Moisture deficits are creeping back into major growing regions in Brazil following lackluster rainfall for many areas. Precipitation totals have been below normal for the past two weeks, according to World Ag Weather. Deficits are the largest in Mato Grosso, which supports about 25 percent of the country’s soybean production.

Much of Brazil’s central region could receive below-average rainfall over the next two weeks, said Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions in a weekly weather interview. 

“If that area sees another two weeks of lackluster rainfall, you just have to wonder what that might do to the soybean crop that’s new,” he said. 

Snodgrass said it’s too early to be worried about production problems, largely because of the country’s ability to make up moisture deficits with a single heavy rain. Historically, rapid acreage expansion offsets yields issues due to strong government support.

Brazil’s soybean planting reached 61 percent complete as of Nov. 6, according to consultancy firm AgRural. Progress compared to the 67 percent planted the same week last year. Progress in the state of Mato Grosso slipped below the five-year average last week after reaching 86 percent complete, according to the state’s Institute of Agricultural Economics. 

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) will release its updated corn and soybean production forecasts on Thursday. Conab’s first official forecast last month predicts 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 177.6 million metric tons.

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