Tag: Soybeans

Morning Grain Comments – February 6, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are higher in an attempt to recover from this week’s losses. CORN Corn futures posted strong gains on Thursday, with the March contract closing 5.50 cents higher to $4.35 a bushel. Prices closed…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 6, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are higher in an attempt to recover from this week’s losses.

CORN
Corn futures posted strong gains on Thursday, with the March contract closing 5.50 cents higher to $4.35 a bushel. Prices closed just above an old support level in an attempt to re-enter an old sideways trading range.

U.S. corn exports were more disappointing last week compared to the past few reports. Net sales totaled 1.04 MMT during the week ending Jan. 29, down from 1.65 MMT the previous week. Still, total commitments remain more than 50 percent higher than a year ago.

Corn conditions in Argentina held steady over the past week, with 44 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition. Harvest has begun for early corn in the north.

Later-planted corn in southern agricultural areas have been impacted by a lack of moisture. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop forecast to 57 MMT, down 1 million. Output is still expected to increase 16 percent from the previous season.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures rallied for a second day on Thursday, with March futures trading 20 cents higher to $11.12 ¼. Prices received follow-through buying after closing just above mid-range on Wednesday.

Old crop soybeans have gained more than 50 cents this week, led by news that China will up its U.S. soybean commitments to 20 MMT for this season. That has yet to be confirmed by China, but the 12 MMT pledge was achieved without an official confirmation. China typically leans on Brazilian soybeans during this time of the year.

U.S. soybean export sales fell to a marketing-year low of 437,300 MT during the week ending Jan. 29. Commitments have yet to catch up to last year and have a chance to do so if China purchases the additional 8 MMT.

Argentina’s soybeans rated in good/excellent condition fell by 8.6 percentage points this week to 40 percent. That still compared to just 20 percent the same week last year. Soybean areas are expected to receive above average rainfall over the next two weeks, though crops are entering critical stages under moisture deficits.

WHEAT
Wheat futures finally were able to benefit from optimism in the grain market on Thursday. March Chicago wheat traded 8.50 cents higher to close at $5.35 ¼. Prices climbing back above the 100-day moving average is positive.

Prices could re-test the Jan. 30 high of $5.45. A failure to clear that level could trigger additional fund selling.

The latest U.S. drought monitor showed that winter wheat areas in drought increased to 43 percent this past week. Drought coverage is 2 percent higher than the previous week and 20 percent higher than a year ago.

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian wheat stocks at the end of December totaled 27.5 million tons, up 5.9 percent year-over-year. Supplies surged during the period following a record harvest in the previous season.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 5, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady after posting gains overnight gains. Crude oil is down sharply following yesterday’s moderate gains. CORN March corn futures posted modest gains on Wednesday after trading 1 cent higher to $4.29 ½. Prices had followed soybeans higher, but struggled…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 5, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is steady after posting gains overnight gains. Crude oil is down sharply following yesterday’s moderate gains.

CORN
March corn futures posted modest gains on Wednesday after trading 1 cent higher to $4.29 ½. Prices had followed soybeans higher, but struggled to catch a stronger bid.

A move above $4.34 would be a positive signal for the corn market. However, sideways trade between $4.17 and $4.34 seems more likely if the corn market doesn’t receive additional bullish drivers beyond strong demand.

U.S. ethanol production plunged 14.2 percent last week to an average of 956,000 barrels a day. Output was also 14 percent lower than the same week last year, as cold temperatures impacted operations.

The estimated corn crushed for ethanol last week was about 92 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year rose to approximately 2.314 billion bushels, reaching 41 percent of the USDA’s target. Ethanol stocks fell 1 percent last week to 25.1 million barrels.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans rallied about 40 cents early on Wednesday before closing 26.50 cents higher at $10.92 ¼. Prices closed well off there highs after the rally likely triggered considerable farmer selling.

Futures extended gains, trying to hold above the $11 handle for the first time since prices surged in November. President Trump posted on social media that China said it would buy up to 20 MMT of U.S. soybeans this season, up from the current 12 MMT.

An additional 8 MMT in Chinese purchases would add up to 315 million bushels of demand, which could help tighten the U.S. balance sheet somewhat. That increase could also cause non-China buyers to look to Brazil for cheaper supplies, as the market would likely try to ration demand with higher U.S. prices.

Additionally, the president said China is considering purchases of 25 MMT next season. However, the 25 MMT China could buy over the next three years is still 4 MMT short of the five-year average.

WHEAT
Wheat futures struggled to find buyers on Wednesday despite gains in corn and soybeans. March Chicago wheat traded 2 cents lower to $5.26 ¾.

Wheat has struggled this week to gather upside momentum following last weeks positive trade on the back of winterkill risks. There is little news that would help trigger a second short-covering rallying similar to last week’s gains.

Russia’s deputy prime minister said that the country produced 93 MMT of wheat this past season. Output was near a record despite unfavorable weather conditions. Recent cold air may have caused some damage to winter wheat in the Black Sea recently.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
U.S. soy crush stays strong as oil stocks rebuild

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 230 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 5.5 percent year-over-year. Crushings came in just below the average Bloomberg survey analyst estimate of 230.5 million bushels. Year-to-date crushings for the marketing year reached 892.5 million bushels, sitting 7.5 percent higher than the previous season. Soybean oil stocks at the end of…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 3, 2026

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 230 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 5.5 percent year-over-year. Crushings came in just below the average Bloomberg survey analyst estimate of 230.5 million bushels. Year-to-date crushings for the marketing year reached 892.5 million bushels, sitting 7.5 percent higher than the previous season.

Soybean oil stocks at the end of December totaled 2.18 billion pounds, rising 29 percent year-over-year. Softening U.S. soybean oil demand internationally and domestically has led to recovering supplies. Stalled growth in soybean oil used in biomass-based diesel production has been a driving factor. But higher soybean oil prices also deterred demand from international buyers.

Soybean meal inventories at the end of the month totaled 350,800 metric tons, down 15.3 percent year-over-year. Soybean meal production remained well above year-ago levels with strong crush values, ultimately challenging prices this winter.

Combined soybean crushings (January-November) for the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina totaled 149.6 million metric tons. That is up 1.5% above the previous season. The growth can be primarily attributed to U.S. crushings, which are running 7.4% ahead of last year, while Argentina crush has experienced 2.3% growth during that time frame.

Interestingly, soybean crushings in Brazil are running nearly 6% below last year despite record production last season. That means the majority of excess bushels have been exported rather than crushed domestically, largely due to the fact that Brazil doesn’t have the same processing infrastructure as the U.S. and Argentina.

Still, strong crush numbers between the three nations have kept a lid on global prices despite the sharp run-up in November. But demand for meal, particularly in the U.S. has been consistent, as seen in weekly USDA reports.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 3, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is up slightly after rebounding higher to start the week. Crush oil is moderately higher following yesterday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are mixed. CORN March corn traded lower for a second session on Monday, losing 2.50 cents to close at…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 3, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is up slightly after rebounding higher to start the week. Crush oil is moderately higher following yesterday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are mixed.

CORN
March corn traded lower for a second session on Monday, losing 2.50 cents to close at $4.25 ¾. Prices are likely to consolidate this week below last week’s high around $4.34.

More bullish news that offers a material change to the U.S. balance sheet may be needed to push corn back into its old range above $4.35. Yesterday, we released an analysis on corn exports, arguing that the USDA has room to increase the corn export forecast. However, any increase could be offset by declines in feed/residual usage.

U.S. corn crushings for ethanol totaled 488.3 million bushels in December, up 1.8 percent year-over-year. That was the highest monthly volume since December 2017, which was a record. Year-to-date crushings for the marketing year reached 1.865 billion bushels, up 0.7 percent from a year ago.

SOYBEANS
Soybean futures closed 4 cents lower on Monday at $10.60 ¼ a bushel, though prices fought off their lows from the day. Positive momentum continued overnight, with futures pushing back above mid-range.

Soybean oil futures surged overnight after President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a trade deal with India yesterday. There is no breakdown of what products could see the most benefit, but India has been known to import U.S. soy oil.

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 230 million bushels of soybeans in December, up 5.5 percent year-over-year. Year-to-date crushings for the marketing year reached 892.5 million bushels, sitting 7.5 percent higher than the previous season.

StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 181.62 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 177.61 MMT. The harvest outlook remains positive despite some areas showing variability.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat fell sharply on Monday, losing 10.25 cents to close at $5.27 ¾ a bushel. Prices slipped back below the 100-day moving average after containing the selling last week.

Hedging pressure likely pressured prices after hitting a two-month high last week. Large global supplies are a known fundamental for the market, so traders may be looking for the next piece of news that the market can perceive as a bullish factor.

Winter wheat conditions improved slightly in Kansas over the past month. The USDA estimates that 61 percent of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition, up one percent from January. Meanwhile, ratings declined in Oklahoma, Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Warmer temperatures are expected to spread across the Plains and remain over the next two weeks.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – February 2, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to rebound this morning following last year’s four-year low. Crude oil futures fell sharply overnight. Stock futures are mostly lower. CORN March corn finished a modest 2.25 cents lower last week to close at $4.28 ¼ a bushel. Prices had…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

February 2, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to rebound this morning following last year’s four-year low. Crude oil futures fell sharply overnight. Stock futures are mostly lower.

CORN
March corn finished a modest 2.25 cents lower last week to close at $4.28 ¼ a bushel. Prices had attempted to extend their gains from the previous week. Futures traded up to major chart resistance and failed to climb back into their old range before dropping on technical selling.

Pressure continued into Monday, with last week’s highs so far turning out to be the top end of a new range at current levels.

The federal government entered a partial shutdown on Saturday as Congress failed to pass an appropriations bill before funding expired for most agencies after Jan. 30. USDA should not be as impacted due the agency being funded through the rest of the fiscal year in the appropriations bill passed in November.

Limited rainfall remained in the forecasts for Argentina’s primary corn-growing areas. Crop ratings have declined substantially with the ongoing dry spell. However, conditions are better than the previous season due to optimal soil moisture during planting.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that Brazil’s winter corn planting reached 10 percent complete, compared to 14 percent the same week last year. Progress in Mato Grosso is ahead of last year’s pace but behind the five-year average.

SOYBEANS
Like corn, soybeans failed to clear above technical resistance areas last week, with farmer selling likely adding some pressure. March soybeans traded finished 3.50 cents lower last week at $10.64 ¼.

To some surprise, some of those gains were driven by real buyers stepping in rather than just speculative short-covering. Short-covering was more prominent in the soybean oil market due to headline risk regarding biofuel policy.

The USDA will release U.S. soybean crush data for December this afternoon. Soybean processing is expected to have totaled 230.5 million bushels, falling short of the October record of 236.3 million.

AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 10 percent complete, tracking one percent ahead of a year ago. Progress in Mato Grosso is running at the fastest pace in the last five years.

WHEAT
Wheat futures performed the best out of the grain markets last week, with the March Chicago contract finishing 11.50 cents higher at $5.38 a bushel, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains.

Prices managed to climb to a four-month high and held above the 100-day moving average, a key technical level, for the first time since November. As stated last week, a notable move above the level could trigger additional buying.

During the week ending Jan. 27, money managers were heavy buyers of SRW wheat contracts, driven mostly by speculative short-covering. Much of the buying had been due to concerns over extreme cold in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea last week.

EU wheat prices climbed to a two-month high on Friday, tracking prices in Chicago higher. HRW wheat prices have had the strongest increase among global competitors.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Monthly Grain Trade – November 2025

U.S. corn exports totaled 7.305 million metric tons (MMT) in November, up 55 percent compared to a year ago. That was the largest monthly total since last April. Mexico remained the top importer for U.S. corn, followed by Japan and South Korea. Cumulative shipments for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 reached 20.85…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 30, 2026

U.S. corn exports totaled 7.305 million metric tons (MMT) in November, up 55 percent compared to a year ago. That was the largest monthly total since last April. Mexico remained the top importer for U.S. corn, followed by Japan and South Korea. Cumulative shipments for the marketing year that began on Sept. 1 reached 20.85 MMT, sitting nearly 60 percent above the same period last year.

For the marketing year that began in September, shipments to Mexico are largely unchanged compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, substantial growth compared to last season has been observed for exports to Japan, South Korea, as well as the rest of the world.

U.S. soybean exports in November totaled 4.293 MMT, falling 56 percent from the same month last year. That was the lowest November print since 2007 amid reduced demand, particularly from China. Mexico was the top importer for the month, with shipments totaling 549,000 metric tons (MT). Italy was the No. 2 destination at 471,700 MT.

Year-to-date shipments for the season reached 12.5 MMT, falling 44 percent from the same period last year. The lack of demand from China weighed heavily on exports since the beginning of the season. Demand outside of China has been higher this year, with higher year-over-year shipments to Italy, Egypt, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Wheat exports totaled 1.617 MMT in November, up 14 percent from a year ago. Shipments were down for a second month as the primary shipping window closed for the season. Indonesia surpassed Mexico as the top export destination for the month after scooping up 252,000 MT. Mexico was the second-largest destination, followed by Nigeria and Japan.

Year-to-date exports for the marketing year reached 22.76 MMT, rising 23 percent above the previous season. Additionally, exports are running at their fastest pace in the past five years, as lower prices drove demand for U.S. wheat. Mexico has been a primary contributor to that growth. Larger shipments to Bangladesh, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia were also a factor.

The U.S. Census Bureau will issue December trade data on Feb. 19. Data reporting should return to its normal schedule in March.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 30, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher as it continued its modest recovery from the lowest in nearly four years. Crude oil is slightly lower following this week’s surge. Stock futures continued to back off their highs. CORN March corn traded a modest 0.75 cents higher…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 30, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher as it continued its modest recovery from the lowest in nearly four years. Crude oil is slightly lower following this week’s surge. Stock futures continued to back off their highs.

CORN
March corn traded a modest 0.75 cents higher on Thursday to close at $4.30 ¾ after struggling to hold intraday highs for a second session. Prices have retraced about 50 percent of their losses from the report day washout that took futures to the lowest in nearly five months.

The market has been showing more resilience over the past week, as minor pullbacks have found buyers. However, prices may struggle to move back into their tighter trading range above $5.35.

U.S. ethanol exports continued to operate at a record in November. Year-to-date shipments now total 1.96 billion gallons, and are on pace to exceed 2 billion gallons for the first time.

Rainfall reached parts of western Buenos Aires and southern Córdoba, helping to improve soil moisture for late-planted corn in Argentina. Corn crop conditions continued to decline, with just 46 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 52 percent last week.

SOYBEANS
March soybeans closed 2.75 cents lower at $10.72 ¼ on Thursday after rejecting a move above resistance for a second session. Poor closes the past two days set the market up for weaker trade headed into Friday’s session.

Soybean oil has been losing steam for its recent rally, with prices rolling over the past couple of sessions. Much of the rally had been driven by speculative short-covering amid an unwillingness to hold shorts ahead of key biofuel announcements.

The Brazilian real rallied to nearly a two-year high, helping improve export competitiveness for non-China buyers. Yesterday’s export sales data showed that soybean exports and commitments remain low compared to previous years, but demand from non-China countries is at a seven-year high.

Soybean conditions continued to deteriorate in Argentina, with 47 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 53 percent last week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said additional rainfall in key areas is needed as a third of the soybean crop enters critical stages.

WHEAT
March Chicago wheat traded 5.50 cents higher on Thursday, and closed near the top end of its daily range at $541 ½. Higher trade over the past few sessions has been driven mostly by speculative short-covering.

Futures are headed for their best month of gains in nearly two years amid a weaker dollar and recent crop concerns. Worries over frost damage helped lift futures to the highest in about two months.

Zooming out, it’s unclear how long the bullish sentiment will last, as there are no clear signals for significant downgrades in the global supply outlook. Weak fundamentals remain in place following record harvests across the globe.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
U.S. grain export sales back off from highs

U.S. grain export sales normalized last week after a huge week of sales across the board. U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Jan. 22 totaled 1.65 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes remained above the same week last year amid continued demand from key buyers. Japan rose to the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 29, 2026

U.S. grain export sales normalized last week after a huge week of sales across the board. U.S. corn export sales during the week ending Jan. 22 totaled 1.65 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 marketing year. Volumes remained above the same week last year amid continued demand from key buyers. Japan rose to the top seat for last week’s sales, followed closely by Mexico.

Exports last week rose 17 percent to 1.67 MMT, hitting a one-month high. Volumes were primarily destined for Mexico, Japan, and Spain. Accumulated exports reached 32.08 MMT, up 53 percent year-over-year. Total exports and commitments rose to 57.69 MMT, sitting 33 percent higher than a year ago.

U.S. soybean export sales fell 67 percent last week to 819,000 MT for the 2025/26 season. Volumes fell back near their typical range but remained above the five-year average. China remained the top buyer for the week despite the large drop in purchases. Egypt and Mexico also made it on the top five list. The pace of outstanding sales has been running counterseasonal, compared to the past five-years due to late sales to China.

Exports fell 5 percent from the previous week to 1.27 MMT, led by shipments to China, Spain, and Mexico. Accumulated shipments rose to 20.54 MMT, still sitting about 38 percent below the previous season. Non-China exports are running at their fastest pace out of the past five years, but are still not enough to make up for the lack of Chinese demand early in the season. Total soybean exports and commitments reached 33.85 MMT, running 21 percent below last season and the slowest since the 2019/20 marketing year.

Soybean meal export sales rose 13 percent last week to 464,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/26. The Philippines was the top buyer for the week, followed by Colombia and Mexico. Sales were above the five-year average for the week, as steady demand remained for meal.

Exports fell 32 percent from the previous week to 330,600 MT. Shipments were primarily destined to the Philippines, Mexico, and Colombia. Accumulated exports rose to 5.48 MMT, up 19 percent from the previous season. Total exports and commitments continued to operate at a record pace, running 11.5 percent ahead of last year.

All wheat export sales fell 10 percent from the previous week to 558,200 MT for the current marketing year, though volumes remained well above the four-week average. Sales picked up again this month after slowing in previous weeks. Japan was the top buyer for the week, followed by Mexico and Nigeria. Net sales for the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 21,400 MT, with sales reported for unknown buyers and Mexico.

Weekly exports rose 2 percent to 378,800 MT, primarily led by shipments to South Korea, Mexico, and Nigeria. Accumulated shipments reached 16.12 MMT, up 21 percent year-over-year. HRW wheat exports have been the primary driver of the growth, as exports are nearly double last year’s volumes. All wheat exports and commitments are also running 18 percent ahead of last season.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 29, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its modest recovery after falling near a four-year low on Tuesday. Crude oil surged yet again overnight. Stock futures are higher. CORN Corn futures climbed sharply higher on Wednesday and approached old support areas, though prices settled off their highs…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 29, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued its modest recovery after falling near a four-year low on Tuesday. Crude oil surged yet again overnight. Stock futures are higher.

CORN
Corn futures climbed sharply higher on Wednesday and approached old support areas, though prices settled off their highs and only gained 3.50 cents on the day to close at $4.30 a bushel.

Futures once again challenged those levels overnight, attempting to retrace their sharp losses from the Jan. 12 data dump.

The recent surge in crude oil is likely having some positive effects on the grain market after reaching the highest level in about six months. That will likely benefit ethanol demand, where production continued to hold at a record pace last week.

The USDA reported corn export sales for the week ending Jan. 22 at 1.65 MMT, down from the lofty 4.01 MMT the previous week. Japan rose to the top of the sales sheet last week, followed by Mexico and Colombia.

Weather models point toward continued dryness in major parts of Argentina over the next two weeks. Crop conditions from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange later today are expected to show further decreases in conditions for developing crops.

SOYBEANS
March soybean futures rallied to resistance levels on Wednesday, but a failure to hold onto those gains left prices 7.75 cents higher at $10.75. Futures did run up to resistance again overnight, with bean meal futures providing some help.

U.S. soybean export sales fell from their marketing-year high last week to 819,000 MT. China remained the largest buyer, but sales were disappointing compared to the previous week.

The four-year low in the U.S. dollar this week will likely help some soybean export demand among non-China buyers. Brazil’s soybeans are still competitively priced against the U.S.

Weather concerns in South American, particularly Argentina, could continue to support soybeans through this week. Global soybean crush remains high among major exports.

WHEAT
The wheat complex continued to lead the grains higher this week, with March Chicago wheat trading 12.75 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.36 a bushel.

Much of this week’s gains have likely been speculative short-covering. As noted earlier this week, a move above the 100-day moving average could trigger additional buying, which continued to occur overnight.

Export sales during the week ending Jan. 22 remained strong despite declining on the week. Volumes totaled 579,600 MT and held above the five-year average. Large sales were reported for Japan, Mexico, and Nigeria.

U.S. HRW wheat export prices have been rallying compared to other global competitors over the past month. Demand for HRW wheat has been higher than other major varieties recently, as accounted for a large portion of last week’s sales.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 28, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar recovered from recent lows. Crude oil continued to push higher. Stock futures are higher, with the S&P 500 trading at a record. CORN March corn traded another 1.75 cents lower on Tuesday to close at $4.26 ½. Prices pushed back toward…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 28, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar recovered from recent lows. Crude oil continued to push higher. Stock futures are higher, with the S&P 500 trading at a record.

CORN
March corn traded another 1.75 cents lower on Tuesday to close at $4.26 ½. Prices pushed back toward last week’s highs, attempting to negate losses from the past two sessions.

Perhaps helping the market this morning was President Trump’s comments last night in support of year-round E15. The administration said it would allow “up to 2 billion more bushels of corn to be consumed domestically” if implemented.

E15 is currently limited to the summer months, however exemptions have become more common in recent years that could limit the impact if passed by Congress.

The weaker U.S. dollar could finally be having a positive impact on the grain markets after falling to the lowest in more than a year.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans were the most positive yesterday, with the March contract rising 5.50 cents to close at $10.67 ½. Soybean oil led those gains, as prices continued to develop a firmer tone.

Soybean futures climbed another 11 cents higher overnight and poked above the 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-December.

The market may be cautiously optimistic that the Trump administration will release favorable biofuel policy over the next few weeks or months. However, prices may need to climb above $10.72 to avoid more range-bound trade.

The ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest, which is expected to be a record, could continue to limit gains in the soybean complex.

WHEAT
Wheat futures were steady on Tuesday, with the March Chicago contract rising 0.75 cents to $5.23 ¼. Prices rose back to Monday’s highs just below the 100-day moving average.

Again, a move above the level could help trigger additional short-covering, through gains could be limited by bearish fundamentals. The wheat market has been working to hold their established lows, which is more defined in the HRW wheat contracts.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 45.7 MMT, up 1.1 million due to a strong shipment pace and higher crop production estimates. December wheat shipments were the highest for the month in eight years.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – January 27, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following losses from the previous session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight after falling to the lowest since early September to start the week. Crude oil is sharply higher and pushing to the upper end of its range. Stock futures are mixed. CORN Corn futures…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 27, 2026

Grains and oilseeds are mostly higher on Tuesday following losses from the previous session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight after falling to the lowest since early September to start the week. Crude oil is sharply higher and pushing to the upper end of its range. Stock futures are mixed.

CORN
Corn futures pulled back from their recent highs on Monday, as the market became more cautious following Friday’s rally. March corn traded 2.25 cents lower to close at $4.28 ¼, holding above the old support level around $4.25.

The market could begin to establish a trading range at current levels, with Monday’s high serving as the top end of that range.

President Trump is speaking in Iowa today and is expected to kick off support for the midterm elections in November. While his speech is expected to focus on the economy, Trump may mention biofuel policy, which has yet to be finalized by the EPA, as well as the Treasury Department’s 45Z rule.

The USDA confirmed on Tuesday that private exporters sold 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. Additionally, 306,000 MT of sorghum sales were reported for unknown buyers, likely China.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans experienced a technically bearish day on Monday. March futures traded nearly 10 cents higher before reversing and closing 6 cents lower at $10.61 ¾.

Farmers selling grain likely added some downward pressure as prices approached technical resistance. Slipping back below the October breakout last month could make it more difficult for futures to rally.

The ongoing soybean harvest in Brazil will likely keep a lid on prices for the short term. Yields are expected to be average this season. However, the monster production estimates continue to be driven by record plantings in the country.

Chinese importers booked at least 25 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil for March and April delivery. Meanwhile, state-owned companies are refraining from buying additional U.S. tons after reportedly fulfilling the 12 MMT commitment.

WHEAT
Wheat futures posted a strong reversal day, with the March Chicago contract traded nearly 11 cents lower than their high for the day. Prices found resistance at the 100-day moving average, which will likely serve as a technical level for the near term.

Concern over the recent cold blast seemed to have cooled after initially spooking short positions out of the market late last week.

Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions noted in our weekly Farmer Forecast interview that a large portion of the U.S. could have plenty of access to cold air moving through February. That is expected to bring drier-than-average conditions throughout the month.

Russia’s agriculture minister said the country exported 41 MMT of wheat in 2025, with much of the grain going to Africa and the Middle East. Russia plans to continue boosting grain production over the next few years, which could expand its market share in global exports.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Grain export inspections steady last week

U.S. grain export inspections were relatively stable last week, according to the latest USDA data released on Monday. Corn movements rose about 2 percent from the previous week to 1.51 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were about 80 percent higher than the same week last year as plenty of bushels continued to be shipped to…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 26, 2026

U.S. grain export inspections were relatively stable last week, according to the latest USDA data released on Monday. Corn movements rose about 2 percent from the previous week to 1.51 million metric tons (MMT). Volumes were about 80 percent higher than the same week last year as plenty of bushels continued to be shipped to key buyers.

Mexico was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn during the week. Japan, Spain, Colombia, and Portugal were also in the top five. Accumulated corn shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year rose to 31.44 MMT, up 53.3 percent year-over-year.

Soybean export inspections fell by about 2 percent last week to 1.32 MMT. Volumes were above year-ago levels for a third consecutive week, driven by stronger shipments to China.

China accounted for more than half of the inspections last week. Meanwhile, Mexico and Italy were in the top five. Year-to-date inspections rose to 20.67 MMT, sitting 37.5 percent lower than the previous season. Additionally, inspections are the slowest since the 2013/14 season.

U.S. wheat export inspections fell 12 percent to 351,000 metric tons (MT). Volumes were also 28 percent lower than the same week last year as export sales trickled lower this winter. Seasonally, inspections should begin to rise over the next few months.

South Korea was the largest destination for U.S. wheat during the week, followed by Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines. Mexico remains the largest importer of U.S. wheat for the current season, followed by the Philippines. Other countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia have seen larger increases in imports compared to the previous year.

Accumulated inspections for the season rose to 16.33 MMT, up 18 percent year-over-year. Inspections are running at the fastest pace since the 2020/21 season.

Sorghum export inspections fell 28 percent from the previous week to 126,000 MT. Volumes remained sharply higher than a year ago despite the week-over-week decline. China was the largest importer of sorghum during the week, though volumes were also reported for Spain and Japan. Year-to-date inspections are now just 5.7 percent below last season at 1.31 MMT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.