Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar extended its gains overnight and has been advancing since hitting a four-year low in January. Crude oil is also up sharply and posted a fresh 8-month high. Stock futures are lower.
CORN
May corn edged higher on Wednesday following the selloff from the previous session. Futures gained a cent to close at $4.36 ¾. Open interest has been steady as traders roll positions over from the March contract.
The USDA’s Ag Outlook forum that kicked off this morning showed the agency’s outlook for 2026 corn plantings fell to 94 million acres, down nearly 5 percent from last year’s 98.8 million. That was the lower than average analyst guess of 95 million acres from a Bloomberg survey.
Corn ending stocks are also projected to tighten next season to 1.837 billion bushels, down 13.6 percent from the current carryout forecast.
Scattered showers are expected to continue in Central Brazil, favoring the developing Safrinha corn crop.
SOYBEANS
Another steady finish to soybeans on Wednesday despite a larger trading day. May soybeans finished 0.25 cents higher to close at $11.49. Futures have been largely consolidating since hitting a three-month high last week.
Soybean oil futures have been leading the way to contract highs on expectations of favorable biofuel quotas from the EPA. Those finalized mandates are expected to be released in the near future.
The EPA signaled in a proposal last year that it would significantly raise biomass diesel blending quotas, heavily favoring domestic soybean oil usage.
The USDA’s commodity outlook showed a 4.7 percent increase in 2026 soybean plantings to 85 million acres. The estimate aligned with the average analyst guess. Higher acreage is expected to raise the ending stocks slightly compared to the current season.
WHEAT
Wheat futures continued to lead the grain complex this week. May Chicago wheat traded another 10 cents higher on Wednesday to close at $5.52 ½. Positive momentum continued overnight amid weather and geopolitical risks.
Prices were contained by the 200-day moving average just above $5.60. That level could continue to contain prices if bullish news fails to take hold.
Warmer weather and high winds are expected for much of the Central and Southern Plains, increasing fire risks.
Peace talks fell through between Russia and Ukraine this week, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged war between the two countries that has already been going on for four years.
U.S. wheat acreage is expected to decline by 0.7 percent this year, with 2026 plantings at 45 million acres. That was higher than market expectations that had expected a slightly larger decline.
The International Grains Council lowered its 2025/26 global wheat stockpile estimate to 282 MMT, down 1 MMT from the previous estimate. The IGC’s initial 2026/27 forecast is calling for a slightly tighter balance sheet due to reduced harvests and higher grain consumption.
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