Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following yesterday’s broad-based gains. The U.S. dollar continued to push higher and is at the highest level in three months. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are also taking a hit this morning.
CORN
December corn is down 4.25 cents at $4.30. March corn is 4 cents lower at $4.42 ¾.
December futures pushed another 2.75 cents higher on Monday and closed above the 200-day moving average. Near-term resistance is around Thursday’s high of $4.37. Corn futures are beginning to establish a more defined uptrend following last week’s higher high.
StoneX Group raised its U.S. corn production estimate to 16.748 billion bushels, up from last month’s estimate of 16.737 billion. That was due to a slight yield increase to 186 bpa, compared to the previous 185.9 bpa.
This month’s WASDE report will have a large focus on yields from the fall harvest season. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects that the U.S. corn harvest reached 85 percent complete this past week.
U.S. corn exports continued to move along at a record pace this season. Total inspections for 2025/26 are 64 percent higher than a year ago.
SOYBEANS
January soybeans are down 17.25 cents at $11.17. New crop November soybeans are down 12.50 cents at $11.01. Soybean meal is pushing lower. Soybean oil is lower following Monday’s rally.
Another surge in soybean futures took old crop January prices 19 cents higher on Monday. Prices are now trading at a 16-month high amid the expectation of future Chinese purchases. Technically, the market is undergoing a substantial short-squeeze in the grain markets, with the China news leading the way.
Reuters reported that Chinese buyers have stepped up soybean purchases from Brazil in recent days despite allegedly buying from the U.S. Traders said buyers have booked 10 more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December, and another 10 for March through July delivery.
StoneX lowered its U.S. soybean production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels, down from the previous 4.326 billion in October. The average yield estimate was lowered to 53.6 bpa, down from 53.9 bpa last month.
WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is up 3 cents at $5.46 ½. KC wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.32. Spring wheat is down 0.75 cents at $5.57 ¾.
The wheat market is likely experiencing another short squeeze after Chicago futures traded 9.50 cents higher on Monday. Prices broke above previous resistance levels from the September highs, as well as the 100-day moving average, which contained gains last week.
The high-volume upside breakout helped the market clear several layers of technical resistance yesterday. Yesterday’s news of China potentially buying U.S. wheat is certainly positive, though bulls may need more firepower to once the latest short squeeze cools.
U.S. wheat export inspections rebounded to seasonal highs last week, reaching 350,300 MT. Total inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year are up 20.5 percent at 11.83 MMT.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.