The USDA raised its meat production forecasts for 2026 in its January WASDE report on Monday.

Beef production for 2026 was raised to 25.802 billion pounds, up from 25.79 billion in December. The agency cited heavier dressed weights, which are expected to offset lower cattle slaughter in the second half of the year.

The USDA’s cattle inventory report at the end of the month will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement this year, as well as intentions to retain heifers for breeding.

The beef import forecast was raised for 2025 based on recent trade data. Imports were also raised for 2026 due to expectations of higher shipments from Australia and New Zealand. Beef exports were lowered for 2025 and 2026 based on recent trade data and expectations of higher global competition.

Pork production for 2026 was raised to 28.23 billion pounds, 740 million pounds more than the December forecast. The upward revision was due to higher production during the first half of the year due to a higher pig crop reported in 2025. Production for the second half was also raised based on farrowing intentions reported for the first half of this year.

The USDA will release its final slaughter and production data for 2025 later this month to reflect pork and beef production.

Pork exports were lowered for 2025 due to the current shipment pace. However, exports were raised for 2026 to reflect higher domestic production and improved competitiveness.
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