Tag: Soybeans

Morning Grain Comments – November 12, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher and has been consolidating after hitting multi-month highs last week. Crude oil is sharply lower and is weighing on corn. Stock futures are higher for a fourth session.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 12, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher and has been consolidating after hitting multi-month highs last week. Crude oil is sharply lower and is weighing on corn. Stock futures are higher for a fourth session.

CORN

December corn is down 0.50 cents at $4.31 ½. March corn is down 1 cent at $4.46.

Futures posted moderate gains on Tuesday, trading 2.50 cents higher. Price gains were limited by the 200-day moving average, which prices have gravitated toward since prices attempted an upside breakout earlier this month.

Consolidation seems to be the theme for the corn market ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Near-term resistance is around Oct. 30 high of $4.37. Support is around the $4.28 to $4.30 area.

A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the USDA to lower its average corn yield estimate on Friday. However, 2025/26 ending stocks are expected to be higher than the September forecast. We will release a full breakdown of the pre-report surveys later today.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are down 0.50 cents at $11.26 ¾. New crop November soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $11.10 ¼. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is moderately higher.

Futures rejected a move lower on Tuesday’s open, but the lack of follow-buying left January prices just 2.75 cents lower on the day.

Friday’s WASDE report should give the market better fundamental news after radio silence from the USDA over the past month and a half. Pre-report expectations expect a slight increase in 2025/26 ending stocks from the September report.

Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans remained quiet again despite China’s alleged promise to buy 12 MMT of soybeans through the rest of the year. China still has a 13 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, making them more expensive than Brazilian supplies. There has been little incentive for importers to seek U.S. supplies, unless they are buying products under the radar.

WHEAT

March Chicago wheat is down 7.75 cents at $5.44 ¼. KC wheat is down 6 cents at $5.33 ¼. Spring wheat is down 2.25 cents at $5.81 ½.

Chicago futures struggled to trade back above the $5.53 ½ resistance level, as well as the 100-day moving average. Prices could still find support around Friday’s low of $5.41.

Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show higher U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year. The average analyst guess is predicting a 25-million-bushel increase from the September forecast.

Global wheat prices have been weighing on U.S. futures after taking a step back this week in the Black Sea and EU. Global values remain well below U.S. competitors.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon said Russian wheat export prices fell to a new low for the year after hitting the lowest price since August 2024. Wheat supplies are abundant throughout Russia, though exports have been increasing due to lower prices.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Moisture deficits emerging for Brazil crop areas

Below-normal rainfall is raising moisture deficits across central Brazil, especially in Mato Grosso, which produces a quarter of the nation’s soybeans. Prolonged lackluster rainfall could begin to pressure production estimates.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 11, 2025

Moisture deficits are creeping back into major growing regions in Brazil following lackluster rainfall for many areas. Precipitation totals have been below normal for the past two weeks, according to World Ag Weather. Deficits are the largest in Mato Grosso, which supports about 25 percent of the country’s soybean production.

Much of Brazil’s central region could receive below-average rainfall over the next two weeks, said Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions in a weekly weather interview.

“If that area sees another two weeks of lackluster rainfall, you just have to wonder what that might do to the soybean crop that’s new,” he said.

Snodgrass said it’s too early to be worried about production problems, largely because of the country’s ability to make up moisture deficits with a single heavy rain. Historically, rapid acreage expansion offsets yields issues due to strong government support.

Brazil’s soybean planting reached 61 percent complete as of Nov. 6, according to consultancy firm AgRural. Progress compared to the 67 percent planted the same week last year. Progress in the state of Mato Grosso slipped below the five-year average last week after reaching 86 percent complete, according to the state’s Institute of Agricultural Economics.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) will release its updated corn and soybean production forecasts on Thursday. Conab’s first official forecast last month predicts 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 177.6 million metric tons.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 11, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Tuesday following yesterday’s gains. The U.S. Senate passed their budget bill last night after eight Democrats sided with Republicans. The House will have to vote on the bill before it reaches the president’s desk.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 11, 2025

Happy Veteran’s Day! Thank you to those who have served.

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Tuesday following yesterday’s gains. The U.S. Senate passed their budget bill last night after eight Democrats sided with Republicans. The House will have to vote on the bill before it reaches the president’s desk.

CORN

December corn is down 1 cent at $4.28 ¾. March corn is down 1 cent at $4.43 ½.

December futures traded a moderate 2.50 cents higher on Monday and continued to hold within their consolidation range. Prices have been mostly directionless since late October.

The market is gearing up for Friday’s WASDE report. We should have pre-report estimates from Bloomberg out soon.

Meanwhile, another Bloomberg survey predicts that the U.S. corn harvest is 92 percent complete. Snowfall over the weekend likely stalled progress in some areas, though the idea of harvest delays are likely too isolated for the market to care too much.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are down 6.50 cents at $11.23 ½. New crop November soybeans are down 3.25 cents at $11.07 ¼. Soybean oil is higher following yesterday’s gains. Soybean meal is lower.

Futures extended Friday’s gains after rising 13 cents on Monday. Open interest was higher, but volume indicated a relatively light trading day. Prices may still attempt to challenge last week’s 16-month highs, but the market could wait to make another large move after the USDA releases its WASDE report.

Soybean oil prices caught a bid since falling to a four-month low last week. An upside breakout The EPA may not release its biofuel blending mandates until the first quarter of next year, which holds uncertainty over the biofuels industry.

There haven’t been any additional media reports of China buying U.S. soybeans. China could still be buying soybeans under the radar with the lack of USDA reports. But that won’t be confirmed until the government reopens.

Rains have been lackluster in Brazil, with precipitation falling below normal for the past couple of weeks. However, it’s too early to predict a weather scare due to South America’s ability to catch up on moisture with just one heavy rainfall.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.33. KC wheat is down 5.25 cents at $5.21 ¾. Spring wheat is down 0.25 cents at $5.64.

Chicago futures traded 8 cents higher on Monday but fell short of trading above the $5.36 support/resistance level. Prices had traded above it overnight but quickly came under pressure ahead of the morning session.

The March contract is quickly overtaking December. Prices on the March also struggled to trade above old resistance last night.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon said it expects the country to produce 84 MMT of wheat in the upcoming 2026 season, compared to the 2025 estimate of 87.8 MMT. The drop is due to lower wheat plantings.

Global wheat production prospects continue to be bearish so far, though we have a long growing season ahead of us.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Wheat, corn export inspections soften last week

U.S. corn exports remained seasonally strong despite a weekly dip, led by steady demand from Mexico. Soybean shipments improved slightly but stayed well below last year’s pace amid limited Chinese activity, while wheat shipments slowed following a solid start to the export season.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 10, 2025

U.S. corn export inspections softened last week but held at seasonal highs, while soybean movements improved slightly, according to the USDA on Monday. Corn movements totaled 1.43 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Nov. 6. Volumes were down nearly 17 percent from the previous week but was 76 percent higher than the same week last year.

Inspections were at the lower end of market expectations but continued to post an impressive print compared to previous seasons. Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Colombia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan rounded out the top five. Accumulated corn exports for the marketing year rose to 13.73 MMT, up 65.7 percent year-over-year.

Soybean export inspections rose 10 percent from the previous week to 1.09 MMT, though volumes remained 54 percent lower than the same week last year. Movements were a 17-year low for the week amid the absence of shipments to China. Shipments to China may not appear in the inspections report for some time due to recent U.S. purchases set for delivery this winter.

Pakistan was the top destination for U.S. soybeans during the week, followed by Egypt. Year-to-date shipments are running 42 percent below last season at 8.90 MMT, the slowest pace since 2013.

Wheat inspections fell 17 percent from the previous week to 290,500 metric tons. Volumes were also about 18 percent lower than a year ago but aligned with the five-year average.

Mexico was the top destination for the week, followed by the Philippines. U.S. wheat exports officially entered their seasonal lull over the past couple of weeks. But strong exports early in the season put marketing-year-to-date totals well ahead of last year. Accumulated shipments for the season rose to 12.12 MMT, running about 19 percent ahead of last year.

Sorghum export inspections fell sharply from the previous week to 33,200 MT. All of the volumes were destined for Spain. Year-to-date inspections rose to 262,500 MT, down 63 percent from the previous season and the slowest pace since the 2022/23 marketing year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 10, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is moderately higher. Stock futures are sharply higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 10, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is moderately higher. Stock futures are sharply higher.

Lawmakers are making headway on a deal to reopen the U.S. government. Eight Democratic senators are expected to join Republicans in a vote to extend government funding through Jan. 30. If passed, the bill will have to go back to the House before hitting the president’s desk.

CORN

December corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.29. March corn is up 2 cents at $4.44.

December futures traded 4.25 cents lower last week after closing at the lowest level in ten sessions on Friday. Prices failed to clear the $4.35 level following their recent rally to a four-month high.

China’s agriculture ministry said the country will produce a record 300 MMT of corn during the 2025/26 season despite rain disrupting development. Record harvests have been the primary driver of the country’s declining corn imports.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 72 percent of the country’s summer corn planting was complete as of last week. That was on par with progress seen the same week last year.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are 7.50 cents higher at $11.24 ½. New crop November soybeans are up 2.25 cents at $11.02 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is also higher in an effort to reverse Thursday’s losses.

January soybeans recovered some of their losses on Friday following sharp losses the previous session, though prices ended up mostly unchanged on the week.

Despite continued uncertainty over how much soybeans China will actually buy from the U.S, there seems to be optimism due to declining tensions between the two countries.

The EPA announced on Friday that it approved full exemptions for 2 refineries, partial exemptions for 12, and denied 2 refinery exemptions. There still has been no final rule for the 2026 and 2027 blending mandates.

China’s agriculture ministry trimmed its soybean production forecast slightly to 20.9 MMT due to bad weather impacting crops in some areas.

AgRural reported that 61 percent of Brazil’s soybean crop was planted, as of Nov. 6. THat compared to 67 percent last year.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 7.25 cents at $5.35. KC wheat is up 8 cents at $5.27 ¼. Spring wheat is up 6.75 cents at $5.64 ¾.

Futures gave up earlier gains from last week and traded 6.25 cents lower following sharp losses on Thursday and Friday. Prices had traded up to a three-month high before falling short of the 200-day moving average.

The trend is turning less bearish following the recent short-covering rally that started in mid-October. Major hurdles to clear before the overall downtrend since last year would be prices climbing above $6.

Egypt has been securing more wheat from the Black Sea. Bloomberg reported that the country will obtain another 200,000 MT from Russia, 150,000 MT from Bulgaria, and 130,000 MT from Ukraine.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soymeal futures slip this week after strong rally

Soybean meal futures fell 1.4 percent this week, their first weekly loss in a month, after a sharp rally to nine-month highs. Global FOB prices eased, with U.S. values still above South American levels. Traders remain cautious amid uncertainty over China’s U.S. soybean purchases, leaving domestic crush and meal exports to drive demand.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 7, 2025

Soybean meal futures posted their first weekly loss for the first time in about a month following their recent surge to nine-month highs. December prices traded 1.4 percent lower this week amid speculative profit-taking. Before Monday, futures traded higher for 14 consecutive sessions as traders blew out of short positions.

Global soybean meal FOB prices also took a step back this week. U.S. prices continued to trade well above their South American competitors.

Soybean meal prices had been trending lower for most of this year due to strong domestic production. The prospect of China resuming U.S. soybean purchases led to the impressive meal rally due to an expected increase in competition for U.S. beans. Despite companies confirming to media outlets that China has booked U.S. soybean cargoes, future shipments are expected to fall short of previous years.

Without a materialized trade agreement between the U.S. and China, the burden of soybean demand could still land on domestic crushing and soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean crush has been running at a record pace, according to industry data. The National Oilseed Processors Association will release updated crush data for October on Nov. 17.

Argentina’s soybean crushings continued to operate at a record. Crushings totaled 4.13 million metric tons in September, up slightly year-over-year. Total crushings for the calendar year are running 3.3 percent ahead of last year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
China reinstates soy imports from U.S. traders

China lifted suspensions on three U.S. companies, allowing U.S. soybeans to officially reenter Chinese ports starting Nov. 10. China’s October imports hit a record 9.43 MMT, up 17 percent from last year.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 7, 2025

China lifted suspensions on three U.S. companies that would allow American soybeans to officially enter Chinese ports. Bloomberg reported on Friday that China will reinstate soybean export qualifications on Nov. 10 for CHS Inc., Louis Dreyfus Company, and EGT LLC.

China had halted those qualifications in March leading up to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The decision to reinstate the companies follows the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China.

U.S. officials said China would import at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans through the end of 2025. The country will also buy a minimum of 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans annually over the next three years, according to U.S. officials. No formal agreement was signed between the two countries.

China imported 9.428 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans in October, according to Chinese customs data. Imports maintained a record for the month and were 17 percent higher than October 2024. Year-to-date shipments are tracking 6.4 percent higher than a year ago at a record pace of 95.64 MMT.

The growth reflects China’s large appetite for soy products to meet domestic demand.

At least a handful of cargoes of U.S. soybeans had been booked for shipment to China, according to media reports last week. However, the absence of weekly USDA export sales reports leaves the extent of those purchases in question.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 7, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following yesterday’s washout. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil and fuel products are higher. Stock futures are lower again following disappointing economic data from private groups yesterday.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 7, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following yesterday’s washout. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil and fuel products are higher. Stock futures are lower again following disappointing economic data from private groups yesterday.

CORN
December corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.28 ½. March corn is unchanged at $4.43.

The lack of direction this week took December futures 6.50 cents lower on Thursday to $4.28 ¾. Prices are testing support again overnight, as bullish momentum fades. Traders have been switching over to the March contract, as first notice day is less than a month away.

For now, the market remains rangebound ahead of next week’s WASDE report. Brazil’s October corn exports were up 1.5 percent from a year ago at 6.5 MMT. Year-to-date shipments are down 3 percent at 29.8 MMT.

Then Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 36 percent of the Argentina corn planting was complete, up one percent from the previous week. Heavy precipitation in Buenos Aires has been stalling progress. The crops that have been planted look good.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are up 6.50 cents at $11.14. New crop November soybeans are up 2.50 cents at $10.98 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is moderately higher following yesterday’s sharp selloff.

China imported 9.482 MMT of soybeans in October, according to customs data. That was a record level for the month, as China continued to ramp up purchases from South America. Total imports for the calendar year are running 6.4 percent ahead of last year at 95.68 MMT.

China said it will reinstate soybean export qualifications for three U.S. firms starting Nov. 10.

Additionally, Brazil’s trade ministry said the country exported 6.73 MMT of soybeans last month, up 43 percent year-over-year. Year-to-date shipments are 6.8 percent higher than a year ago at 100.6 MMT.

Soybean planting officially started in Argentina following a short delay. Then Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 4.4 percent of the crop was planted as of this week.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 3.75 cents at $5.31 ¾. KC wheat is down 2.50 cents at $5.19 ¾. Spring wheat is up 1.25 cents at $5.58 ¼.

The pause in the recent short-covering was followed by a 19-cent selloff in Chicago wheat futures on Thursday before finding support at the 100-day moving average. Prices fell below their breakout level overnight, which could add additional selling pressure on Friday.

U.S. winter wheat areas experiencing drought dropped to 38 percent this week, compared to 57 percent a year ago. Areas have received better precipitation in recent weeks, though there are some dry pockets across the Plains. Long-range forecasts are mixed on winter precipitation after the crop heads into dormancy.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said the global grains stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise to an eight-year high. Corn is expected to lead the increase, but wheat is also a driver.

Argentina’s wheat harvest continued to move along this week. However, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that there might be some crop damage due to recent rain and hail in limited areas.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 6, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are lower following yesterday’s gains. CORN December corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.33. March corn is down 2 cents at $4.47 ½. Futures continued their status quo of consolidation, with the December…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 6, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are lower following yesterday’s gains.

CORN

December corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.33. March corn is down 2 cents at $4.47 ½.

Futures continued their status quo of consolidation, with the December contract trading 3.75 cents higher on Wednesday but stopped short of last week’s high of $4.37. Prices pulled back early this morning to maintain their trading range around the 200-day moving average.

The EIA’s weekly petroleum report yesterday showed that ethanol production hit a new record last week of an average of 1.123 million barrels a day, surpassing the previous record from this June. Demand remains healthy, though margins are undergoing some pressure.

China has been reportedly buying cargoes of U.S. sorghum. Exporters told Reuters that shipment was sent to China last week.

Drier weather across the Corn Belt over the next week should aid harvest progress for producers still finishing up, as well as fertilizer application.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are down 11.50 cents at $11.22 ¾. New crop November soybeans are down 2.75 cents at $11.08 ¾. Soybean oil is up. Soybean meal is down sharply.

Old crop futures edged out a new 16-month high after rising 12.75 cents higher on Wednesday. The surge continued to come on the back of China lowering retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag exports.

The U.S. dollar coming down this morning is positive, as our soybeans prices will have to decrease relative to Brazil to keep China interested.

Supreme Court arguments started yesterday on the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. However, there is no distinct time of when a final decision will be made.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 8.50 cents at $5.46 ¼. KC wheat is down 8 cents at $5.32. Spring wheat is down 2 cents at $5.54 ¼.

Chicago futures posted a fresh 3-month high on Wednesday after rising 4.50 cents. The gains appeared to be on the back of another day of short-covering of traders exiting short positions.

Reuters reported that China did end up booking two cargoes of U.S. wheat last week following rumors that the country was seeking some U.S. supplies. The idea of China booking U.S. cargoes still doesn’t seem to make much sense, but the additional demand would be welcome.

Adequate weather is reportedly favoring winter wheat establishment in the Black Sea and Europe. U.S. winter wheat continued to lead global prices to the upside this week.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 5, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar continued to push higher overnight and is at a five-month high. Crude oil is lower again. Stock futures are mostly steady ahead of the morning session after reversing overnight losses.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 5, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar continued to push higher overnight and is at a five-month high. Crude oil is lower again. Stock futures are mostly steady ahead of the morning session after reversing overnight losses.

CORN

December corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.31 ¼. March corn is up 0.25 cents at $4.45.

Futures reversed Monday’s gains in turnaround Tuesday, with the December contract losing 2.75 cents yesterday. Prices continued to consolidate this week and held the the $4.30 support area.

The EIA will release the latest ethanol production data for last week. Output remains at seasonal highs, though domestic inventories continued to operate above the five-year average.

China removed tariffs on U.S. corn imports, though weak import demand suggests that China has no reason to start buying U.S. corn for the time being.

Favorable rainfall made its way into parts of Brazil’s summer corn production areas over the past couple of days. Precipitation deficits remain for most of Southern Brazil, where more than a third of the crop is grown.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are up 3.25 cents at $11.24 ¾. New crop November soybeans are up 2.75 cents at $11.05 ¾. Soybean meal is higher following Tuesday’s losses. Soybean oil is moderately higher.

Futures paused their recent rally on Tuesday, with the January contract losing 12.75 cents. Prices traded at the highest since July 2024 this week after breaking above their spring highs. A pullback could get bought if harder details between the U.S. and China’s trade truce guarantee more soybean exports.

China officially announced that it will remove retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. farm products, including soybeans, corn, wheat, and soybeans on Nov. 10. However, soybeans will still face a 13 percent tariff despite the reduction.

Bangladesh soybean processors and meal importers pledged to buy over $1.25 billion of U.S. soybeans and soybean meal over the next 12 months.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 2.25 cents at $5.48. KC wheat is 3 cents lower at $5.33 ½. Spring wheat is down 1.25 cents at $5.56.

The rally in winter wheat futures initially looked to have stalled out early on Tuesday. However, late-session trading brought more buying and sent the December Chicago contract another 6.75 cents higher, closing at $5.50 ¼ a bushel.

Lower open interest for the day suggested additional short-covering as initial sellers continued to get squeezed out of their short positions. Higher prices could be in the cards if additional gains come from outright buying. For now, there seems to be an unwillingness to be short the market.

The strong rally in the grain prices and the U.S. dollar are making grains more expensive than global competitors. That may challenge wheat demand in the near-term, but the lack of USDA data will make it difficult to see if the higher prices impact future sales.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 4, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following yesterday’s broad-based gains. The U.S. dollar continued to push higher and is at the highest level in three months. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are also taking a hit this morning.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 4, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following yesterday’s broad-based gains. The U.S. dollar continued to push higher and is at the highest level in three months. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are also taking a hit this morning.

CORN

December corn is down 4.25 cents at $4.30. March corn is 4 cents lower at $4.42 ¾.

December futures pushed another 2.75 cents higher on Monday and closed above the 200-day moving average. Near-term resistance is around Thursday’s high of $4.37. Corn futures are beginning to establish a more defined uptrend following last week’s higher high.

StoneX Group raised its U.S. corn production estimate to 16.748 billion bushels, up from last month’s estimate of 16.737 billion. That was due to a slight yield increase to 186 bpa, compared to the previous 185.9 bpa.

This month’s WASDE report will have a large focus on yields from the fall harvest season. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects that the U.S. corn harvest reached 85 percent complete this past week.

U.S. corn exports continued to move along at a record pace this season. Total inspections for 2025/26 are 64 percent higher than a year ago.

SOYBEANS

January soybeans are down 17.25 cents at $11.17. New crop November soybeans are down 12.50 cents at $11.01. Soybean meal is pushing lower. Soybean oil is lower following Monday’s rally.

Another surge in soybean futures took old crop January prices 19 cents higher on Monday. Prices are now trading at a 16-month high amid the expectation of future Chinese purchases. Technically, the market is undergoing a substantial short-squeeze in the grain markets, with the China news leading the way.

Reuters reported that Chinese buyers have stepped up soybean purchases from Brazil in recent days despite allegedly buying from the U.S. Traders said buyers have booked 10 more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December, and another 10 for March through July delivery.

StoneX lowered its U.S. soybean production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels, down from the previous 4.326 billion in October. The average yield estimate was lowered to 53.6 bpa, down from 53.9 bpa last month.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 3 cents at $5.46 ½. KC wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.32. Spring wheat is down 0.75 cents at $5.57 ¾.

The wheat market is likely experiencing another short squeeze after Chicago futures traded 9.50 cents higher on Monday. Prices broke above previous resistance levels from the September highs, as well as the 100-day moving average, which contained gains last week.

The high-volume upside breakout helped the market clear several layers of technical resistance yesterday. Yesterday’s news of China potentially buying U.S. wheat is certainly positive, though bulls may need more firepower to once the latest short squeeze cools.

U.S. wheat export inspections rebounded to seasonal highs last week, reaching 350,300 MT. Total inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year are up 20.5 percent at 11.83 MMT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soy oil share in US biofuel output rose in August

U.S. soybean oil use in biomass-based diesel production fell in August, pausing its recovery as the industry awaits delayed EPA blending mandates. Waste feedstock usage also dropped, shifting demand toward domestic soybean oil. December soybean oil futures found support near 48 cents and the lowest level since the EPA’s initial biofuel mandate proposal on June…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 3, 2025

Domestic soybean oil usage in biomass-based diesel production paused its recovery in August as the industry awaits key blending mandates from the Environmental Protection Agency. Soybean oil usage totaled 1.041 billion pounds in August, down 67 million pounds from July, according to data from the Energy Information Administration released on Friday. The decline was largely due to a drop in usage for renewable diesel production.

Notably, waste feedstock usage of used cooking oil (UCO) and beef tallow fell sharply in August to 312 million pounds and 622 million pounds, respectively. Usage declined sharply ahead of the EPA’s announced biofuel blending mandates that are expected to disfavor imported waste products. Consequently, the share of soybean oil usage among other feedstocks rose to the highest since September 2023, as expected policies should favor domestic supplies.

The EPA was initially set to release its finalized renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027 by Nov. 1, 2025. Additionally, it was supposed to finalize a potential reallocation of recent small refinery exemptions (SREs) from previous years by the same period. However, the government shutdown likely delayed a final rule for both.

Soybean oil prices experienced pressure since this summer, with prices wiping out gains seen after the EPA initially proposed strong blending mandates that would heavily favor domestic soybean oil usage. December futures traded at the lowest since June 13 on Monday before rebounding of their lows. The 48-cent level may provide support for prices that could continue to incentivize domestic crush.

Soybean crush margins came under pressure over the past two weeks due to the run-up in soybean prices on news of China returning to U.S. soy. If China truly begins buying volumes that the Trump administration is reporting, there could be a smaller focus on domestic crush.

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