Tag: Corn

Ethanol production continues to break records

U.S. ethanol production rose 2.4 percent last week to an average of 1.131 million barrels a day. Output was well above market expectations for the week and a new record daily average. Production was also 2.5 percent above the same week last year, outpacing seasonal averages. The estimated corn crushed during the week was about…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 17, 2025

U.S. ethanol production rose 2.4 percent last week to an average of 1.131 million barrels a day. Output was well above market expectations for the week and a new record daily average. Production was also 2.5 percent above the same week last year, outpacing seasonal averages.

The estimated corn crushed during the week was about 107.3 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year reached approximately 1.545 billion bushels, representing 27.6 percent of the USDA’s 2025/26 target.

Corn crushings could reach the USDA’s target, depending on production efficiencies. Higher production efficiency could limit corn crush volumes, similar to the 2024/25 season. Still, access to plenty of bushels from this year’s harvest should continue to encourage strong crush volumes.

U.S. ethanol inventories fell 0.7 percent last week to 22.35 million barrels. Volumes were 1.3 percent below last year and were below the five-year average for the first time this year.

U.S. gasoline demand on a four-week average basis rose for the first time in three weeks, which aligned with seasonal trends. Demand remained below last year’s levels on a seasonal basis.

Strong ethanol exports have helped keep inventories from swelling. The EIA reported that shipments averaged 191,000 barrels per day last week, up from 125,000 the previous week and 163,000 the same week last year. That was also the fourth-largest volume since the agency began reporting weekly data in 2023.

Strong ethanol exports have been driving domestic production growth recently. Shipments have accounted for a larger share of U.S. ethanol demand due to international growth.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar traded higher overnight to recover some recent losses. Crude oil rebounded from yesterday’s lows after hitting the lowest level in over eight months. Stock futures also recovered slightly from yesterday’s losses. CORN After fighting off their lows on Monday, selling pressure…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 17, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar traded higher overnight to recover some recent losses. Crude oil rebounded from yesterday’s lows after hitting the lowest level in over eight months. Stock futures also recovered slightly from yesterday’s losses.

CORN
After fighting off their lows on Monday, selling pressure resumed in March corn futures on Tuesday, losing 3.25 cents to close at $4.36 ½. Prices recovered slightly overnight but a test of the low end of the range around $4.35 remains likely.

New contract lows in Chicago wheat futures have added negative pressure. Crude oil saw a minor rebound this morning, which could lift some bearish pressure after hitting eight-month lows on Tuesday.

Corn continues to have a strong demand story between exports and ethanol production.

Corn crop development continues to progress well in Brazil and Argentina following recent rainfall.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures continued their selling on Tuesday, trading 9.50 cents lower to $10.71 ¾. Futures officially closed the breakaway gap from late October when the Trump administration announced a trade deal with China.

Prices could find support at these levels, but a lot of the pressure is also coming from the product markets. Soybean oil is trading at a six-month low amid the lack of biofuel policy uncertainty. Soybean meal prices have been consolidating over the past week and have been holding above $300 per ton.

China continues to clear its soybean reserves, likely to make room for recent U.S. soybean purchases.

We maintain that South America currently lacks a bullish story that would support the market. Rain is landing in areas that need it. Our latest discussion with Nutrien Ag Solutions’ Eric Snodgrass did touch on the idea that if rain does persist too long through January, there could be some harvest delays. However, that would be a larger story for the Safrinha corn crop.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures accelerated their trade to the downside on Tuesday, losing 11.25 cents to close at $5.09 ½. Prices also posted new life of contract lows after taking out the Oct. 14 low.

Open interest and volume were substantially higher yesterday in support of the selling. Bullish news remains limited. Prices may continue to test these levels to search for additional sellers.

Rumors floated yesterday that China canceled some purchases of U.S. wheat this week. China had booked only a couple of cargoes, but the idea of cancellations is negative for sentiment.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 16, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push to a two-month low overnight. Crude oil is down sharply and trading at the lowest in about eight months. Stock futures also extended recent losses. CORN March corn futures traded moderately lower on Monday after rebounding from their…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 16, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push to a two-month low overnight. Crude oil is down sharply and trading at the lowest in about eight months. Stock futures also extended recent losses.

CORN
March corn futures traded moderately lower on Monday after rebounding from their intraday lows. Negative trade continued overnight, likely driven by ongoing weakness in the wheat complex.

Prices are testing the bottom end of their trading range since breaking below their tighter consolidation on Friday. The low end of the current range is around $4.35, which could provide support.

Last week’s break below the 100-day moving average is also negative for the short term.

Crude oil breaking to eight-month lows overnight continues to weigh on the corn market.

SOYBEANS
March soybean futures extended their losses from last week after trading 5.50 cents lower on Monday to $10.81 ½. Friday’s break below the 100-day moving average is negative.

Prices are testing the Oct. 27 breakaway gap between $10.73 and $10.83. Holding above the breakout, even after closing the gap, would be positive for the market.

The USDA’s grain export sales report on Monday showed that soybean sales for the week ending Nov. 20 totaled 2.32 MMT, boosted by strong sales to China of 2.14 MMT. That brought China’s confirmed total to just over 4 MMT or 34 percent of the White House’s 12 MMT target.

China’s SinoGrain sold 63 percent of the 500,000 MT of soybeans auctioned this week. Another 550,000 MT are set for auction later this week. The sales are expected to clear room for U.S. soybean deliveries.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that U.S. soybean crush totaled 216 million bushels in November, up 12 percent year-over-year. Cumulative crushings among NOPA members are running 12 percent ahead of last season.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures extended losses this week, losing 8.50 cents on Monday to close at $5.20 ¾. Weakness continued overnight as the market continues to view global supplies as ample, especially from the southern hemisphere.

Volume and open interest have been rising in support of the recent selling. Futures could be setting up for a test of the contract low of $5.08 ½ set on Oct. 14.

While the Commitment of Traders data continues to catch up, it is probably safe to assume that managed money traders have been adding back to their net short position over the past few weeks after prices failed to hold above resistance levels in November.

Aside from strong U.S. exports, there is not much bullish news to help support wheat prices. Globally, Egypt’s wheat imports have been slowing as the country’s new grain buyer prioritizes purchasing efficiencies.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Soybean export inspections continue to lag in December

The USDA’s latest grain export inspections report on Monday continued to show a relatively strong pace for corn and wheat exports for the first couple of weeks of December. Corn movements during the week ending Dec. 11 fell 9 percent from the previous week to 1.58 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were 37 percent higher…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 15, 2025

The USDA’s latest grain export inspections report on Monday continued to show a relatively strong pace for corn and wheat exports for the first couple of weeks of December. Corn movements during the week ending Dec. 11 fell 9 percent from the previous week to 1.58 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were 37 percent higher than the same week last year amid continued demand from key buyers.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week, followed by Japan and Spain. Colombia and Taiwan were also in the top five. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 22.5 MMT, up nearly 69 percent year-over-year.

U.S. soybean export inspections fell sharply last week to 795,700 metric tons (MT). Volumes were the lowest in about two months, as the key export window winds down for the season. Inspections were 53 percent lower than the same week last year amid limited export demand.

China came in as the top destination for U.S. soybeans during the week, taking 202,000 MT of the total. Germany was the second-largest destination for the week.

Still, with muted demand from China during the key sales and shipping window, inspections remained 46 percent below last season at 13.7 MMT. Higher shipments to Mexico and Egypt have helped offset some of the impact of lower exports to China. Total exports still remain the lowest out of the past decade.

Wheat export inspections rose 23 percent last week to 488,000 MT, the highest since mid-October. Volumes were also 61 percent higher than the same week last year and well above their seasonal highs.

The Philippines was the No. 1 destination for the week, followed by Mexico and South Korea. Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 14.12 MMT, up 22 percent year-over-year. Strong hard red winter wheat shipments have been driving higher year-over-year demand, particularly for Mexico, Nigeria, and parts of Asia.

Sorghum export inspections rebounded last week to 71,900 MT, though shipments remained well below last year. Those shipments were bound for China, according to the USDA. Year-to-date inspections are running 59 percent behind last year at 542,200 MT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 15, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight, which favors U.S. export pricing. Weakness persisted in the crude oil market, with prices trading at a 1-month low. Stock futures are recovering following Friday’s sharp losses. CORN March corn futures broke out of their tight…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 15, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight, which favors U.S. export pricing. Weakness persisted in the crude oil market, with prices trading at a 1-month low. Stock futures are recovering following Friday’s sharp losses.

CORN

March corn futures broke out of their tight consolidation range on Friday after trading 5.75 cents lower to $4.40 ¾. Open interest rose slightly on Friday, while volume also climbed, in support of the selling. The next support level is the November low around the $4.35 level.

Weak crude oil could also be weighing on corn this morning. Ethanol production remains at a lofty pace, but exports are needed to keep ethanol moving with record production.

The corn demand story remains at the top of mind. The latest export sales data released for the week ending Nov. 20 showed that total exports and commitments are 31 percent higher than the previous season and the fastest in more than a decade.

The USDA confirmed on Monday that private exporters sold 150,320 MT of corn to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.

SOYBEANS

Weakness continued in the soy complex on Friday, with January soybean futures losing 16.75 cents. Prices closed below the 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-October, when the market was anticipating a trade deal between the U.S. and China.

A test of the gap between $10.63 and $10.70 remains a possibility. The March contract is taking over as the most active, with the gap between $10.76 and $10.83.

The National Oilseeds Processors Association will release its latest U.S. soybean crush data for November later this morning. Pre-report estimates expect that crush likely fell from an all-time high set the previous month, but crush could still be a record for November.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold another 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for the current marketing year. That brings the confirmed total to 3.513 MMT, which is 26 percent of the 12 MMT target.

Rain made its way to southern Brazil over the weekend, which had been drier for the past month. South America continues to get the precipitation needed to have a decent crop this season.

WHEAT

Chicago wheat futures fell under pressure again on Friday, trading 4.25 cents lower to $5.29 ¼. Prices extended those declines overnight, with prices pushing to the lowest in over a month.

Strong global export competition continues to weigh on the market despite U.S. exports performing very well this season. Ample supplies in the southern hemisphere remain a negative factor for prices.

China is rumored to have bought some Argentine wheat for the first time in decades. Argentina’s prices are well below U.S. prices, so if China is bargain hunting, Argentina would be the place to go.

Russia and Ukraine continued to step up attacks on infrastructure despite ongoing peace talks, though the market has expressed little worry over the conflict recently.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 12, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is up slightly overnight following recent losses. Crude oil is slightly lower after rebounding from a two-month low. Stock futures are mixed, but the S&P 500 continues to regain momentum near its previous record. CORN More rangebound trade has been the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 12, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is up slightly overnight following recent losses. Crude oil is slightly lower after rebounding from a two-month low. Stock futures are mixed, but the S&P 500 continues to regain momentum near its previous record.

CORN
More rangebound trade has been the theme for corn futures, as the March contract holds between $4.40 and $4.50, though prices have been winding tighter over the past couple of weeks.

The USDA confirmed on Friday that private exporters sold 250,000 MT of corn to unknown buyers.

Barchart’s national corn basis index is running at the lowest in 12 years. On average, the basis has been higher in Missouri and the Eastern Corn Belt, with weaker values in the Upper Midwest. Basis down in the Gulf remains strong with lofty export demand.

Crop conditions are good in Brazil and Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that farmers made considerable progress in Argentina’s corn planting this past week. Progress is well above the five-year average and outpacing last year. Moisture and crop conditions remain favorable.

SOYBEANS
January futures posted another day of moderate gains on Thursday, rising 2.25 cents to $10.93 ½. The overnight trade brought more pressure, bringing prices back near their weekly lows. The top of the gap from when the U.S. announced an alleged deal with China at $10.70 could still have some gravity on prices.

The USDA confirmed on Friday that China bought another 132,000 MT of soybeans, bringing their confirmed total flash sales to 3.38 MMT, which is 28 percent of the 12 MMT the White House says China will buy by the end of February, or whenever their next goal post is.

StoneX has put out that their sources have them believing that China could have 6-7 MMT of U.S. soybeans on the books, though it will be difficult to confirm until the export sales report catches up.

China announced another reserve auction that is expected to clear inventories for recent U.S. purchases. The auction is expected to include another 500,000 MT of soybeans next week.

Additionally, 93,895 MT of soybean meal was sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 season, and another 10,433 MT were reportedly sold for the 2026/27 season.

Argentina’s soybean planting is still progressing below the five-year average but has been catching up to a more normal pace. Crop conditions declined slightly this week but remain much more favorable than a year ago.

WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures posted modest gains of 4 cents on Thursday to close at $5.33 ½, extending Wednesday’s bounce from intraday lows. Bearish pressure held over the complex, with prices giving back most of their gains overnight.

The wheat market continues to be taking signals from large global supplies. U.S. exports have been running at a substantial pace. But it remains clear that the world is not running out of wheat anytime soon.

The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentine wheat production estimate again to a record 27.7 MMT, which compares to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s forecast of 25.5 MMT. Either way, Argentina is expected to harvest a bumper crop, as more than half of the crop has been collected.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
How are grain exports progressing this season?

The USDA is still catching up on its weekly export sales reporting, but reports have shown a continued strong trend for corn and wheat commitments, while soybean sales lag behind previous years. CORN U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Nov. 13 totaled 2.38 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year, up…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 11, 2025

The USDA is still catching up on its weekly export sales reporting, but reports have shown a continued strong trend for corn and wheat commitments, while soybean sales lag behind previous years.

CORN
U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Nov. 13 totaled 2.38 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year, up from 979,500 metric tons (MT) the previous week. Sales were the strongest since the week ending Oct. 2.

Mexico was the top buyer for the week, accounting for 767,100 MT of the total. Japan was the second-largest buyer, followed by Taiwan and South Korea. Total commitments of U.S. corn to Mexico are a record.

Exports during the week totaled 2.48 MMT, reaching a marketing-year high. Accumulated exports reached 16.23 MMT, up 74 percent from the previous season. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 40.72 MMT, which is also running at a record pace.

SOYBEANS
U.S. soybean export sales totaled 695,600 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year, up from 510,600 MT the previous week. Sales remained well below the five-year average. Turkey was the top buyer of U.S. soybeans during the week, followed by Egypt and Indonesia. China canceled 100,000 MT of sales, and unknown buyers canceled another 350,300 MT.

Physical exports rose sharply during the week to 1.55 MMT, falling short of the marketing-year high of 1.67 MMT. Like sales, exports remained well below average for this time of the season. Accumulated shipments reached 10.05 MMT, down 42 percent year-over-year. Total exports and commitments for the season rose to 18.4 MMT, down 42 percent.

WHEAT
Net wheat export sales nearly doubled during the week ending Nov. 13 to 850,400 MT, up from 462,500 MT the previous week. The bulk of the sales were for unknown buyers. However, Taiwan, South Korea, and Mexico, were among the top known buyers. China also made larger purchases during the week.

Weekly exports fell to 248,900 MT, down from 285,500 MT the previous week. Total exports and commitments for the marketing year rose to 18.12 MMT, up 22 percent from the previous year. The current pace is also running at the best since the 2013/14 season. Mexico has helped account for much of the growth in U.S. wheat export demand this season, as well as Indonesia and Nigeria.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 11, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower, extending yesterday’s losses after the Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rates by an expected 25 basis points. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are lower. CORN March corn futures held within their consolidation range after trading 3.75…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 11, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower, extending yesterday’s losses after the Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rates by an expected 25 basis points. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are lower.

CORN
March corn futures held within their consolidation range after trading 3.75 cents lower to $4.44 ¼ on Wednesday.

Delayed crush data showed that ethanol processors used 476.4 million bushels of corn in October. Corn crushed since the start of the marketing year reached 912 million bushels, 0.5 percent above the same period last year.

The USDA released the latest export sales data for the week ending Nov. 13, which showed a strong rebound in corn export sales to 2.38 MMT. Total corn exports and commitments reached 40.72 MMT, which remains a record pace.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) raised its 2025/26 corn production forecast to 138.9 MMT, up slightly from the previous month. The agency still forecasts output to fall 1.5 percent year-over-year as lower yields are expected to offset higher plantings.

SOYBEANS
Janaury soybean futures pumped the brakes on recent selling, trading 4 cents higher on Wednesday to $10.91 ¼. Prices stopped short of the 100-day moving average around $10.80. The break below $11 is still negative, and the moving target of China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans continues to add uncertainty.

China’s state-controlled grain buyer SinoGrain auctioned off more than 500,000 MT of soybeans this week, with buyers snatching up about three-quarters of the total. It’s believed that China is selling off state reserves to make room for incoming U.S. soybeans.

U.S. oilseed processors crushed a record 237.1 million bushels of soybeans in October, according to delayed data released by the USDA on Wednesday. Combined crush for the first two months of the 2025/26 marketing year reached 442 million bushels, up nearly 10 percent year-over-year.

Conab lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 177.1 MMT, down from the previous estimate of 177.6 MMT. Output is still expected to increase by 3.3 percent from the previous season due to acreage growth.

WHEAT
December Chicago wheat fell sharply on Wednesday, trading as low as $5.25 ¼. Prices had recovered from their lows and only lost 5 cents on the day to close at $5.29 ½.

Prices continued to struggle amid a bearish supply outlook in the U.S. and the world. Global wheat stocks, particularly in the southern hemisphere, continue to grow.

The U.S. dollar took a sharp turn lower yesterday and into the overnight session as the Federal Reserve announced another 25 basis point cut in benchmark interest rates. A weakening U.S. dollar could continue to support U.S. wheat exports, which have been running at the best pace since 2016/17.

USDA export sales data released this morning showed that wheat sales rebounded during the week ending Nov. 13 to 850,000 MT. Sales were just shy of a marketing-year high last posted in early October.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Ethanol output slips last week but hold strong

U.S. ethanol production fell nearly 2 percent last week to an average of 1.105 million barrels a day during the week ending Dec. 5, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Output pulled back from its recent record but held above year-ago levels. Estimated corn used for ethanol during the week was about 106.6…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 10, 2025

U.S. ethanol production fell nearly 2 percent last week to an average of 1.105 million barrels a day during the week ending Dec. 5, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Output pulled back from its recent record but held above year-ago levels.

Estimated corn used for ethanol during the week was about 106.6 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year are approximately 1.463 billion bushels, reaching 26 percent of the USDA’s target.

The USDA released delayed corn crush data for September and October on Wednesday. Corn used for ethanol production for the first two months of the 2025/26 marketing year reached 912 million bushels, sitting 0.50 percent above a year ago.

U.S. ethanol inventories were unchanged from the previous week at 22.51 million barrels. Stocks have been trending mostly sideways since this fall, which is typical for this time of the year. However, inventories should begin to trend higher through the winter and early spring.

U.S. implied gasoline demand has been in a seasonal slump. Product supplied rose 1.6 percent to 8.46 million barrels per day, but was four percent lower than a year ago. However, exports have helped keep a lid on inventories amid record production.

U.S. ethanol exports averaged 125,000 barrels per day last week, compared to 170,000 barrels the previous week. Shipments were also higher than the 123,000-barrel average the same week last year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 10, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower Wednesday morning following yesterday’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are lower as the market pulls back from recent gains this week. The Federal Reserve is largely expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points today. CORN March corn…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 10, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower Wednesday morning following yesterday’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are lower as the market pulls back from recent gains this week. The Federal Reserve is largely expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points today.

CORN
March corn futures posted a strong gain of 4.25 cents on Tuesday to close at $4.48 after the December WASDE report showed lower-than-expected corn ending stocks. Prices pushed back toward the upper end of their consolidation range.

Unsurprisingly, the USDA raised the corn export forecast in yesterday’s report to a new record of 3.2 billion bushels, though the increase was a little larger than expected. The agency noted that export inspections data during the September-November quarter likely exceeded 800 million bushels, surpassing the prior high set in 2007.

Yesterday’s report shows that demand could be slowing chewing through large supplies from this year’s harvest. The 2025/26 ending stocks forecast remained above 2 billion bushels, which is considered burdensome.

SOYBEANS
January soybean futures extended losses early on Tuesday and held onto lower prices following the report. Prices are quickly approaching the 100-day moving average. A close below that could mean a test of the gap between $10.63 and $10.70.

The USDA punted any supply and demand changes for the U.S. soybean balance sheet after leaving it unchanged this month. No much changes were offered for the global balance sheet, but the report continued to reflect large global supplies.

The USDA confirmed a large volume of flash soybean and product sales Wednesday morning. Sales include 136,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, 119,000 MT for unknown buyers, another 212,000 MT for unknown buyers, and 120,000 MT of soybean meal sold to Poland.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures finished steady on Tuesday after closing just 0.25 cents lower at $5.34 ½. However, prices turned sharply lower overnight, breaking below their consolidation range.

The U.S. wheat balance sheet was also left unchanged this month, with no revisions to the export forecast. The USDA raised global wheat supplies by another sizable amount due to large harvests out of Canada and Argentina. Production estimates were also raised for Australia, Ukraine, and Russia.

Money managers remain heavily short the Chicago wheat market compared to the 10-year average. Traders had been exiting short positions through the first week of November, which had led to the three-month high. However, strong global competition likely capped the rally.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
USDA boosts U.S. corn exports in December WASDE

The USDA released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday. CORN As expected, the USDA left the U.S. production numbers unchanged for this month’s report. The U.S. corn export forecast was raised by 125 million bushels to a record 3.20 billion. The USDA noted that current pace of export inspections…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 9, 2025

The USDA released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday.

CORN
As expected, the USDA left the U.S. production numbers unchanged for this month’s report.

The U.S. corn export forecast was raised by 125 million bushels to a record 3.20 billion. The USDA noted that current pace of export inspections warranted an increase in the forecast. With no changes to production, the 2025/26 corn carryout was lowered to 2.029 billion bushels, down 125 million from November.

The USDA’s corn export demand increase was a little higher than we expected. We had previously alluded to the USDA having room to up the forecast, but the substantial increase is definitely positive.

The reduced ending stocks forecast brought the stocks-to-use ratio down to about 12.5 percent, reflecting a less burdensome outlook for the U.S. balance sheet. However, the ratio remains the highest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 279.2 million metric tons (MMT), down nearly 2 MMT from last month. The reduced supplies were due to lower production forecasts, primarily out of Ukraine and Canada.

Brazil and Argentina’s production forecasts were left unchanged at 131 MMT and 53 MMT, respectively.

Corn prices have had the best reaction out of the grains post-report, with the March contract trading about 4 cents higher. Futures are still well within their consolidation range that started about a month ago.

SOYBEANS
The U.S. soybean balance sheet was left unchanged for this month, with no revisions to export or crush demand. No revisions left the 2025/26 carryout forecast unchanged at 290 million bushels.

Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 400,000 metric tons to 122.4 MMT. The higher stocks reflected increased supplies for Brazil and Russia. Global ending stocks remain the second highest on record.

Soybean futures held onto their losses following the report as it offered no bullish data for the market. January soybeans are trading around the breakout level from the June 20 high, which could serve as minor support.

WHEAT
Like soybeans, the U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged from the previous report, with ending stocks holding at 901 million bushels.

As we’ve been alluding to, the USDA raised the global supply outlook. Global ending stocks increased to 274.9 MMT, up 3.5 MMT from the previous month. That was largely due to increases for Canada’s wheat harvest, as well as Argentina, the EU, Australia, and Russia.

Global stocks are now projected to be the highest in three years after initially being down from last season.

Wheat futures have surprisingly held up well post-report despite the bearish global numbers. Growing supplies have been the recent theme in the global wheat market over the past few months. Today’s report reinforces the idea of strong world competition, which has challenged U.S. prices.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – December 9, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday ahead of the USDA’s supply and demand report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are steady to lower. CORN March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.44 ½. New crop December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.64 ¾. Futures maintained their sideways…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

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December 9, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Tuesday ahead of the USDA’s supply and demand report. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are steady to lower.

CORN
March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.44 ½. New crop December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.64 ¾.

Futures maintained their sideways consolidation pattern after the March contract traded 1 cent lower. Prices are trading in the middle of a range between $4.35 and $4.57.

Today’s WASDE is expected to show slightly lower U.S. corn ending stocks. However, the supply and demand situation remains burdensome as record production is expected to overshadow strong demand.

The export forecast could get a slight boost just based on pace data.

President Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports to boost domestic production. Canada accounts for 88 percent of U.S. potash imports. Limited supply chain disruptions have kept potash as one of the most affordable nutrients.

SOYBEANS
January soybeans are down 4.75 cents at $10.89. New crop November soybeans are down 3 cents at $10.98 ½. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is sharply lower.

Futures extended losses on Monday after the January contract lost 11.50 cents. Weak price action continued in the overnight session, with a test of the gap between $10.63 and $10.70 seems more likely. Soybean meal prices remain the weakest in the soy complex.

A wetter outlook for Brazil helped pressure the soybean complex to start this week. Planting and crop establishment seems to be going well.

Ahead of today’s WASDE, the trade is expecting an upward adjustment to the U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast.

Argentina’s government reduced its export tax for some agricultural commodities, including soybeans and soybean products. Last time the country lowered export taxes, China bought unprecedented volumes of Argentinian soybeans.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is down 2.50 cents at $5.32 ¼. KC wheat is down 1.50 cents at $5.25. Spring wheat is up 2 cents at $5.73 ¼.

Wheat futures have struggled to find buyers for the past couple of weeks. Chicago wheat is testing the lower end of its consolidation range ahead of today’s WASDE report.

Pre-report expectations predict slightly lower U.S. ending stocks following last month’s boost. It’s possible the USDA will also raise global supplies due to strong estimates out of Canada last week.

Argentina’s export tax reduction includes wheat, which could help drive farmer selling in the country and pressure global prices.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.