Global supply glut weighing on rice prices

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Global rice prices have been in a freefall for much of the past year amid ample supplies and declining demand. 

The benchmark price in Asia fell to $351 per ton on Oct. 22, marking a 10-year low, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. The bearish trend in Asia is expected to persist, a former analyst at the International Rice Research Institute told Bloomberg.

Global rice output is forecast to reach a record 556.4 million metric tons during the 2025/26 season, according to the United Nations. Some importers have enough rice inventories to cover three to five months of consumption. 

Weak global prices are impacting U.S. returns. This week, continuous rice futures fell to their lowest since March 2016. 

U.S. rice exports had been running at a three-year low before the government shutdown paused export reporting. 

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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