The USDA kicked off its 2026 Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday. Part of the annual meeting includes a preliminary look into the upcoming growing season including acres.
The USDA projects corn acreage to fall nearly 5 percent this year to 94 million acres, normalizing from the lofty 98.8 million reported in the previous season. The average yield forecast was pinned at 183 bushels per acre, up from the typical February guess of 181 following record yields reported this past season.
The agency left its 2026/27 corn ethanol use unchanged at 5.6 billion bushels based on unchanged motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual usage was reduced to 6 billion bushels, down 200 million from the current season.
Exports were reduced by 200 million bushels to 3.1 billion. U.S. global trade share is expected to decline slightly on larger competitor exports from South America and modest global demand growth.
Meanwhile, soybean acreage is expected to rise 4.7 percent to 85 million acres. The USDA said expectations for higher soybean acres this spring reflect stronger profitability compared to other crops, as well as normal crop rotations.
The USDA acknowledged higher mandates for the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027. While not finalized, the agency is assuming the use of soybean oil for biofuel will rise in 2026/27, increasing the soybean oil price forecast.
The USDA noted that the forecast in future WASDE reports will be evaluated based on the final RVO rule after its release. Soybean exports are expected to recover next season on the assumption of higher shipments to China. However, the share of U.S. exports in the global market is expected to continue its long-term downward trend due to growing South American supplies.
Wheat acreage is seen declining slightly to 45 million, compared to 45.3 million seen last year. The USDA said combined spring and durum wheat acres are expected to shift slightly in the Northern Plains to prioritize soybeans.
Domestic wheat use is expected to remain unchanged in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, export expectations were lowered by 100 million bushels from the current season. The USDA noted that larger competition from Argentina and Australia will likely challenge U.S. shipments. Additionally, supplies from the Northern Hemisphere in Russia, the EU, and Canada will likely increase competition.
Thursday’s acreage numbers serve as a starting point for the USDA’s outlooks moving forward. The agency will issue its first survey-based acreage estimates in its March Prospective Plantings report at the end of next month.
Additionally, the USDA won’t revisit these balance sheets until the May WASDE report.
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