Rough rice futures have been consolidating for nearly the past month after falling to mulit-year lows this fall. January rice traded nearly two percent higher this week to $10.50 per cwt. Futures on a continuous basis had traded to their lowest since March 2016. Prices welcomed friendlier supply and demand data from the USDA’s November WASDE report on Friday.

The agency lowered the 2025/26 U.S. rice ending stocks forecast to 51.9 million cwt, compared to 53.4 million in the September report. The increase was due to a downward revision in the production estimate. However, demand was left unchanged. Still, the U.S. carryout remained the second-highest out of the past 10 years.

The global balance sheet tightened slightly. Ending stocks were lowered to 186.72 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 187.27 MMT in September. The reduction was due to lower supplies in Thailand, Pakistan, and Senegal.

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