Tag: Soybeans

Corn, Soybeans and Wheat export sales decline last week

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed a drop in weekly corn and soybean export sales, with wheat only dipping slightly. For the week ending Feb 19., net corn sales totaled 685,800 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 marketing year, down 53 percent compared to the previous week. The top buyer of corn…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 26, 2026

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Thursday showed a drop in weekly corn and soybean export sales, with wheat only dipping slightly.

For the week ending Feb 19., net corn sales totaled 685,800 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 marketing year, down 53 percent compared to the previous week. The top buyer of corn was Mexico, followed by Japan and Morocco. Total net sales of 11,700 MT for 2026/27 were for Mexico.

Physical exports rose 21 percent to 1.967 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous week, led by shipments to Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. Cumulative exports and commitments are running 29 percent ahead of the previous season at 62.96 MMT.

U.S. Soybean export sales dropped 49 percent from the previous week to 407,100 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year. Egypt led buyers, followed by Germany and China. Sales for the week remained above the marketing year low hit earlier this month.

Weekly exports were also down 37 percent from the previous week at 811,500 MT. China remained the top destination, followed by Germany and Mexico. Total exports and commitments for the current marketing year are still running 19 percent behind the 2024/25 season at 35.65 MMT.

Soybean meal sales fell to 269,600 MT for 2025/26, down 44 percent from the previous week. Demand was led by buyers in Morocco, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. Total net sales of 30,000 MT for 2026/27 were for unknown destinations. Physical exports were up 14 percent from the previous week to 465,300 MT.

Wheat export sales during the week ending Feb. 19 fell 16 percent from the prior week to 243,000 MT for 2025/26. Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Nigeria and South Korea. Net sales of 107,000 MT for 2026/27 were reported for South Korea, unknown destinations, the Philippines, Mexico, and Japan.

Weekly exports were up 67 percent to 540,000 MT. The top destinations included the Phillipines, South Korea and Nigeria. Total exports and commitments for the season hit 22.84 MMT, 14 percent higher than a year ago.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soybean futures trade near November highs

Soybean futures continued to test the upper end of their recent consolidation range on Wednesday as the market shook off the recent tariff news. May soybeans traded more than a nickel higher, holding around $11.62 a bushel ahead of the afternoon. U.S. soybeans continue to hold a large premium over their Brazilian competitor. There remains…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 25, 2026

Soybean futures continued to test the upper end of their recent consolidation range on Wednesday as the market shook off the recent tariff news. May soybeans traded more than a nickel higher, holding around $11.62 a bushel ahead of the afternoon.

U.S. soybeans continue to hold a large premium over their Brazilian competitor. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the market regarding China’s continued purchases of U.S. soy. So far, that uncertainty has favored the bull camp, as prices are only 15 cents below their November highs.

Soybean meal largely led the gains for the complex, with the May contract up about 2.5 percent. Demand for soybean meal has been strong, largely due to exports running at another record this season. Total exports and commitments are 10 percent higher than a year ago at 11.5 million metric tons, according to the latest USDA data.

The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to send its finalized Renewable Volume Obligations to the White House’s Budget Office today, according to the Renewable Fuels Association. That means the final RVOs could be released in early March, offering clarity on biofuel policy that companies have been waiting for.

Domestic soybean oil usage in biofuel production lagged compared to previous years in 2025, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Current expectations point toward favorable blending mandates, which have soybean oil trading at contract highs.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Monthly Grain Trade – December 2025

U.S. corn exports totaled 7.099 million metric tons (MMT) in December, up 30 percent year-over-year. That was the largest monthly volume since last May and a record for the month. Mexico remained the top importer for the month, accounting for about a third of the shipments. Japan and South Korea were the next largest buyers.…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 24, 2026

U.S. corn exports totaled 7.099 million metric tons (MMT) in December, up 30 percent year-over-year. That was the largest monthly volume since last May and a record for the month. Mexico remained the top importer for the month, accounting for about a third of the shipments. Japan and South Korea were the next largest buyers.

For the marketing year that began in September, total shipments reached 28 MMT, sitting 51 percent above the same period last season. Much of the growth has been driven by exports to South Korea (270 percent), Japan (74 percent), Mexico (7 percent), and Colombia (6 percent). Mexico has been the largest buyer for multiple years due to the country’s demand for corn feed and disappointing harvests. There has also been significant growth in exports to the rest of the world as the U.S. diversified its customer base.

U.S. soybean exports in December totaled 4.46 MMT, 44 percent lower than the same week last year. That was the lowest December print since the previous trade war with China in 2018. China was the top destination for U.S. soybeans during the month, accounting for 31 percent of the total, as shipments to the country picked up. Mexico was the second-largest destination for the month, followed by Indonesia and Egypt.

Year-to-date shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 16.97 MMT, still about 24 percent below the previous season. Sluggish exports to China weighed on overall soybean demand. Demand outside of China has been higher this year, with higher year-over-year exports to Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt, Japan, and Pakistan. However, China’s return to the buyer list is expected to weigh on demand from other major importers.

Wheat exports totaled 1.9 MMT in December, up 15 percent year-over-year and a four-month high. Mexico was the largest importer for the month, despite declining from December 2024. The Philippines was the No. 2 destination, followed by Bangladesh, Thailand, and Japan.

Year-to-date shipments for the season that began in June reached 15.43 MMT, rising 21 percent from the previous year. Additionally, exports have been running at the fastest pace in about five years, sitting just below the pace seen in the 2020/21 season. Growth in wheat exports this season has been largely driven by shipments to Mexico, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Colombia.

The January U.S. Census Trade Data will be released on March 12.
Soybean export inspections hit multi-month low

U.S. corn export inspections surged last week, falling short of a fresh marketing-year highs, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. For the week ending Feb. 19, corn movements rose 33 percent from the previous week to 2 million metric tons (MMT), hitting the second-largest volume for the season. Inspections were also…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 23, 2026

U.S. corn export inspections surged last week, falling short of a fresh marketing-year highs, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report on Monday. For the week ending Feb. 19, corn movements rose 33 percent from the previous week to 2 million metric tons (MMT), hitting the second-largest volume for the season. Inspections were also 72 percent higher than the same week last year.

Japan was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Mexico, South Korea, and Colombia also landed in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 37.74 MMT, up 46 percent year-over-year and continued to run at a record pace.

Soybean export inspections fell 45 percent last week to 669,900 metric tons (MT), hitting the lowest volume in about five months. Shipments were also 24 percent below the same week last year.

China accounted for about half of the inspections. Smaller volumes were also destined for Mexico, Egypt, and Japan. Year-to-date shipments rose to 25.03 MMT, sitting about 32 percent lower than a year ago. Inspections are also running at the slowest pace since the 2018/19 season.

Wheat export inspections rose 42 percent last week to 535,100 MT. Volumes were also 37 percent above the same week last year, as shipments continued to track above the five-year average.

The Philippines was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Nigeria, Bangladesh, and South Korea. Accumulated wheat inspections rose to 18.24 MMT, up 19 percent from the previous season. Shipments are also running at the fastest pace since the 2018/19 season.

U.S. sorghum inspections fell 17 percent last week to 200,300 MT, though volumes were still sharply higher than the same week last year. Total shipments for the season are running 31 percent ahead of last year at 1.93 MMT amid renewed demand from China.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are steady to lower. CORN May corn traded a modest 2.25 cents lower to $4.39 ¾ last week after recovering from Tuesday’s sharp selloff. Spillover strength from the wheat market last week helped…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 23, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are steady to lower.

CORN
May corn traded a modest 2.25 cents lower to $4.39 ¾ last week after recovering from Tuesday’s sharp selloff. Spillover strength from the wheat market last week helped corn futures rally on Friday, though the market remains in a sideways range.

U.S. corn exports and sales continued to progress at a favorable pace amid strong demand. Private exporters reported the flash sale of 125,000 MT of corn sold to Colombia for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Weather premium in the markets has been hard to come by with mostly favorable conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that half of Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop was planted as of last week, down from 64 percent a year ago. Progress was right in line with last year in Mato Grosso.

Recent rainfall helped raise Argentina’s corn crop ratings after weeks of declines. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 51 percent of the crop was in good/excellent condition, compared to 42 percent the previous week and 28 percent a year ago.

SOYBEANS
Despite Friday’s volatile trade, May soybean futures managed to finish 4.50 cents higher last week at $11.53 ¼, marking a third consecutive week of gains.

Futures fell heading into the morning session on Monday following the Supreme Court’s decision on Friday to strike down President Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Trump later imposed a 15 percent global tariff on Saturday, but the Supreme Court’s decision could reduce leverage against China, threatening the country’s commitment to buy more U.S. soybeans.

Soybeans in Brazil are trading about $1 higher than U.S. soybeans, so the lack of leverage could disincentivize China from sourcing futures U.S. supplies.

Protesters seized a Cargill export terminal in Brazil’s Amazon region, likely affecting shipments during the country’s prime soybean export season.

AgRural reported that 30 percent of Brazil’s soybean harvest was complete as of last week. Progress was behind last year’s pace of 39 percent due to a slower pace outside of Mato Grosso.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures rallied significantly last week, finishing 31 ¾ cents higher at $5.80 ¼. Thursday and Friday’s trade brought higher open interest, suggesting real buying outside of speculative short-covering.

A strong close above the 200-day moving average for a second day is positive, and a pullback could find technical support.

U.S. wheat exports and sales have been slowing recently. Data for the week ending Feb. 12 showed exports remained 21 percent ahead of last season and are on track to meet the USDA’s target.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Corn export sales soften last week, soybeans rebound

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Friday showed a step back in weekly corn export sales, though soybean sales posted a slight recovery. For the week ending Feb. 12, net corn sales totaled 1.47 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes were 29 percent lower than the previous week but maintained…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 20, 2026

The USDA’s latest export sales report on Friday showed a step back in weekly corn export sales, though soybean sales posted a slight recovery. For the week ending Feb. 12, net corn sales totaled 1.47 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes were 29 percent lower than the previous week but maintained their seasonal highs. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and Taiwan. Total net sales of 65,700 MT for 2026/27 were for Japan.

Physical exports rose 8 percent from the previous week to 1.63 MMT, led by shipments to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. U.S. corn export commitments are running ahead of last year and the five-year average, supported by demand growth from South Korea, Colombia, and Japan. Cumulative exports and commitments are still running 30 percent ahead of the previous season at 62.27 MMT.

U.S. soybean export sales rose sharply after hitting a marketing-year low the previous week. Volumes rose to 798,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/26. China remained the No. 1 buyer, followed by Egypt and Japan. Total net sales of 66,000 MT for 2026/27 were for unknown destinations.

Weekly exports rose 14 percent to 1.29 MMT. China was the top destination, followed by Egypt and Mexico. Total exports and commitments for the current marketing year are still running nearly 19 percent behind the previous season, despite China partially returning to the market. Total commitments reached 83 percent of the USDA’s target.

Soybean meal export sales rose 35 percent from the previous week to 480,900 MT for 2025/26, led by demand from Colombia and Mexico. Total exports and commitments reached 11.48 MMT, up 10 percent from the previous season.

Wheat export sales during the week ending Feb. 12 fell 41 percent from the previous week to 288,000 MT. Volumes fell to a five-week low and were slightly below the five-year average for the week. Mexico was the No. 1 buyer for the week. The Philippines, the Dominican Republic, and Colombia were also among the top five buyers. Net sales of 18,500 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Colombia (14,500 MT) and Mexico (4,000 MT).

Weekly exports fell 44 percent to 322,600 MT. Japan was the top destination for the week, followed by Mexico and the Dominican Republic. Total exports and commitments reached 22.76 MMT, sitting 15 percent higher than a year ago. Commitments are also at 93 percent of the USDA’s target, which is about on par with the previous season and the five-year average.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 20, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady following Thursday’s gains. Crude oil is slightly lower after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Stock futures are lower. CORN Corn futures traded mostly steady on Thursday after losing 0.50 cents to close at $4.36 ¼. Corn has been the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 20, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady following Thursday’s gains. Crude oil is slightly lower after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
Corn futures traded mostly steady on Thursday after losing 0.50 cents to close at $4.36 ¼. Corn has been the lagging market among the grains and oilseeds after failing to climb back into their old trading range last week.

Futures have largely ignored surging crude oil prices, which hit a fresh eight-month high on Thursday. Surging oil prices may help ethanol consumption, though gas prices remain low.

U.S. ethanol production inched higher last week, averaging 1.118 million barrels a day, according to the EIA on Thursday. Production was 3.1 percent higher than the same week last year and a record for the week.

U.S. Census data released on Thursday showed that ethanol exports hit a record 2.18 billion gallons in 2025. That was a record for a second year in a row, increasing 12.6 percent from 2024. Exports have been the primary growth driver for U.S. ethanol production over the past year.

SOYBEANS
May soybeans continued to consolidate at their three-month highs, rising 7 cents to $11.56 on Thursday, bumping up to the upper end of their range.

Technically, soybean futures have been well overbought, but multiple rounds of bullish news have kept the market bulls in the driver’s seat.

Balance sheets for the 2026/27 marketing year released during the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed that the USDA is expecting large volumes of soybean oil used for domestic biofuel production.

Soybean oil used for biofuel is expected to hit a record 17.3 billion pounds, up from the current year’s forecast of 14.8 billion. Significantly larger RVOs from the EPA are expected to continue increasing demand for soybeans and soybean oil.

Soybean oil futures are likely acknowledging the potential demand after surging again on Thursday to fresh highs.

China returning from the Lunar New Year next week could lead to additional soybean purchases after a quiet week.

WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures posted impressive gains on Thursday, with the May contract rallying 14.25 cents higher to $5.66 ¾ a bushel.

Surprisingly, open interest and volume were higher for the session, suggesting actual buying rather than speculative short-covering. Clearing the $5.75 level could open the way for a test of psychological resistance around $6.

Both winter wheat categories were able to clear the 200-day moving average to close out the week.

Drought coverage for winter wheat areas continued to expand over the past week. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that 45 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas were experiencing drought, compared to 22 percent a year ago.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA releases preliminary 2026 acreage numbers

The USDA kicked off its 2026 Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday. Part of the annual meeting includes a preliminary look into the upcoming growing season including acres. The USDA projects corn acreage to fall nearly 5 percent this year to 94 million acres, normalizing from the lofty 98.8 million reported in the previous season. The…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 19, 2026

The USDA kicked off its 2026 Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday. Part of the annual meeting includes a preliminary look into the upcoming growing season including acres.

The USDA projects corn acreage to fall nearly 5 percent this year to 94 million acres, normalizing from the lofty 98.8 million reported in the previous season. The average yield forecast was pinned at 183 bushels per acre, up from the typical February guess of 181 following record yields reported this past season.

The agency left its 2026/27 corn ethanol use unchanged at 5.6 billion bushels based on unchanged motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual usage was reduced to 6 billion bushels, down 200 million from the current season.

Exports were reduced by 200 million bushels to 3.1 billion. U.S. global trade share is expected to decline slightly on larger competitor exports from South America and modest global demand growth.

Meanwhile, soybean acreage is expected to rise 4.7 percent to 85 million acres. The USDA said expectations for higher soybean acres this spring reflect stronger profitability compared to other crops, as well as normal crop rotations.

The USDA acknowledged higher mandates for the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027. While not finalized, the agency is assuming the use of soybean oil for biofuel will rise in 2026/27, increasing the soybean oil price forecast.

The USDA noted that the forecast in future WASDE reports will be evaluated based on the final RVO rule after its release. Soybean exports are expected to recover next season on the assumption of higher shipments to China. However, the share of U.S. exports in the global market is expected to continue its long-term downward trend due to growing South American supplies.

Wheat acreage is seen declining slightly to 45 million, compared to 45.3 million seen last year. The USDA said combined spring and durum wheat acres are expected to shift slightly in the Northern Plains to prioritize soybeans.

Domestic wheat use is expected to remain unchanged in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, export expectations were lowered by 100 million bushels from the current season. The USDA noted that larger competition from Argentina and Australia will likely challenge U.S. shipments. Additionally, supplies from the Northern Hemisphere in Russia, the EU, and Canada will likely increase competition.

Thursday’s acreage numbers serve as a starting point for the USDA’s outlooks moving forward. The agency will issue its first survey-based acreage estimates in its March Prospective Plantings report at the end of next month.

Additionally, the USDA won’t revisit these balance sheets until the May WASDE report.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 19, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar extended its gains overnight and has been advancing since hitting a four-year low in January. Crude oil is also up sharply and posted a fresh 8-month high. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn edged higher on Wednesday following the selloff…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 19, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar extended its gains overnight and has been advancing since hitting a four-year low in January. Crude oil is also up sharply and posted a fresh 8-month high. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
May corn edged higher on Wednesday following the selloff from the previous session. Futures gained a cent to close at $4.36 ¾. Open interest has been steady as traders roll positions over from the March contract.

The USDA’s Ag Outlook forum that kicked off this morning showed the agency’s outlook for 2026 corn plantings fell to 94 million acres, down nearly 5 percent from last year’s 98.8 million. That was the lower than average analyst guess of 95 million acres from a Bloomberg survey.

Corn ending stocks are also projected to tighten next season to 1.837 billion bushels, down 13.6 percent from the current carryout forecast.

Scattered showers are expected to continue in Central Brazil, favoring the developing Safrinha corn crop.

SOYBEANS
Another steady finish to soybeans on Wednesday despite a larger trading day. May soybeans finished 0.25 cents higher to close at $11.49. Futures have been largely consolidating since hitting a three-month high last week.

Soybean oil futures have been leading the way to contract highs on expectations of favorable biofuel quotas from the EPA. Those finalized mandates are expected to be released in the near future.

The EPA signaled in a proposal last year that it would significantly raise biomass diesel blending quotas, heavily favoring domestic soybean oil usage.

The USDA’s commodity outlook showed a 4.7 percent increase in 2026 soybean plantings to 85 million acres. The estimate aligned with the average analyst guess. Higher acreage is expected to raise the ending stocks slightly compared to the current season.

WHEAT
Wheat futures continued to lead the grain complex this week. May Chicago wheat traded another 10 cents higher on Wednesday to close at $5.52 ½. Positive momentum continued overnight amid weather and geopolitical risks.

Prices were contained by the 200-day moving average just above $5.60. That level could continue to contain prices if bullish news fails to take hold.

Warmer weather and high winds are expected for much of the Central and Southern Plains, increasing fire risks.

Peace talks fell through between Russia and Ukraine this week, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged war between the two countries that has already been going on for four years.

U.S. wheat acreage is expected to decline by 0.7 percent this year, with 2026 plantings at 45 million acres. That was higher than market expectations that had expected a slightly larger decline.

The International Grains Council lowered its 2025/26 global wheat stockpile estimate to 282 MMT, down 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The IGC’s initial 2026/27 forecast is calling for a slightly tighter balance sheet due to reduced harvests and higher grain consumption.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Trader PhD survey predicts more soybean acres, strong corn plantings

U.S. crop farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, bringing 2026 acreage expectations into the spotlight. The recent rally in the soybean market in February could help drive more acres to soybeans, but normal crop rotation will likely remain the primary driver. That would bring some acres out of corn after the USDA…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 18, 2026

U.S. crop farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, bringing 2026 acreage expectations into the spotlight. The recent rally in the soybean market in February could help drive more acres to soybeans, but normal crop rotation will likely remain the primary driver. That would bring some acres out of corn after the USDA estimated plantings at a lofty 98.8 million acres in the 2025 growing season.

Trader PhD released its February 2026 acreage survey results with the expectation of corn acres normalizing to some extent this season. Sixty-two percent of respondents said their planting decisions were based on their normal crop rotation. Crop prices were the No. 2 reason (18 percent) for planting decisions.

CORN
Corn acreage is falling 1.4 percent year-over-year to 97.3 million acres. While the overall acreage is lower, plantings are expected to remain heavy compared to previous years.

Midwestern states largely saw a modest shift from corn acreage to soybeans, with the exception of Illinois. Better indemnity payments and yield potential were among the reasons for growing more corn among respondents who didn’t indicate normal crop rotation as the primary reason.

The January Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed farmers still have plenty of corn stored following last year’s harvest. But record corn exports and use for ethanol paint a better outlook for the demand picture compared to other crops.

SOYBEANS
U.S. soybean plantings are seen rising 3.5 percent to just 84.2 million acres in 2026, pulling acres from other crops rather than just corn. Soybean prices have performed substantially better over the past few months on expectations of better demand from China since the U.S. and China entered a trade truce in late October.

The Midwest is expected to drive higher soybean acreage, though Mississippi also could see a larger shift from corn to soybeans. The outlier was Kansas, which saw a shift from soybeans and wheat acreage to corn.

Basis levels remain stronger in the Eastern Ag Belt and along the Mississippi River due to lower exports to China.

WHEAT
All wheat acreage is seen falling 7.3 percent to 42.2 million acres, the lowest on record for data going back to 1919. U.S. wheat acreage has been trending lower over the past decade. U.S. wheat has struggled to compete in the export market among other global competitors, easily leading to higher stocks.

The survey showed a sharp reduction in plantings in winter wheat areas, which counters the higher estimate from the USDA’s Winter Wheat Plantings report in January. Spring wheat plantings in North Dakota were seen 18 percent lower than last year. Poor crop prices were likely a driver. Among respondents who said they decreased their wheat acreage significantly, crop prices were the primary reason for this year’s planting decisions.

Cotton was omitted from the survey due to minimal responses in past surveys that led to inconclusive results. Trader PhD will conduct another producer survey ahead of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report at the end of March.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 18, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its move higher. Crude oil rose sharply overnight. Stock futures were also higher. CORN Corn futures retreated from last week’s gains on Tuesday, falling 6.25 cents to $4.35 ¼ for the May contract. Traders continued to roll positions…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 18, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its move higher. Crude oil rose sharply overnight. Stock futures were also higher.

CORN
Corn futures retreated from last week’s gains on Tuesday, falling 6.25 cents to $4.35 ¼ for the May contract. Traders continued to roll positions over between the March and May contracts.

Disappointing price action on Tuesday may be suggesting money managers are electing to hold onto shorts leading up to first notice day.

The USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum will be held on Thursday and Friday, with the agency releasing its preliminary balance sheets for the 2026/27 season. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the USDA to predict corn acres at 95 million, down from last year’s final estimate of 98.8 million.

Whatever numbers the USDA releases tomorrow will likely change in the March Prospective Plantings report. Cobank expects a larger reduction in corn plantings to 94 million, while soybean acres rebound to 86 million.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures held onto their gains to start the week after trading steadily higher and closing just below $11.50 on the May contract. Prices hit a fresh three-month high overnight, as export inspection data and crush data on Tuesday exceeded expectations.

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 221.6 million bushels of soybeans in January, up 10.6 percent year-over-year, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association on Tuesday. Year-to-date crushings for the season are running 11 percent ahead of the previous marketing year.

Soybean oil futures have been surging over the past month and a half despite rising soybean oil inventories. May soybean oil posted fresh contract highs again overnight. The prospect of higher demand likely has prices pushing to new highs.

Sources told Reuters that the EPA could send proposed 2026 blending quotas to the White House this week, which aligns with the expectation of the final rule being published by the end of March.

Tomorrow’s USDA Ag Outlook numbers are expected to show 2026 soybean planting forecast at 85 million acres, up from 81.2 million last year.

WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures retested the 100-day moving average again on Tuesday. Prices closed below the level but recovered a fair amount of losses to finish 6 cents lower at $5.42 ¼.

The recovery extended into the overnight session, with prices mostly reversing yesterday’s losses so far. Prices may continue to face pressure closer to $5.60, which is just below the 200-day moving average.

Wheat export inspections continued at a decent pace last week. Export inspections fell 35 percent from the previous week to 375,400 MT. However, volumes were still about 50 percent higher than the same week last year. Accumulated shipments remain 19 percent ahead of last year.

Tomorrow’s USDA Ag Outlook numbers are expected to show 2026 wheat planting at 44.7 million, down from 45.3 last year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 17, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday morning following the extended holiday weekend. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher. Crude oil is mostly steady. Stock futures are lower. CORN May corn is starting the week under pressure from wheat and the rally in the U.S. dollar. Futures had traded higher for a second week after…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 17, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday morning following the extended holiday weekend. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher. Crude oil is mostly steady. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
May corn is starting the week under pressure from wheat and the rally in the U.S. dollar. Futures had traded higher for a second week after gaining a modest 3.25 cents by Friday’s close.

Prices could still face pressure after failing to climb back in their old trading range for a second time last week. Current resistance is around $4.44.

Strong export demand remains a highlight for the market. U.S. corn prices have been very competitive compared to global competitors, increasing its share in the marketplace.

Brazil’s safrinha corn planting reached 46 percent complete in Mato Grosso. Progress was below the five-year average but remained slightly above last year’s pace.

SOYBEANS
May soybean futures are trying to hold onto key levels to start this week after climbing another 19.75 cents last week. Optimism over demand from China kept the bulls in charge.

Managed money dramatically extends its net long position. Funds were buyers of nearly 95,000 contracts in the latest Commitment of Traders report, bringing the total position to a net long of 123,000 contracts.

The Brazilian soybean harvest continued to progress above year-ago levels last week, with 50 percent of the crop harvested.

Weather models turned drier for Southern Argentina again. Buenos Aires is expected to receive below-average precipitation for the next 2 weeks. The Rosario Board of Trade said rainfall over the next 10 to 15 days will be crucial. Issues could go unnoticed with the large crop coming out of Brazil.

WHEAT
Wheat futures pushed sharply lower overnight, extending Friday’s selloff. May KC wheat had traded above the 200-day moving average last week but failed to hold above the key level.

Futures had an impressive rally to multi-month highs, driven by speculative short-covering. Gains were likely capped by bearish fundamentals weighing on the complex.

Russian-based research firm SovEcon raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 85.9 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from the previous estimate.

India announced on Friday that it will allow 2.5 MMT of wheat to be exported. The move was to appease farmers in the country who have been protesting the recent trade agreement with the U.S.

France’s winter wheat crop conditions are at a three-year high, helping production rebound from the previous year.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.