Hog futures recover amid strong cash, export sales

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Lean hog futures continued their overall positive trade following Wednesday’s profit-taking session. The most active April lean hog chart traded a modest 30 cents higher to $95.45 per cwt. Thursday’s modest recovery came after hog futures gapped open lower yesterday following fresh contract highs. Prices could struggle to trade higher on Friday, though the trend remains bullish.

Futures have largely ignored lackluster pork cutout values and cash prices over the past couple of months. The USDA pork carcass index traded $1.62 lower on Thursday to $93.43 despite midday gains.

Cash hog prices have had a solid run this week, recovering from recent lows. Processors have been much more aggressive in their procurement efforts to move hogs. The CME Lean Hog Index rose to $85.22 per cwt on Thursday, reaching the highest level since late November.

U.S. pork exports kicked off the new year on a slightly stronger note. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed that pork sales surged to 56,000 metric tons (MT) during the week ending Jan. 22. Mexico was the top buyer for the week (28,300 MT), while China also stepped in with larger purchases (15,900 MT).

Accumulated exports are running 24 percent ahead of the same period last year. Mexico has been leading shipments, accounting for about half total exports.

U.S. Census data on Thursday showed that pork exports totaled 254,000 MT in November, down 6.6 percent from 2024. Mexico was the largest destination for the month. China was the No. 2 destination, as the country increased its buying through the summer and fall.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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