Grains and oilseeds are lower on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher. Crude oil is steady following Thursday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are slightly lower after plunging yesterday.
CORN
March corn futures posted modest gains on Thursday, rising 3.75 cents to close at $4.31 ¼ a bushel. May corn futures have been showing more life with open interest and volume rising substantially with this week’s gains.
Lawmakers are still working on a solution to push year-round sales of E15 through Congress. While this would be good for corn demand, ethanol production has been able to grow without the help of E15, largely due to exports. Higher blends in the U.S. would likely shift supplies back to the domestic market.
One more note on the February WASDE and U.S. corn demand: As the USDA raised corn exports by 100 million bushels, it also lowered Ukraine’s corn export forecast. U.S. corn prices have been the most competitive for much of the past year, and that has likely been taking a larger piece of the export pie from other countries.
SOYBEANS
The short squeeze in the soybean market continued again on Thursday, with March prices rising 3.25 cents to $11.37 ¼ a bushel. Prices briefly traded above last week’s highs. There may be some profit-taking to close the week after such a strong rally.
The soybean market seems to be more confident of higher demand for exports and domestic crushings. Last week’s news about China potentially buying more U.S. soy and the 45Z announcement continued to shake out shorts this week.
Soybean oil prices are lower to start this morning, but the market likely remains optimistic that the recent trade deal with India could spur more exports to the country. India has been increasing its imports of U.S. soyoil due to tightening palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia.
Attention is shifting to next week’s Ag Outlook Forum and what the agency will initially predict for acres this season.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat was the clear leader of the grains again on Thursday after the March contract traded 15.25 cents higher to close at $5.52 ¼. Futures posted a strong close above the 100-day moving average for a second session.
Speculative short-covering appears to be dominating this week’s trade. Prices traded up to resistance levels, including the 200-day moving average.
Wheat production in Western Australia totaled 13.3 MMT, the second-highest on record, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia.
Ukraine’s wheat exports for the first half of the 2025/26 season are running 20 percent behind a year ago. Much of that is because of higher tariffs for products shipped to the EU.
FranceAgriMer cuts non-EU soft wheat export forecast by 300,000 tons due to increased competition from Argentina.
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