Tag: Lean Hogs

Lean hogs turn quiet on Thursday following reversal day

Lean hog futures continued to test major support levels on Thursday. June hogs traded inside yesterday’s range and closed with marginal gains of 17 cents to close at $104.30 per cwt. Thursday’s price action was slightly disappointing following Wednesday’s reversal day. A failure to post a notable move higher the rest of this week and…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 26, 2026

Lean hog futures continued to test major support levels on Thursday. June hogs traded inside yesterday’s range and closed with marginal gains of 17 cents to close at $104.30 per cwt. Thursday’s price action was slightly disappointing following Wednesday’s reversal day. A failure to post a notable move higher the rest of this week and early next week could cause additional pressure.

The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday proved to be neutral for the hog market. The March 1 hog herd was seen at 74.32 million head, up 0.4 percent from the same quarter last year. That compared to a 1 percent increase expected by a Bloomberg survey.

The breeding herd was lower than expected, with animals used for breeding down 1.5 percent from a year ago at 5.89 million head. Meanwhile, the market herd rose 0.6 percent to 68.43 million head.

What stood out in the market herd numbers was the number of hogs over 180 pounds, which rose 2.5 percent year-over-year. The report seemed to be signaling a healthy supply of market-ready animals, which was the second-highest for the quarter out of the past five years.

The number of sows that farrowed decreased by 1.5 percent to 2.79 million head. That compared to a 1.7 percent increase expected by the market.

U.S. producers expect nearly 2.9 million sows to farrow during the second quarter, up slightly from the actual farrowings during the same time frame last year, but down 2 percent from the same period in 2024.

The market could view today’s report as bearish for the short term. Lower sow farrowings will also be overshadowed by higher pigs per litter leading to a larger pig crop.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Lean hog futures retreat from recent highs

Lean hog futures retreated from their weekly highs on Thursday as technical selling outweighed fundamentals. June lean hogs traded $1 lower to close at $108.17 per cwt, hitting the lowest in about three weeks. Prices faced pressure at resistance areas earlier this week, leading to additional selling. Selling took prices below their recent range today,…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

March 12, 2026

Lean hog futures retreated from their weekly highs on Thursday as technical selling outweighed fundamentals. June lean hogs traded $1 lower to close at $108.17 per cwt, hitting the lowest in about three weeks. Prices faced pressure at resistance areas earlier this week, leading to additional selling. Selling took prices below their recent range today, today’s break below the $108.35 area cause additional pressure heading into the weekend and next week.

Meat packers have been more aggressive in their procurement efforts recently. Cash hogs prices have been pushing higher, with the CME Lean Hog Index rising to a four-month high this week. Pork demand has been largely good for the most part, though export sales hit a marketing-year low last week.

Higher energy prices could be pressuring livestock futures. Consumers may feel the pinch and reduce meat demand if the war in Iran spurs real inflation concerns. So far, wholesale pork prices have held above year-ago levels. The USDA’s cutout index was trading 24 cents higher at midday on Thursday at $98.65 per cwt.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Lean hogs taking a stab at contract highs after selloff

Lean hog futures posted a considerable bounce over the past week on technical buying. June lean hogs traded $1.70 higher on Tuesday, surging to $110 per cwt. Prices have retraced about 75 percent of their losses since finding support above $104. Much of that selloff was driven by speculative profit-taking after the rally stalled out…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 25, 2026

Lean hog futures posted a considerable bounce over the past week on technical buying. June lean hogs traded $1.70 higher on Tuesday, surging to $110 per cwt. Prices have retraced about 75 percent of their losses since finding support above $104. Much of that selloff was driven by speculative profit-taking after the rally stalled out the first week of February. Prices could still retest their contract highs before making another move lower.

Cash hog prices have been steadily rising over the past month. The CME Lean Hog Index rose to $88.35 this week, up $8 since mid-January. Buyers have been fairly aggressive moving through February to secure supplies. Wholesale pork values have been stagnant over the past month and a half, likely due to a fair amount of pork hitting the market.

Pork in cold storage at the end of January totaled 410 million pounds, up 0.8 percent year-over-year, according to the USDA on Tuesday. Supplies rose above year-ago levels for the first time since April 2023.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Monthly Meat Trade – December 2025

U.S. pork exports totaled 257,800 MT in December, down 3.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau released this week. Mexico remained the top destination during the month, accounting for 113,800 MT or 44 percent of the total. China was the No. 2 destination, followed by Japan…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 24, 2026

U.S. pork exports totaled 257,800 MT in December, down 3.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau released this week. Mexico remained the top destination during the month, accounting for 113,800 MT or 44 percent of the total. China was the No. 2 destination, followed by Japan and South Korea.

Cumulative shipments for 2025 reached 2.94 million metric tons (MMT), declining 2.3 percent from the previous year. Volumes to Mexico continued to grow, rising 7 percent year-over-year. However, that was offset by declines in shipments to China (21 percent), Japan (8 percent), South Korea (4 percent), and Canada (15 percent). The U.S. did see continued demand for pork exports to Central America.

U.S. beef exports totaled 98,600 MT in December, down 10 percent year-over-year. Total shipments for 2025 reached 1.14 MMT, down 12 percent from the previous year and hitting the lowest since 2017.

Tighter domestic beef supplies and higher prices limited the volume of beef shipped to international markets. Through 2025, shipments to South Korea, the largest U.S. beef export market, were fractionally higher than the same period a year ago. However, several key export markets saw declines over that period, including Japan (2 percent), Mexico (10 percent), Canada (5 percent), Taiwan (6 percent), and China (67 percent).

The USDA forecasts beef exports to decline 6 percent in 2026 as supplies are expected to remain tight and prices are forecast to remain elevated. Demand for higher-value beef will continue to insulate some U.S. exports in key markets.

U.S. beef imports in December totaled 461 million pounds, up 15.5 percent year-over-year. That was a record for the month and the highest volume since May. Total beef imports for the year reached 5.47 billion pounds, rising 18 percent from 2024 and hitting a new record. Higher shipments were led by increased imports from Brazil (up 35 percent), Argentina (30 percent), Nicaragua (27 percent), Australia (26 percent), Uruguay (20 percent), and Mexico (19 percent).

Tight supplies, particularly for lean processing beef due to reduced domestic cow slaughter, resulted in the United States being an attractive market for global exporters. Established tariff rate quotas (TRQ) were largely filled in 2025, resulting in significant volumes entering the United States at elevated, out-of-quota tariff rates.

Beef imports are forecast to be 3 percent higher in 2026, as demand for imported lean processing beef is expected to continue. TRQ availability has also been expanded for some key trading partners, including Argentina, which should improve the terms of trade for a portion of imports entering the United States.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hog futures pause selling above support levels

Lean hog futures traded higher for a second day this week as the market attempts to put the brakes on the recent selloff. April lean hogs traded 25 cents higher to $92.55 per cwt. Prices had traded as low as $91.12 last week, stopping short of support areas around $90-$91. The summer hog contracts were…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 18, 2026

Lean hog futures traded higher for a second day this week as the market attempts to put the brakes on the recent selloff. April lean hogs traded 25 cents higher to $92.55 per cwt. Prices had traded as low as $91.12 last week, stopping short of support areas around $90-$91.

The summer hog contracts were more lively in their rebound this week. The June contract traded 75 cents higher on Wednesday to close at $106.60. Prices avoided a test of the $104 support level.

The CFTC’s latest Commitment of Traders report showed that money managers increased their net bullish bets by 4,424 contracts during the week ending Feb. 10. That brought the total position to a net long of 133,280 contracts. The selling over the past week likely took many of those positions negative to where further selling could lead to additional long liquidation from speculators.

Cash hog prices continued their steady climb in February since hitting the lowest in about a year in January. The CME Lean Hog Index fell below year-ago levels over the past week but remained above the five-year average. Packers remain in the driver’s seat, as they have been well-supplied to meet current demand. Hog weights have been a factor, with average weights creeping up to 292 pounds last week.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Lean hogs slide to 1-month low on profit taking

Lean hog futures sold off for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday amid continued profit-taking. April lean hogs traded $1.60 lower to close at $93.90 per cwt., hitting the lowest level in about a month. The break below the $95 level drove additional technical selling on Tuesday. The next major support area is likely the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 11, 2026

Lean hog futures sold off for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday amid continued profit-taking. April lean hogs traded $1.60 lower to close at $93.90 per cwt., hitting the lowest level in about a month. The break below the $95 level drove additional technical selling on Tuesday. The next major support area is likely the $90 level.

Despite the sharp decline in futures, cash hogs were sharply higher on Wednesday, as packers stepped up their procurement efforts. The Iowa/Minnesota and Western Cornbelt were $3.43 higher with a weighted average of $88.35 per cwt. The CME Lean Hog Index showed that cash hog prices remained above year-ago levels despite recent weakness.

Pork prices continued to chop sideways this week, pinning cutout values below year-ago levels. There still seems to be decent demand for U.S. pork despite weaker prices.

The USDA raised its 2026 pork production forecast to 28.29 billion pounds in its February WASDE report on Tuesday, up 60 million from the January forecast. The increase was due to higher slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights for the first half of the year based on slaughter data.

The export forecast was also raised to a record 7.135 billion pounds due to larger available supplies and improved competitiveness.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Lean hogs pause rally after new contract highs

Lean hog futures were mixed on Friday, as positive momentum stalled out ahead of the weekend. April lean hogs traded 40 cents lower to $97.97 per cwt. Prices initially surged at the start of the session in an attempt to test Wednesday’s contract high of $99.80 before reversing those gains. Still, futures closed $2.80 higher…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 6, 2026

Lean hog futures were mixed on Friday, as positive momentum stalled out ahead of the weekend. April lean hogs traded 40 cents lower to $97.97 per cwt. Prices initially surged at the start of the session in an attempt to test Wednesday’s contract high of $99.80 before reversing those gains. Still, futures closed $2.80 higher on the week.

Volatility has been rising in the hog market again since breaking above their September highs. Friday’s reversal may lead to additional profit-taking, as prices are due for a pullback. Volatility may need to simmer before the market takes another stab at new contract highs.

To reiterate from previous analysis, April hogs have had no meaningful correction since mid-November. The substantially large long position built up by the funds does put the market at risk of profit-taking for the short term.

Federally inspected hog slaughter is estimated at 2.593 million head, up 3.7 percent from the previous week. However, year-to-date slaughter is running 2.7 percent behind last year.

Cash hog prices kicked off the new year on a softer note, with prices signaling a well-supplied market for the near-term. Prices have improved over the past month, as packers became more aggressive to secure supplies. The CME Lean Hog Index reached $86.38 per cwt on Friday.

Wholesale pork prices chopped sideways this week. The USDA pork cutout finished at $93.77 per cwt on Friday, down 45 cents from the previous week. Pork values slipped below year-ago levels this week but have held above the five-year average.

U.S. pork export sales during the week ending Jan. 29 totaled 35,100 metric tons (MT), down from 56,000 MT the previous week. Pork exports and commitments are up since the start of the marketing year, totaling 427,900 MT, up 15 percent year-over-year. Commitments are also running at the fastest pace since 2021.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hogs look for new highs out of the gate Monday

Lean hog futures rallied out of the gate on Monday, with deferred contracts posting fresh contract highs. April hogs traded $1.47 higher to close at $96.62 per cwt. Prices had traded higher earlier in the session but ended the day just above mid-range. June summer hogs traded $1.77 higher to settle at $109.70 after posting…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 2, 2026

Lean hog futures rallied out of the gate on Monday, with deferred contracts posting fresh contract highs. April hogs traded $1.47 higher to close at $96.62 per cwt. Prices had traded higher earlier in the session but ended the day just above mid-range. June summer hogs traded $1.77 higher to settle at $109.70 after posting fresh contract highs just above $110.

Monday’s surge came after the hog market experienced pressure leading into the weekend. Macro commodity selling spilled over into the hog market on Friday, though prices were overdue for some pressure after hitting fresh contract highs during the week.

Fund buying continued in the hog market through the week ending Jan. 27. Money managers were net buyers of 15,361 lean hog contracts during the period. The buying was driven by funds adding to their long position.

April hogs have had no meaningful correction since mid-November. The substantially large long position built up by the funds does put the market at risk of profit-taking for the short term. This week’s data suggests that a correction could welcome buyers rather than deter them.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Monthly Meat Trade – November 2025

U.S. pork exports totaled 254,000 metric tons (MT) in November, down 6.6 percent from the same period last year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau released this week. Mexico was the top destination during the month, accounting for 111,000 MT or 43 percent of the total. China was the No. 2…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 30, 2026

U.S. pork exports totaled 254,000 metric tons (MT) in November, down 6.6 percent from the same period last year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau released this week. Mexico was the top destination during the month, accounting for 111,000 MT or 43 percent of the total. China was the No. 2 destination, as the country increased its buying through the summer and fall.

Year-to-date shipments for the calendar year (January-November) totaled 2.68 million metric tons (MMT), down nearly 3 percent from the same period last year. Volumes were higher for countries such as Mexico and other areas of Central America. But those volumes were offset by lower exports to China, Japan, and South Korea.

U.S. beef exports continued to drop in November amid tight supplies and limited demand from China. Shipments during the month totaled 88,000 MT, down 19 percent from the previous year. Japan was the largest importer of U.S. beef, followed by South Korea. Year-to-date shipments of beef totaled 1.04 MMT, falling nearly 12 percent from the same period last year.

Exports are lower across most major buyers of U.S. beef, except for South Korea, where shipments are up about 1 percent. The largest percentage decline is for China, which is sitting 64 percent lower than a year ago. China has yet to renew export registrations for U.S. beef processing facilities, which had been a main driver of lower exports last year. Tight domestic beef supplies have also been a key factor, as record prices drove importers to other countries, such as Brazil and Australia.

U.S. beef imports during the same period totaled 5 billion pounds, running 18 percent above 2024 and a record. Australia has been the No. 1 source of beef imports in 2025, accounting for 24 percent of total shipments. Canada was the second-largest origin, followed by Brazil and Mexico.

The U.S. Census Bureau will issue December trade data on Feb. 19. Data reporting should return to its normal schedule in March.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hog futures recover amid strong cash, export sales

Lean hog futures continued their overall positive trade following Wednesday’s profit-taking session. The most active April lean hog chart traded a modest 30 cents higher to $95.45 per cwt. Thursday’s modest recovery came after hog futures gapped open lower yesterday following fresh contract highs. Prices could struggle to trade higher on Friday, though the trend…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 29, 2026

Lean hog futures continued their overall positive trade following Wednesday’s profit-taking session. The most active April lean hog chart traded a modest 30 cents higher to $95.45 per cwt. Thursday’s modest recovery came after hog futures gapped open lower yesterday following fresh contract highs. Prices could struggle to trade higher on Friday, though the trend remains bullish.

Futures have largely ignored lackluster pork cutout values and cash prices over the past couple of months. The USDA pork carcass index traded $1.62 lower on Thursday to $93.43 despite midday gains.

Cash hog prices have had a solid run this week, recovering from recent lows. Processors have been much more aggressive in their procurement efforts to move hogs. The CME Lean Hog Index rose to $85.22 per cwt on Thursday, reaching the highest level since late November.

U.S. pork exports kicked off the new year on a slightly stronger note. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed that pork sales surged to 56,000 metric tons (MT) during the week ending Jan. 22. Mexico was the top buyer for the week (28,300 MT), while China also stepped in with larger purchases (15,900 MT).

Accumulated exports are running 24 percent ahead of the same period last year. Mexico has been leading shipments, accounting for about half total exports.

U.S. Census data on Thursday showed that pork exports totaled 254,000 MT in November, down 6.6 percent from 2024. Mexico was the largest destination for the month. China was the No. 2 destination, as the country increased its buying through the summer and fall.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Lean hogs surge to new highs amid tight supplies

Lean hog futures kicked off the week on a higher note, extending last week’s rally to new contract highs. April lean hogs traded more than 50 cents higher on Monday, topping $97 per cwt before erasing some gains. Summer June hogs saw similar gains to $109. The hog market has had a bullish run since…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 26, 2026

Lean hog futures kicked off the week on a higher note, extending last week’s rally to new contract highs. April lean hogs traded more than 50 cents higher on Monday, topping $97 per cwt before erasing some gains. Summer June hogs saw similar gains to $109.

The hog market has had a bullish run since hitting multi-month lows in November. Technically, futures are overbought and could see some cooling back to their previous highs from September. Commitment of traders data suggests that the market could extend gains further even if the market retraces.

To reiterate previous analysis following the bearish September Hogs and Pigs report, U.S. pork supplies remain tight. Pork cold storage inventories totaled 391 million pounds at the end of December, down 2 percent year-over-year. Inventories remained at the lowest level in about two decades amid slightly lower production and stable demand.

U.S. hog slaughter totaled 11.5 million head in December, up 8 percent year-over-year. Year-to-date slaughter reached 128.2 million head, falling 1.1 percent from last year. Live hog weights were 2 pounds higher than a year ago at 293 pounds. Higher slaughter weights helped offset lower pig slaughter, with total production in 2025 sitting less than a percent lower than a year ago.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA raises 2026 beef, pork production outlooks

The USDA raised its meat production forecasts for 2026 in its January WASDE report on Monday. Beef production for 2026 was raised to 25.802 billion pounds, up from 25.79 billion in December. The agency cited heavier dressed weights, which are expected to offset lower cattle slaughter in the second half of the year. The USDA’s…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 12, 2026

The USDA raised its meat production forecasts for 2026 in its January WASDE report on Monday.

Beef production for 2026 was raised to 25.802 billion pounds, up from 25.79 billion in December. The agency cited heavier dressed weights, which are expected to offset lower cattle slaughter in the second half of the year.

The USDA’s cattle inventory report at the end of the month will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement this year, as well as intentions to retain heifers for breeding.

The beef import forecast was raised for 2025 based on recent trade data. Imports were also raised for 2026 due to expectations of higher shipments from Australia and New Zealand. Beef exports were lowered for 2025 and 2026 based on recent trade data and expectations of higher global competition.

Pork production for 2026 was raised to 28.23 billion pounds, 740 million pounds more than the December forecast. The upward revision was due to higher production during the first half of the year due to a higher pig crop reported in 2025. Production for the second half was also raised based on farrowing intentions reported for the first half of this year.

The USDA will release its final slaughter and production data for 2025 later this month to reflect pork and beef production.

Pork exports were lowered for 2025 due to the current shipment pace. However, exports were raised for 2026 to reflect higher domestic production and improved competitiveness.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.