Tag: Cotton

Grain exports surge in October, soybeans lag

The U.S. Census Bureau released its October trade data on Thursday as the agency continues to catch up on data reporting. U.S. corn exports totaled 6.56 million metric tons (MMT) in October, up 62 percent year-over-year. Mexico was the top import destination during the month, accounting for 32 percent of the total. Colombia, South Korea,…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 9, 2026

The U.S. Census Bureau released its October trade data on Thursday as the agency continues to catch up on data reporting. U.S. corn exports totaled 6.56 million metric tons (MMT) in October, up 62 percent year-over-year. Mexico was the top import destination during the month, accounting for 32 percent of the total. Colombia, South Korea, and Japan were also among the list of top buyers.

Mexico has been leading with U.S. corn exports this season. The country accounts for nearly 35 percent of total shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year. Japan is in the No. 2 seat, followed by Colombia and South Korea. Accumulated corn shipments rose to 13.54 MMT. The Census data confirms the strong pace of U.S. grain exports this season.

U.S. soybean exports totaled 5.36 MMT in October, down 43 percent from October 2024. Mexico was the top export destination for the month, followed by Egypt and Pakistan. The U.S. exported zero tons to China for a fifth consecutive month.

Total soybean exports for the season are running 34 percent behind the previous year at 8.22 MMT. The lack of demand from China weighed heavily on exports since the beginning of the season. Mexico came in as the top export destination this season in China’s absence. Egypt stepped up its buying of U.S. soybeans, nearly tripling its purchases from the same period last year. Major growth in exports to other countries included Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Wheat exports totaled 1.96 MMT in October, up 38 percent from a year ago. Shipments were down sharply from the previous month as the prime export window closed following the winter wheat harvest. Mexico was the top export destination during the month, accounting for about 45 percent of total shipments.

Year-to-date exports that began on July 1 reached 10.19 MMT, climbing 24 percent from a year ago. Mexico has been a primary contributor to that growth. Larger shipments to Bangladesh, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Colombia were also a factor.

U.S. cotton exports totaled 170,200 metric tons (MT) in October, up 35 percent year-over-year. Shipments were well above previous years during the month, led by a strong push to India after the country bought significant volumes at the beginning of the marketing year. Shipments to Vietnam also increased from the previous month.

Accumulated exports for the marketing year that began on Aug. one are now running 14 percent ahead of last season. Exports have been running ahead of last year’s pace despite total commitments sitting at multi-year lows. So far, export growth has been seen for countries like Vietnam and India. Shipments to Pakistan fell more than 50 percent compared to last season.

The U.S. Census Bureau will issue November trade data on January 29, though the release of December statistics remains unscheduled.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton slips back as bearish fundamentals cap rally

Cotton futures worked lower this week after extending gains above their recent trading range. March cotton traded about 20 points lower by midday on Thursday. Prices bounced off a minor support area of 64.45 cents a pound before recovering some losses. Prices had attempted to trade sharply higher earlier this week, with futures topping 65.76…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 8, 2026

Cotton futures worked lower this week after extending gains above their recent trading range. March cotton traded about 20 points lower by midday on Thursday. Prices bounced off a minor support area of 64.45 cents a pound before recovering some losses.

Prices had attempted to trade sharply higher earlier this week, with futures topping 65.76 cents before erasing gains. U.S. market fundamentals remain bearish due to rising ending stocks.

The USDA will release its January WASDE report on Monday. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the agency to increase the 2025/26 ending stocks forecast slightly from December. U.S. exports could be reduced further due to slow demand from key buyers.

Cottongrower.com released acreage survey results for the upcoming season. U.S. producers are expected to leave acreage mostly unchanged this spring at about 9 million acres. If realized, that would be the smallest acreage since 2015.

Winter weather conditions are setting the stage for a drier start to the spring. While strong yields kept total production relatively steady last year, persistent drought conditions could dig into production potential this upcoming season.

Brazil’s cotton exports hit a record 452,000 metric tons in December, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Year-to-date shipments are up 15.5 percent from the previous marketing year at 1.4 million metric tons. Brazil has been able to capture export share while U.S. exports have struggled this season.

Record production over the past few years allowed Brazil to increase exports and position itself as a global supplier. Meanwhile, U.S. exports have been losing its global share. Total exports and commitments for the current season reached 6.6 million bales, the slowest pace since the 2016/17 marketing year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton futures surge as speculators cover shorts

Cotton futures shrugged overnight and into Tuesday morning amid technical buying. March cotton traded 100 points higher to 65.76 cents a pound by midday. Speculative short-covering likely drove the buying overnight after prices pushed above the Nov. 28 high of 64.95 cents. The level had capped gains last week due to strong bearish pressure. The…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 6, 2026

Cotton futures shrugged overnight and into Tuesday morning amid technical buying. March cotton traded 100 points higher to 65.76 cents a pound by midday. Speculative short-covering likely drove the buying overnight after prices pushed above the Nov. 28 high of 64.95 cents. The level had capped gains last week due to strong bearish pressure.

The latest Commitment of Traders data showed that commercial traders were net sellers of cotton the last week of December. Traders had been heavy sellers on a net basis since mid-October.

The commercial selling could trigger additional speculative short-covering that could help prices peak above resistance levels. Fundamentally, the U.S. and global supply and demand outlooks are bearish. Moving through the winter, the market will continue to sort out planting expectations for the upcoming season in the U.S., India, and Brazil.

China finished its cotton harvest this fall, producing a record 6.17 million metric tons (MMT) due to higher seedings and great yields, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That has led to reduced imports, which have particularly hurt U.S. demand.

In the U.S., the cotton belt has seen increased moisture deficits over the past month amid a lack of rainfall in the region. The latest Drought Monitor showed that 62 percent of cotton areas are under some form of drought, compared to just 20 percent last year.

“Sunbelt dryness needs to be watched through the remainder of winter,” Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions said in a weekly report.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton prices carve out range near contract lows

U.S. cotton futures are beginning to carve out a trading range near contract lows. March cotton traded 26 points lower to 64.01 cents a pound on Monday. Prices rejected a move above resistance levels late last week and early this week after rising as high as 64.81 last Friday. Futures are establishing a range between…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

January 2, 2026

U.S. cotton futures are beginning to carve out a trading range near contract lows. March cotton traded 26 points lower to 64.01 cents a pound on Monday. Prices rejected a move above resistance levels late last week and early this week after rising as high as 64.81 last Friday. Futures are establishing a range between 63 and 65 cents.

Speculators have been exiting short positions since mid-October but have also been adding new long positions along the way. Money managers were net buyers of 8,235 cotton contracts during the week ending Dec. 23, according to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report. The agency caught up on its reporting this week after the government shutdown delayed data.

Large commercial selling has capped gains over the past month, holding bearish pressure over the market. The cotton market’s inability to rally has been linked to limited demand for U.S. supplies and global competition.

Producers heavily reduced planted acreage last year, but the declining exports have continued to leave producers with lower prices. Cotton futures on a continuous basis fell about 6 percent in 2025.

The USDA announced the payment rates for crops eligible for relief under the Farm Bridge Assistance program. Eligible cotton producers will receive up to $117.35 per acre by Feb. 28.

Brazilian farmers began planting cotton in Mato Grosso last month. Progress reached nearly 1 percent complete, which was behind last year’s pace and the five-year average.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton holds recent gains, struggles near resistance

Cotton futures struggled to trade higher to begin this week but have broadly held onto recent gains. March cotton traded slightly lower on Tuesday and closed at 64.32 cents a pound. Prices benefited from lighter trade with the holiday last week as traders took profits from recent contract lows. Technically, current resistance stands around the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 30, 2025

Cotton futures struggled to trade higher to begin this week but have broadly held onto recent gains. March cotton traded slightly lower on Tuesday and closed at 64.32 cents a pound. Prices benefited from lighter trade with the holiday last week as traders took profits from recent contract lows.

Technically, current resistance stands around the Nov. 28 high of 64.80 cents. Today’s low could serve as near-term support, which is around the bottom of the gap from Friday’s surge.

Consistent lower highs and lower lows since this spring show the market has struggled to shake off its bearish momentum. Unsteady U.S. export demand has been a primary factor as global competition has dug into the U.S. share of global trade. The effects of low global textile demand has seeped into other parts of the world, including Southeast Asia, a major destination for U.S. exports.

Crude oil futures, a global bell weather, recovering from recent eight-month lows could also provide support for the cotton market.

The USDA will release its latest export sales report on Wednesday. The most recent available data shows that export sales have been all over the board, with total commitments still tracking at a multi-year low.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton boosted by pre-holiday technical buying

Cotton futures experienced another round of technical buying on Tuesday to help lift prices away from their recent contract lows. March cotton traded 40 points higher on Tuesday to close at 64 cents a pound. The contract experienced higher gains earlier in the session but, which was likely limited by lighter holiday trade. Overall, trading…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 23, 2025

Cotton futures experienced another round of technical buying on Tuesday to help lift prices away from their recent contract lows. March cotton traded 40 points higher on Tuesday to close at 64 cents a pound. The contract experienced higher gains earlier in the session but, which was likely limited by lighter holiday trade.

Overall, trading has been fairly quiet over the past month amid limited activity at current price levels. Speculators have been covering short positions, but prices continue to be bogged down by heavy commercial selling. The market has been unable to break free of its downtrend, as the charts have been riddled with lower highs and lower lows for most of this year.

The USDA released another round of catch-up data for the weekly export sales report. Cotton sales totaled 319,700 bales during the week ending Dec. 11. Volumes were the second-highest for the marketing year as international buyers stepped in with purchases as futures were near contract lows.

Total exports and commitments remained at the slowest pace since the 2015/16 season amid slowing international demand. The USDA is still a few reports behind following the government shutdown, but up-to-date data will likely show a lackluster export demand picture.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton attempts to stabilize after contract lows

Cotton futures looked to recover over the past couple of sessions after pushing to fresh contract lows this week. March cotton traded moderately higher for a second day on Thursday, with prices hovering around 63.50 cents a pound. Futures posted a fresh contract low of 63.10 on Tuesday. The CFTC is still in catch-up mode…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 18, 2025

Cotton futures looked to recover over the past couple of sessions after pushing to fresh contract lows this week. March cotton traded moderately higher for a second day on Thursday, with prices hovering around 63.50 cents a pound. Futures posted a fresh contract low of 63.10 on Tuesday.

The CFTC is still in catch-up mode with the Commitment of Traders data. During the week ending Dec. 2, money managers were net buyers of 733 cotton futures and options contracts. Funds have covered a substantial amount of short contracts since mid-October.

Despite the speculative buying, strong commercial selling has been pressuring futures. Commercial traders were net sellers of 2,865 contracts during the most recent data period. Large commercial selling has likely been a result of companies offsetting purchases from producers, which has outweighed speculative buying and sending prices to fresh contract lows.

Additionally, the lack of export sales activity has left the U.S. market with an influx of supplies, as lower prices have been unable to spur bargain buying among importers. Chinese demand has been limited, with large exports to Vietnam the only positive factor so far.

The latest Chinese customs data showed that the country imported 120,000 metric tons in November, which was up year-over-year. However, year-to-date imports are running 64 percent behind last year and the slowest pace since the 2016/17 season.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton pauses selling as USDA confirms bearish outlook

Cotton futures recovered slightly on Tuesday as the market attempted to pause recent selling. March cotton traded about 20 points higher ahead of the close at 63.86 cents a pound after struggling to hold onto gains closer to 64 cents. The USDA’s December WASDE report on Tuesday continued to confirm the bearish bias in the…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 9, 2025

Cotton futures recovered slightly on Tuesday as the market attempted to pause recent selling. March cotton traded about 20 points higher ahead of the close at 63.86 cents a pound after struggling to hold onto gains closer to 64 cents.

The USDA’s December WASDE report on Tuesday continued to confirm the bearish bias in the market after showing a more burdensome supply and demand outlook.

The agency raised the U.S. production forecast to 14.27 million bales, up 150,000 from the November report.

On the demand side, domestic cotton milling was reduced by 100,000 bales to 1.6 million, which is the lowest in almost 150 years. U.S. cotton demand depends on exports, largely due to overseas manufacturing in the apparel industry. Cotton exports are forecast to represent nearly 88 percent of total cotton demand for the current 2025/26 marketing year.

With higher production and lower demand, 2025/26 cotton ending stocks were raised to 4.5 million bales, up 200,000 from the previous month. That brought the stocks-to-use ratio to 32.6 percent, representing a burdensome outlook.

Global cotton ending stocks were raised slightly to 75.97 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 64 percent.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton futures resume losing streak in December

Cotton futures traded lower for a sixth consecutive session on Monday as the market continued to struggle with a lack of bullish news. March cotton traded 25 points lower to 63.68 cents a pound on Monday, the lowest close since prices posted new contract lows on Nov. 21. Futures had initially rallied overnight but quickly…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 8, 2025

Cotton futures traded lower for a sixth consecutive session on Monday as the market continued to struggle with a lack of bullish news. March cotton traded 25 points lower to 63.68 cents a pound on Monday, the lowest close since prices posted new contract lows on Nov. 21. Futures had initially rallied overnight but quickly erased gains after the USDA released the latest export sales data.

Last night’s surge could have been a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation ahead of the report. U.S. cotton export sales surged to 389,000 bales during the week ending Nov. 6. Volumes rose well above seasonal averages following months of muted sales. Prices rallying from contract lows at the time likely spurred bargain buyers, particularly Vietnam. Thursday’s export sales data will give us an idea if the strong week of buying was developing a trend or just a flash in the pan.

Delayed Commitment of Traders data released on Friday showed that money managers were net buyers of 7,152 cotton contracts during the week ending Oct. 28. Speculative short-covering drove the buying as traders were taking profits on short positions. However, prices trading up to technical resistance the final week of October gave room for the market to resume its downtrend.

The cotton market continues to search for a bottom and may go for a test of the contract low just above 63 cents. A bullish spark is needed to lift prices out of the low 60s, such as lower global plantings.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Bearish cotton trend persists amid weak exports

Cotton futures traded lower for a third session this week, pausing last week’s recovery from recent contract lows. March cotton traded 11 points lower on Wednesday, with prices falling to 64.46 cents a pound. Trading volume remains very light following the holiday, as there has been little trading interest at these levels. That is likely…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

December 3, 2025

Cotton futures traded lower for a third session this week, pausing last week’s recovery from recent contract lows. March cotton traded 11 points lower on Wednesday, with prices falling to 64.46 cents a pound.

Trading volume remains very light following the holiday, as there has been little trading interest at these levels. That is likely due to limited commercial activity, as well as fund traders holding onto their short positions that were established months ago. Technically, the trend remains bearish as prices post lower highs and lower lows on the charts.

U.S. cotton exports are still expected to face challenges due to strong global competition and slowing demand. China’s declining footprint in global trade has been leading to higher ending stocks in the U.S. and Brazil.

Vietnam, one of the United States’ top cotton export destinations, has been showing signs of slowing its cotton imports this season. Shipments for the first three months of the marketing year (August-October) are down 7 percent from the previous year.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Pakistan, another top U.S. export destination, to have cotton imports decline by 8 percent this season due to challenges in the textile industry.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Bearish pressure holds on cotton market this week

Cotton futures continued their tract to new contract lows to close out the week. March cotton traded nearly 50 points lower overnight to a low of 63.11 cents a pound. Prices had accelerated below the Oct. 14 low over the past week as bearish pressure left buyers on the sideline. While the CFTC has yet…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 20, 2025

Cotton futures continued their tract to new contract lows to close out the week. March cotton traded nearly 50 points lower overnight to a low of 63.11 cents a pound. Prices had accelerated below the Oct. 14 low over the past week as bearish pressure left buyers on the sideline.

While the CFTC has yet to catch up on releasing its Commitment of Traders report, speculators are assumed to be holding a record net short position at these levels. Speculative short-covering could help futures rally once the market signals a bottom.

Meanwhile, there has been a lack of bullish news to help prop the market up. Bearish crude oil prices are negative for the cotton market. Additionally, the rising U.S. dollar is making U.S. cotton less attractive in an already competitive trade environment.

Yesterday’s USDA export sales report showed that cotton export sales totaled 199,000 bales during the week ending Oct. 2. Sales were above the five-year average for the week and strong for the marketing year, though total commitments remained at multi-year lows.

Overall, sales could have been worse over the past couple of report releases. Vietnam has been a steady buyer over the past year. China also did step in with some sales during the week, with purchases totaling 26,500 bales.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Cotton bounces from contract lows on Tuesday

U.S. cotton futures were off to a negative start this week as the market continues to search for a bottom. March cotton traded slightly lower on Monday but still posted a new contract low at 63.80 cents a pound. Futures rebounded here on Tuesday, rising about 40 points higher after the market ran out of…

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

November 18, 2025

U.S. cotton futures were off to a negative start this week as the market continues to search for a bottom. March cotton traded slightly lower on Monday but still posted a new contract low at 63.80 cents a pound. Futures rebounded here on Tuesday, rising about 40 points higher after the market ran out of sellers below 64 cents.

Friday’s bearish WASDE report did the cotton market no favors after raising domestic and global supplies by more than expected. U.S. ending stocks for 2025/26 were raised to 4.3 million bales, up 700,000 bales from the September report. Global 2025/26 ending stocks were raised by 2.8 million bales to 75.9 million, the highest since the 2019/20 season.

The U.S. balance sheet has been trending toward a more burdensome supply and demand situation. The stocks-to-use ratio, which measures the relationship between supply and demand, rose to 31 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 season.

Declining exports have been the largest driver of selling pressure in the U.S. cotton market. Specifically, U.S. exports to China are down significantly due to declining demand in the country.

China’s cotton imports continued to be lackluster in October. The country’s customs agency reported weak shipments last month, with year-to-date imports still running at the slowest pace since 2016.

The USDA released its Crop Progress report for the first time since the government shutdown on Monday. The agency reported that the U.S. cotton harvest reached 71 percent as of Nov. 16. Progress was five percentage points lower than last year but just one point behind the five-year average.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.