn, Chicago wheat has been mostly consolidating this week since Monday’s selloff. KC wheat futures have been weaker, though both markets popped up overnight.

Futures are largely bearish, though prices have been able to hold up relatively well follow their bearish report trade.

U.S. wheat export sales have slowed dramatically in recent weeks despite prices remaining near contract lows. Still, total exports and commitments remain above the five-year average. Global competition following Argentina’s record harvest could weigh on U.S. export demand.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soybean crush nears record in December, NOPA says

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its processing members crushed 225 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 9 percent year-over-year. That was also the second-highest volume for any month. Total crushings for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 rose to 866.5 million bushels, rising 11 percent year-over-year. Soybean oil stocks…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 16, 2026

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its processing members crushed 225 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 9 percent year-over-year. That was also the second-highest volume for any month. Total crushings for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 rose to 866.5 million bushels, rising 11 percent year-over-year.

Soybean oil stocks at the end of the month totaled 1.642 billion pounds, up 33 percent from last year. U.S. soybean oil inventories have been building amid declining demand for biomass diesel production.

Soybean oil prices rebounded this past week, with March futures rising back above 50 cents a pound. Most of the move has been driven by speculative short covering, as there appears to be an unwillingness to hold shorts after prices regained ground above the key level.

Reuters reported that the Trump administration will likely issue finalized renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027 by early March. In June, the EPA proposed blending obligations of 5.61 billion gallons for bio-based diesel. However, the actual volumes could range from 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons. Imported feedstocks may also not face a credit penalty that was in the initial proposal.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
China soybean imports hit record in 2025

China imported a record number of soybeans during the 2025 calendar year, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Wednesday. Monthly data showed that the country imported 8.044 million metric tons in December, marking a 1.3 percent year-over-year increase. Year-to-date shipments totaled 111.79 MMT, up 6.5 percent from 2024. China has been…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 14, 2026

China imported a record number of soybeans during the 2025 calendar year, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Wednesday. Monthly data showed that the country imported 8.044 million metric tons in December, marking a 1.3 percent year-over-year increase. Year-to-date shipments totaled 111.79 MMT, up 6.5 percent from 2024.

China has been increasing its imports from South America over the past few years to reduce its reliance on U.S. supplies. Shipments hit records from May through October as the country snapped up supplies from Brazil and Argentina.

No U.S. soybeans were included in the December shipments, according to Reuters. Weekly export data has shown that the U.S. has been shipping soybeans to China, but the first vessel just arrived at China’s ports this week, based on ocean shipping data.

Bloomberg reported that China is auctioning off another 1.13 MMT of soybeans from state reserves, presumably to make room for incoming U.S. imports. Feed producers and soybean crushers have purchased a combined 1.58 MMT of soybeans in three previous state auctions.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA projects principal crop production at record

U.S. principal crop production of corn, soybeans, and wheat for 2025 is forecast at a record 23.25 billion bushels, according to the USDA’s Crop Production report on Monday. Output is estimated to grow by 9 percent from the previous season due to a large increase in corn. U.S. corn production is estimated to have hit…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 13, 2026

U.S. principal crop production of corn, soybeans, and wheat for 2025 is forecast at a record 23.25 billion bushels, according to the USDA’s Crop Production report on Monday. Output is estimated to grow by 9 percent from the previous season due to a large increase in corn.

U.S. corn production is estimated to have hit 17 billion bushels this past year, up 14.1 percent and a record. Total production is expected to have exceeded the prior record set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels.

Higher acreage and yields both drove the increase. Farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn this year, according to the USDA. Most corn-growing states saw high year-over-year plantings. The average yield in the U.S. was estimated at a record high of 186.5 bushels per acre (bpa), 7.2 bushels above the 2024 yield of 179.3 bpa.

Record yields were realized in Minnesota, Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Virginia, and Georgia. Most other states also saw year-over-year increases, though yields were lower than a year ago in Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, and other non-major corn states.

Soybean production in 2025 totaled 4.26 billion bushels, down 3 percent from 2024. Yields were estimated at a record average of 53 bpa, up 2.3 bushels from last season. Harvest acreage offset that increase, with acreage down 7 percent from last year at 80.4 million acres. Texas was the only state with increased planted acreage this year. Midwestern states heavily reduced soybean acreage, while states in the Delta significantly reduced soybean plantings.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Kansas saw record yields this past season. Other states like North Dakota, Illinois, and Michigan saw lower yields on average.

Wheat production, which was already finalized in previous reports, totaled 1.985 billion bushels, up about 0.5 percent from the previous year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
December U.S. corn stockpiles swell to record

The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday showed that Dec. 1 corn inventories totaled 13.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent year-over-year. On-farm bushels totaled 8.70 billion bushels, 14 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.58 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 2024. Total disappearance between September and November was 5.29…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 13, 2026

The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday showed that Dec. 1 corn inventories totaled 13.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent year-over-year. On-farm bushels totaled 8.70 billion bushels, 14 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.58 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 2024.

Total disappearance between September and November was 5.29 billion bushels, up 15.5 percent from a year earlier. Demand has outperformed expectations, but the USDA continued to find additional corn acres, along with surprisingly high yields.

U.S. corn exports are running 61 percent higher than a year ago, while corn ethanol crush is up about half of a percent. But the USDA projecting 2025 corn production at a record 17 billion bushels suggests strong stocks.

Total stocks in Iowa and Illinois saw similar increases during the quarter, with combined stockpiles up 2.8 percent at 4.32 billion bushels. On-farm storage was higher, while off farm bushels were lower compared to a year ago.

Dec. 1 soybean stockpiles totaled 3.30 billion bushels, up 6 percent from December 2024. Soybean stocks held on farms were up 2 percent at 1.58 billion bushels. Off-farm storage was 10 percent higher at 1.71 billion. On-farm storage accounted for 48 percent of total stocks.

Soybean utilization during the quarter was just 1.30 billion bushels, marking a 20 percent decline from the previous year. Crush demand has been strong, but lower exports, particularly to China, were the primary reason for higher stocks.

Crush is expected to be a record this season. However, exports are projected to decline 16 percent from last season despite recent buying from China. The country has bought a confirmed 7.53 MMT of U.S. soybeans for this season, according to USDA data, but volumes are well below historical averages.

All wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 were 1.675 billion bushels, up 7 percent from a year ago. About 446 million bushels were held on farms, down 4 percent from December. However, off-farm storage rose by 11 percent from last year to 1.23 billion bushels.

Disappearance during the quarter totaled 459 million bushels, up 9 percent from a year ago. Wheat experienced the same situation as corn. Demand is up, but so are total supplies. As a whole, U.S. wheat supplies have been trending higher for the past few seasons. We aren’t quite as high as levels seen in 2016/17, but year-over-year data has been painting a picture of a more burdensome outlook.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 13, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following Monday’s bearish trade. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher and pushing above $60 a barrel. Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 trading at a record. CORN March corn traded 24.25 cents lower on Monday to close at $4.21 ½ a bushel. Prices…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 13, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following Monday’s bearish trade. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher and pushing above $60 a barrel. Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 trading at a record.

CORN
March corn traded 24.25 cents lower on Monday to close at $4.21 ½ a bushel. Prices broke below the low end of their trading range and the October low, ultimately wiping out about four months of trading.

Additionally, futures had their largest daily loss since June 2023. New lows could incentivize additional short selling after speculators were fairly neutral heading into the report.

Yesterday’s WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports brought higher-than-anticipated stocks estimates, with Dec. 1 stockpiles at a record 13.28 billion bushels. Demand has outperformed expectations, but the USDA continued to find additional corn acres, along with surprisingly high yields.

World ending stocks also increased by about 14 MMT, largely due to the increases for the U.S. and China.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans traded 13.50 cents lower on Monday to close at $10.49 a bushel following the bearish WASDE and grain stocks reports. Prices are testing the bottom end of their newly established range around $10.40.

While not as bearish as corn, soybeans were surprised by higher-than-expected ending stocks for 2025/26, as well as Dec. 1 grain stocks.

Dec. 1 soybean stocks totaled 3.29 billion bushels, up 6 percent from the previous year. Soybean disappearance during the previous quarter totaled just 1.30 billion bushels, marking a 20 percent decline from the previous year.

Soybean oil was the winner for the day after trading higher despite bearish numbers for principal crops. The USDA lowered soybean oil ending stocks due to lower production and higher exports offsetting reduced biofuel usage.

The USDA confirmed Tuesday that private exporters sold 168,000 MT of soybeans to China, and 152,404 MT of soybeans to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures finished negative on Monday, trading 6 cents lower to $5.11 ¼. Prices had attempted to break above resistance pre-report. Higher-than-expected ending stocks and negative corn and soybean trade ultimately took prices lower into the close.

Yesterday’s reports were less bearish for the wheat complex, with 2025/26 ending stocks being raised to 926 million bushels, compared to an expected decrease. Exports were left unchanged at 900 million bushels, as the USDA exercises caution on the current shipment pace.

Winter wheat plantings totaled 33 million acres this year down, 0.5 percent from last year, according to the USDA’s Winter Wheat/Canola Plantings report. That was due to a 4.8 percent reduction in white wheat acreage offsetting slightly higher SRW and HRW acres.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Grains sharply lower following January data dump

The USDA threw the grain markets for a loop after releasing a slew of market data on Monday. CORN The report numbers surprised the market after the USDA raised its 2025 corn production estimate to more than 17 billion bushels due to a bump in corn yield to 186.5 bushels per acre. Additionally, harvested acreage…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 12, 2026

The USDA threw the grain markets for a loop after releasing a slew of market data on Monday.

CORN
The report numbers surprised the market after the USDA raised its 2025 corn production estimate to more than 17 billion bushels due to a bump in corn yield to 186.5 bushels per acre. Additionally, harvested acreage was raised by 1.3 million acres to 91.3 million. Total production is expected to have exceeded the prior record set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels.

On the demand side, feed and residual usage was raised by 100 million bushels from December to 6.2 billion. It was surprising that the export forecast wasn’t raised instead due to the current pace shown in the latest export sales data.

The 2025/26 corn carryout was raised by nearly 198 million bushels to 2.227 billion, the highest since the 2016/17 marketing year. The stocks-to-use ratio, which measures the relationship between supply and demand, rose to 13.6 percent, the highest since 2019/20.

World corn ending stocks were raised significantly this month due to higher U.S. supplies. The global carryout was raised to 290.9 million metric tons (MMT), up 11.7 million from December. Sharply higher corn stocks were also reported for China.

The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed that Dec. 1 corn stockpiles rose to 13.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent from a year ago and a record. On-farm storage rose 14 percent from a year ago to 8.7 billion bushels. Producers hold a very large percentage of corn relative to total stocks, accounting for 65.5 percent of inventories.

March corn futures were trading higher to begin this morning’s session. Bearish report numbers took prices about 20 cents lower, with prices now testing the Oct. 14 low around $5.25 a bushel.

SOYBEANS
Like corn, the soybean market was surprised by higher-than-expected supply numbers.

The USDA left soybean yields unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, though the agency raised harvested acreage slightly to 80.4 million acres. Total production was raised to 4.262 billion bushels.

Soybean crush demand was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.57 billion. However, soybean exports were lowered by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion. The reduction was due to higher supplies and exports from Brazil.

The 2025/26 carryout was raised to 350 million bushels as a result of lower demand. Stocks are now forecast at the highest since the 2019/20 season after initially being forecast to decline from last season. The stocks-to-use ratio was raised to 8.7 percent.

Soybean oil used for biofuels was lowered by 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion due to lower-than-expected use to date and strong tallow use in recent months.

The USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 MMT, up 3 million from the previous forecast due to better weather conditions for the growing season. Global soybean ending stocks were raised to 224.4 MMT, up 2 million from December. The increase was due to larger stocks for the U.S. and Brazil.

Dec. 1 soybean stocks totaled 3.29 billion bushels, up 6 percent from the previous year. On-farm stocks rose 2 percent to 1.58 billion bushels. Off-farm storage led the increase with a 10 percent boost to 1.71 billion bushels.

Soybean disappearance during the previous quarter totaled just 1.30 billion bushels, marking a 20 percent decline from the previous year.

Soybean futures were trading higher pre-report. However, soybeans followed corn lower, with the March contract losing about 15 cents into the afternoon.

WHEAT
The wheat balance sheet also saw higher-than-expected ending stocks this month, with the 2025/26 carryout raised to 926 million bushels, up 25 million from December. The increase was due to higher beginning stocks and lower domestic demand for wheat.

Export demand was left unchanged this month at 900 million bushels. We expected the forecast to be steady this month due to the slowing pace in export sales in recent weeks.

U.S. ending stocks are expected to be 8 percent higher than a year ago and the highest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

World ending stocks were raised to 278.3 MMT, up 3.4 million from December. The increases were primarily for Russia and Argentina, as the USDA raised their crop production estimates to 89.5 MMT and 27.5 MMT, respectively.

Dec. 1 wheat stocks totaled 1.675 billion bushels, up 7 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks led the increase, marking an 11 percent jump to 1.23 billion bushels. Meanwhile, on-farm storage fell 4 percent to 446 million bushels.

March Chicago wheat futures were down about 8 cents into the afternoon following the report. Prices had been testing resistance levels ahead of the report, but struggled to hold onto gains.

The USDA’s Winter Wheat and Canola seedings report showed that farmers planted 33 million acres of winter wheat this fall, down 0.5 percent from a year ago.

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