Tag: Corn

• Morning Grain Comments – January 5, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher as the currency recovers from recent lows. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher. CORN March corn futures finished fairly negative last week after falling 12.50 cents. Prices pushed back to the lower end of their range…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 5, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher as the currency recovers from recent lows. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are higher.

  CORN
  March corn futures finished fairly negative last week after falling 12.50 cents. Prices pushed back to the lower end of their range and tested the $4.35 support area last night before recovering.

  Traders seemed willing to add short positions on the recent down move, though trading interest has been largely stagnant for the past month. Next Monday’s major report day will likely drive more trading interest and help futures break out of their trading range.

  The most recent available export sales data showed corn sales totaled just 756,400 MT during the week ending Dec. 25, compared to 2.22 MMT a week earlier. Volumes remained above seasonal averages despite the sharp dip.

  The USDA will finally be caught up on export sales data starting Thursday.

  SOYBEANS
  The soybean market saw another lower week of trade after trading 26.75 cents lower last week and fell to the lowest in more than two months.

  March futures did rally off their intraday lows on Friday, with upward momentum continuing into Sunday’s overnight session.

  Soybean export sales rose to 1.24 MMT during the week ending Dec. 25. Sales were above the five-year average, as other buyers stepped in with China during the week. Egypt, a key buyer, also was purchasing soybeans at a rate above the five-year average.

  Weaker prices over the past few weeks likely brought international buyers back to U.S. soybeans following a short break from buying when prices surged in October and November.

  Southern Brazil and northern Argentina received substantial rainfall over the past week. Above-average rainfall is expected for the next week, likely benefiting areas with developing crops.

  WHEAT
  New contract lows came in the Chicago wheat market last week, with March prices touching $5.01 ½ before closing about a nickel higher on Friday. Hard red winter wheat futures avoided contract lows again but continued to reject resistance levels at the 100-day moving average.

  A successful re-test of Chicago wheat’s lows could trigger some speculative short-covering, though bearish fundamentals could limit a rally.

  U.S. wheat export sales slowed dramatically in the back half of December. Sales totaled just 95,000 MT during the week ending Dec. 25, which was well below the five-year average. China and unknown buyers were canceling sales.

  The Southern Plains will remain warmer than average this week, keeping winterkill risks low.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – February 4, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher following yesterday’s steady trade. Crude oil is steady following Tuesday’s gains. CORN March corn traded 2.75 cents higher on Tuesday to close at $4.28 ½ a bushel. Prices recouped their losses from the previous session. Prices seem to…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 4, 2026

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher following yesterday’s steady trade. Crude oil is steady following Tuesday’s gains.

  CORN
  March corn traded 2.75 cents higher on Tuesday to close at $4.28 ½ a bushel. Prices recouped their losses from the previous session. Prices seem to be more rangebound this week, which could continue between the January low of $4.17 and last week’s high near $4.35.

  President Trump signed the funding bill that ended the partial government shutdown on Tuesday. Most of the government will be funded through the rest of the 2026 fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30.

  The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 130,480 MT of corn to unknown buyers during the 2025/26 marketing year.

  Rainfall in Mato Grosso has been lower than average over the past two weeks. While that may favor Brazil’s soybean harvest, more rain is needed to benefit the incoming Safrinha corn crop.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybeans traded 5.50 cents higher on Tuesday to close at $10.65 ¾. Futures extended their gains from Monday’s lows, led by higher soybean oil prices.

  The U.S. Treasury Department released proposed regulations for the 45Z tax credit this week. Eligibility for the tax credit mirrored earlier proposals of limiting feedstocks to the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, which could bolster domestic demand.

  Soybean oil traded near recent highs this week on the news, as well as the announced trade deal with India. No details have been released, but there is an assumption that soybean oil exports could benefit. Domestic inventories climbed year-over-year through the fourth quarter of 2025.

  Meanwhile, strong soybean meal demand sent inventories to a six-year low in December, despite record production during the month.

  Brazil’s ongoing soybean harvest could continue to cap gains in the soy complex.

  WHEAT
  March wheat futures were steady on Tuesday, largely pausing their recent selloff after trading just 1 cent higher to $5.28 ¾. Selling did resume overnight into this morning, with prices stretching down to yesterday’s lows around $5.25.

  Prices are currently trading a minor support, as the area served as resistance before breaking above it last week.

  Weather in the Plains is expected to be mild over the next couple of weeks, along with better chances of precipitation.

  Hard red spring wheat stocks in warehouses in Minnesota and Wisconsin are up 24.3 percent year-over-year as of February. Higher stocks have been weighing on spring wheat futures, which failed to gain similar momentum to the winter wheat contracts.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  U.S. corn ethanol crush running near record pace

  U.S. ethanol processors are crushing corn at the second-fastest pace on record amid large supplies and strong export demand. U.S. corn crushed for ethanol totaled 471.9 million bushels in November, unchanged from the same period last year. Year-to-date crushings for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 reached 1.38 billion bushels, up 0.4 percent…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  January 2, 2026

  U.S. ethanol processors are crushing corn at the second-fastest pace on record amid large supplies and strong export demand. U.S. corn crushed for ethanol totaled 471.9 million bushels in November, unchanged from the same period last year. Year-to-date crushings for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 reached 1.38 billion bushels, up 0.4 percent from a year ago.

  

  Corn used for fuel ethanol is running at the fastest pace since the 2017/18 season when demand hit a record 5.605 billion bushels. Processors are on track to meet the demand target of 5.6 billion for the current season. Corn used for ethanol is forecast to account for about 34 percent of total corn demand this season.

  U.S. ethanol production continued to run at a record pace in December. Production jumped 2.3 percent during the week ending Dec. 26 to an average of 1.120 million barrels a day. Output hit a record 16 billion gallons in 2024, which is expected to have risen to another record in 2025.

  

  Ethanol production growth has been attributed to growth in U.S. exports. Exports have seen consistent growth over the past couple of years, driven by climate policy in Canada and the European Union.

  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – December 31, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher for a second day. Crude oil continued to recover this week. Stock futures are steady to lower as equities struggled to find buyers this week. CORN March corn futures held onto early-week losses after trading 1.75 cents lower on…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 31, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher for a second day. Crude oil continued to recover this week. Stock futures are steady to lower as equities struggled to find buyers this week.

  CORN
  March corn futures held onto early-week losses after trading 1.75 cents lower on Tuesday to $4.40 ½. Prices retreated back down to the lower end of their consolidation range between $4.35 and $4.55.

  Catch-up data from the USDA this morning showed that corn export sales remained strong through the week ending Dec. 18. Sales totaled 2.22 MMT, holding well above seasonal levels.

  The EIA will release its latest ethanol production data later this morning. Weekly data suggests ethanol processors are on track to meet the USDA’s target of 5.6 billion bushels, as large domestic supplies encourage crush.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybean futures were steady on Tuesday but held onto losses from the previous session. Prices traded back near fresh two-month lows overnight.

  Bloomberg reported that China has bought more than 8 MMT of U.S. soybeans for the current season. Available USDA data shows that China is confirmed to have purchased just 6.56 MMT of soybeans.

  The lack of a formal trade deal will continue to create uncertainty in the market regarding soybean demand.

  Soybeans could begin to feel harvest pressure from South America as combines begin rolling into fields over the next few weeks.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat traded 2.25 cents lower to close at $5.10 ¾ a bushel on Tuesday and held onto losses from the previous session. Higher open interest suggests that this week’s selling has likely brought in additional short positions.

  Drier weather is expected for the U.S. plains over the next week, though better chances of precipitation are expected to return in week 2. Above-average temperatures could allow rain to soak into the ground and aid soil moisture for areas that have seen growing deficits over the past month.

  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its wheat production forecast to 27.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 27.1 MMT. That is now the largest private and public forecast for the crop as farmers wrap up the harvest.

  Russia and Ukraine continued to strike each other’s Black Sea ports overnight. Ukraine struck a refinery port, while Russia hit Ukraine’s Odesa port, which could impact some commodity shipping.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – December 30, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are lower. CORN March corn futures extended losses on Monday following Friday’s rejection of a move above resistance. Spot futures traded 7.75 cents lower to close at $4.42 ¼. Prices paused…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 30, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher. Stock futures are lower.

  CORN
  March corn futures extended losses on Monday following Friday’s rejection of a move above resistance. Spot futures traded 7.75 cents lower to close at $4.42 ¼.

  Prices paused their selling just below the 100-day moving average and traded steady overnight. The lack of new bullish news amid the holiday likely limited gains last week, leading to spillover pressure this week.

  The EIA released ethanol production data for the week ending Dec. 19, showing that output fell 3.2 percent from the previous week to 1.095 million barrels a day. Production was also 1.1 percent below the same week last year but above the five-year average.

  Additionally, ethanol exports surged to 219,000 barrels per day, a record for data going back to May 2023. Exports continue to support domestic ethanol production growth as processors and exporters capitalize on strong international demand.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybeans also extended their losses on Monday after trading 9 cents lower to $10.63 ½ a bushel. Weakness in the product market held pressure over futures.

  The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. That brings the confirmed total to 6.41 MMT for the season. Another 231,000 MT were sold to unknown buyers.

  U.S. soybean exports were muted last week despite shipments still heading to China. China now has the largest commitments of U.S. soybeans for the season compared to other key buyers.

  The USDA will release crush data for November on Friday, which is expected to show relatively strong volumes compared to a year ago.

  ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Cofco abandoned their soy farming moratorium in Brazil after facing government scrutiny that the 2006 agreement created unfair soybean buying practices. The moratorium aimed at protecting the Amazon Rainforest by not buying soybeans linked to deforestation.

  Rainfall in Argentina is expected to be lower than average over the next 10-days, with the possibility of better precipitation in the two-week forecast. Plenty of rain is still forecast for major growing areas in Brazil as crop development continues.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat futures traded 6 cents lower to close at $5.13. The market has so far erased nearly half of last week’s gains, as prices struggle to move away from recent contract lows.

  Higher open interest suggests that yesterday’s selling brought new short positions, which was a trend across the board in the grains on Monday.

  Bearish global fundamentals continued to keep prices in check. U.S. wheat exports have responded to lower prices, as shipments remained 22 percent ahead of last year and the fastest pace since the 2016/17 season.

  Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 44.6 MMT, citing a stronger shipment pace.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Grain export inspections decline amid holiday week

  U.S. corn and wheat shipments declined sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday last week, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report released on Monday. Corn export inspections fell 25.5 percent to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 25. Volumes were still 43 percent above the same week last year and…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 29, 2025

  U.S. corn and wheat shipments declined sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday last week, according to the USDA’s Grain Export Inspections report released on Monday. Corn export inspections fell 25.5 percent to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 25. Volumes were still 43 percent above the same week last year and remained at seasonal highs.

  

  Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week, while Colombia, Japan, and South Korea also landed in the top five. Mexico has maintained its strong lead of U.S. corn imports as the country secures supplies to feed its cattle.

  Accumulated corn export inspections rose to 25.57 MMT, sitting 66 percent above last year’s pace. Total inspections remain well above the five-year average and at a record due to substantial growth in exports to Mexico and other key buyers.

  Soybean export inspections fell 19 percent last week to 750,300 metric tons (MT). Volumes were also 54 percent below the same week last year amid muted export demand. Soybean inspections have been operating well below the five-year average for much of the marketing year.

  

  China was the top destination for U.S. soybeans, followed closely by Egypt. Japan and Indonesia also landed in the top five for the week. Larger shipments could begin to go to China moving forward, as the country is outpacing others for total commitments of U.S. soybeans, according to export sales data as of Dec. 11. However, the U.S. has been shifting away from its primary export window as more soybeans from South America become available.

  Year-to-date inspections rose to 15.4 MMT, down 46 percent from the previous year.

  U.S. wheat export movements fell 53 percent from the previous week to 302,100 MT, the lowest print in over a month. Volumes fell below last year’s levels but remained above the five-year average.

  

  Bangladesh was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat last week, followed by Thailand and the Dominican Republic.

  Accumulated inspections for the marketing year rose to 15.06 MMT, 22 percent higher than last year. Wheat movements reached 61 percent of the USDA’s 2025/26 target and remained at the fastest pace since the 2016/17 marketing year.

  U.S. sorghum export inspections surged last week to 69,400 MT, driven by larger shipments to China. Mexico was also on the destination list for the week. Total shipments for the marketing year remained 55 percent lower than last year at 617,000 MT.

  —
  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – December 29, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell overnight but failed to support the grain markets. Crude oil is sharply higher in an attempt to reverse Friday’s losses. Stock futures are lower. CORN March corn futures attempted an upside breakout above $4.50 on Wednesday, which did trigger additional…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 29, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell overnight but failed to support the grain markets. Crude oil is sharply higher in an attempt to reverse Friday’s losses. Stock futures are lower.

  CORN
  March corn futures attempted an upside breakout above $4.50 on Wednesday, which did trigger additional buying above resistance on Friday. However, a lack of follow-though drove prices back into the consolidation range into Friday’s close and early this morning.

  Futures still closed 6.25 cents higher last week despite Friday’s reversal. Trading volume was fairly light last week amid the holiday trade, which could be the case for part of this week with markets closed on Thursday for New Years.

  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting reached 77.7 percent complete, supported by favorable moisture conditions for crop development.

  SOYBEANS
  Soybean futures halted their selling last week following three consecutive weeks of declines. The March contract struggled to climb back above October’s breakaway gap, leaving prices in their previous consolidation range established almost a year ago.

  The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 100,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt for the 2025/26 marketing year.

  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s soybean planting is nearly complete, with progress finishing up in some areas where significant rainfall was recorded. Overall, conditions remain favorable for crop development due to adequate soil moisture.

  WHEAT
  Wheat futures rallied last week, with KC wheat leading the rebound. March prices climbed 18.25 cents a bushel before finding resistance at the 100-moving average. The indicator has been a key level of resistance for the past couple of months.

  Chicago futures experienced modest weekly gains after posting fresh contract lows the week before. Some of that buying was driven by speculative short-covering. Speculators still hold a sizable short position in the wheat market, which does make prices vulnerable to additional short covering. However, there is additional room for funds to continue adding shorts.

  A private Russian firm raised its Russian wheat forecast to 91.4 MMT, well above SovEcon’s 88.8 MMT and the USDA’s 87.5 MMT estimates.

  Argentina’s wheat harvest continued to progress ahead of the five-year average last week. Eight-four percent of the crop was harvested, with strong yield reports still coming in. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept its production forecast unchanged at a record 27.1 MMT.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – December 23, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady after surging yesterday. Stock futures are lower but have posted a recent recovery. CORN March corn futures continued to push to the upper end of the trading range on Monday, trading 3.25 cents…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 23, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady after surging yesterday. Stock futures are lower but have posted a recent recovery.

  CORN
  March corn futures continued to push to the upper end of the trading range on Monday, trading 3.25 cents higher to $4.47. Prices held onto those gains in the overnight session but stopped short of the $4.50 resistance area. Lighter holiday trade this week could keep prices rangebound.

  Corn continues to have a strong demand story. The U.S. dollar pulled back to the lowest level since early October, which helps keep exports competitive on the global stage. U.S. corn remains cheap relative to other major exporters.

  Catch-up export sales data showed another strong week of corn sales during the week ending Dec. 11. Japan was the top buyer for the week, with large volumes also purchased from key buyers South Korea and Mexico.

  Total export sales and commitments continued to run at a record pace as buyers flock to relatively cheap U.S. supplies.

  SOYBEANS
  March soybean futures finally paused their recent selling, after trading 5.50 cents higher on Monday to close at $10.65 a bushel. Higher trade this week would end three weeks of losses after a strong round of speculative long liquidation.

  Catch-up data for the USDA’s export sales report this week showed stronger soybean sales for the week ending Dec. 11. Sales jumped to a marketing-year high of 2.42 MMT, with China scooping up more than half of that. That brings confirmed sales to China for the season to 6.27 MMT, 52 percent of the 12 MMT target.

  U.S. soybean export prices to China remain higher than Brazil prices, according to Barchart.

  Favorable South American weather will likely hold weight over the soybean complex as farmers begin harvesting soybeans in Brazil.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat futures extended their bounce from recent contract lows after trading 5.75 cents higher on Monday to close at $5.15 ½. Slightly speculative short-covering likely drove the gains as suggested by lower open interest and volume for the day.

  Light holiday trade could help trigger additional short covering this week, though fundamentals remain bearish.

  Temperatures are expected to climb well above average this week and hit a record high for Christmas day. Additionally, winter wheat areas have been trending drier this month amid a lack of precipitation.

  Meanwhile, cold snaps are expected to hit parts of Southwest Russia in the near term, though snow cover could limit some risks.

  Russia escalated its drone attacks against Ukrainian ports facilities this week, which could cause crop export disruptions. The recent attack damaged a civilian vessel carrying Ukrainian soybeans.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  US wheat export inspections surge to seasonal high

  U.S. grain export inspections rose last week, with corn and wheat shipments holding above seasonal highs, according to the USDA on Monday. Corn export inspections rose 9 percent to 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 18. Volumes were also 52 percent above the same week last year, as demand continued from…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 22, 2025

  U.S. grain export inspections rose last week, with corn and wheat shipments holding above seasonal highs, according to the USDA on Monday. Corn export inspections rose 9 percent to 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) during the week ending Dec. 18. Volumes were also 52 percent above the same week last year, as demand continued from key buyers.

  

  Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. South Korea, Spain, and Japan were also top destinations.

  Accumulated corn export inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 24.27 MMT, sitting 68 percent above a year ago, reaching 31 percent of the USDA’s export target.

  Soybean export inspections rose 7.4 percent last week to 870,200 metric tons (MT). However, volumes were still 51 percent below the same week last year.

  

  China was the top destination for the week, accounting for 386,000 MT of the total. Mexico was the No. 2 destination. China is confirmed to have purchased nearly half of the 12 MMT of soybeans it pledged to buy from the United States.

  Total soybean inspections for the marketing year rose to 14.59 MMT, 46 percent lower than last year.

  U.S. wheat movements jumped 28 percent last week to 627,400 MT. Inspections were the best since late September and well above their seasonal average for the week. Volumes were 47 percent higher than a year ago and topped every year since 2005.

  

  Mexico was the top destination for wheat last week. Japan, Thailand, and China also landed in the top five.

  Accumulated wheat export inspections rose to 14.75 MMT, running 23 percent ahead of last year. Strong hard red winter wheat shipments have been driving higher year-over-year demand, particularly for Mexico, Nigeria, and parts of Asia.

  Sorghum export inspections fell sharply last week to just 4,000 MT. Those shipments were bound for China, according to the USDA. Year-to-date inspections are running 60 percent behind last season at 546,500 MT.

  —
  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – December 22, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight to begin the holiday-shortened week. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Wednesday and resume trading normal hours at 8:30 am CT on Friday. CORN March corn futures rallied again overnight and pushed to the upper end of its trading range. Prices may find…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 22, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight to begin the holiday-shortened week. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Wednesday and resume trading normal hours at 8:30 am CT on Friday.

  CORN
  March corn futures rallied again overnight and pushed to the upper end of its trading range. Prices may find overhead resistance around $4.50 could limit gains this week. Lighter holiday trade this week could keep prices rangebound.

  The rumor that China bought a few cargoes of U.S. corn was not confirmed in the morning flash sales reports on Friday or this morning. They could still appear tomorrow morning. Or, if the individual sales were small enough, they could avoid triggering a flash sales announcement.

  As the CFTC continues to catch up on its Commitment of Traders data reporting, managed money has been relatively neutral in the corn market since mid-November. That could leave room for funds to build a long position.

  SOYBEANS
  March futures bounced higher overnight following six consecutive sessions of losses. The soybean market has struggled to find support since closing the late October gap created by the Trump-Xi meeting.

  The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 396,000 MT of soybeans to China. Of the total, 66,000 MT were bought for the 2026/27 marketing year. Flash sales and catch-up data show that China is confirmed to have bought about half of the 12 MMT pledge.

  Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 MMT, which is the highest estimate among government and private forecasters. The firm noted that some farmers have begun harvesting the soybean crop.

  The start of Brazil’s soybean harvest could continue to pressure soybean prices, as there have been few weather threats for the crop this season.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat futures bounced higher overnight as prices held above last week’s fresh contract lows. Prices stabilized above $5 a bushel, which will likely serve as psychological support.

  The Kansas City wheat contract has been outperforming Chicago wheat lately and has returned to its typical premium.

  Wheat exports out of Russia are expected to be slower this month compared to a year ago. Global wheat prices have been steady over the past month, with the possibility that bearish news is beginning to get priced in.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Morning Grain Comments – December 19, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday ahead of the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher but has experienced a limited recovery from recent eight-month lows. Stock futures are steady following yesterday’s rebound. CORN March corn futures continued to bounce higher on Thursday, trading 4 cents higher to close at…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 19, 2025

  Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday ahead of the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher but has experienced a limited recovery from recent eight-month lows. Stock futures are steady following yesterday’s rebound.

  CORN
  March corn futures continued to bounce higher on Thursday, trading 4 cents higher to close at $4.44 ½. Prices pushed back up to the middle of their sideways consolidation range. There has been a lack of a catalyst to push futures out of their range ahead of the holidays.

  Corn demand remains the highlight, with record ethanol production last week and a continuation of record exports.

  The percentage of corn areas in drought increased by one percent this week, according to the latest Drought Monitor, with 32 percent of the area experiencing some level of drought. Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions has maintained that parts of the Corn Belt could see above-average precipitation this winter that would allow for better moisture conditions in the spring.

  Steady rainfall this week continues to benefit developing crops in Brazil and Argentina. Adequate moisture levels favors crop emergence and development in Argentina.

  SOYBEANS
  Selling momentum continued to send soybean futures lower this week, with the March contract losing another 6.75 cents to close at $10.62. Prices have been falling back into their old consolidation range that stretched from September 2024 until the Trump-Xi meeting in October.

  Traders have likely been liquidating long positions that were built up from the China trade announcement. Speculators held one of the largest net-long positions in November as speculative buying drove the price surge.

  The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 134,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year.

  Like corn, soybean crop development has been progressing under favorable conditions in South America. Argentina’s soybean planting is nearly three-quarters complete, with much of the crop experiencing adequate to optimal soil moisture.

  WHEAT
  March Chicago wheat futures were steady on Thursday but held near their recent contract lows. Prices continued to test the area just above the key $5 mark. Meanwhile, KC wheat futures surged 9.25 cents higher yesterday after avoiding new contract lows.

  The physical wheat market remains well supplied as harvest continues in the southern hemisphere.

  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange boosted its 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 27.1 MMT, up 6.3 percent from the previous estimate. The exchange has been reporting exceptional yields compared to historical averages and noted that it will not rule out another increase as the harvest progresses.

  The European Union raised its 2025/26 soft wheat production forecast slightly this month to 134.4 MMT, which is 21.1 percent higher than the previous season. Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production estimate again to 88.8 MMT. The firm and USDA currently have production at the third-best on record.
  —

  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

• 

  Corn rebounds on demand, soybeans under pressure

  Corn futures extended their rebound from multi-week lows on Thursday as the market ran out of sellers near the lower end of their trading range. March corn traded about a nickel higher to about $4.45 a bushel by midday on Thursday. Prices climbed back above the 100-day moving average, where a close above the indicator…

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  December 18, 2025

  Corn futures extended their rebound from multi-week lows on Thursday as the market ran out of sellers near the lower end of their trading range. March corn traded about a nickel higher to about $4.45 a bushel by midday on Thursday. Prices climbed back above the 100-day moving average, where a close above the indicator could be positive.

  

  Prices remain in a broader sideways trading range between $4.35 and $4.50. Bullish demand dynamics could keep prices supported above the low end of that range.

  The EIA reported that ethanol production hit a new record last week of 1.131 million barrels per day during the week ending Dec. 12. The previous high was set on Nov. 28. Ethanol producers have access to ample corn supplies following this year’s harvest.

  Exports continue to outperform previous seasons, with total shipments 69 percent ahead of last year. The recent break in corn futures could have helped spur some additional flash sales we saw earlier in the week.

  Soybean futures have been less positive, as prices continued to push lower as the goes on. March soybeans traded more than 5 cents lower, nearing $10.60. Prices traded below the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. Futures have struggled to find support since closing their Oct. 27 breakaway gap.

  

  China is believed to have bought at least 7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans so far, more than half of the 12 MMT the White House said China would buy by the end of February. Bloomberg cited anonymous sources, which aligns with sentiment from StoneX and its sources. Still, the market has struggled to find more willing buyers, which alludes to the idea that China stepping in with purchases is not enough to support total demand.

  The White Housing pushing back its announcement of finalized biofuel policy for the next two years has also weighed on the soybean complex.

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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.