The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output estimate was cut to 179 million metric tons (MMT) from 180.9 MMT as was last reported Sept. 5. The new estimate from Safras & Mercado, if realized, would result in a 4 percent increase in output year-over-year.

This season, planted area is estimated at 119.4 million acres, compared to 117.6 million acres in 2024/25. Planting is estimated to be about 75 percent complete, according to consultancy firm AgRural.

Overall, the weather has been mostly favorable for crop establishment in Brazil, though precipitation has been below normal so far this season.

Despite these declines in output for this marketing year, a record soybean harvest is expected for 2026. The total supply in 2026 is expected to increase by 6 percent to 184.3 MMT, with demand at 171.4 MMT, which is also a 2 percent increase from last year.

Soybean exports from Brazil are also now estimated to be 109 MMT, 2 percent higher than the 107 MMT expected for 2025. This is down slightly from a previous estimate of 111 MMT due to China’s reemergence as a buyer of U.S. soybeans. The 2025 import forecast is currently at 800,000 metric tons. There is no import forecast for 2026.

Brazilian soybean crush is projected at 58.5 MMT for 2025 and is forecasted at 59.5 MMT for 2026.

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