South American weather has been largely favorable for crop production over the past few months. However, conditions are looking more mixed as Brazil’s summer soybean harvest gets underway.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 176.1 million metric tons (MMT) on Thursday, down 1 million from the prior forecast. Output is still expected to rise 2.7 percent from the previous season and hit a record.

However, the forecast now lands below the USDA’s estimate of 178 MMT after the agency boosted its outlook in the January WASDE report. Conab noted that the recent reduction was due to irregular rainfall impacting areas in Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás.

“Plenty of moisture and no heat stress leads to a positive outlook for soybean production,” said World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that the country’s soybean harvest reached 0.6 percent complete as of last week. Progress was slightly ahead of last year’s pace, with Mato Grosso leading. The weather forecasts support continued progress, with below-average precipitation expected in Mato Grosso over the next week.

Conab kept its corn production estimate relatively stable from last month. Brazil is forecast to harvest 138.9 MMT of corn this season, down 1.5 percent from 2024/25.

Brazil’s winter corn crop planting began last week, with 0.2 percent completed, which is ahead of last year’s pace.

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