Tag: Rice

USDA reduced rice export forecast to three-year low

Rough rice futures traded about a percent higher on Tuesday after rebounding from their intraday lows to close at $11.22 per cwt. Prices have attempted to recover over the past week after falling to a three-week low late last month. The USDA left the U.S. rice carryout for the current season unchanged in its March…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 10, 2026

Rough rice futures traded about a percent higher on Tuesday after rebounding from their intraday lows to close at $11.22 per cwt. Prices have attempted to recover over the past week after falling to a three-week low late last month.

The USDA left the U.S. rice carryout for the current season unchanged in its March WASDE report on Tuesday. The agency reduced its rice import forecast by 2 million cwt, though a reduction in the export forecast offset the increase. The 2025/26 ending stocks forecast was left unchanged at 50.3 million cwt.

The latest USDA export data showed that U.S. rice exports and commitments are running 21 percent lower than the previous year as of March 5. Additionally, commitments are at 70 percent of the USDA’s current target, substantially lower than the five-year average.

Projected world ending stocks were raised by 0.7 million tons to 191.5 million, a record if realized.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Rice futures pause rally amid bearish fundamentals

Rough rice futures pulled back this week but have been trading in a strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. March rough rice traded as high as $11.34 per cwt this week before consolidating gains. Much of the recent rally has been driven largely by speculative short-covering. The market experienced a short squeeze after…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 11, 2026

Rough rice futures pulled back this week but have been trading in a strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. March rough rice traded as high as $11.34 per cwt this week before consolidating gains. Much of the recent rally has been driven largely by speculative short-covering. The market experienced a short squeeze after a successful test of their December contract lows.

Bearish fundamentals may continue to weigh on the rice market. The USDA’s February WASDE report showed a slightly more burdensome supply and demand outlook compared to January, driven by weak exports. All rice exports were cut by 2 million cwt to 87 million, which is forecast to fall by nearly 4 percent year-over-year and the lowest since the 2022/23 season.

Total U.S. exports and commitments are running about 22 percent behind the previous season and well below the five-year average, according to the latest USDA export sales data.

With imports lowered by 1 million cwt, total ending stocks were raised to 50.3 million cwt, up 1 million from January. The stocks-to-use ratio was raised to 19.5 percent, continuing to show a burdensome supply and demand outlook.

Global ending stocks were raised to 190.9 million metric tons (MMT), up 0.5 MMT from January. Stockpiles are expected to decline year-over-year but remain the second-largest on record.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Rice futures steady after USDA trims U.S. stocks

U.S. rice futures rebounded from their intraday lows on Monday following the USDA’s WASDE report release. March rough rice traded slightly higher to close at $10.25 per hundredweight (cwt). Prices have been trying to recover from last month’s contract lows. Burdensome supply and demand fundamentals have pressured the market due to rising U.S. supplies and…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 12, 2026

U.S. rice futures rebounded from their intraday lows on Monday following the USDA’s WASDE report release. March rough rice traded slightly higher to close at $10.25 per hundredweight (cwt). Prices have been trying to recover from last month’s contract lows. Burdensome supply and demand fundamentals have pressured the market due to rising U.S. supplies and lower demand.

The USDA’s WASDE report on Monday showed that 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks were reduced to 49.3 million cwt, down 3.6 million. Production was reduced by 0.6 million cwt to 206.7 million.

On the demand side, exports were reduced by 3 million cwt to 89 million. However, that was offset by a 5-million-cwt increase in domestic usage.

The global ending stocks forecast was raised by 1.5 million metric tons to 190.3 million. That was due to higher supplies in China, Japan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Improving global supplies will likely keep a lid on prices for the short term.

The USDA reported that U.S. rough rice stocks as of Dec. 1 totaled 137 cwt, down 2 percent from the same period last year, according to the agency’s Rice Stocks report.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA lowers rice export forecast as sales lag

The USDA’s December WASDE report released on Tuesday showed a slightly more burdensome U.S. rice balance sheet. The agency lowered its U.S. import forecast by 1 million cwt due to a sluggish import pace. However, exports were reduced by 2 million cwt due to sluggish sales of rough rice to Mexico and other Latin American…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 9, 2025

The USDA’s December WASDE report released on Tuesday showed a slightly more burdensome U.S. rice balance sheet. The agency lowered its U.S. import forecast by 1 million cwt due to a sluggish import pace.

However, exports were reduced by 2 million cwt due to sluggish sales of rough rice to Mexico and other Latin American countries. Lowered exports led to an increased ending stocks forecast of 52.9 million cwt, bringing the stocks-to-use ratio to 20.3 percent, which was slightly behind last season.

Domestic supplies are expected to outweigh U.S. demand and exports this season, which have led to multi-year low prices. January rough rice futures traded steady on Tuesday, closing at $10.09 per cwt. Last week, prices fell to their lowest since February 2019 on a continuous chart basis.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Rice futures lowest since February 2019 amid global competition

U.S. rice futures maintained their negative pressure to start the month amid bearish fundamentals. January rough rice traded one percent lower on Friday to $9.98 per cwt. Prices hit new contract lows this week of $9.83 per cwt. That was the lowest price since February 2019 on a continuous chart basis. The U.S. rice market…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 5, 2025

U.S. rice futures maintained their negative pressure to start the month amid bearish fundamentals. January rough rice traded one percent lower on Friday to $9.98 per cwt. Prices hit new contract lows this week of $9.83 per cwt. That was the lowest price since February 2019 on a continuous chart basis.

The U.S. rice market has faced multiple headwinds over the past year, namely higher domestic production. The USDA currently forecasts exports to rise during the current season, but a slow sales pace is challenging that narrative.

The latest USDA export sales data released on Thursday showed that total export sales and commitments as of Oct. 30 reached 1.03 million metric tons, down nearly 21 percent from the previous season. Exports are also at the second-slowest pace out of the past five years amid strong global competition.

India is forecast to produce a record crop for its 10th consecutive season, according to the USDA. Consequently, exports from the country are expected to surge.

The USDA reported that rice stocks in California as of Oct. 1 totaled 2.52 million cwt, down 52 percent from the same time last year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA lowers U.S. rice ending stocks in November

Rough rice futures have been consolidating for nearly the past month after falling to mulit-year lows this fall. January rice traded nearly two percent higher this week to $10.50 per cwt. Futures on a continuous basis had traded to their lowest since March 2016. Prices welcomed friendlier supply and demand data from the USDA’s November…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 14, 2025

Rough rice futures have been consolidating for nearly the past month after falling to mulit-year lows this fall. January rice traded nearly two percent higher this week to $10.50 per cwt. Futures on a continuous basis had traded to their lowest since March 2016. Prices welcomed friendlier supply and demand data from the USDA’s November WASDE report on Friday.

The agency lowered the 2025/26 U.S. rice ending stocks forecast to 51.9 million cwt, compared to 53.4 million in the September report. The increase was due to a downward revision in the production estimate. However, demand was left unchanged. Still, the U.S. carryout remained the second-highest out of the past 10 years.

The global balance sheet tightened slightly. Ending stocks were lowered to 186.72 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 187.27 MMT in September. The reduction was due to lower supplies in Thailand, Pakistan, and Senegal.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Global supply glut weighing on rice prices

Rice prices in Asia have fallen to the lowest in a decade, as global production is expected to hit a record 556.4 million tons and importers hold ample stocks. The downturn has weighed on U.S. rice futures, which dropped to their lowest level since 2016.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 6, 2025

Global rice prices have been in a freefall for much of the past year amid ample supplies and declining demand.

The benchmark price in Asia fell to $351 per ton on Oct. 22, marking a 10-year low, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. The bearish trend in Asia is expected to persist, a former analyst at the International Rice Research Institute told Bloomberg.

Global rice output is forecast to reach a record 556.4 million metric tons during the 2025/26 season, according to the United Nations. Some importers have enough rice inventories to cover three to five months of consumption.

Weak global prices are impacting U.S. returns. This week, continuous rice futures fell to their lowest since March 2016.

U.S. rice exports had been running at a three-year low before the government shutdown paused export reporting.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Global rice prices hit 10-year low on rising supplies

Global rice prices have come under pressure as production climbs to record levels. The United Nations projects world output at 556.4 million metric tons, supported by strong U.S. yields and ample rainfall in India. U.S. inventories are set to remain the highest in more than a decade through 2025/26.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

October 10, 2025

U.S. and global rice prices have experienced significant pressure for much of the past year amid rising supplies and lower demand.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global rice production is expected to hit a record 556.4 million metric tons this season, boosting stockpiles. Strong U.S. production and above-average rainfall in India helped drive the forecast higher.

U.S. stockpiles are expected to remain elevated in the 2025/26 season after rising to the highest in more than a decade.

Bloomberg reported that the Philippines plans to continue a suspension on rice imports to help lift domestic prices.

Thai white rice, the global benchmark, fell to the lowest since September 2015 this week. Rice costs have been falling gradually after surging to a 15-year high in 2024.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA raises US, global rice supply outlook

The September WASDE raised U.S. rice ending stocks on weaker exports and softer domestic use, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 20.5 percent. Strong domestic and global supplies continued to push futures to fresh multi-year lows.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 15, 2025

The U.S. rice balance sheet came in on the bearish side on Friday, leading to prices posting fresh lows.

The USDA raised rice ending stocks for 2025/26 to 53.4 million hundredweight (cwt), up 8.8 million from the August report. Domestic supplies were raised on higher beginning stocks, lower exports, and reduced domestic use.

That brought the stocks-to-use ratio to 20.5 percent, compared to last month’s 16.9 percent.

Global ending stocks were raised from last month due to an increase in supplies for the U.S. and Pakistan.

November rice futures traded 1.4 percent lower on Friday to $11.50 per cwt, the lowest close in over four years.

Relatively strong production and lower exports have been the driving factors behind weaker prices over the past year. Higher global supplies during the 2024/25 have also been a driver as production recovered from adverse conditions. Ending stocks are expected to tighten up in 2025/26.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.