The USDA will release its March WASDE report on Tuesday, offering the potential for additional adjustments to the U.S. and global balance sheets.

It’s likely that the latest price impacts from the erupting conflict between the U.S. and Iran could overshadow Tuesday’s report. Or, it could offer a reality check to the current price action experienced this past week. But anticipation from the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports at the end of the month will likely take larger precedent over the direction of the grain trade leading into the spring.

CORN
Minimal changes are expected for next week’s report, according to a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates. The U.S. corn carryout is seen just 4 million bushels higher than the February forecast at 2.131 billion bushels.

Current pace analysis suggests the USDA could raise its corn export forecast, as shipments already having a tremendous lead this season.

Additionally, the corn ethanol use pace is running behind the USDA’s target, suggesting a possible revision lower later in the marketing year. There is time for the pace to pick up, but ethanol production efficiencies and higher sorghum use has been digging into corn ethanol demand this season.

Argentina’s corn crop forecast is expected to remain unchanged at 53 MMT. Brazil’s corn forecast could increase slightly, according to the Bloomberg survey. World corn ending stocks are seen just 500,000 MT higher than the previous month at 289.5 MMT.

SOYBEANS
U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to decline just 4 million bushels from February to 346 million.

Exports remain the largest risk to the balance sheet. The current pace of commitments is running behind the past couple of years despite President Trump saying China could buy more soybeans this season.

There are slight expectations for the USDA to lower its Brazilian soybean production forecast. Well-followed private forecasters recently reduced their production estimates due to ongoing dryness in Southern Brazil. The agency will likely leave its Argentinian production forecast unchanged, according to the average analyst guess.

Global ending stocks are expected to fall by 500,000 MT to 125 MMT.

WHEAT
U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to decline by 5 million bushels to 926 million.

Wheat export commitments are running at a fair pace yet this season. The USDA may be comfortable leaving the current forecast unchanged at 900 million bushels.

Global wheat ending stocks are seen at 277.5 MMT, unchanged from the previous month.

Again, the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran may overshadow Tuesday’s report, especially if the numbers bring no surprises. The ongoing acreage debate may capture more attention from the market amid the recent surge in soybean futures.

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