Tag: Soybeans

Markets eye demand ahead of December WASDE

The USDA will release its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday, with a focus on demand numbers for major crops. The agency will not adjust crop production estimates, leaving “final” adjustments for the January crop report. Steady corn balance sheet Not much change is expected for the corn balance sheet…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 8, 2025

The USDA will release its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday, with a focus on demand numbers for major crops. The agency will not adjust crop production estimates, leaving “final” adjustments for the January crop report.

Steady corn balance sheet
Not much change is expected for the corn balance sheet this month, following the USDA’s increase in the 2025/26 carryover during the November report. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects ending stocks to be lowered by 8 million bushels to a still lofty 2.146 billion.

U.S. corn export demand remains strong, as indicated by the latest sales data and the weekly export inspections report. The agency currently forecasts exports at a record, driven by strong growth among key buyers.

Additionally, U.S. ethanol production has kept its record pace for most of this season. The USDA forecasts corn used for ethanol production to hit 5.6 billion bushels during the current season. If realized, that would match the previous record set at 5.605 billion during the 2017/18 season. Strong demand for U.S. ethanol through exports continues to incentivize domestic corn crush. The caveat is whether production efficiencies outpace the need for more bushels, which was prominent in the 2024/25 marketing year.

World corn ending stocks for the 2025/26 crop year are expected to decline slightly to 281.1 million metric tons (MMT).

Keeping an eye on soybean exports
The USDA has maintained a relatively tight U.S. soybean balance sheet as strong crush demand has helped offset declining exports. Still, the focus remains on the export numbers and how China’s return is expected to impact overall demand.

The Bloomberg survey expects the USDA to raise the ending stocks forecast by 16 million bushels to 306 million. Last month, the agency lowered the 2025/26 soybean carryout to 290 million bushels, the lowest in three years.

Brazil’s soybean planting season is rounding the final stretch. So far, there have been few signs of crop stress despite below-average precipitation throughout November. The country’s production forecast is likely to remain unchanged, given the limited production news. The global ending stocks forecast is expected to increase slightly to 122.7 MMT but remain below last season’s record of 123.3 MMT.

Global wheat supplies in focus
U.S. wheat futures have drifted lower since initial volatility following the November WASDE report. The wheat market has been challenged by bearish U.S. and global balance sheets.

The highlight of the market has been exports. Wheat exports are forecast at 900 million bushels, the highest since the 2020/21 marketing year. The latest export sales and shipment data indicate that the current pace is significantly ahead of last year and the five-year average, suggesting that the USDA may raise its forecast. Still, a bumper U.S. harvest the past two seasons overshadowed stronger exports.

The pre-report trade does expect the U.S. wheat ending stocks forecast to decline slightly from November to 894 million bushels.

The USDA raised its global wheat production forecast significantly last month. The estimate could receive another bump this week after Statistics Canada boosted the country’s production estimate to a record. The Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects global wheat ending stocks to increase to 272.8 MMT, up 1.4 MMT from November.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 8, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures continued to grind higher, with the S&P 500 nearing contract highs. CORN March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.46 ½. New crop December corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.64…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 8, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures continued to grind higher, with the S&P 500 nearing contract highs.

CORN
March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.46 ½. New crop December corn is up 0.50 cents at $4.64 ¾.

Futures continued their consolidative pattern after March futures traded a modest 3 cents lower last week.

The latest export sales data for the week ending Nov. 6 showed that corn sales fell sharply to a seasonal low of 980,000 MT. The current accumulated export pace is running well of last year and the five-year average.

The USDA will release its December WASDE report on Tuesday. The U.S. balance sheets will focus primarily on demand. It’s possible the USDA could raise the export forecast based on the current pace.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are up 0.75 cents at $11.06. New crop November soybeans are down 0.50 cents at $11.03 ½. Soybean oil is steady. Soybean meal is higher in an attempt to reverse recent losses.

Futures continued to post fresh lows overnight, with the January contract falling below $11 a bushel before bouncing back to mostly unchanged.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. That brings the confirmed total to 2.845 MMT in flash sales alone.

China imported 8.12 MMT of soybeans in November, up 13.4 percent year-over-year, according to the country’s customs data. The country’s imports continued to run at a record pace despite slowing down last month relative to other years.

Brazil’s soybean planting is rounding the final stretch, with 94 percent of the crop planted as of last week. Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural said that rains last week helped improve conditions in Mato Grosso and boosted planting in other areas.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 2.50 cents at $5.38 ¼. KC wheat is down 1.75 cents at $5.29 ½. Spring wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.75 ½.

Futures continued to hold onto minor support levels and maintain its sideways trading range. Current fundamentals remain neutral to bearish.

Tomorrow’s WASDE report is expected to show a slightly tighter U.S. balance sheet, as the market weighs whether the USDA will raise the export forecast or not.

Argentina’s bumper wheat harvest is pushing the country’s prices to an eight-year low as harvest reached the halfway point.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 5, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is moderately lower. Stock futures are steady to higher, with the S&P 500 grinding back toward its October highs. CORN Corn futures continued to consolidate near the upper end of their trading range this week, with gains…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 5, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is moderately lower. Stock futures are steady to higher, with the S&P 500 grinding back toward its October highs.

CORN
Corn futures continued to consolidate near the upper end of their trading range this week, with gains limited below $4.40 on the March contract.

U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Oct. 30 totaled 1.97 MMT, compared to 1.97 MMT the previous week. Mexico remained the top buyer of U.S. corn during the week, followed by Japan and South Korea.

The EIA reported this week that U.S. ethanol production reached a record 1.126 million barrels per day last week. Ethanol processing margins have taken a step back, but the access to domestic bushels and strong ethanol exports have kept incentives in place for strong corn crushings.

Parts of the Corn Belt remain under drought heading into the early stages of winter. Government models currently predict drought relief in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio over the next three months.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures have broadly struggled this week, falling back to minor support levels. The market continues to weigh demand signals, or the lack of demand. Soybean meal has been the weakest market in the complex.

U.S. soybean export sales during the week ending Oct. 30 fell to 1.25 MMT, compared to 1.45 MMT the previous week. China was finally reported on the U.S. sales sheet for the first time since the country was announced to had begun buying U.S. soybeans.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold another 462,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. That brings the confirmed total of flash sales to 2.713 MMT.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is expected to fulfill its alleged commitment of 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by February, moving back the goal post of the original New Year deadline.

WHEAT
Strong global wheat supply prospects continued to pressure the wheat market this week. March Chicago futures were able to rally off their lows on Thursday, but maintained their current trading range around $5.40.

Export demand remains fair. U.S. wheat export sales rose slightly to 516,000 MT during the week ending Oct. 30. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. wheat during the week.

Statistics Canada released its final crop report of the season, showing that the country’s total wheat crop reached 39.96 MMT, up 11.2 percent from a year ago and a record.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 3, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower in support of commodity prices. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are mostly lower. CORN March corn is down 3 cents following the overnight session at $4.47. New crop December corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.67.…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 3, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower in support of commodity prices. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are mostly lower.

CORN
March corn is down 3 cents following the overnight session at $4.47. New crop December corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.67.

Futures posted a strong day on Tuesday, with the March contract trading 5 cents higher to $5.50 a bushel, the highest close in about two weeks. Prices are bumping up against the top end of their range, though price action has been mostly sideways for the past month.

The EIA will release its latest ethanol production and stocks data later today.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the White House will announce a “bridge payment” next week for farmers.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are up 0.50 cents at $11.25 ¼. New crop November soybeans are down 1 cent at $11.22. Soybean oil is lower after reaching fresh two-month highs yesterday. Soybean meal is moderately higher after posting recent losses.

Old crop futures traded 3.25 cents lower on Tuesday after failing to hold onto early-session gains. There hasn’t been much going on in the U.S. and global soybean markets lately.

Bloomberg reported that at least six cargoes of U.S. soybeans were being loaded for shipment to China through the Gulf. No flash sales of soybeans have been reported yet this week, but Bloomberg reported that traders expect China to meet the 12 MMT commitment announced by the White House.

So far, U.S. export inspections remain about 45 percent behind last season and the lowest in a decade.

As far as we know, the South American soybean crop is developing fairly well despite below-average precipitation during the planting season. NDVI data is showing good vegetative growth. January could get interesting if rainfall remains lackluster through December.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is down 2 cents at $5.39. KC wheat is down 2.50 cents at $5.30 ½. Spring wheat is up 0.50 cents at $5.81 ¼.

Winter wheat futures bounced off their support levels on Tuesday, with the Chicago contract trading 6 cents higher. Price action has been fairly lackluster following the limited price rally early in November.

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “retaliatory measures” against ships of countries supporting Ukraine. That followed recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure.

Bloomberg reported that Bangladesh’s government approved a purchase of 220,000 MT of U.S. wheat. That matched a similar approval in early October.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soy export movements get slight boost last week

Corn and wheat export inspections declined last week, while soybean inspections recovered slightly, according to recent data from the USDA on Monday. U.S. corn movements totaled 1.42 million metric tons during the week ending Nov. 27, down 16 percent from the previous week, but remained 50 percent higher than a year ago. Japan was the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 1, 2025

Corn and wheat export inspections declined last week, while soybean inspections recovered slightly, according to recent data from the USDA on Monday. U.S. corn movements totaled 1.42 million metric tons during the week ending Nov. 27, down 16 percent from the previous week, but remained 50 percent higher than a year ago.

Japan was the No. 1 destination for the week, followed by Mexico and Colombia. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 18.97 MMT, about 71 percent above the previous season.

Soybean movements rose nearly 14 percent last week to 920,200 metric tons (MT), though inspections were still more than 50 percent lower than the same week last year. It’s already well past peak export season for soybeans.

Italy was the top destination for the week, with Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom rounding out the top five. China remained absent from the list again. Year-to-date inspections rose to 11.87 MMT, with shipments sitting 45.6 percent below last year.

Wheat export inspections fell 20 percent last week to 384,900 MT. However, volumes remained nearly 30 percent above the same week last year and held above seasonal averages. Seasonally, exports should trend higher through the winter months.

Vietnam was the top destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Mexico and Bangladesh. Accumulated export inspections rose to 13.23 MMT, remaining 20 percent above the previous season. Additionally, inspections are running at the best pace since 2016/17.

Sorghum movements fell sharply last week to 49,100 MT and were well below the same week last year. Mexico was the primary destination of those shipments. Small volumes were reportedly sent to China. Year-to-date shipments rose to 469,200 MT, about 57 percent below last year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 1, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following last week’s holiday-shortened trade. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are lower following last week’s gains. CORN Futures rallied off their recent lows last week, with March futures climbing back above the 200-day moving average. Short-term resistance is around $4.50. The corn…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 1, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following last week’s holiday-shortened trade. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are lower following last week’s gains.

CORN
Futures rallied off their recent lows last week, with March futures climbing back above the 200-day moving average. Short-term resistance is around $4.50.

The corn market continues to focus on strong export demand. Delayed export sales data continues to show strong sales prints throughout October, especially from Mexico.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that the country’s summer corn planting was complete as of last week.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are off to a weaker start this morning after edging higher last week. Soybean oil price was stronger in the product markets, as gains were limited in soybean meal.

No additional soybean flash sales were reported for China this morning. Delayed export sales data released this morning showed that soybean export sales had been improving in October, but the lack of sales to China limited the buying.

Chinese soybean purchases will continue to be the focus, but as noted previously, China began buying U.S. soy outside of its typical window, which could challenge demand.

AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean planting reached 89 percent complete as of last week. Progress was slightly behind the same week last year. Rainfall has improved in some areas, though isolated precipitation has been creating dry spots in primary growing areas.

WHEAT
Mixed trade dominated the wheat complex last week, with March Chicago futures finishing 1.25 cents lower from the previous week. The complex has seen limited upside over the past few weeks amid bearish production news.

U.S. export demand appears to be healthy yet, largely due to lower prices. The U.S. supply and demand balance sheet has been painting a more bearish picture due to higher production. Global wheat prices have attempted to stabilize over the past week.

Australia is expected to harvest its third-largest wheat crop on record this season despite early-season dryness. The country’s Department of Agriculture forecasts output at 35.6 MMT, up about 6 percent from the previous season.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 26, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is steady following yesterday’s losses. Stock futures are higher. Markets will be closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday. CORN March corn is up 2.25 cents at $4.40 ½. New crop December corn is up 0.75 cents at…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 26, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is steady following yesterday’s losses. Stock futures are higher. Markets will be closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday.

CORN
March corn is up 2.25 cents at $4.40 ½. New crop December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.62 ½.

March futures traded 1.50 cents higher on Tuesday. Volume and open interest were higher in support of yesterday’s moderate gains. Futures climbed back above the $4.40 area overnight, which could provide support heading into tomorrow’s holiday.

The EIA will release its latest ethanol production numbers for last week. Pre-report estimates expect that output inched back near record levels, while inventories eased.

Non-market related, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said that farm relief payments should begin to “move out” in early January.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are up 2.25 cents at $11.27. New crop November soybeans are down 2.25 cents at $11.17. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is moderately lower.

Futures were moderately higher on Tuesday, climbing 2.75 cents. Unlike corn, trading volume has been relatively light this week. The market continues to await key news of more confirmed soybean sales to China, as well as key biofuel policy.

Reuters reported overnight that China bought at least 10 more cargoes of U.S. soybeans since Tuesday. Confirmations from the USDA have been trickling in slowly but haven’t fully stopped yet.

A U.S. industry group signed a memorandum of understanding with Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investments for the U.S. to increase soybean exports to the country to promote food security in Central Asia.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 0.50 cents at $5.39 ¾. KC wheat is up 1.25 cents at $5.29 ½. Spring wheat is up 2 cents at $5.82 ¾.

Futures reversed Monday’s losses yesterday after the Chicago contract traded 4.50 cents higher on Tuesday. Volume and open interest were both higher, supporting the moderate gains.

IKAR expects Russia’s wheat crop to reach between 86 and 91 MMT in the upcoming season, compared to 88.5 MMT in 2025. Global supply fundamentals remain bearish.

U.S. exports remain healthy, but U.S. wheat is more expensive than global competitors.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service expects Kazakhstan’s wheat production to decline next season as farmers shift toward oilseeds.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US wheat exports at best pace since 2016/17

U.S. corn export inspections softened last week, while wheat movements rose back to their seasonal highs, according to the USDA’s latest grain export inspections reports on Monday. Corn movements fell 21 percent from the previous week to 1.63 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes remained above their seasonal highs, sitting 62 percent higher than a year…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 25, 2025

U.S. corn export inspections softened last week, while wheat movements rose back to their seasonal highs, according to the USDA’s latest grain export inspections reports on Monday. Corn movements fell 21 percent from the previous week to 1.63 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes remained above their seasonal highs, sitting 62 percent higher than a year ago.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for the week, followed by Japan and South Korea. Cumulative shipments for the 2025/26 season rose to 17.48 MMT, up 72 percent year-over-year. Additionally, shipments are running at a record pace, accounting for 22 percent of the USDA’s target.

Soybean export inspections fell 34 percent from the previous week to 799,000 metric tons (MT), the lowest volume in about two months. The lack of demand from China continued to way on inspections this season.

Bangladesh was the top destination for the week. Algeria, Italy, Vietnam, and Taiwan rounded out the top five. Accumulated inspections for the season rose to 10.94 MMT, though exports remained about 45 percent lower than a year ago. Additionally, inspections are at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

Wheat movements improved, with inspections nearly doubling from the previous week to 474,500 MT. Exports were 30 percent higher than the same week last year. The Philippines was the No. 1 destination, followed by Bangladesh and Taiwan.

Cumulative totals for the season rose to 12.84 MMT, still running about 20 percent ahead of the previous marketing year and the best pace since the 2016/17 season.

Sorghum export inspections fell 11 percent from the previous week to 74,300 MT, with volumes also 38 percent lower than a year ago. Accumulated shipments rose to 420,100 MT, 53 percent behind last year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 25, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar dropped sharply overnight. Crude oil is also sharply lower. Stock futures are steady to higher. CORN March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.38 ½. New crop December corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.61 ¾. Futures traded moderately…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 25, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar dropped sharply overnight. Crude oil is also sharply lower. Stock futures are steady to higher.

CORN
March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.38 ½. New crop December corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.61 ¾.

Futures traded moderately lower on Monday but were able to recover slightly from yesterday’s lows. Still, prices posted a fourth consecutive low on Monday. First notice day for the December contract is coming up on Friday.

Corn demand remains solid, as evidenced by exports and ethanol production.

U.S. corn export inspections fell sharply last week but maintained their seasonally strong pace at 1.63 MMT, up 62 percent year-over-year. Total inspections for the season are running 72 percent ahead of last year at 17.48 MMT.

The USDA’s catch-up export sales report for Oct. 9 showed that old crop corn export sales remained relatively strong despite pulling back from the previous week.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are up 4.25 cents at $11.27 ½. New crop November soybeans are up 0.75 cents at $11.17 ½. Soybean oil is lower for a fifth consecutive session. Soybean meal is sharply higher in an attempt to recover from recent losses.

No additional flash sales were reported for China this morning, but there is still an expectation that the country has not finished scooping up supplies. China remained absent from the sales sheet during the first week of October.

Future reports could begin to show China back in the game, providing a broader picture of their buying outside of the flash sales report. President Trump said he spoke with President Xi over the phone this week, with talks including soybeans and farm products.

Cash soybean meal prices continued to work higher last week, likely due to strong export demand.

Grain export data continued to show poor soybean export inspections last week, with totals for the marketing year running 44.5 percent behind last year. Exports to China likely won’t show up until December or January.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is up 1.75 cents at $5.36 ½. KC wheat is up 2.25 cents at $5.24 ¾. Spring wheat is 2 cents lower at $5.74.

Global price pressure negatively impacted U.S. futures on Monday, causing the Chicago contract broke below support levels yesterday.

Russian farmers are reportedly selling grain at a record speed to help cover production costs. Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon said farmers will likely continue selling grain at a record pace in the coming months, which will put pressure on global prices.

The USDA reported that U.S. winter wheat conditions improved last week, with 48 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition, compared to 45 percent the previous week. Beneficial rainfall in the Southern and Central Plains aided crop development ahead of the dormancy period.

New bullish news may be needed for the market to resume working higher, as recent news has limited gains.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 24, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. Dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are higher following Friday’s bounce. CORN March corn is down 0.75 cents at $4.36 ¾. New crop December corn is down 0.50 cents at $4.59 ½. Futures continued to struggle after the March…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 24, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. Dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are higher following Friday’s bounce.

CORN
March corn is down 0.75 cents at $4.36 ¾. New crop December corn is down 0.50 cents at $4.59 ½.

Futures continued to struggle after the March contract broke below the $4.40 support area on Thursday. Trading volume could get lighter ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

The USDA finally released crush data for the rest of the 2024/25 season on Friday. The agency reported that corn crushed for ethanol in August totaled 463.4 million bushels, down 3.4 percent year-over-year. Total crushings for the marketing year were down about 1.1 percent.

Lower crush stems from higher production efficiencies offsetting record ethanol production.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural said that 93 percent of the country’s summer corn planting was complete as of last week. Progress was slightly below last year’s pace.

China’s corn prices have been rallying since mid-October. Bloomberg reported that heavy rains have been damaging some it its domestic corn crop recently. The country is currently projected to harvest a record crop this year.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are down 4,25 cents at $11.20 ¾. New crop November soybeans are down 2.50 cents at $11.09 ½. Soybean oil is sharply lower. Soybean meal is lower.

Futures resume their negative pressure overnight following Friday’s slight recovering from a two-week low. January soybeans ended on a negative note last week after reaching 17-month highs on Tuesday. Traders will continue to watch for further signs of China’s buying of U.S. soybeans.

The USDA confirmed on Monday that private exporters sold 123,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. That brings the running total of confirmed sales to 1.939 MMT.

The USDA reported that oilseed processors crushed 198 million bushels of soybeans in August, up 18 percent year-over-year. Total crushings for the 2024/25 season totaled 2.445 billion bushels, up nearly 7 percent from last year.

AgRural reported that 81 percent of Brazil’s soybean crop was planted as of last week, five percentage points behind last year’s pace. The firm noted that the main concern has been irregular rainfall in the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás.

The country continues to experience below-normal rainfall for much of its main growing regions.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is down 4.50 cents at $5.35 ¼. KC wheat is 4 cents lower at $5.22 ¼. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.75 ¼.

The wheat market attempted to climb above technical resistance last week but ultimately failed. Chicago futures are trading back at near-term support levels this morning. Prices remain about 30 cents above their contract low.

Showers are currently making their way across the Southern Plains and mid-South regions early this morning, which could aid crop establishment.

Meanwhile, heavy rain may have delayed harvest progress in some areas of Argentina and Southern Brazil.

The U.S. set a deadline of Thursday for Ukraine to decide on a proposed Black Sea peace deal. It’s assumed that a peace deal could improve export logistics, though plenty of wheat was able to get to the global market in the middle of the war.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – November 21, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher. CORN March corn is down 1 cent at $4.36 ¾. New crop December corn is down 1.50 cents at $4.59 ½. Futures extended their losses on Thursday, trading 3.75 cents lower…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 21, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is lower. Stock futures are higher.

CORN
March corn is down 1 cent at $4.36 ¾. New crop December corn is down 1.50 cents at $4.59 ½.

Futures extended their losses on Thursday, trading 3.75 cents lower to $4.37 ¾. Prices broke below the lower end of their consolidation around $4.40.

Delayed weekly export sales continued to show strong export business for U.S. corn.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting reached 37.3 percent complete. Progress was 12.64 percentage points behind last year. Some areas are experiencing excessive moisture, limiting fertilizer application.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are down 3.50 cents at $11.19. New crop November soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $11.12. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is moderately higher.

Futures traded lower for a third session on Thursday, with January prices losing 13.75 cents. Prices have erased all of their weekly gains in what appears to the a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation on China’s soybean buying.

No additional flash sales were reported this morning, which could be seen as negative due to media reports reporting more than the confirmed tonnage.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s soybean planting reached 24.6 percent complete this week. Progress is 11 percentage points behind last year, largely due to rain delays in parts of the Buenos Aires province.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is down 1.75 cents at $5.39. KC wheat is down 0.25 cents at $5.23 ½. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.79 ½.

Futures traded lower for a second day on Thursday, losing 8.75 cents to close at $5.40 ¾. Volume and open interest were both higher in support of the selling.

Global wheat production is reportedly doing well yet. Global export values moved lower this week, led by France milling wheat and Russian milling wheat.

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said the country expects to harvest the best wheat crop in three years. Wheat production is estimated at 13.05 MMT, up from 12.45 MMT last season.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s wheat harvest continued to progress well. Preliminary yield reports are showing average yields exceeding historical averages.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production forecast to 88.6 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 87.8 MMT.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Firm lowers Brazilian 2025/26 soybean output

The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output estimate was cut to 179 million metric tons (MMT) from 180.9 MMT as was last reported Sept. 5. The new estimate from Safras & Mercado, if realized, would result in a 4 percent increase in output year-over-year. This season, planted area is estimated at 119.4 million acres, compared to 117.6…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 20, 2025

The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output estimate was cut to 179 million metric tons (MMT) from 180.9 MMT as was last reported Sept. 5. The new estimate from Safras & Mercado, if realized, would result in a 4 percent increase in output year-over-year.

This season, planted area is estimated at 119.4 million acres, compared to 117.6 million acres in 2024/25. Planting is estimated to be about 75 percent complete, according to consultancy firm AgRural.

Overall, the weather has been mostly favorable for crop establishment in Brazil, though precipitation has been below normal so far this season.

Despite these declines in output for this marketing year, a record soybean harvest is expected for 2026. The total supply in 2026 is expected to increase by 6 percent to 184.3 MMT, with demand at 171.4 MMT, which is also a 2 percent increase from last year.

Soybean exports from Brazil are also now estimated to be 109 MMT, 2 percent higher than the 107 MMT expected for 2025. This is down slightly from a previous estimate of 111 MMT due to China’s reemergence as a buyer of U.S. soybeans. The 2025 import forecast is currently at 800,000 metric tons. There is no import forecast for 2026.

Brazilian soybean crush is projected at 58.5 MMT for 2025 and is forecasted at 59.5 MMT for 2026.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.