Tag: Soybeans

Morning Grain Comments – December 31, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher for a second day. Crude oil continued to recover this week. Stock futures are steady to lower as equities struggled to find buyers this week. CORN March corn futures held onto early-week losses after trading 1.75 cents lower on…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 31, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher for a second day. Crude oil continued to recover this week. Stock futures are steady to lower as equities struggled to find buyers this week.

CORN
March corn futures held onto early-week losses after trading 1.75 cents lower on Tuesday to $4.40 ½. Prices retreated back down to the lower end of their consolidation range between $4.35 and $4.55.

Catch-up data from the USDA this morning showed that corn export sales remained strong through the week ending Dec. 18. Sales totaled 2.22 MMT, holding well above seasonal levels.

The EIA will release its latest ethanol production data later this morning. Weekly data suggests ethanol processors are on track to meet the USDA’s target of 5.6 billion bushels, as large domestic supplies encourage crush.

SOYBEANS
March soybean futures were steady on Tuesday but held onto losses from the previous session. Prices traded back near fresh two-month lows overnight.

Bloomberg reported that China has bought more than 8 MMT of U.S. soybeans for the current season. Available USDA data shows that China is confirmed to have purchased just 6.56 MMT of soybeans.

The lack of a formal trade deal will continue to create uncertainty in the market regarding soybean demand.

Soybeans could begin to feel harvest pressure from South America as combines begin rolling into fields over the next few weeks.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat traded 2.25 cents lower to close at $5.10 ¾ a bushel on Tuesday and held onto losses from the previous session. Higher open interest suggests that this week’s selling has likely brought in additional short positions.

Drier weather is expected for the U.S. plains over the next week, though better chances of precipitation are expected to return in week 2. Above-average temperatures could allow rain to soak into the ground and aid soil moisture for areas that have seen growing deficits over the past month.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its wheat production forecast to 27.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 27.1 MMT. That is now the largest private and public forecast for the crop as farmers wrap up the harvest.

Russia and Ukraine continued to strike each other’s Black Sea ports overnight. Ukraine struck a refinery port, while Russia hit Ukraine’s Odesa port, which could impact some commodity shipping.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 30, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are lower. CORN March corn futures extended losses on Monday following Friday’s rejection of a move above resistance. Spot futures traded 7.75 cents lower to close at $4.42 ¼. Prices paused…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 30, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
March corn futures extended losses on Monday following Friday’s rejection of a move above resistance. Spot futures traded 7.75 cents lower to close at $4.42 ¼.

Prices paused their selling just below the 100-day moving average and traded steady overnight. The lack of new bullish news amid the holiday likely limited gains last week, leading to spillover pressure this week.

The EIA released ethanol production data for the week ending Dec. 19, showing that output fell 3.2 percent from the previous week to 1.095 million barrels a day. Production was also 1.1 percent below the same week last year but above the five-year average.

Additionally, ethanol exports surged to 219,000 barrels per day, a record for data going back to May 2023. Exports continue to support domestic ethanol production growth as processors and exporters capitalize on strong international demand.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans also extended their losses on Monday after trading 9 cents lower to $10.63 ½ a bushel. Weakness in the product market held pressure over futures.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. That brings the confirmed total to 6.41 MMT for the season. Another 231,000 MT were sold to unknown buyers.

U.S. soybean exports were muted last week despite shipments still heading to China. China now has the largest commitments of U.S. soybeans for the season compared to other key buyers.

The USDA will release crush data for November on Friday, which is expected to show relatively strong volumes compared to a year ago.

ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Cofco abandoned their soy farming moratorium in Brazil after facing government scrutiny that the 2006 agreement created unfair soybean buying practices. The moratorium aimed at protecting the Amazon Rainforest by not buying soybeans linked to deforestation.

Rainfall in Argentina is expected to be lower than average over the next 10-days, with the possibility of better precipitation in the two-week forecast. Plenty of rain is still forecast for major growing areas in Brazil as crop development continues.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures traded 6 cents lower to close at $5.13. The market has so far erased nearly half of last week’s gains, as prices struggle to move away from recent contract lows.

Higher open interest suggests that yesterday’s selling brought new short positions, which was a trend across the board in the grains on Monday.

Bearish global fundamentals continued to keep prices in check. U.S. wheat exports have responded to lower prices, as shipments remained 22 percent ahead of last year and the fastest pace since the 2016/17 season.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 44.6 MMT, citing a stronger shipment pace.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Grain export inspections decline amid holiday week

U.S. corn and wheat shipments declined sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday last week, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report released on Monday. Corn export inspections fell 25.5 percent to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 25. Volumes were still 43 percent above the same week last year and…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 29, 2025

U.S. corn and wheat shipments declined sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday last week, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report released on Monday. Corn export inspections fell 25.5 percent to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 25. Volumes were still 43 percent above the same week last year and remained at seasonal highs.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week, while Colombia, Japan, and South Korea also landed in the top five. Mexico has maintained its strong lead of U.S. corn imports as the country secures supplies to feed its cattle.

Accumulated corn export inspections rose to 25.57 MMT, sitting 66 percent above last year’s pace. Total inspections remain well above the five-year average and at a record due to substantial growth in exports to Mexico and other key buyers.

Soybean export inspections fell 19 percent last week to 750,300 metric tons (MT). Volumes were also 54 percent below the same week last year amid muted export demand. Soybean inspections have been operating well below the five-year average for much of the marketing year.

China was the top destination for U.S. soybeans, followed closely by Egypt. Japan and Indonesia also landed in the top five for the week. Larger shipments could begin to go to China moving forward, as the country is outpacing others for total commitments of U.S. soybeans, according to export sales data as of Dec. 11. However, the U.S. has been shifting away from its primary export window as more soybeans from South America become available.

Year-to-date inspections rose to 15.4 MMT, down 46 percent from the previous year.

U.S. wheat export movements fell 53 percent from the previous week to 302,100 MT, the lowest print in over a month. Volumes fell below last year’s levels but remained above the five-year average.

Bangladesh was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat last week, followed by Thailand and the Dominican Republic.

Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 15.06 MMT, 22 percent higher than last year. Wheat movements reached 61 percent of the USDA’s 2025/26 target and remained at the fastest pace since the 2016/17 marketing year.

U.S. sorghum export inspections surged last week to 69,400 MT, driven by larger shipments to China. Mexico was also on the destination list for the week. Total shipments for the marketing year remained 55 percent lower than last year at 617,000 MT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 29, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell overnight but failed to support the grain markets. Crude oil is sharply higher in an attempt to reverse Friday’s losses. Stock futures are lower. CORN March corn futures attempted an upside breakout above $4.50 on Wednesday, which did trigger additional…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 29, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell overnight but failed to support the grain markets. Crude oil is sharply higher in an attempt to reverse Friday’s losses. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
March corn futures attempted an upside breakout above $4.50 on Wednesday, which did trigger additional buying above resistance on Friday. However, a lack of follow-though drove prices back into the consolidation range into Friday’s close and early this morning.

Futures still closed 6.25 cents higher last week despite Friday’s reversal. Trading volume was fairly light last week amid the holiday trade, which could be the case for part of this week with markets closed on Thursday for New Years.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting reached 77.7 percent complete, supported by favorable moisture conditions for crop development.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures halted their selling last week following three consecutive weeks of declines. The March contract struggled to climb back above October’s breakaway gap, leaving prices in their previous consolidation range established almost a year ago.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 100,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt for the 2025/26 marketing year.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s soybean planting is nearly complete, with progress finishing up in some areas where significant rainfall was recorded. Overall, conditions remain favorable for crop development due to adequate soil moisture.

WHEAT
Wheat futures rallied last week, with KC wheat leading the rebound. March prices climbed 18.25 cents a bushel before finding resistance at the 100-moving average. The indicator has been a key level of resistance for the past couple of months.

Chicago futures experienced modest weekly gains after posting fresh contract lows the week before. Some of that buying was driven by speculative short-covering. Speculators still hold a sizable short position in the wheat market, which does make prices vulnerable to additional short covering. However, there is additional room for funds to continue adding shorts.

A private Russian firm raised its Russian wheat forecast to 91.4 MMT, well above SovEcon’s 88.8 MMT and the USDA’s 87.5 MMT estimates.

Argentina’s wheat harvest continued to progress ahead of the five-year average last week. Eight-four percent of the crop was harvested, with strong yield reports still coming in. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept its production forecast unchanged at a record 27.1 MMT.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 23, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady after surging yesterday. Stock futures are lower but have posted a recent recovery. CORN March corn futures continued to push to the upper end of the trading range on Monday, trading 3.25 cents…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 23, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady after surging yesterday. Stock futures are lower but have posted a recent recovery.

CORN
March corn futures continued to push to the upper end of the trading range on Monday, trading 3.25 cents higher to $4.47. Prices held onto those gains in the overnight session but stopped short of the $4.50 resistance area. Lighter holiday trade this week could keep prices rangebound.

Corn continues to have a strong demand story. The U.S. dollar pulled back to the lowest level since early October, which helps keep exports competitive on the global stage. U.S. corn remains cheap relative to other major exporters.

Catch-up export sales data showed another strong week of corn sales during the week ending Dec. 11. Japan was the top buyer for the week, with large volumes also purchased from key buyers South Korea and Mexico.

Total export sales and commitments continued to run at a record pace as buyers flock to relatively cheap U.S. supplies.

SOYBEANS
March soybean futures finally paused their recent selling, after trading 5.50 cents higher on Monday to close at $10.65 a bushel. Higher trade this week would end three weeks of losses after a strong round of speculative long liquidation.

Catch-up data for the USDA’s export sales report this week showed stronger soybean sales for the week ending Dec. 11. Sales jumped to a marketing-year high of 2.42 MMT, with China scooping up more than half of that. That brings confirmed sales to China for the season to 6.27 MMT, 52 percent of the 12 MMT target.

U.S. soybean export prices to China remain higher than Brazil prices, according to Barchart.

Favorable South American weather will likely hold weight over the soybean complex as farmers begin harvesting soybeans in Brazil.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures extended their bounce from recent contract lows after trading 5.75 cents higher on Monday to close at $5.15 ½. Slightly speculative short-covering likely drove the gains as suggested by lower open interest and volume for the day.

Light holiday trade could help trigger additional short covering this week, though fundamentals remain bearish.

Temperatures are expected to climb well above average this week and hit a record high for Christmas day. Additionally, winter wheat areas have been trending drier this month amid a lack of precipitation.

Meanwhile, cold snaps are expected to hit parts of Southwest Russia in the near term, though snow cover could limit some risks.

Russia escalated its drone attacks against Ukrainian ports facilities this week, which could cause crop export disruptions. The recent attack damaged a civilian vessel carrying Ukrainian soybeans.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US wheat export inspections surge to seasonal high

U.S. grain export inspections rose last week, with corn and wheat shipments holding above seasonal highs, according to the USDA on Monday. Corn export inspections rose 9 percent to 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 18. Volumes were also 52 percent above the same week last year, as demand continued from…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 22, 2025

U.S. grain export inspections rose last week, with corn and wheat shipments holding above seasonal highs, according to the USDA on Monday. Corn export inspections rose 9 percent to 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 18. Volumes were also 52 percent above the same week last year, as demand continued from key buyers.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. South Korea, Spain, and Japan were also top destinations.

Accumulated corn export inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 24.27 MMT, sitting 68 percent above a year ago, reaching 31 percent of the USDA’s export target.

Soybean export inspections rose 7.4 percent last week to 870,200 metric tons (MT). However, volumes were still 51 percent below the same week last year.

China was the top destination for the week, accounting for 386,000 MT of the total. Mexico was the No. 2 destination. China is confirmed to have purchased nearly half of the 12 MMT of soybeans it pledged to buy from the United States.

Total soybean inspections for the marketing year rose to 14.59 MMT, 46 percent lower than last year.

U.S. wheat movements jumped 28 percent last week to 627,400 MT. Inspections were the best since late September and well above their seasonal average for the week. Volumes were 47 percent higher than a year ago and topped every year since 2005.

Mexico was the top destination for wheat last week. Japan, Thailand, and China also landed in the top five.

Accumulated wheat export inspections rose to 14.75 MMT, running 23 percent ahead of last year. Strong hard red winter wheat shipments have been driving higher year-over-year demand, particularly for Mexico, Nigeria, and parts of Asia.

Sorghum export inspections fell sharply last week to just 4,000 MT. Those shipments were bound for China, according to the USDA. Year-to-date inspections are running 60 percent behind last season at 546,500 MT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 22, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight to begin the holiday-shortened week. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Wednesday and resume trading normal hours at 8:30 am CT on Friday. CORN March corn futures rallied again overnight and pushed to the upper end of its trading range. Prices may find…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 22, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight to begin the holiday-shortened week. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Wednesday and resume trading normal hours at 8:30 am CT on Friday.

CORN
March corn futures rallied again overnight and pushed to the upper end of its trading range. Prices may find overhead resistance around $4.50 could limit gains this week. Lighter holiday trade this week could keep prices rangebound.

The rumor that China bought a few cargoes of U.S. corn was not confirmed in the morning flash sales reports on Friday or this morning. They could still appear tomorrow morning. Or, if the individual sales were small enough, they could avoid triggering a flash sales announcement.

As the CFTC continues to catch up on its Commitment of Traders data reporting, managed money has been relatively neutral in the corn market since mid-November. That could leave room for funds to build a long position.

SOYBEANS
March futures bounced higher overnight following six consecutive sessions of losses. The soybean market has struggled to find support since closing the late October gap created by the Trump-Xi meeting.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 396,000 MT of soybeans to China. Of the total, 66,000 MT were bought for the 2026/27 marketing year. Flash sales and catch-up data show that China is confirmed to have bought about half of the 12 MMT pledge.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 MMT, which is the highest estimate among government and private forecasters. The firm noted that some farmers have begun harvesting the soybean crop.

The start of Brazil’s soybean harvest could continue to pressure soybean prices, as there have been few weather threats for the crop this season.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures bounced higher overnight as prices held above last week’s fresh contract lows. Prices stabilized above $5 a bushel, which will likely serve as psychological support.

The Kansas City wheat contract has been outperforming Chicago wheat lately and has returned to its typical premium.

Wheat exports out of Russia are expected to be slower this month compared to a year ago. Global wheat prices have been steady over the past month, with the possibility that bearish news is beginning to get priced in.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 19, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday ahead of the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher but has experienced a limited recovery from recent eight-month lows. Stock futures are steady following yesterday’s rebound. CORN March corn futures continued to bounce higher on Thursday, trading 4 cents higher to close at…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 19, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday ahead of the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher but has experienced a limited recovery from recent eight-month lows. Stock futures are steady following yesterday’s rebound.

CORN
March corn futures continued to bounce higher on Thursday, trading 4 cents higher to close at $4.44 ½. Prices pushed back up to the middle of their sideways consolidation range. There has been a lack of a catalyst to push futures out of their range ahead of the holidays.

Corn demand remains the highlight, with record ethanol production last week and a continuation of record exports.

The percentage of corn areas in drought increased by one percent this week, according to the latest Drought Monitor, with 32 percent of the area experiencing some level of drought. Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions has maintained that parts of the Corn Belt could see above-average precipitation this winter that would allow for better moisture conditions in the spring.

Steady rainfall this week continues to benefit developing crops in Brazil and Argentina. Adequate moisture levels favors crop emergence and development in Argentina.

SOYBEANS
Selling momentum continued to send soybean futures lower this week, with the March contract losing another 6.75 cents to close at $10.62. Prices have been falling back into their old consolidation range that stretched from September 2024 until the Trump-Xi meeting in October.

Traders have likely been liquidating long positions that were built up from the China trade announcement. Speculators held one of the largest net-long positions in November as speculative buying drove the price surge.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 134,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Like corn, soybean crop development has been progressing under favorable conditions in South America. Argentina’s soybean planting is nearly three-quarters complete, with much of the crop experiencing adequate to optimal soil moisture.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures were steady on Thursday but held near their recent contract lows. Prices continued to test the area just above the key $5 mark. Meanwhile, KC wheat futures surged 9.25 cents higher yesterday after avoiding new contract lows.

The physical wheat market remains well supplied as harvest continues in the southern hemisphere.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange boosted its 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 27.1 MMT, up 6.3 percent from the previous estimate. The exchange has been reporting exceptional yields compared to historical averages and noted that it will not rule out another increase as the harvest progresses.

The European Union raised its 2025/26 soft wheat production forecast slightly this month to 134.4 MMT, which is 21.1 percent higher than the previous season. Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production estimate again to 88.8 MMT. The firm and USDA currently have production at the third-best on record.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn rebounds on demand, soybeans under pressure

Corn futures extended their rebound from multi-week lows on Thursday as the market ran out of sellers near the lower end of their trading range. March corn traded about a nickel higher to about $4.45 a bushel by midday on Thursday. Prices climbed back above the 100-day moving average, where a close above the indicator…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 18, 2025

Corn futures extended their rebound from multi-week lows on Thursday as the market ran out of sellers near the lower end of their trading range. March corn traded about a nickel higher to about $4.45 a bushel by midday on Thursday. Prices climbed back above the 100-day moving average, where a close above the indicator could be positive.

Prices remain in a broader sideways trading range between $4.35 and $4.50. Bullish demand dynamics could keep prices supported above the low end of that range.

The EIA reported that ethanol production hit a new record last week of 1.131 million barrels per day during the week ending Dec. 12. The previous high was set on Nov. 28. Ethanol producers have access to ample corn supplies following this year’s harvest.

Exports continue to outperform previous seasons, with total shipments 69 percent ahead of last year. The recent break in corn futures could have helped spur some additional flash sales we saw earlier in the week.

Soybean futures have been less positive, as prices continued to push lower as the goes on. March soybeans traded more than 5 cents lower, nearing $10.60. Prices traded below the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. Futures have struggled to find support since closing their Oct. 27 breakaway gap.

China is believed to have bought at least 7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans so far, more than half of the 12 MMT the White House said China would buy by the end of February. Bloomberg cited anonymous sources, which aligns with sentiment from StoneX and its sources. Still, the market has struggled to find more willing buyers, which alludes to the idea that China stepping in with purchases is not enough to support total demand.

The White Housing pushing back its announcement of finalized biofuel policy for the next two years has also weighed on the soybean complex.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar traded higher overnight to recover some recent losses. Crude oil rebounded from yesterday’s lows after hitting the lowest level in over eight months. Stock futures also recovered slightly from yesterday’s losses. CORN After fighting off their lows on Monday, selling pressure…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar traded higher overnight to recover some recent losses. Crude oil rebounded from yesterday’s lows after hitting the lowest level in over eight months. Stock futures also recovered slightly from yesterday’s losses.

CORN
After fighting off their lows on Monday, selling pressure resumed in March corn futures on Tuesday, losing 3.25 cents to close at $4.36 ½. Prices recovered slightly overnight but a test of the low end of the range around $4.35 remains likely.

New contract lows in Chicago wheat futures have added negative pressure. Crude oil saw a minor rebound this morning, which could lift some bearish pressure after hitting eight-month lows on Tuesday.

Corn continues to have a strong demand story between exports and ethanol production.

Corn crop development continues to progress well in Brazil and Argentina following recent rainfall.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures continued their selling on Tuesday, trading 9.50 cents lower to $10.71 ¾. Futures officially closed the breakaway gap from late October when the Trump administration announced a trade deal with China.

Prices could find support at these levels, but a lot of the pressure is also coming from the product markets. Soybean oil is trading at a six-month low amid the lack of biofuel policy uncertainty. Soybean meal prices have been consolidating over the past week and have been holding above $300 per ton.

China continues to clear its soybean reserves, likely to make room for recent U.S. soybean purchases.

We maintain that South America currently lacks a bullish story that would support the market. Rain is landing in areas that need it. Our latest discussion with Nutrien Ag Solutions’ Eric Snodgrass did touch on the idea that if rain does persist too long through January, there could be some harvest delays. However, that would be a larger story for the Safrinha corn crop.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures accelerated their trade to the downside on Tuesday, losing 11.25 cents to close at $5.09 ½. Prices also posted new life of contract lows after taking out the Oct. 14 low.

Open interest and volume were substantially higher yesterday in support of the selling. Bullish news remains limited. Prices may continue to test these levels to search for additional sellers.

Rumors floated yesterday that China canceled some purchases of U.S. wheat this week. China had booked only a couple of cargoes, but the idea of cancellations is negative for sentiment.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 16, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push to a two-month low overnight. Crude oil is down sharply and trading at the lowest in about eight months. Stock futures also extended recent losses. CORN March corn futures traded moderately lower on Monday after rebounding from their…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 16, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push to a two-month low overnight. Crude oil is down sharply and trading at the lowest in about eight months. Stock futures also extended recent losses.

CORN
March corn futures traded moderately lower on Monday after rebounding from their intraday lows. Negative trade continued overnight, likely driven by ongoing weakness in the wheat complex.

Prices are testing the bottom end of their trading range since breaking below their tighter consolidation on Friday. The low end of the current range is around $4.35, which could provide support.

Last week’s break below the 100-day moving average is also negative for the short term.

Crude oil breaking to eight-month lows overnight continues to weigh on the corn market.

SOYBEANS
March soybean futures extended their losses from last week after trading 5.50 cents lower on Monday to $10.81 ½. Friday’s break below the 100-day moving average is negative.

Prices are testing the Oct. 27 breakaway gap between $10.73 and $10.83. Holding above the breakout, even after closing the gap, would be positive for the market.

The USDA’s grain export sales report on Monday showed that soybean sales for the week ending Nov. 20 totaled 2.32 MMT, boosted by strong sales to China of 2.14 MMT. That brought China’s confirmed total to just over 4 MMT or 34 percent of the White House’s 12 MMT target.

China’s SinoGrain sold 63 percent of the 500,000 MT of soybeans auctioned this week. Another 550,000 MT are set for auction later this week. The sales are expected to clear room for U.S. soybean deliveries.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that U.S. soybean crush totaled 216 million bushels in November, up 12 percent year-over-year. Cumulative crushings among NOPA members are running 12 percent ahead of last season.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures extended losses this week, losing 8.50 cents on Monday to close at $5.20 ¾. Weakness continued overnight as the market continues to view global supplies as ample, especially from the southern hemisphere.

Volume and open interest have been rising in support of the recent selling. Futures could be setting up for a test of the contract low of $5.08 ½ set on Oct. 14.

While the Commitment of Traders data continues to catch up, it is probably safe to assume that managed money traders have been adding back to their net short position over the past few weeks after prices failed to hold above resistance levels in November.

Aside from strong U.S. exports, there is not much bullish news to help support wheat prices. Globally, Egypt’s wheat imports have been slowing as the country’s new grain buyer prioritizes purchasing efficiencies.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US soybean crush falls from record in November

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 216 million bushels of soybeans in November, up 11.8 percent year-over-year, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association on Monday. Crushings fell from their all-time high in October but maintained their record for the month of November. Year-to-date processing reached 641.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year that began in…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 15, 2025

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 216 million bushels of soybeans in November, up 11.8 percent year-over-year, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association on Monday.

Crushings fell from their all-time high in October but maintained their record for the month of November. Year-to-date processing reached 641.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year that began in September, up 12 percent from the previous season.

Processing was lower than the 220.7 million predicted by a Bloomberg survey of analyst guesses. However, the data continues to depict a strong incentive for processors to crush soybeans domestically amid lower export demand.

U.S. soybean meal and soybean oil production has also been a record over the past year due to strong soybean crush.

Soybean oil inventories at the end of last month totaled 1.513 billion pounds, up 40 percent year-over-year and a seven-month high. Stocks were well above market expectations as supplies continued to rebound with record soybean crushings and limited domestic demand.

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