The USDA released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday.

CORN
As expected, the USDA left the U.S. production numbers unchanged for this month’s report.

The U.S. corn export forecast was raised by 125 million bushels to a record 3.20 billion. The USDA noted that current pace of export inspections warranted an increase in the forecast. With no changes to production, the 2025/26 corn carryout was lowered to 2.029 billion bushels, down 125 million from November.

The USDA’s corn export demand increase was a little higher than we expected. We had previously alluded to the USDA having room to up the forecast, but the substantial increase is definitely positive.

The reduced ending stocks forecast brought the stocks-to-use ratio down to about 12.5 percent, reflecting a less burdensome outlook for the U.S. balance sheet. However, the ratio remains the highest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 279.2 million metric tons (MMT), down nearly 2 MMT from last month. The reduced supplies were due to lower production forecasts, primarily out of Ukraine and Canada.

Brazil and Argentina’s production forecasts were left unchanged at 131 MMT and 53 MMT, respectively.

Corn prices have had the best reaction out of the grains post-report, with the March contract trading about 4 cents higher. Futures are still well within their consolidation range that started about a month ago.

SOYBEANS
The U.S. soybean balance sheet was left unchanged for this month, with no revisions to export or crush demand. No revisions left the 2025/26 carryout forecast unchanged at 290 million bushels.

Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 400,000 metric tons to 122.4 MMT. The higher stocks reflected increased supplies for Brazil and Russia. Global ending stocks remain the second highest on record.

Soybean futures held onto their losses following the report as it offered no bullish data for the market. January soybeans are trading around the breakout level from the June 20 high, which could serve as minor support.

WHEAT
Like soybeans, the U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged from the previous report, with ending stocks holding at 901 million bushels.

As we’ve been alluding to, the USDA raised the global supply outlook. Global ending stocks increased to 274.9 MMT, up 3.5 MMT from the previous month. That was largely due to increases for Canada’s wheat harvest, as well as Argentina, the EU, Australia, and Russia.

Global stocks are now projected to be the highest in three years after initially being down from last season.

Wheat futures have surprisingly held up well post-report despite the bearish global numbers. Growing supplies have been the recent theme in the global wheat market over the past few months. Today’s report reinforces the idea of strong world competition, which has challenged U.S. prices.

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