Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil jumped again overnight and is trading above $100 a barrel. Stock futures posted a relief rally overnight after breaking below support levels on Friday.
CORN
Front-month May corn futures fell 3.50 cents last week to $4.62 a bushel after struggling to shake pressure from Monday’s selloff. The current uptrend remains intact as pullbacks have been shallower.
Volume and open interest has been shifting over to the July contract over the past few weeks, though the May contract remains the most active.
The market is largely focusing on tomorrow’s USDA reports. We posted the pre-report expectations from Bloomberg on Friday. The grains stocks report could be the larger market mover for putting a number on first-quarter demand.
Read more: USDA planting report to show fewer corn acres, more soybeans
Private exporters reported the flash sale on Monday of 145,000 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural cut its 2025/26 corn production estimate to 135.7 MMT, down from 136.2 MMT. The reduction was largely due to drought and heat in Safrinha corn areas in western Parana.
SOYBEANS
May soybean futures posted minor losses of 2 cents last week despite Friday’s weak trade. Prices have largely been consolidating over the past couple of weeks, with the front-month contract finding resistance around $11.80.
On Friday, the EPA finally released its renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, which came in as friendly as the market expected. As expected, the soybean market faded the announcement, with prices trading about 15 cents lower by the close.
The EPA revised its biomass-based diesel volumes 24 percent higher than the June proposal to 8.86 billion RINS for 2026. The agency said foreign-based feedstocks will only receive half of a compliance credit than American-sourced feedstocks starting in 2028.
Still, the announcement should be friendly to U.S. soybeans and bring more certainty for crushers and biofuel producers.
AgRural reported that 75 percent of Brazil’s soybean harvest was complete as of last week. That compares to 82 percent the same week last year. AgRural said rains continued to slow fieldwork. Still, the firm raised its production estimate slightly to 178.4 MMT.
WHEAT
May Chicago wheat futures largely rebounded from sharply lower trade last month to finish the week 9.75 cents higher at $6.05. Speculative short-covering was the primary driver, particularly in KC wheat contracts.
The ongoing conflict in Iran and increased drought concerns in the U.S. Plains largely supported the wheat complex.
Government forecasts are trying to put precipitation chances in the Plains for this week. However, much of those changes western Kansas and Nebraska. Getting rains to materialize this week will be key in chipping away at drought conditions for areas experiencing deteriorating soil moisture since last fall.
Russian-based research firm SovEcon said Russia’s March wheat exports could reach 4.5 MMT, up from 2.9 MMT in February.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.